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Contributors Which Way Next for the Euro?

Andrei Knight, Senior Portfolio Manager,

We have to wonder, with some members of the EU Commission already talking about a THIRD bail-out for Greece sometime in 2013, and the LTRO (long-term refinancing operations) figures coming in way above expectations, if February’s rally on the EUR/USD is finally coming to an end.

Perhaps.  But also perhaps not.

We’re currently watching a critical support level at 1.3321 – this is not only our central, 0% Fib, but also a prior resistance level from 3 weeks ago (and resistance has a way of becoming support).

The pair might be forgiven for briefly testing levels below this, as the daily 21 exponential moving average is currently at 1.3251 (and rising), but that’s about.  Anything significantly below would put  the Euro into a downtrend which could take us as low as 1.3056 or 1.2974 within the next week or so of trading.

A bounce at 1.3321 (or the 21 EMA), on the other hand, could pave the way for reaching long-term Fibonacci targets, currently waiting at 1.3586 and 1.3750 (unless stopped first by the daily 200 simple moving average, currently at 1.3715.

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