Today we had the ECB Meeting, in which the European Central bank raised rates from 1.25% to 1.50%; this was followed by Trichet’s Conference where he sounded hawkish; then ADP employment report for the US came out better than expected. These were the risk events surrounding the EUR/USD. It has been very bearish since the beginning of the week, but after today’s risk events, a sharp reversal is taking place. There is a scenario where we completed a bearish impulse wave, so another bearish one is likely to follow after a corrective rally. Let’s take a look at the chart to see how we can expect this development as well as other scenarios that can occur.

This is a bearish outlook for the EUR/USD after a short-term bullish outlook. The daily chart seen in the video shows bullish outlook in the larger perspective.  

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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

AUD/USD

- The AUD/USD is consolidating after a strong swing from 1.0440 area that was developed in a 5-wave or motive-wave manner.
- The RSI shows the bullish momentum intact.
- It looks like we completed a 3-swing correction and could be ready for a bullish continuation.
- The employment data in the Asian session beat expectations, cranking out 23.4K jobs instead of the expected 15.2K.
- However, if we find resistance, then a break back below 1.0733, we are still in consolidation, although the bullish continuation scenario is still valid.
- This scenario would be a short-term flat scenario, but that’s not what the title is alluding to.
Larger perspective flat correction scenario:
- If however, the market breaks above the 1.0790 high, and stays above 1.0760, we are very likely in a bullish attempt towards 1.0888 and than the 1.1010 record high.
- The daily chart shows the market after completing a double 5 corrective structure. The market is not in a zig zag, and if the short-term bullish continuation materializes, it is more likely to be in a flat.
- In the flat consolidation scenario, we can have a rally towards 1.1010, record high, before another corrective wave down (expected to be a 5-wave decline to end a flat.)
- Of course there is still a chance for the bullish continuation scenario if the market breaks above 1.1010. However, the growth environment in China, the flattening of gold which has traditional correlation with gold, and Australia’s own growth slowdown fosters an environment for consolidation.
- So if the market breaks 1.1010, look for a “clear-out” and a return towards 1.0760. Then a break back below this middle pivot, targets 1.0440.

Is the Aussie ready for another rally attempt in Q3? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

Prev: Short-term Elliott Wave Count, Double 3′s (71)

GBP/JPY

- GBP/JPY has formed a double bottom in the short-term.
- The RSI is pushing above 60, after simply kissing 30, suggesting a break of a weak bearish momentum.
- Note also that the market bounced off of 129.00, near the 78.6% retracement, holding off a bearish attempt. Now, if the market holds off another bearish attempt and supports it above 129.60, we should confirm the double bottom, for at least a short-term bullish attempt.
- The very short-term target for this rally is near the 130.84 high.
- Looking at the 4H chart, we could have completed an ABC correction. If the failed bearish attempt was a bear trap, and wave X, we can see another ABC correction or any other corrective structure.
- A break above the 130.84 and the 200SMA in the 4H chart, as well as the declining trendline seen in the daily chart near 131.25, opens up the medium term target of 135.00.
- A conservative target would be near the 132.50, 61.8% retracement level. Then if the market can hold above 130.80, we are likely to find  a more aggressive rally towards 135.00.
- Otherwise, if the market still falls back below 130.80, and more importantly 130.00, we would be setting up for a bearish attempt in the medium term with downside risk to 126.50.

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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

EUR/GBP Confirms Channel Breakout; Break Below 0.8950 Opens Up 0.8850 (7/6)

EUR/GBP

- The 4H chart for the EUR/GBP shows a decisive break below the 0.8950 support pivot, now targeting 0.8845-0.8850.
- The risk event of the ECB meeting and Trichet’s conference is not hampering the euro’s decline.
- The BoE held rates at 0.50%, and did not stir any market movements neither, so the prior dynamic continues.
- The RSI is breaking below 40, so the bullish momentum is killed. A break below 30 reflects the short-term bearish momentum, but the fact it has been tagging 30 and 70 suggests a more ranging momentum with bullish bias as the market travels in a rising channel, and is above the 200SMA in the 4H chart.
- The 0.8845-0.8850 support is a cluster of 200SMA, rising channel, and the neckline for an inverted head and shoulder created in mid-June.
- A break below this suggests EUR/GBP has topped off, and the bearish mode can begin.

