In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    USD- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions in the services industries: agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade, Mon., Dec. 5, 10:00 am, ET.

In light of the stronger-than-expected manufacturing index, the U.S. services industry activity is also forecast to expand for another month with an index reading of 54.0 in November from 52.9 in October.

2.    AUD- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Announcement, Mon., Dec. 5, 10:30 pm, ET.

The latest economic data from “down under” proved that the Australian “miracle economy” is not immune from the global slowdown, which coupled with easing inflationary pressures has raised the odds of another 25bps rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia to 4.25% from the current 4.50% level. A rate cut combined with risk aversion could become the formula for Australian dollar weakness.

3.    CHF- Swiss CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Swiss National Bank, Tues., Dec. 6, 3:15 am, ET.

Deflation has once again become a threat as the Swiss inflation gauge unexpectedly dropped below zero in October. With forecasts pointing to another decline at -0.3% y/y in November and the government “examining feasibility” on measures to deal with the strong currency, the Swiss National Bank might be forced into stepping up its efforts to weaken the franc. Although the next move by the central bank is still a bit of a “mystery”, the odds that we could witness a historic decision by the SNB to raise the EUR/CHF floor from 1.20 up to 1.25, or even to 1.30, are rising exponentially.

4.    EUR- Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Dec. 6, 5:00 am, ET.

The revised reading of the Q3 GDP is expected to confirm that the Euro-zone economy is losing steam, growing by only 0.2% q/q in the third quarter, same as the 0.2% q/q reading in the second quarter of 2011, and less than the 0.8% q/q increase in Q1 2011.

5.    CAD- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement, Tues., Dec. 6, 9:00 am, ET.

Acknowledging that the global economy has “slowed markedly” with “significantly less favorable external environment affecting Canada”, the Bank of Canada is not expected to make any changes to its existing accommodative monetary policy and would be likely to keep the benchmark interest rate at the current 1.0% level.

6.    AUD- Australia GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Dec. 6, 7:30 pm, ET.

Despite of the anticipated rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Q3 GDP might lend some support to the Aussie with forecasts pointing to a stronger 2.3% y/y growth in the third quarter of 2011, compared with 1.4% y/y in Q2 2010. On the other hand, quarter-on-quarter growth is forecast to be unchanged at 1.2% q/q in Q3, same as the 1.2% q/q growth in the second quarter.

7.    NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Dec. 7, 3:00 pm, ET.

Becoming the most surprisingly hawkish of all major central banks, it would be interesting to find out if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand might change its position as a result of the global slowdown. The bank is expected to keep rates at the current 2.50% level for another month, but the Kiwi dollar could get a boost from any hints that the bank is still not steering away from a future rate hike.

8.    GBP- Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Dec. 8, 7:00 am, ET.

With the largest U.K. trading partner, the Euro-zone, slowing and the EU debt crisis far from over, the odds are rising that the Bank of England’s policy makers could be prompted to increase the size of the Asset Purchase Program beyond the current 275 billon pounds; however, they might decide to wait until 2012 to do so. In the meantime, the likely outcome of the MPC meeting would be to keep the benchmark rate at its record low 0.5% level and to leave the door open to additional quantitative easing if conditions deteriorate. As a result, the GBP should continue to be confined in its current $1.50’s range, unless the EU debt crisis take a turn for the worst and massive risk aversion sends the sterling into the $1.40’s against the U.S. dollar.

9.    EUR- European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Dec. 8, 7:45 am, ET.

As many economists lower their Euro-zone growth forecasts and the ECB President warns about the potential for a “mild recession” on the horizon, it shouldn’t be a surprise to see the European Central Bank producing another 25bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting in an effort to avoid a double dip. Navigating through a sea of uncertainty, while at the same time trying to fend off political pressure to become the “lender of last resort”, the ECB might end up giving up the resistance and turning the printing presses on if the EU debt crisis escalates with borrowing costs rising to unsustainable levels. It is hard to see such scenario as a EUR positive…

10.    EUR- EU Summit of leaders of the 27 countries in the European Union, Fri., Dec. 9, all day event.

The outcomes of the EU summits in the last couple of years have a common thread- they all tend to remind us of Naked Eyes’ hit from 1983, as the markets around the world expect to see comprehensive solutions to contain the euro-area sovereign debt crisis but all they get are “promises, promises”. Will it be the same this time? Despite of the previous summit’s glimpse of hope that EU leaders have finally realized the seriousness of the situation after about 2 years since the beginning of the crisis, there are many murky details in the recently proposed strategies, some of them named “yesterday’s solutions” by Financial Times. The list of unanswered questions includes: how will EFSF be leveraged; can politicians effectively persuade the ECB to stand as a “lender of last resort”, or will that role be given to the IMF, or a newly-created European Monetary Fund; will EU members be willing to “sacrifice sovereignty in exchange for providing the economic and monetary union with a structural credibility”? Ahead of the last summit, “better late than never” optimism helped the euro register its biggest rally since March, 2009. Although another “hope rally” in the days leading to this summit would be sure to give the single currency a boost, the pressures on the euro could quickly mount if EU leaders fail to deliver the concrete and bold measures needed to win the debt crisis battle.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, Mon., Nov. 21, 10:00 am, ET.

Dependent on a stronger economy and a significant decline in unemployment, the U.S. housing market is expected to continue to show signs of weakness with sales of existing homes forecast to slow to 4.85M in October from 4.91M in September.

2.    USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Tues., Nov. 22, 8:30 am, ET.

The revised estimate of the U.S. Q3 GDP is forecast to maintain the optimistic outlook and rule out double dip expectations by confirming that the U.S. economy grew by 2.5% q/a in the third quarter, compared with 1.3% q/a in Q2 2011.

3.    USD- U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes, a detailed record of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy, inflation and the Fed’s future monetary policy, Tues., Nov. 22, 2:00 pm, ET.

With the Fed clearly staying the course, the minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting would be likely to serve as a reminder of the Fed’s cautious outlook on the economy and the U.S. central bank’s commitment to continue its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, while still keeping the QE3 door open.

4.    EUR- Euro-zone Composite PMI- Purchasing Managers Index, a leading indicator of economic activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, Wed., Nov. 23, 4:00 am, ET.

Many economists already predict a mild recession in the Euro-zone and the Composite PMI could be in line with these expectations as the manufacturing and services indexes fall further in contraction territory- manufacturing to 46.5 in November from 47.1 in October, and services to 46.1 in November compared with 46.4 in the previous month.

