Market Outlook for January 27, 2012

By Compass Global Markets on Jan 27, 2012 02:47:42 GMT

Recap of the Latest Global News By Cory Vi & Andrew Su on Jan 27, 2012 In a week that the Federal Reserve announced it would keep interest rates low through till at least 2014 and Bernanke said that policymakers are considering further bond purchases to boost growth, markets continued to celebrate as it appears [...]

Brent oil rises amid Iran uncertainty

Posted on Jan 28, 2012 12:38:00 GMT 12:38 AM | Originally posted at The Age

…raised their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options positions in the week to January 24 to the highest level since November, data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. The Bayway news sent gasoline barge prices higher in…

• Ford losses in Europe almost quadruple
  Posted on Jan 28, 2012 12:35:00 GMT 12:35 AM | Originally posted at Irish Times
• Some G20 countries soften stance on Europe – sources
  Posted on Jan 28, 2012 12:26:00 GMT 12:26 AM | Originally posted at Reuters Mobile
• Gold traders bullish for 4th consecutive week; expect bull run to extend
  Posted on Jan 28, 2012 12:26:00 GMT 12:26 AM | Originally posted at Economic Times

Market Expectations

By Compass Global Markets on Jan 27, 2012 03:08:05 GMT

EUR/USD spent the day consolidating after peaking at 1.3183 yesterday.  If the technical traders are right, we may have seen the high for a long while and the completion of a technical retracement which began from 1.2624 (16 Jan).  However we’re not totally convinced and we cautiously think 1.3244 may be the top if 1.2950 holds.  Fundamentally, the latest on the Greek saga is that the Institute of International Finance (which represents the creditors) and Greek officials continue negotiations and may well continue over the weekend. On the radar for the rest of the day is US Gross Domestic Product Q4 (annualised), GDP Price Index (1:.30 GMT) and the University of Michigan Confidence survey (14:55GMT). For US GDP, the market is expecting 3% (last 1.8%) and the Price index is expecting 1.9% (last 2.6%). For the U. Mich survey market expects no change from previous 74.  From now until the end of the New York session we see a range of 1.3023 – 1.3170.

What are the ins and outs of a Roll-Over?

A rollover is the interest paid or earned on an open position held past the close of the NY trading at 1700 ET (5:00PM ET) reflecting the interest rate differential between the two currencies.

The spot forex market is traded on a two-day value date. For example, for trades executed on Monday, the value date is Wednesday. However, if a position is opened on Monday and held overnight (remains open after 1700 ET), the value date is now Thursday. The exception is a position opened and held overnight on Wednesday. The normal value date would be Saturday; because banks are closed on Saturday the value date is actually the following Monday. Due to the weekend, positions held overnight on Wednesday incur or earn an extra two days of interest. Trades with a value date that falls on a holiday will also incur or earn additional interest.