Are jitters about the debt crisis and possible contagion still haunting the EUR? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

EUR/USD Plunges after Topping Confirmation…(7/6)

EUR/USD

- The ECB raised interest rates as expected from 1.25% to 1.50%.
- Although there was some consolidation in late US and into Asian session, the EUR/USD market started to continue south in European trading breaking below a rising wedge consolidation.
- This decline did not stop when the ECB raised rates. It will take some extreme hawkish statement or optimism from Trichet’s conference to lift the EUR/USD.
- If the market stays below 1.4330, it is likely to continue in the triangle scenario, which has support near 1.4180.
- This is not too far from the current 1.4250 area.
- A break below 1.4180 first targets 1.40. Below that there is the 1.3850 (200SMA) support, and very critical channel support closer to 1.3750.
- These bearish targets reflect a continuing concern for debt problems in the Eurozone. While the reality is that the problems are far from resolved, the threat of contagion has already been considered. Could it be possible that the market is getting exhausted from the debt crisis? If this is true, the triangle should hold.

Is the market getting debt crisis fatigue as Bloomberg’s Tom Keene put it? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

AUD/JPY

- The AUD/JPY broke above a declining trendline last week, and has stalled since the beginning of this week.
- Note the RSI in the chart. The reading broke above 70 after multiple fails to break below and establish bearish momentum. Instead we have bullish momentum, and if the RSI remains above 40, we can maintain the bullish scenario.
- The pullback can be expected to head towards 85.65, 50% retracement, near the 200SMA(closer to 85.75).
- Employment data for Australia is set to be released 9:30PM EDT. An addition of 15.2K jobs is expected for July after a slow 7.8K change the prior month. A non-disappointing to better than expected release should help AUD/JPY confirm the bullish breakout.
- Also note the 14-period ATR showing that the market has been drying out in volatility. A push higher in volatility should help confirm the breakout as it reflects a market returning from a period of indecision to a more trending, and directional period.

- Downside risk: If after the release the market falls below 85.40, the bullish scenario is in trouble.

- Otherwise, we should be heading towards the highs between 89.50-90.00 seen in the daily chart.
- The daily chart also shows a that the bullish momentum is maintained with the RSI reading staying above 40. If it cracks the 60 level which its testing now, the bullish continuation scenario is likely.
- The fact that the market remains above a rising 200SMA also suggests a bullish bias.
- With the technical picture looking bullish, a non-disappointing employment data should help confirm the bullish intent, again unless we see a violation of 85.40.

Does the AUD/JPY need better than expected data to pave way for extension of the bullish breakout? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

AUD/USD

- The AUD/USD is attempting a correction in the short-term. So far this has taken shape of a head and shoulder with a declining neckline, so it will be hard to determine a breakout below the pattern.
- Often head and shoulder patterns fail to provide topping except for the very short-term, in which the pattern develops and gives only an initial breakout swing.
- Observing the AUD/USD in the 4H chart, we see that the bearish scenario should be limited after such a bullish setup. The RSI broke above 70 after failing to break below 30 many times. Market is trading above a 200SMA that has turned its slope almost upwards. The rally from last week broke above a correction pattern, and into an impulse 5-wave structure.
- These are reasons we should look for support above 1.06, which is the 50% retracement level. The 4H chart above shows a swing projection to complete a zig zag towards this.
- A failure of a rally either now, or from near 1.06 to break back above 1.0730 suggests we should consider a more significant correction below 1.06. A near-term retracement target would be 1.0550 (61.8% retracement). A rally above 1.0730 suggests we can be in a flat and not a zig zag.
- A break above 1.08 without a break below 1.06 is a strong sign that there is a bullish outlook in the short to medium term towards the 1.1010 record high.
- The daily chart also shows that we have completed a double 5′s corrective structure, and is ready for the bullish continuation scenario after our current short-term bearish attempt.

Is the Aussie ready for another rally attempt in Q3? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

Prev: Stalking GBP/USD in a Rising Wedge (7/5)

GBP/USD

- The rising wedge had a wave (e) failure before falling below the wedge support.
- Price action attempted cleared out the 1.61 resistance before the market rejected the rally attempt.
- GBP/USD remains bearish as the RSI reading in the 4H chart failed to sustain the break above 60. With the RSI breaking back below 40, and heading towards 30, bearish momentum is being re-established.
- The daily chart shows the breaking below the 200SMA after breaking below a projected support. There is short-term bearish momentum, but not in the medium and long term, which actually has a slight bullish bias (The RSI reading in the daily chart has been able to tag 70, but not 30).
-We have a wave equality target at 1.5850, and a 61.8% retracement target at 1.5880.
- If this short-term and scenario materializes, then a subsequent rally fails to break back above the 200SMA, we can see some bearish attempts towards 1.5665, 78.6% retracement level.
- Otherwise, get ready for the market to find support near 1.5850 after an AB=CD retracement.