5.    GBP- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes, a comprehensive report of the central bank’s meeting that could provide an outlook on the economy, interest rates and future monetary policy, Wed., Nov. 23, 4:30 am, ET.

Two weeks after the Bank of England’s decision to keep rates at their record low 0.5% level since March 2009 for another month in November, the minutes could confirm that the Monetary Policy Committee is open to the idea of more quantitative easing and additional expansion of its Asset Purchase Program in upcoming months. Expectations of such monetary policy should weigh on the GBP which is also not immuned from risk aversion flows.

6.    USD- U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index- a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve, Wed., Nov. 23, 8:30 am, ET.

Released along with the U.S. Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders (with jobless claims forecast to decline for another week to 387K from 388K and orders for durable goods to drop by 0.7% m/m in October from -0.6 m/m in September), the U.S. consumer spending is forecast to rise by 0.4% m/m from 0.6% m/m and personal income to increase by 0.3% m/m in October from 0.1% m/m in the previous month. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Index, is expected to show inflationary pressures inching higher by 0.2% m/m in October from the flat 0% m/m reading in September.

7.    USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Wed., Nov. 23, 9:55 am, ET.

Ending the weekly sequence of mixed U.S. economic data on a high note ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, the consumer sentiment index for November is forecast to bring another month of improvement with a reading of 64.6, compared with 60.9 in October.

8.    EUR- Germany IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, Thurs., Nov. 24, 4:00 am, ET.

Following the drop in the ZEW sentiment index, the German IFO index is forecast to point to a gloomy business climate outlook with a reading of 105.5 in November from 106.4 in October.

9.    GBP- U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Thurs., Nov. 24, 4:30 am, ET.

The second reading of the U.K. GDP for the third quarter of 2011 is forecast to be in line with the preliminary estimate of 0.5% q/q growth compared with 0.2% q/q in the second quarter.

10.    JPY- Japan CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Thurs., Nov. 24, 6:30 pm, ET.

Inflationary pressures in Japan are expected to register a slight 0.1% m/m drop in October from 0.2% in September, but when it comes to Japan, a lot more interesting is the situation with the yen and its persistent strength. With the U.S. dollar giving away almost all of its post-intervention gains and approaching previous record lows, it would be prudent to place the yen on an intervention watch once again.   

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    JPY- Japan GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Sun., Nov. 13, 6:50 pm, ET.

After registering its third recession in a decade and contracting by 0.9% q/q in Q1 and 0.5% q/q in Q2, the preliminary GDP estimate for the third quarter of 2011 is forecast to show the Japanese economy returning to growth by up to 1.5% q/q in Q3 2011. More upbeat GDP report and safe-haven flows should keep the yen supported in spite of the desire of the Japanese authorities to see their currency weaken.

2.    GBP- U.K. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of England, Tues., Nov. 15, 4:30 am, ET.

The September spike in inflationary pressures to 5.2% y/y could be followed by a slight pullback to 5.1% y/y in October. Stubbornly high inflation, however, has not prevented the Bank of England from continuing its accommodative monetary policy and doing more quantitative easing.

3.    EUR- Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Nov. 15, 5:00 am, ET.

More signs of deteriorating conditions in the Euro-zone’s economy might come from the third quarter GDP estimate with forecasts pointing to only 0.2% q/q growth- same as the 0.2% q/q reading in Q2 2011. The GDP report will be released at the same time as the German ZEW economic sentiment index which is also expected to be weak with the index dropping to -52.1 in October from -48.3 in October.

4.    USD- U.S. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments, Tues., Nov. 15, 8:30 am, ET.

A lot is riding on this report as consumer spending is a major part of the U.S. economy, but retail sales might not demonstrate a lot of strength with a smaller increase by 0.2% m/m in October from 1.1% in September. However, the slowdown could be temporary as sales at retail establishments would likely see a boost in the upcoming months due to the holiday shopping season.

5.    JPY- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Nov. 16, around 12:00 am, ET.

With the U.S. dollar slowly but surely erasing a big chunk of its post-intervention gains against the yen, it would be interesting to find out if the Bank of Japan is ready to stand against the tide of persistent yen strength. This is provided that they haven’t intervened by the time the meeting takes place, as another intervention remains a likely event.

6.    GBP- U.K. Jobless Claims and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Nov. 16, 4:30 am, ET.

The U.K. employment data followed an hour later by the Bank of England inflation report could become a couple of back-to-back risk events for the pound. Forecasts point to an increase in the amount of jobless claims by up to 20,000 in October from 17,500 in September, while the unemployment rate inches higher to 8.2% from a previous reading of 8.1%.

7.    EUR- Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation, Wed., Nov. 16, 5:00 am, ET.

The European Central Bank’s preferred inflation gauge is forecast to stay unchanged at 3.0% y/y in October- same as the 3.0% y/y reading in September, but month-over-month the index is expected to pull back with a smaller 0.3% m/m increase in October from 0.8% in the previous month. Shifting monetary policy from maintaining price stability to pro-growth on the threat of a double dip in the economy could spell further ECB rate cuts.

8.    GBP- Bank of England Inflation Report, the bank’s official assessment and outlook on inflation, Wed., Nov. 16, 5:30 am, ET.

As the latest PPI report showed inflationary pressures coming off their recent highs, if the Bank of England offers a dovish outlook on inflation, there will be no urgency for the bank to start tightening monetary policy anytime soon. Lower inflation expectations and risk aversion could lead to some unwinding of long GBP positions.

9.    USD- U.S. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Wed., Nov. 16, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer prices in the United States could remain a non-issue for the Fed with forecasts expecting a flat 0% m/m reading in October from 0.3% m/m in September. Only a significant drop in unemployment and consistent improvement in the U.S. job and housing markets could change the Fed’s mind and its promise to keep rates “exceptionally low”. Until then, QE3 would not be completely out of the picture.

10.    USD- U.S. Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring construction of new residential properties, Thurs., Nov. 17, 8:30 am, ET.

Losing momentum after the jump to 658K in September, the U.S. housing starts are forecast to decline to 610K in October, while the building permits flatten in the 600K range.  

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    CHF- Swiss CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Swiss National Bank, Mon., Nov. 7, 3:15 am, ET.

The Swiss inflation gauge is forecast to increase by 0.3% m/m in October, same as the 0.3% m/m reading in September, while the yearly CPI measure remains near zero, at 0.5% y/y. With the euro breaking lower towards its recently established “floor” against the Swiss franc, the Swiss National Bank might need to refresh the market’s memory of its promise to do whatever it takes to defend the EUR/CHF 1.20 exchange rate level. Moreover, the SNB could even be prompted to raise the floor up to 1.30, especially if the “massively overvalued” franc and the risk of deflation continue to loom over the economy.

