Iran Threatens to Block Straight of Hormuz – Scenarios for Oil Prices
Andrei Knight, Chief Market Strategist, fxKnight.com
Responding to renewed calls from the U.S. for the U.N. to impose unilateral sanctions against Iran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad threatened that any new sanctions will be countered by a naval blockade of the Straight of Hormuz, a major route for the transport of oil and imports for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
What can we expect from oil prices in the next few weeks?
An important level to watch is 101.75 – it has already held as resistance several times in the past, and the current daily candlestick formation suggests that we will test it again. Breaking a prior trendline and over the past few days establishing it as support is also a bullish sign.
If price can break the 101.75 resistance and find some support there, our projection for the next top would be at the 138% Fibonacci extension, or 105.28, based upon yesterday’s 38% retracement. Price action also suggests that the markets have noticed this particular Fib, with the prior daily wick snapping to the 98.22 level rather than the recent support at 97.84
If, on the other hand, 101.75 continues to hold as resistance, then look for a range to develop between this level and 99.57.