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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

Prev: EUR/GBP Observes Bearish Divergence after Wave Equality (7/1)

EUR/GBP

- The EUR/GBP is seen breaking below a rising channel support in the 4H chart. It has also provided a pullback that respected the broken channel support as resistance.
- The RSI reading is falling below 40, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum.
- The decline is cracking a pivot at 0.8950, and testing 61.8% retracement level near 0.8938. If the market clears these lows, and a subsequent rally fails to break above the recent consolidation (staying below 0.90 preferably), the bearish scenario has the next support 0.8845 – 0.8850. Note in the 4H chart that this is a pivot reflecting a neckline for an inverted head and shoulder. This is also where the 200SMA reside. There is also a projected rising support around this area.
- The daily chart shows that the 0.8850 area is also 61.8% retracement of the bullish swing from 0.8720-0.9083.
- A break below the 0.8850 support opens up 0.88 (78.6%), then 0.8720 pivot in the short-term. The medium to long term outlook remains bullish until a break below 0.8720, which would show flattening and a range-bound market.

Does the short-term technical picture somewhat reflect the larger perspective when it comes to channel trading? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

EUR/USD Still Bullish after ABC Correction; 1.4450 is critical (7/5)

EUR/USD

- As the market trades into the European session, EUR/USD is being rocked.
- The initial stage of the triangle scenario appears to be taking shape.
- The 1H chart shows the market after a strong break below 1.4450 was then followed by a pullback. The pullback respected the previous consolidation area, and fell sharply back below the 200SMA to confirm the topping attempt.
- The 1H RSI reading  shows the market establishing bearish momentum dipping below 30.
- The daily chart shows the triangle scenario developing. The middle of this triangle is near 1.4330.
- If the 1.4330 pivot is broken, the triangle support is projected conservatively to about 1.4250, and aggressively towards 1.42.
- By that time, we should have completed a 5-wave triangle, ready for a breakout to the upside, following the direction of our previous trend.

Are jitters about the debt crisis and possible contagion still haunting the EUR? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

EUR/CHF

- Price action in the 4H chart shows the EUR/CHF in a bearish swing after a strong bullish one that came off of a record low.
- The RSI reading in the 4H chart was impressive breaking far above 70. This is a possible clue that the market will defend the 1.18 area again if bears bring it there.
- However, if this reading breaks back below 40, the momentum is no longer bullish and the market is likely turning range-bound with slight bearish bias.
- There is a concept call the rule of 3rds for range trading: Trading in a range should be limited in the upper 3rd (short) or bottom 3rd (long).
- The 4H chart shows a market breaking back below the 200SMA failing to establish a clear bullish attempt. The moving average is still sloped down, although slightly flattening.
- There is no significant sign of a bullish market until we can break above 1.24.
- In the mean time, if the market gets to 1.1965, we can see a minor bullish attempt back towards 1.2070, roughly the  middle of the range. If that breaks, the market has downside risk towards 1.18. Here, we might expect some support as well back towards the middle of the range.
- As it should be clear now, while the market is consolidating between 1.18 and 1.2345, we can expect the tendency of an overbought or oversold market to return towards the middle, near 1.2070 (50% retracement).

Can the EUR/CHF establish a range or will the bearish mode continue? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

USD/CAD

- The USD/CAD is seen in the 1H chart breaking below a rising channel.
- Note that the RSI never sustained a break above 60. If it falls back below 40, it is a good sign that the bearish momentum is returning, as it never left.
- The RSI reading also shows a negative reversal, where there is a higher RSI high, but a lower price high, suggesting a swing projection towards 0.9563 in the very short-term (1-2 days). A break back below 0.96 is strong evidence for this outlook.
- On the upside, a break above 0.97 gives trouble to the bearish outlook, and give way to more sideways action.
- The daily chart shows a sharp decline that started last week after being rejected by the 200SMA in the daily chart. The sharp reversal reflected weak bullish intention.
- The RSI in the daily reading is kept below 60, a sign of bearish momentum maintenance.
- With bearish momentum, strong bearish price action, and weak bullish consolidation in the current channel (flag), suggests that a break below consolidation  could extend lower that the 0.9563 swing projection. 0.9512, then 0.9445 are the lower pivots for the short-term bearish scenario.
- The medium term bearish targets (for a bear trend going forwards 2-3 weeks) are 0.9320, then the 0.9056 2007 low.