2.    EUR- Euro-zone Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments, Mon., Nov. 7, 5:00 am, ET.

In case the market decides to start paying attention to economic data rather than the headlines from Greece and other EU debt-ridden nations, the weakness in the Euro-zone economy is expected to continue with retail sales forecast to decline for another month by 0.2% m/m from the 0.3% m/m drop in the previous month.

3.    GBP- U.K. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Tues., Nov. 8, 4:30 am, ET.

With the Manufacturing PMI dipping below 50 into contraction territory, the U.K. industrial production is forecast to register an anemic increase by 0.1% m/m in September, compared with 0.2% m/m in August.

4.    CNY- China CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Tues., Nov. 8, 10:00 pm, ET.

Inflationary pressures in China are forecast to stage a larger decline to 5.4% y/y from 6.1% y/y in the previous month. Lower inflation could ease some of the concerns that the Chinese central bank may have lost its grip on inflation and could reduce the odds of more rate hikes by the PBOC. A decision by the Chinese central bank to refrain from raising the benchmark rate further could give the Chinese and the Australian economies a boost, and could lend support to the Australian dollar.

5.    NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Financial Stability Report on economic conditions, inflation and future monetary policy, Wed., Nov. 9, 4:00 pm, ET.

At its latest monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised the markets with its hawkish stance on inflation and the potential for rate hikes in the near future. The bank would probably echo the same sentiment in its financial stability report, which could help the New Zealand dollar attract some bids.

6.    AUD- Australia Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Nov. 9, 8:30 pm, ET.

The Australian labor market is expected to cool off with slower job creation of up to 10,000 new jobs added in October, compared with the 20,400 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate rises to 5.3% from 5.2% in the previous month. If coupled with more risk aversion, a weak jobs report could become a significant risk event for the Aussie dollar.

7.    GBP- Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Nov. 10, 7:00 am, ET.

When it comes to the Bank of England’s future monetary policy, the unknown is not whether the bank will change the benchmark rate from its record low 0.5% level, but rather if there will be an expansion or a reduction in the bank’s quantitative easing operations. Policy makers recently decided to expand the Asset Purchase Program beyond the 200 billon-pounds ceiling by another 75 billion pounds, however the latest minutes report stated that “depending on developments in the euro area and financial markets, the size of the stimulus could be adjusted in either direction”. Although it still may be a bit of a long shot, if EU leaders succeed to put out the fire from the debt crisis and the U.K. economy strengthens, the size of the Asset Purchase Program could be reduced, and it would not be surprising to see the GBP benefiting from such scenario.

8.    USD- U.S. Jobless Claims, an important gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Thurs., Nov. 10, 8:30 am, ET.

Breaching below the 400K mark to 397K, first-time applications for unemployment benefits are forecast to inch higher to 402K, still above 375K- the number estimated by economists to signal significant decline in unemployment.

9.    GBP- U.K. PPI- Producer Price Index, the main measure of wholesale inflation and a leading indicator of consumer price inflation, Fri., Nov. 11, 4:30 am, ET.

Despite of the recent rise in the CPI to 5.2% y/y, producer prices in the U.K. are expected to register a slight pullback with the core PPI forecast to reach 3.7% y/y in October from 3.8% y/y in September.

10.    USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Nov. 11, 9:55 am, ET.

The preliminary consumer sentiment index estimate for November is forecast to bring another month of improvement with a reading of 61.1, compared with 60.9 in October. Should the upcoming U.S. economic reports manage to keep up with the October trend, more optimistic undertones in the U.S. economic data throughout the month of November would help rule out concerns of a double dip and could reduce QE3 odds ahead of the Fed’s next meeting on December 13.       

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    NZD- New Zealand CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Mon., Oct. 24, 5:45 pm, ET.

Two days ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy meeting, the quarterly CPI report could add to the reduced odds of a rate hike in the near term, with inflationary pressures forecast to subside to 0.8% q/q in Q3 from 1.0% q/q in Q2 2011.

2.    CAD- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement, Tues., Oct. 25, 9:00 am, ET.

Despite of the rise in the Canadian CPI to 3.2% y/y, the index is still below the March peak at 3.7% y/y and since growth is the main agenda of the Bank of Canada, at this point the bank would be likely to refrain from tightening, keeping rates at the current 1.0% level.

3.    USD- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, Tues., Oct. 25, 10:00 am, ET.

The consumer sentiment data could start the week’s list of what is expected to be more optimistic U.S. economic reports with the index forecast to increase to 46.0 in October from 45.4 in September.

4.    AUD- Australia CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Reserve Bank of Australia, Tues., Oct. 25, 8:30 pm, ET.

In its latest meeting minutes, the Reserve Bank of Australia stated that the “inflation outlook appeared less concerning” and if the CPI report confirms these expectations, the market could begin to push further expectations of a RBA rate hike. The Australian inflation gauge is forecast to pull back to 0.7% q/q in Q3 2011 from 0.9% q/q in the second quarter.

5.    EUR- EU Summit of leaders of the 27 countries in the European Union, Wed., Oct. 26, tentative, all day event.

All eyes will be centered on the EU Summit when the markets around the world expect to see the promised “comprehensive strategy on the euro-area sovereign debt crisis”. This additional summit, which follows the one from October 23, is scheduled to take place by October 26 because EU leaders needed more time to finalize their new plans on how to prevent further contagion, recapitalize banks, expand EFSF, and conclude discussions on the next bailout installment for Greece. “Better late than never” optimism that EU leaders have finally realized the seriousness of the situation after about 2 years since the beginning of the crisis, has helped investor sentiment and risk appetite, with the euro registering its biggest rally since March, 2009. A lot is riding on this summit and if the EU leaders deliver anything short of spectacular, disappointment and risk aversion could quickly set back in, renewing the pressure on the single currency.

6.    USD- U.S. New Home Sales, an important gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, Wed., Oct. 26, 10:00 am, ET.

Although not at all impressive, in the “new normal” market environment even a rise of 5,000 might be considered as a positive sign, as the new home sales are expected to register a small increase to 300K in September from 295K in August.

7.    NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Oct. 26, 4:00 pm, ET.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand would probably steer further away from monetary policy tightening, following the direction set by all other major central banks as they all recently refocused on helping economic growth. The benchmark rate is expected to be left unchanged at 2.50%.

