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Economic Indicator UK GDP: Current and Historical Data

Current UK GDP Growth Rate: 0.3%

Next Release: Thursday, July 25, 08:30 GMT (Released quarterly, about 24 days after the review quarter ends)

Economists Expect: 0.6%

Source of Report: Office for National Statistics

Upcoming Release Commentary

UK Gross Domestic Product increased 0.3 percent during the first quarter of 2013, on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Growth between the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 was revised from a fall of 0.1 percent to flat, meaning the U.K.’s economy did not witness a double-dip recession as previously reported.

A majority of analysts are expecting a better reading for Q2, with projections for a 0.6 percent GDP growth. Growth was likely fueled by strength in the services sector, with industrial production expected to maintain its modest uptrend. The recent retail sales figures indicate that consumption is accelerating. However, if the economy manages such a strong expansion, it will certainly limit the scope for further quantitative easing.

U.K. GDP Growth Rate Historical Perspective:

Historically, from 1955 until 2013, the United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate averaged 0.62 percent, reaching a record high of 5.30 percent in March 1973, and a low of -2.50 percent in June 1958.

united-kingdom-gdp-growth

united-kingdom-gdp-growth-annual

Market Impact Scenarios

GDP data has the tendency to move markets upon release. Robust GDP figures are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative figures are bearish. A better than expected UK GDP reading will indicate higher economic activity, and therefore a high demand for the British Pound. Economic growth also raises inflationary concerns, which generally leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates make holding the British Pound more attractive to foreign investors, increasing the demand for the currency.

GBP/USD vs. U.K. GDP (QoQ)

uk gdp2

UK GDP Definition

  • Gross domestic product is a measure of a country’s economic activity, and is the total market value of all goods and services produced in the country during a given period minus the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Gross Domestic Product is calculated as:

          GDP = C + I + G + (EX – IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

  • An economy is generally considered to be in recession if it has two consecutive quarters of contraction.

  • The headline UK GDP figure is an annualised percentage growth rate.

 

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