These charts use the RSI indicator. Do you use any oscillators to assess the momentum of the market? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

Gold (XAU/USD)

- Starting with the daily chart, gold is seen in a sideways market after a bullish start to the year ended in April.
- The market tested the range support near 1475, and is now showing some strength.
- Note that the RSI failed to sustain a break below 40, so the bullish momentum in 2011 has not been killed. Though, we know from price action that the market has indeed flattened into a range.
- There is a middle pivot to this range near 1511. A break above this and above the near-term high closer to 1515, we are opening up the bullish target of 1550, resistance of a projected range.
- The 4H chart shows the market now knowing on our middle pivot resistance area.
- Note also a minor resistance near 1525 (200SMA and a previous pivot). If the can break, then find support above 1525, and the 4H RSI rises above 70, we are very likely heading towards 1550.

Will return to demand for safety boost gold, or will there be a flow out of gold ones global investments become attractive. What will bring about this dynamic? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

GBP/AUD

- We had a relatively dovish RBA meeting in the Asian session which paved way for some AUD-weakness.
- In the GBP/AUD, we see a clear double bottom in the 4H chart.
- The rally coming out of this double bottom can be projected with the width of the double bottom, which points towards the 1.5140-1.5150 area. This is coincident with an important pivot and is near the 61.8% retracement level.
- Strong bullish candles suggests a rally in the short-term, but in the context of a declining channel. The RSI in the 4H chart is still below 60, maintaining bearish momentum.
- The daily chart shows that we recently had a break out to the downside, with a pattern breakout projection to almost 1.4550.
- If the market does break above 1.5150, we still have a critical pivot at 1.52. A break above this suggests the breakout could be a clear-out, and strength towards 1.5530 would become the short-term bullish outlook.

Was the recent dovish RBA meeting enough to finally open cracks in the mighty Aussie? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

GBP/USD: Clear-out and Negative Reversal Signal Targets 1.58 (6/30)

GBP/USD

- The swing projection towards 1.58 did not follow through. In fact after the bearish candle that suggested the bearish continuation, the market instead continued to rally .
- The bullish attempt is now shaping a rising wedge. This is just one correction scenario. The current bullish candle does suggest further bullish correction to complete the 5th wave or wave (e) of the  wedge.
- The RSI reading in the 4H chart is still below 60, so the market still has the bearish momentum despite a week-long consolidation.
- The daily chart shows the market in a pullback to test the broken trendline. The bearish scenario towards at least 1.5850-1.5880 and possible down towards 1.5665 is still valid. A break back below 1.5975 suggests the bearish continuation to be in development.
- A strong bearish candle in the daily chart should also be a clue to suggest a swing to the downside.
- However, a break back above 1.6263 should start the consideration of a bullish outlook towards 1.6515 and then the 1.6740 highs.

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Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

Prev: EUR/USD’s Triangle Scenario Based on Elliott Wave Structure (7/1)

EUR/USD

- The EUR/USD is seen to have completed an ABC correction,  with roughly a C=A relationship.
-  The 1H chart shows a EUR/USD now consolidating. Note the RSI still above 40, a sign that the bullish momentum remains.
- Price action also remains above an important pivot at 1.4450. A break below that establishes a top for a possibly further bearish correction.
- If this week’s bearish price action follows through, we may be in a triangle scenario seen in the daily chart.
- Note that price action is showing an engulfing candle after a doji, a reversal signal.
- In this bearish scenario, a very short-term target is the 1.4320-1.4340 (middle of triangle) and a pivot area. The triangle support target is at about 1.4250-1.4260.
- Also keep in mind the sentiment factors around the EUR and USD this week.