8.    JPY- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Thur., Oct. 27, around 12:00 am, ET.

With the yen registering new record highs against the U.S. dollar, it would be interesting to see what the Bank of Japan has to say and do about the persistent strength of their currency. This is provided that they haven’t intervened by the time the meeting takes place, as intervention is becoming a likely event, especially if the dollar breaks even lower.

9.     USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Thurs., Oct. 27, 8:30 am, ET.

The preliminary estimate of the U.S. Q3 GDP could instill some optimism with the U.S. economy forecast to regain momentum and grow by 2.0% q/a in the third quarter, compared with 1.3% q/a in Q2 2011.

10.    USD- U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index- a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve, Fri., Oct. 28, 8:30 am, ET.

Expected to be another potentially positive U.S. economic report, the consumer spending is forecast to register an increase by 0.6% m/m in September from 0.2% m/m in August and personal income to rise by 0.4% m/m from -0.1% m/m in the previous month, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Index, is expected to show inflationary pressures remaining flat at 0.1% m/m in September, same as the 0.1% m/m reading in August. 

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    USD- U.S. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Mon., Oct. 17, 9:15 am, ET.

Despite of the unexpected increase in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the U.S. industrial production could lose some momentum in September with a reading of 0.1% m/m, down from 0.2% m/m in August.

2.    CNY- China GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Mon., Oct. 17, 10:00 pm, ET.

As a result of the global slump, the world’s second-largest economy China is expected to slow, although not dramatically, to 9.2% q/y from 9.5% q/y in Q2 2011.

3.    GBP- U.K. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of England, Tues., Oct. 18, 4:30 am, ET.

Inflationary pressures in the U.K. are forecast to stay stubbornly high and even spike up to 4.9% y/y in September, compared with 4.5% y/y in August. Even though it might be a long shot, the GBP could attract some bids on expectations that, in light of rising inflation, the Bank of England could decide to limit the size of the recently-announced additional asset purchases.

4.    EUR- Euro-zone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations, Tues., Oct. 18, 5:00 am, ET.

The ZEW institute’s survey is expected to deliver another indicator of the deteriorating economic conditions in the Euro-zone with the economic sentiment index forecast to register a larger -45.0 decline in October, compared with -43.3 in August.

5.    GBP- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes, a comprehensive report of the central bank’s meeting that could provide an outlook on the economy, interest rates and future monetary policy, Wed., Oct. 19, 4:30 am, ET.

The minutes should serve as a reminder of the fears of contagion from the EU debt crisis and the threat of a double dip for the U.K. economy which were the main reasons behind the Bank of England’s decision to offer more quantitative easing and to expand the bank’s Asset Purchase Program by another 75 billion pounds. In other words, heightened event risk for the GBP…

6.    USD- U.S. U.S. Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring construction of new residential properties, and U.S. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Wed., Oct. 19, 8:30 am, ET.

While the U.S. housing starts are forecast to increase up to 590K in September from 571K in August, the building permits are expected to decline to 610K in September from 630K in the previous month.

Still not large enough of an increase to cause the Fed to reconsider its promise to keep rates “exceptionally low through 2013”, the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to rise to 2.1% y/y in September from 2.0% y/y in August.

7.    GBP- U.K. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring sales at retail establishments, Thurs., Oct. 20, 4:30 am, ET.

The U.K. consumer spending is forecast to increase by 0.1% m/m in September, compared with the 0.2% m/m drop in August.

8.    USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, Thurs., Oct. 20, 10:00 am, ET.

After rising to 5.03M in August, the sales of existing homes in the U.S. are forecast to slow to 4.91M in September, confirming the lack of significant improvement in the U.S. housing market.

9.    EUR- Germany IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, Fri., Oct. 21, 4:00 am, ET.

In the aftermath of the anticipated drop in the ZEW economic sentiment index, the German IFO index is forecast to follow suit with a reading of 106.5 in October from 107.5 in the previous month.

10.     EUR- EU Summit of leaders of the 27 countries in the European Union, Sun., Oct. 23, all day.

Without a doubt, the main event of the trading week, the EU Summit is when the markets around the world expect to see the promised “comprehensive strategy on the euro-area sovereign debt crisis”. The summit was postponed because EU leaders needed more time to finalize their new plans on how to prevent further contagion, recapitalize banks, and conclude discussions on the next bailout installment for Greece. “Better late than never” optimism that EU leaders have finally realized the seriousness of the situation after about 18 months since the beginning of the crisis, has helped investor sentiment and risk appetite, with the euro registering its biggest rally since March, 2009. A lot is riding on this summit and if the EU leaders deliver anything short of spectacular, disappointment and risk aversion could quickly set back in, renewing the pressure on the single currency.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    GBP- U.K. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Tues., Oct. 11, 4:30 am, ET.

Despite of the unexpected rise in the U.K. Manufacturing PMI, industrial activity in the U.K. is forecast to keep lacking momentum with another 0.2% m/m drop in August, unchanged from the -0.2% m/m reading in the previous month.

2.    USD- U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes, a detailed record of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy, inflation and the Fed’s future monetary policy, Tues., Oct. 11, 2:00 pm, ET.

The minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting will offer more details behind the decision to go forward with “Operation Twist” and would be likely to serve as a reminder of the Fed’s gloomy outlook and the U.S. central bank’s commitment to continue its ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

3.    GBP- U.K. Jobless Claims and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Oct. 12, 4:30 am, ET.

The U.K. labor market is expected to see an increase of up to 25,000 in the new claims for unemployment benefits in September, following the reading of 20,300 jobless claims in August, while the unemployment rate also inches higher to 8.0% from the previous reading of 7.9%.

4.    EUR- Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Wed., Oct. 12, 5:00 am, ET.

In the aftermath of the drop of the Manufacturing PMI in contraction territory, the Euro-zone industrial production could follow suit with a decline by 0.7% m/m in August from the 0.9% m/m increase in July.

5.    AUD- Australia Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Oct. 12, 8:30 pm, ET.

After a sequence of disappointing employment reports throughout the summer, the Australian labor market could finally show signs of improvement with up to 10,000 new jobs added in September, compared with the 9,700 jobs lost in August, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 5.3%.

6.    USD- U.S. Jobless Claims, an important gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Thurs., Oct. 13, 8:30 am, ET.

The recent decline to 391K in first-time applications for unemployment benefits was a positive surprise, however in the weeks to follow, jobless claims have climbed back above 400K and this trend could continue with another increase to 407K from 401K in the previous week. Economists estimate that jobless applications would need to fall to 375K and below in order to see a significant decline in unemployment.

7.    CNY- China CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the world’s second-largest economy, Thurs., Oct. 13, 9:00 pm, ET.

