ForexNews.com » Paul Golofaro

Friday August 5, 2011 EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook

Paul Golofaro — Fri, 05 Aug 2011 02:28:02 +0000

Written at 10:15 pm EDT EUR/USD Trading at 1.4113

Last night I wrote about a fair amount of downside room and the pair moved almost 200 pips lower from where we were trading at the time of the report. It looks like the pair still has some room to fall but I would be cautious about jumping in and expecting a rapid drop. Wait for hourly levels to get hit, then look to your short-term charts for the proper entry. There is short-term (5 minute) resistance at the current level but the hourly is showing 1.4175 area as the next area of resistance. Either way, look for short-term signals off of the larger levels and you should be fine. I just picked up a few pips on a long trade from 1.4090 but I am waiting for a more clear signal before my next move. Ignore the fundamentals and listen to the charts. Don’t let a solid day of stock market destruction lead to assumptions about future moves. If your chart is telling you to buy, if it screams sell, sell. Keep it simple. Please. Good luck and have a pleasant weekend.

CLICK HERE FOR CHART

Thursday, August 4, 2011 EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook

Paul Golofaro — Thu, 04 Aug 2011 02:07:22 +0000

Written 9:45 pm EDT EUR/USD Trading at 1.4316

The EUR/USD is trading away from major levels at this point, so I am reluctant to advise on direction. Keep an eye on 1.4270-90 for an opportunity to buy and the 1.4360 mark for sell signals. The aforementioned levels will provide for better risk/reward setups than an entry at the present price, so be patient. The 5 minute chart is showing a fair amount of downside room into the 1.4270 zone, then the 1.4150 area. I am waiting for a trigger signal on the 5 minute chart but will be watching the hourly levels first, then for the 5 minute setup to signal my entry. I can’t emphasize enough how important it is to wait for the market to come to you. Don’t be upset that you saw “the perfect entry” two hours ago on the chart when you were not at your screen. The market has proven itself to me over and over again, it will come to you. That’s all for tonight. Good luck and be patient.

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Thursday, July 28, 2011 EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook

Paul Golofaro — Thu, 28 Jul 2011 01:31:25 +0000

Written 9:10 pm EDT EUR/USD trading 1.4367

The trade from Monday was closed at 1.4480 with just over 100 pip profit. Although I did not write last night, I was long from 1.4514 and was stopped out at 1.4480. The EUR/USD looks bullish to at least 1.4422 where it could run into some former resistance, and a level where we saw some short-term hesitation earlier today during the U.S. session. If we reach 1.4422, watch for a reversal but don’t rule out a break higher. In the event of a break higher, watch for the pair to come back and build some support before jumping in. A move lower will likely take us into the 1.4333 area and this is a place where I would want to be flat. Watch for a bounce but be cautious of the break and a test of the 1.4333 level as resistance. A move below the aforementioned level will likely bring us into the 1.4167 mark. I am cautiously long at 1.4374 with a close eye on what might unfold. Be patient.

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July 26, 2011 EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook

Paul Golofaro — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 03:17:50 +0000

As I sat down to write this, EUR/USD was trading at 1.4426 and thirty minutes later we are looking at 1.4480. I am bullish on the pair and am currently long from 1.4377 on a trade from earlier tonight. Stop is at break-even in the event of a rapid move lower but a short-term setup to the downside will have me out and on the sidelines. 1.4425 area was resistance but looks to be turning into support if we can get an hourly close above that level. Targeting 1.4560 and a break and close above that level will keep me long to target 1.4690 then 1.4900. Please keep in mind that if we see a reversal setup on the short-term charts and a failure to hold above resistance, don’t get married to the long trade while the pair heads lower. To the downside, we have 1.4331 then 1.4166. Look for support to hold and buy short-term buy setups where you can target the hourly levels for profit taking. If you’re looking to sell breaks, wait for the break, wait for the pair to test the former support as resistance, then pounce. Be patient, the market will always feed you. Always.

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Monday July 11, 2011 EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook

Paul Golofaro — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 01:35:40 +0000

EUR/USD Trading at 1.4204 Opening lower from Friday’s close, expect the pair to return to the 1.4240-50 range in an effort to close the gap. The daily appears to be bearish and a return to the 1.4170 level looks likely. At this point, 1.4184 holds current support while resistance is coming in at 1.4241. Be patient and wait for a move to support or resistance and for a buy or sell signal to setup on the 1 and/or 5 minute chart. A move beyond current support should land the pair at 1.4116 and a move above resistance could easily return the EUR/USD to the 1.4366 level. When I refer to looking at the 1 and or 5 min chart for entries, buy signals should be noted by failures to take out recent short-term lows and sell signals should be taken when recent highs/resistance contains price movement. These short-term charts allow for tight stops and maximum risk/reward setups.

EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook 7/2/11

Paul Golofaro — Tue, 05 Jul 2011 14:05:17 +0000

With a weekly close at 1.4527 near the top of the current range, charts are bullish and I expect a move to 1.4695. 1.4540 holds a fair amount of selling action, but with the US holiday on Monday, a quick move higher seems likely and be cautious of selling the hourly resistance at 4540. I am flat from my long at 1.4454 but will be waiting for the next short-term setup off of larger time frame support/resistance. Look to buy pullbacks from the current level and if we see a break higher, look for the current resistance to turn to support at 1.4540. Look for further resistance at 1.4634 and support at 1.4460. Enjoy the extended weekend and look to take smaller than average positions as increased volatility is likely. (Click chart to enlarge)

EUR/USD Short-term Outlook 6/29/11

Paul Golofaro — Thu, 30 Jun 2011 13:01:48 +0000

Eur/usd currently trading 1.4465. The charts setup nicely last night for a move higher and after a deep retracement from earlier wednesday highs, the pair looks to be set for more gains. The daily chart is showing a continuation in this uptrend while the hourly continues to build on new levels of support. Daily levels show the potential for a pullback to the first level of support at 4410, while the next daily level of resistance is coming in at 4695. The pair is holding high in the current support/resistance column, lending support for the bullish scenario. 4430 is our first hourly support level, followed by 4345 then 4265. Hourly resistance is close at 4482, then 4540, 4630 and 4692, which is also our next daily level. After breaking even on a long from 4354 last night, i am long again, at a level higher than i would like, but 4437 is my entry with a stop at 4385. I am targeting 4690. It is important to also note that if short-term charts point to a move lower, I will look to take the trade until another reversal to the upside develops.