Are the debt crisis and other euro-negative headlines creeping back in, or will hawkish interest rate prospects dominate? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

Prev: EUR/GBP in a Double Top as Greek Austerity Vote Passes (6/29)

EUR/GBP

- The EUR/GBP completed a wave equality projection near 0.9075.
- At the end of this swing projection, the market is now showing bearish divergence with the RSI in both the 1H and 4H charts.
- The 0.9015 level is the near-term support. A break targets 0.8966-0.8950.
- If the market can not hold off a correction above 0.8950, the bullish scenario can still exist with the market staying above the 0.8845-0.8850 support area.
- The daily chart shows the bullish scenario. Note that we also just completed a swing projection in the medium term. However a larger swing projection targeting 0.9150 (also 2010 high) has yet to be satisfied.
- Further evidence of the bullish scenario is the RSI’s inability to break back below 40, and the current attempt to break above 70. 200SMA is turning up and the market is now picking up speed towards the upside.

Is the market now focusing on interest rate policies now that the Greek crisis seem to be in the rear mirror? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

USD/CHF Wedges Out New Record Lows at 0.83 (6/28)

USD/CHF

- Since hammering out another fresh record low, the USD/CHF failed to sustain the breakout to the downside to a recently projected range.
- The 4H chart shows the market breaking above a wedge, with the origin of the wedge near 0.8550-0.8555.
- We might see some very short-term correction after a 5-wave rally seen in the 4H chart. If the market holds above 0.84, we have further evidence of bottoming.
- Other evidence that this is a clear-out which actually builds strength despite making a fresh low, is that the RSI reading in the 4H chart failed to break below 30.
- Now the RSI reading is about to break 70. This shows a shift of momentum to the upside, at least in the short to medium term.
- The technical picture seen in the daily chart shows a bearish market, as the RSI reading remains below 60 and the market is trading under the 200SMA.
- There is however a possibility that the market is completing a large wedge pattern. (Lot’s of wedging action in USD/CHF).
- A break back above the 0.8555 would be the first sign of a bottoming. Another would be the RSI(14-period) reading in the daily chart breaking above 60.

Is the USD/CHF in a breakout or clear-out? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

EUR?USD Channeling Upwards; Now Testing Triangle Resistance (6/30)

EUR/USD

- The EUR/USD is bending out of a rising channel into another flatter one. Notice also the bearish divergence with the RSI.
- Conventional count should be 5-waves, the current decline reflects the 4th. Therefore, it is possible that one more rally is follow before a topping occurs.
- Sometimes this 5th is a failure, sometimes its a throw-over.
- If there is topping, it does not mean there is reversal. A very short-term target is limited to the pivot near 1.4445.
- A break below that then opens up the short-term target in the 1.43300-1.4350 area.
- The 4H chart shows the market testing a declining trendline at 78.6% retracement.
- Note that in the medium term the momentum reflects a ranging market as every test of O/B levels (70, 30) resulted in a reversal. The 4H RSI reading just kissed 70. Following the cyclical nature of the market, we are at a price level and time when a reversal is ready.
- The daily chart shows a triangle forming, and the anticipated 5-wave scenario, which suggests we have another leg down before we are ready to break out of this triangle to the upside. The support for the triangle is 1.4250-1.4260.
- The technical picture in the daily chart still reflects an intact bullish mode, with the market above 200SMA, and RSI reading staying above 40.

Is the market really convinced that the Greek debt crisis is resolved? Is risk sentiment back, or are we still waddling back and forth? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.

GBP/USD Testing the 1.6050-1.6090 Resistance Zone

GBP/USD

- There was a strong attack at the 1.6090-1.61 resistance area in the GBP/USD. This is also coincident with a declining channel resistance.
- A break above was weak, and capped at 1.6118.
- The bearish candle that followed was an sharp engulfing type, signaling that the breakout was actually a clear-out. This shows strength in the opposite direction of the breakout.
- Also, you can observe a negative reversal signal in the RSI. It did not break above 60 (or barely cracked it), but is higher than a previous RSI high – while the corresponding price highs got lower. This suggests a swing projection towards 1.58.

Is there still anticipation for easing (QE) in the US? Subscribe and become a member to share your views and join live discussions as well as webinars about the markets.

Fan Yang CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FXTimes

Information and opinions contained in this report are for educational purposes only and do not constitute an investment advice. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. FXTimes will not accept liability for any loss of profit or damage which may arise directly, indirectly or consequently from use of or reliance on the trading set-ups or any accompanying chart analysis.