Inflationary pressures in China are forecast to subside for another month with consumer prices expected to reach 6.1% y/y from the previous reading of 6.2% y/y, potentially easing some of the concerns that the Chinese central bank may have lost its grip on inflation. On the other hand, if the consumer price index spikes unexpectedly, the odds of another rate hike by the PBOC would rise. A decision to raise the benchmark rate further could cause additional slowdown in the Chinese economy, reducing demand for Australian raw material exports and could have a negative impact on the Australian economy and the Australian dollar.

8.    EUR- Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation preferred by the European Central Bank, Fri., Oct. 14, 5:00 am, ET.

Following the flash estimate which delivered a surprising increase in inflationary pressures, the Euro-zone’s main inflation gauge is forecast to confirm that consumer prices rose to 3.0% y/y in September from the flat 2.5% y/y summer readings. Although the European Central Bank refrained from cutting rates in October, with the economy slowing and the debt crisis still underway, the market could continue to price expectations of a forthcoming ECB rate cut, keeping the euro under pressure.

9.    USD- U.S. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments, Fri., Oct. 14, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to show some hopeful signs as retail sales rise by 0.4% m/m in September after the flat 0% m/m reading in August, while the core retail sales gauge, which excludes automobile purchases, also increases by 0.2% m/m in September from 0.1% m/m in the previous month.

10.    USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Oct. 14, 9:55 am, ET.

The consensus forecasts are pointing to another slight improvement in the outlook of U.S. consumers with a preliminary consumer sentiment index estimate of 60.2 for October, compared with 59.4 in September. A more upbeat U.S. economic data throughout the month of October could help alleviate the market’s concerns of a double dip and could reduce the odds for QE3 by the Fed.     

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    USD- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, where a reading above or below 50 is the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction, Mon., Oct. 3, 10:00 am, ET.

The U.S. manufacturing sector index is forecast to maintain above 50 for another month with a reading of 50.5 in September from 50.6 in August, but a move into contraction territory would quickly join the long list of signs of U.S. economic weakness.

2.    AUD- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Announcement, Mon., Oct. 3, 11:30 pm, ET.

Last month’s monetary policy decisions from all major central banks have made it clear that they are steering further away from tightening in an effort to stimulate growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia is not likely to differ from that course and should keep rates at the current 4.75% level, while expressing a cautious view on domestic and global economic conditions. Even the slightest hint of a rate cut, coupled with risk aversion and weakness in commodity prices, could provide further impetus to the Australian dollar’s recent decline.

3.    GBP- U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Wed., Oct. 5, 4:30 am, ET.

The final reading of the U.K. Q2 GDP should confirm that the U.K. economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in the second quarter of 2011 after the 0.5% q/q increase in Q1 2011. An upward revision could give the British pound a temporary boost, but with the Bank of England policy makers warming up to the idea of more quantitative easing and expansion of the Asset Purchase Program, the pound could continue to feel the pressure.

4.    EUR- Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Wed., Oct. 5, 5:00 am, ET.

The slowdown in the Euro-zone’s economy is not much of a newsflash and the final reading of the Euro-zone Q2 GDP should confirm that the economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in the second quarter of 2011 after the 0.8% q/q increase in Q1 2011.

5.    USD- U.S. ADP-Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, a measure of jobs lost or added to the private sector of the economy, also serving as a leading indicator for the outcome of the monthly non-farm payrolls, Wed., Oct. 5, 8:15 am, ET.

Private sector payrolls are forecast to see a smaller increase by up to 80K in September, following the 91K new jobs created in August. An even lower than expected number could add to the market’s growing concerns about the state of the U.S. job market ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

6.    USD- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions in the services industries: agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade, Wed., Oct. 5, 10:00 am, ET.

The U.S. services industry activity is forecast to expand for another month, although at a slower pace to 54.9 in September from 55.6 in August.

7.    GBP- Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Oct. 6, 7:00 am, ET.

With more Bank of England policy makers and the Chancellor of the Exchequer warming up to the idea of additional quantitative easing, the pound could continue to feel the pressure ahead of the Bank of England’s October meeting. We are likely to see another unanimous vote by the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the benchmark rate at the low 0.50%. The GBP longs might rush to the exits if the Bank of England announces an expansion of its Asset Purchase Program beyond the current 200 billon-pounds ceiling.

8.    EUR- European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Oct. 6, 7:45 am, ET.

As expected, due to the slowdown in the Euro-zone economy and with inflationary pressures flattening throughout the summer months, the market is pricing a rate cut by the European Central Bank. Such announcement could come as early as the next meeting on October 6, although there are some “whispers” that the ECB will probably cut rates in November, after President Trichet retires on October 31. Fighting inflation and maintaining price stability is Mr. Trichet’s legacy and with last Friday’s unexpected spike in consumer prices from 2.5% y/y in July and August to 3.0% y/y in September, the odds for a rate cut in October have somewhat diminished. Whether it comes this month or in November, expectations of an impeding rate cut and the Euro-zone debt crisis will continue to be major risk factors for the EUR.

9.    JPY- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Fri., Oct. 7, around 12:00 am, ET.

Although the U.S. dollar has managed to stay above record lows, many other currency majors have already broken lower against the yen. With the currency’s strength likely to continue as a result of risk aversion and the flight to safety, the Bank of Japan might be forced to take further measures to curb the yen’s gains. After the Ministry of Finance beefed up it’s intervention fund by another 15 trillion yen last week, the Bank of Japan could follow suit by keeping the benchmark rate in the record low target band between 0%-0.10% and might decide to expand its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, while “carefully watching” the “one-sided moves” of the yen.

10.    USD- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation Report, one of the most important indicators of economic health, measuring the number of new jobs created or lost in the world’s largest economy, Fri., Oct. 7, 8:30 am, ET.

After a sequence of dismal summer labor market reports, traders will delve into all economic data throughout the month of October for signs of strength or weakness ahead of the Fed’s next meeting on November 1-2. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls might instill some cautious optimism with consensus forecasts expecting the U.S. economy to add up to 80K jobs in September- a much better reading than the non-existent, zero job creation in August. The unemployment rate would likely remain at 9.1% as a reminder that the road to recovery will be a long one. Another weak employment report would reinforce the Fed’s gloomy outlook on the economy and could re-open the door to QE3.  

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    EUR- Germany IFO Institute Business Climate and Expectations Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions and business expectations in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, Mon., Sept. 26, 4:00 am, ET.

Following the drop in the ZEW economic sentiment index, the German IFO index is also expected to head lower with a reading of 106.9 in September from 108.7 in the previous month.

