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Currencies AUD ST Technicals Offer Moment of Reflection in EUR-crosses

Talking Points:

  • EURUSD now in symmetrical triangle as it grapples with wedge.
  • EURAUD rising channel may come into question below 1.4972.
  • December forex seasonality foresaw a modestly weaker Euro.

Short-term technicals may be at odds with long-term perspectives at present moment, putting many of the EUR-crosses on watch for some volatility over the next few days. Even though portfolio rebalancing and overstretched short positioning may be contributing to the recent rebound, a degree of patience is required before engaging the Euro from the short side once more.

The nature of this short covering rally should keep longer-term bears salivating at the opportunity to reload at a better price. Peak bearishness was evident in the week ended November 4, when traders were net-short to the tune of 179.0K contracts.

As of December 9, with short positions being covered, only 136.9K contracts remained. Herein lies the longer-term hope for bears: even as short positions abated from the November 4 to December 9 period, EURUSD still managed to decline by -1.37%.

A reestablishment of short sellers back at the early-November levels could bring about the new wave of downside in the EUR-crosses.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, EURAUD, and EURGBP.

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