Gold Steady Ahead of Host of US Numbers
Gold is showing little movement on Tuesday, as the spot price stands at $1177.61 per ounce. On the release front, there are a host of US events ahead of the Christmas holiday. There are four key events on the calendar – Core Durable Goods Orders, Final GDP, UoM Consumer Sentiment and New Homes. With the markets having plenty of data to assess, we could see some movement from gold during the North American session.
It was a disappointing start to the week for US releases, as Existing Home Sales fell to 4.93 million in November, its lowest level in six months. The markets had expected a reading of 5.21 million. The weak reading followed the October release of 5.26 million, which was its best showing in over a year. Later on Tuesday, we’ll get a look at New Home Sales. Little change is expected in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 461 thousand.
Previous Fed policy statements have usually stated that the Fed would maintain low rates for a “considerable time”, but the December statement changed terminology, saying the Fed would be “patient” before raising rates. In a follow-press conference, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen was less ambiguous, saying that the Fed was unlikely to raise rates for the “next couple of meetings”. The markets took this to mean that a rate hike is in the works, but not before April. Gold prices remained steady after the Fed statement, but as an interest rate hike by mid-2015 seems likely, there is room for the dollar to make gains against gold.
XAU/USD has shown little movement in the Asian and European sessions, as the pair trades just above support at 1175.
On the upside, 1200 has some breathing room as the pair trades at lower levels. 1215 is next.
On the downside, 1175 is under strong pressure. Will the pair break below this line?
Current range: 1175 to 1200
Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1175, 1156, 1130 and 1111
Above: 1200, 1215, 1240, 1255 and 1275
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, continuing the direction which started the week. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold has posted slight gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards gold moving to higher ground.
13:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.1%.
13:30 US Final GDP. Estimate 4.3%.
13:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 3.0%.
13:30 US Final GDP Price Index. Estimate 1.4%.
14:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.3%.
14:55 US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 93.5 points.
14:55 US Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
15:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 461K.
15:00 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.1%.
15:00 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.5%.
15:00 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.6%.
15:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 8 points.
* Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT
About Kenny Fisher
Currency Analyst, Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years. Follow on and on his Google+ profile.