2.    USD- U.S. New Home Sales, an important gauge of housing market conditions measuring the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the previous month, Mon., Sept. 26, 10:00 am, ET.

Despite of the rise in existing home sales, the weakness in the U.S. housing market is expected to continue with the new home sales registering a small decline to 295K in April from 298K in July.

3.    USD- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, Tues., Sept. 27, 10:00 am, ET.

The unexpected rise in consumer sentiment could be followed by an improvement in consumer confidence with the index forecast to increase to 46.0 in September from 44.5 in August.

4.    USD- U.S. Durable Goods Orders, a leading indicator of economic activity measuring durable goods orders placed with domestic manufacturers, Wed., Sept. 28, 8:30 am, ET.

As the U.S. economy slows, the orders for durable goods are forecast to lose momentum and drop by 0.5% m/m in August after rising by 4.1% m/m in the previous month.

5.    USD- U.S. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth in the world’s largest economy, Thurs., Sept. 29, 8:30 am, ET.

The third and final reading of the U.S. Q2 GDP is forecast to bring an upward revision of 1.2% q/a for the U.S. economic growth in the second quarter of 2011 from the previous estimate of 1.0% q/a, but still lower than the 3.1% growth in Q4 2010 and 1.9% in Q1 2011.

6.    EUR- German Bundestag Vote on EFSF Changes, Thurs., Sept. 29, all day event.

In the midst of a growing opposition to more bailouts and the Chancellor Merkel’s coalition suffering defeats in a number of regional elections, the German Bundestag will gather to vote on the changes to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund. To prevent a contagion from the debt crisis, European parliaments must approve the proposed in July plan to expand the reach of the 440 billion-euro bailout fund. The goal is to allow the EFSF to not only sell bonds in order to finance bailout loans, but to also let the fund buy the bonds of debt-ridden Euro-zone governments, and to provide funding for troubled banks. A failure to pass parliamentary approval in Germany, which is the largest economy in the Euro-zone and the biggest contributor country to the EFSF, would be a major blow for the euro and could accelerate the recent sell-off in the single currency. On the other hand, the euro could enjoy a relief rally on news of approvals to the EFSF changes by the German Bundestag on Thursday, September 29, and by the Austrian parliament on Friday, September 30.

7.    GBP- U.K. GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Fri., Sept. 30, 4:30 am, ET.

The final reading of the U.K. Q2 GDP should confirm that the U.K. economy grew by only 0.2% q/q in the second quarter of 2011 after the 0.5% q/q increase in Q1 2011. An upward revision could give the British pound a temporary boost, but with the Bank of England policy makers warming up to the idea of more quantitative easing and expansion of the Asset Purchase Program, the pound could continue to feel the pressure.

8.    EUR- Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation preferred by the European Central Bank, Fri., Sept. 30, 5:00 pm, ET.

The Euro-zone’s inflation gauge is forecast to show inflationary pressures flattening for a third consecutive month at 2.5% y/y in September, same as the 2.5% y/y reading in July and August. As the European Central Bank takes a more dovish stance on inflation and refocuses on growth, expectations of a forthcoming ECB rate cut coupled with uncertainty, pessimism and fears that the EU debt crisis will spread, will continue to be the major risk factors for the euro.

9.     USD- U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index- a leading indicator of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve, Fri., Sept. 30, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to register a smaller increase by 0.2% m/m in August from 0.8% m/m in the previous month, while the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Index, is expected to show inflationary pressures remaining flat at 0.2% m/m in August, same as the 0.2% m/m reading in July.

10.     USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Sept. 30, 9:55 am, ET.

The better-than-expected estimate for September is forecast to be confirmed by the revised reading, leaving the consumer sentiment index at 57.8 in September from 55.7 in August. However, consumer expectations as part of the overall index are expected to remain at a 30-year low, in line with the Fed’s gloomy outlook on the economy. 

In preparation for the new trading week, here is a list of the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    AUD- Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Announcement, Tues., Sep. 6, 12:30 am, ET.

Just until a few weeks ago, the market was pricing a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut, but following the RBA Governor’s recent statement that “inflation bears careful watching” and that the global economic situation “is not that bad” these expectations have changed. While the Reserve Bank of Australia would not be likely to make any changes to its current monetary policy and is forecast to keep the benchmark rate at 4.75%, if the statement following the monetary policy meeting echoes the RBA Governor’s optimistic outlook, the Aussie dollar could see an opportunity to resume its upward trend against the greenback.

2.    CHF- Swiss CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Swiss National Bank, Tues., Sep. 6, 3:15 am, ET.

The record high Swiss franc is not only bad for the economy but it is also deflationary. Should the inflation gauge head lower again, this could give the Swiss National Bank another reason to step up efforts to curb the strength of its currency. The Swiss CPI declined 0.8% m/m in July bringing the annual rate to 0.5% y/y from 0.6% y/y in June and it is forecast to see another 0.1% m/m drop in August.

3.    EUR- Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Sep. 6, 5:00 am, ET.

The revised reading of the Euro-zone GDP is expected to confirm the preliminary estimate that economic growth was four times slower at 0.2 % q/q in the second quarter of 2011, compared with 0.8% q/q in Q1 2011.

4.    USD- U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of economic conditions in the services industries: agriculture, mining, construction, transportation, communications, wholesale trade and retail trade, Tues., Sep. 6, 10:00 am, ET.

As the ISM Manufacturing PMI surprisingly held above 50 in August, activity in the U.S. services industries is forecast to follow suit and expand for another month with an ISM index reading of 51.5 in August, down from 52.7 in July.

5.    AUD- Australia GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Sep. 6, 9:30 pm, ET.

Hit by massive floods, the Australian economy unexpectedly shrunk by 1.2% q/q in the first quarter of 2011 from 0.8% q/q in Q4 2010, but is expected to recover and grow by 1.0% q/q in the second quarter of 2011. A return to growth could keep the higher-yielding Australian dollar well bid, especially if risk appetite makes a comeback.

6.    JPY- Bank of Japan Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Sep. 7, around 12:00 am, ET.

The Bank of Japan is not expected to make any drastic changes to its monetary policy, keeping the benchmark rate at its record low level of 0.10%. However, with the dollar lingering near post WWII lows against the yen, it would not be surprising to see the Bank of Japan reassuring the markets of its commitment to do whatever is necessary in order to prevent any rapid yen appreciation.

