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Currencies Gold Gold Calm Ahead of US Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence Numbers


It’s been an uneventful week for gold prices and the lack of activity continues on Friday. In the European session, the spot price stands at $1153.77. We could see some movement from the pair, as the US releases three key events on Friday – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment.

US Unemployment Claims has looked solid in recent readings, but the key indicator jumped to 290 thousand, missing the estimate of 282 thousand. This marked a seven-week high for the key indicator. The news wasn’t any better from JOLTS Jobs Openings, which weakened to 4.74M, down from 4.84M a month earlier. The estimate stood at 4.81M. On Friday, we’ll get a look at US retail and consumer confidence numbers, so we could see some movement from gold if there are some unexpected readings from these key events.

XAU/USD for Friday, November 14, 2014

XAU/USD November 14 at 9:20 GMT
XAU/USD 1153.77 H: 1162.69 L: 1149.59

XAU/USD Technical

  • Gold broke below support at 1156 late in the Asian session. The pair is showing little movement in the European session.
  • 1156 has reverted to a resistance role. It is a fluid line and could see further action during the day. 1175 is next.
  • 1130 is an immediate support line.
  • Current range: 1130 to 1156.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1130, 1111, 1073 and 1041
  • Above: 1156, 1175, 1200, 1215 and 1240

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold is showing small losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias in favor of gold moving to higher ground.

XAU/USD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -1.7%.
  • 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 87.3 points.
  • 14:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.
  • 15:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 15:00 US Mortgage Delinquencies.
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 37B.
  • 21:00 US FOMC Member Stanley Fisher Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT

About Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher Currency Analyst, Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years. Follow on and on his Google+ profile.