7.    CAD- Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Sep. 7, 9:00 am, ET.

Perhaps the least interesting of the five central bank announcements next week, the Bank of Canada’s meting could end up being a formality with consensus forecasts anticipating policy makers to maintain the status quo, while expressing concerns about the negative impact of the deteriorating economic conditions in the U.S. which is Canada’s largest trading partner. It would be a shocker (and a Canadian dollar negative), but there might be some chance that the Bank of Canada warns that further U.S., Canadian and global economic slowdown could warrant a rate cut in the near future.

8.    AUD- Australia Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Sep. 7, 9:30 pm, ET.

The third major spotlight event from “down under” next week could give the Aussie dollar an additional boost with the Australian economy forecast to recover from the 100 jobs lost in July by adding up to 10,400 new jobs in August, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 5.1%.

9.    GBP- Bank of England Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Sep. 8, 7:00 am, ET.

The latest unanimous vote by the Monetary Policy Committee to keep the benchmark rate at the low 0.50% level has made it clear that the Bank of England does not see any urgency to raise interest rates and the September meeting is likely to bring more of the same. A passive Bank of England expected to sit on the sidelines for another month could contribute to the case for GBP weakness ahead of the BOE meeting and possibly even after that if the bank announces or opens the door to an expansion of its Asset Purchases Program. On the other hand, if the bank of England refrains from additional quantitative easing, when the market rout and the risk aversion dust settles, the GBP could begin to be viewed as a less ugly alternative to the USD and the EUR.

10.    EUR- European Central Bank Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Sep. 8, 7:45 am, ET.

With the Euro-zone economy slowing and inflationary pressures subsiding, the EUR could see selling pressures mounting ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting as the market shifts its expectations for another rate hike by the end of the year and begins to more aggressively price a potential rate cut in the near future. A dovish ECB statement, coupled with fears that Greece would miss its budget deficit targets for the year which might move the country one step closer to exiting the monetary union, could continue to weigh on the single currency next week.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    USD- U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, a measure of the income received and purchases made by consumers, released along with the Personal Consumption and Expenditures Price Index- an indicator of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve, Mon., Aug. 29, 8:30 am, ET.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Index which excludes food and energy costs, is expected to show inflationary pressures rising by 0.2% m/m in July, compared with 0.1% m/m in the previous month. Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to register an increase by 0.5% m/m in July, recovering from the 0.2% m/m drop in June.

2.    USD- U.S. Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring the amount of homes under contract to be sold, Mon., Aug. 29, 10:00 am, ET.

Another red flag from the housing market could be raised by the U.S. pending home sales index with forecasts pointing to a 0.8% m/m decline in July following the increase by 2.4% m/m in June.

3.    USD- U.S. Consumer Confidence Index of consumers’ outlook on present and future economic conditions, Tues., Aug. 30, 10:00 am, ET.

The sequence of weak economic data from the world’s largest economy could continue with the confidence of U.S. consumers forecast to deteriorate as the index declines to 55 in August from 59.5 in July.

4.    USD- U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes, a detailed record of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting that may provide an outlook on the economy, inflation and the Fed’s future monetary policy, Tues., Aug. 30, 2:00 pm, ET.

The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s last meeting are not expected to tell us anything that we don’t already know, but should remind the markets of the Fed’s concerns about the “frustratingly slow” recovery and will echo the U.S central bank’s commitment to keep rates “exceptionally low” until 2013.

5.    EUR- Euro-zone Flash HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation, Wed., Aug. 31, 5:00 am, ET.

Inflationary pressures in the Euro-zone are expected to remain unchanged at 2.5% y/y in August, same as the 2.5% y/y reading in July, but still above the European Central Bank’s 2% target level.

6.    USD- U.S. ADP-Automatic Data Processing Employment Report, a measure of jobs lost or added to the private sector of the economy, also serving as a leading indicator of the monthly non-farm payrolls, Wed., Aug. 31, 8:15 am, ET.

After adding 114K new jobs in July, the U.S. private sector is forecast to create another 110K jobs in August. A worst-than-expected ADP report would confirm the Fed’s concerns about the lack of significant improvement in the U.S. labor market.

7.    CHF- Swiss GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Thurs., Sep. 1, 1:45 am, ET.

Although growing a bit faster that the 0.3% q/q pace in the first quarter, the Swiss economic growth in Q2 2011 is expected to be revised lower at 0.4% q/q, compared with the preliminary estimate of 0.6% q/q. The lower GDP revision could serve as a reminder of the negative impact of the strong franc on the Swiss economy, keeping the Swiss National Bank determined to curb any further franc appreciation.

8.    USD- U.S. Jobless Claims, an important gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Thurs., Sep. 1, 8:30 am, ET.

Remaining stubbornly above 375K, the level below which economists estimate that jobless applications would need to fall in order to see a significant decline in unemployment, first-time applications for unemployment benefits are expected to reach 409K from 417K in the previous week.

9.    USD- U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index, a leading indicator of industrial activity, where a reading above or below 50 is the dividing line between economic expansion and contraction, Thurs., Sep. 1, 10:00 am, ET.

This could become an event with the potential to spook the markets next week as the U.S. manufacturing sector is forecast to register a contraction with an ISM index reading of 48.5 in August from 50.9 in July.

10.    USD- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Situation Report, one of the most important indicators of economic health, measuring the number of new jobs created or lost in the world’s largest economy, Fri., Sep. 2, 8:30 am, ET.

Following the more upbeat Non-Farm Payrolls data in July, the weakness in the U.S. labor market could continue for another month with consensus forecasts expecting the U.S. economy to add up to 110K jobs in August, compared with 117K in July. Despite of the expectations for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 9.1%, the current rate of jobs creation barely keeps up with population growth and will not be sufficient enough to significantly lower the unemployment levels anytime soon. Another weak and disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report could become the catalyst that could move the Fed closer to QE3 in an effort to speed up the “frustratingly slow” pace of recovery at the expense of the U.S. dollar. 

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    JPY- Japan GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Sun., Aug. 14, 7:50 pm, ET.

The preliminary GDP estimate for the second quarter of 2011 is forecast to show that the Japanese economy has not yet ended its third recession in a decade. After contracting by 0.9% q/q in the first quarter, the economy is expected to shrink a bit less by 0.7% q/q in Q2 2011.

2.    GBP- U.K. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of England, Tues., Aug. 16, 4:30 am, ET.

Although pulling back to 4.2% y/y in June from 4.5% y/y in May, inflationary pressures in the U.K. could remain stubbornly high, inching up to 4.3% y/y in July.

3.    EUR- Euro-zone GDP- Gross Domestic Product, the main measure of economic activity and growth, Tues., Aug. 16, 5:00 am, ET.

With the French economy not expanding in the second quarter and the German engine of growth losing steam, the preliminary estimate of the Euro-zone GDP is expected to be in line with the signs of a global slowdown as the economy grows at a slower pace by 0.3% q/q in the second quarter of 2011, compared with 0.8% q/q in Q1. The EUR keeps fluctuating within a tight range against the USD in the last couple of weeks, but could attempt to break lower it if the EU debt crisis continues to rattle the single currency and if economic conditions in the Euro-zone deteriorate.

4.    USD- U.S. Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring construction of new residential properties, Tues., Aug. 16, 8:30 am, ET.

Following the unexpected increase to 629K in June, the U.S. housing starts are forecast to pull back to 600K in July, while the building permits also register a small decline to 610K in July from 620K in June.

5.    USD- U.S. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Tues., Aug. 16, 9:15 am, ET.

Despite of the drop in the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the U.S. industrial production could gain momentum in July with a reading of 0.4% m/m, up from 0.2% m/m in June.

6.    GBP- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Meeting Minutes, a comprehensive report of the central bank’s meeting that could provide an outlook on the economy, interest rates and future monetary policy, Wed., Aug. 17, 4:30 am, ET.

The minutes could confirm the market’s expectations that the Bank of England is in no hurry to hike rates any time soon and that the benchmark rate could stay at its record low 0.5% level for the rest of the year (and possibly until H2 2012). When the market rout and the risk aversion dust settles, the GBP could begin to be viewed as a less ugly alternative to the USD and the EUR. However, the GBP could see some selling pressures mounting if the minutes report reveals that more quantitative easing and an expansion of the bank’s Asset Purchases Program could become a reality in the near future.

7.    EUR- Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation, Wed., Aug. 17, 5:00 am, ET.

The European Central Bank’s preferred inflation gauge is forecast to stay unchanged at 2.5% y/y in July, same as the 2.5% y/y reading in June, but still above the bank’s 2.0% comfort level.

8.    USD- U.S. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Thurs., Aug. 18, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer prices in the United States are forecast to rise by 0.2% m/m in July compared with the 0.2% m/m drop in June. Such increase would, more than likely, not be enough to change the Fed’s mind and its promise to keep rates “exceptionally low through 2013”.

9.    USD- U.S. Existing Home Sales, the main gauge of the condition of the U.S. housing market measuring the number of closed sales of previously constructed homes, condominiums and co-ops, Thurs., Aug. 18, 10:00 am, ET.

After the June drop to 4.77M from 4.81M in May, the sales of existing homes in the U.S. are forecast to gain some traction with an increase to 4.9M in July.

10.    CAD- Canada CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation, Fri., Aug. 19, 7:00 am, ET.

The Canadian economy could see consumer prices rising by 0.2% m/m in July, compared with the 0.7% m/m decline in June.

In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.

1.    CNY- China CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the world’s second-largest economy, Mon., Aug. 8, 10:00 pm, ET.

The Chinese central bank might be prompted to continue their campaign of rate hikes in an attempt to curb inflationary pressures with consumer prices expected to remain elevated by 6.4% y/y in July, same as the June reading of 6.4% y/y.

2.    GBP- U.K. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Tues., Aug. 9, 4:30 am, ET.

After the larger-than-expected drop in U.K. Manufacturing PMI, industrial activity in the U.K. is forecast to show a smaller increase by 0.4% m/m in June from 0.9% m/m in May.

3.    USD- U.S. FOMC- Federal Open Market Committee Interest Rate Announcement, Tues., Aug. 9, 2:15 pm, ET.

With the U.S. economy slowing in the second quarter of 2011 and after a couple of months of dismal labor market data, the Fed is not going to be in any hurry to start tightening anytime soon and will keep rates in the record low target band between 0% and 0.25% for the rest of the year (possibly even until H2 2012). Moreover, as the U.S. is now on the path to fiscal austerity, the risk of additional economic slowdown might force the Fed into offering another round of quantitative easing. In other words, QE3 might rear its ugly head, after all, and we all know what QE1 and QE2 meant for the U.S. dollar…

4.    GBP- Bank of England Inflation Report, the central bank’s official assessment on current inflationary pressures and outlook on future inflation, Wed., Aug. 10, 5:30 am, ET.

Inflationary pressures in the U.K. have pulled back to 4.2% y/y in June from 4.5% y/y in May, reducing the odds that the Bank of England will consider a rate hike in the near future. With the U.K. and the global economy losing momentum, if the Bank of England’s inflation report does not see a threat of rising inflation and if policy makers expect inflationary pressures to subside after peaking above 4%, the market could continue to push BoE rate hike expectations further into 2012.

5.    AUD- Australia Employment Situation and Unemployment Rate, the main gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Aug. 10, 9:30 pm, ET.

As China, which is Australia’s top trading partner, slows and demand for raw material exports declines, the Australian economy could experience smaller job creation with up to 10,300 new jobs added in July, compared with 23,400 in June, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at the low 4.9% level.

6.    EUR- European Central Bank Monthly Bulletin on economic conditions, inflation and monetary policy, Thurs., Aug. 11, 4:00 am, ET.

In the aftermath of the European Central Bank’s decision to pause its campaign of interest rate hikes in August and to resume its bond-buying program, the monthly bulletin would likely highlight the factors prompting the central bank to make these decisions. It would be interesting to find out if the ECB will aim in the right direction by considering to buy not only Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt, but also Italian and Spanish bonds in an effort to calm the market’s fears of contagion from the EU debt crisis.

7.    USD- U.S. Jobless Claims, an important gauge of employment trends and labor market conditions, Thurs., Aug. 11, 8:30 am, ET.

Still above the 375K level, below which economists estimate that jobless applications would need to fall in order to see a significant decline in unemployment, first-time applications for unemployment benefits are expected to reach 402K from 400K in the previous week.

8.    EUR- Euro-zone Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Fri., Aug. 12, 5:00 am, ET.

Despite of the drop in the Manufacturing PMI, the Euro-zone industrial production could hold steady in July with a reading of 0.1% m/m, same as the 0.1% m/m increase in June.

9.    USD- U.S. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments, Fri., Aug. 12, 8:30 am, ET.

Consumer spending in the U.S. is forecast to improve as retail sales rise by 0.4% m/m in July from 0.1% m/m in June, while the core retail sales gauge, which excludes automobile purchases, also increases by 0.2% m/m in July from 0.0% m/m in the previous month.

10.    USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Aug. 12, 9:55 am, ET.

The stock market rout, coupled with high food and energy costs, could continue to impact the U.S. consumer sentiment with the index forecast to inch lower to 63.3 in August from 63.7 in July.