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Top trade idea for July 31st, 2015 – GBP/CAD

Last week GBPCAD arrived at a swing equivalent level where the last swing (“CD”) was the same size as the swing leading into it (“AB”). It’s quite common for trends to end at this point, setting up for a significant correction. The uptrend in GBPCAD had been losing momentum as it approached this swing equivalent […]

Chart Of The Day For July 31st ,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0888, 1.0814, 1.0740 Resistance:1.0980, 1.1036, 1.1128 The Euro extended downward against the US Dollar as expected after prices produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1.0888 exposes the 1.0814-18 area (50% level, May 27 low). Alternatively, a move above […]

EURUSD – Remains Bearish Despite Finding Support

The euro has been under pressure against the dollar over the past few days since running into significant resistance from the 144-day simple moving average and descending trend line, from 14 July highs. This came as divergences were appearing on the 4-hour chart (see EURUSD – Divergence at Major Resistance). Not only did the pair […]

US Dollar May Rise as 2Q GDP Data Boosts Fed Rate Speculation

Talking Points: Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in German CPI, Unemployment Data US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat 2Q GDP Report Amplifies Fed Rate Hike Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The preliminary set of July’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The […]

Chart Of The Day For July 30th ,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0888, 1.0814, 1.0740 Resistance:1.1047, 1.1121, 1.1195 The Euro put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting the down trend against the US Dollar may be resuming. Near-term support is at 1.0888, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing […]

Top trade idea for July 30st, 2015 – AUDUSD

FOMC the other day brought nothing but more uncertainty in an FX world dominated by ranges this July as no one really wants to take a chance ahead of the September rate hike or at least ahead of the NFP to come next week. Fed suggested it still wants to see more jobs being created […]

Data in Focus Ahead of Fed Statement

European futures are pointing to a higher open on Wednesday ahead of the FOMC decision and statement this evening, which could offer clues on the timing of the first rate hike in more than nine years. While indices are expected to open higher, reflecting a higher risk appetite among investors, there is likely to be […]

US Dollar Likely to Rise After FOMC Policy Announcement

Talking Points: US Dollar Likely to Rise Following FOMC Monetary Policy Announcement Markets Expect Tightening in September But a July Rate Hike is a Possibility See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders wholeheartedly focused on the outcome […]

Top Trade Idea for July 29th, 2015 – USD/JPY

It’s been a quiet overnight session for most major currencies as market participants refrained from placing large trades ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. As we noted yesterday, the central bank is unlikely to make any outright changes to monetary policy, but the wording of the accompanying statement could tilt the scales in the hotly-contested “September […]

Chart Of The Day For July 29th ,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1047, 1.0955, 1.0899 Resistance:1.1121, 1.1195, 1.1287 The Euro corrected modestly lower after an apparent upside breakout marked by a push through falling trend line set from mid-June. A daily close above the 50% Fibonacci retracementat 1.1121 exposes the 61.8% level at 1.1195. Alternatively, a reversal back below […]

EURUSD – Divergence at Major Resistance

The euro is facing a big test as it attempts to maintain its recent momentum against the dollar and break through a major resistance level that would strongly call into question whether this pair could in fact hit parity by the end of the year, as some suspect.The first thing to note is the resistance […]

GBP Gains from GDP Report, BoE Rate Hopes – USD to Follow on FOMC?

Talking Points: GBPAUD, GBPNZD reverse losses at familiar support levels. EURGBP, EURUSD dip back towards recent lows. See the DailyFX economic calendar for Monday, July 27, 2015. For at least one of the two central banks closest towards raising rates, data and events so far this week have unfolded favorably for policy hawks. We’re talking […]

Top Trade Idea for July 28th, 2015 –XAU/USD

Gold is trading at new lows, currently around the trendline connected from the start of 2014 where support can be found, especially if we consider the shape of an ending diagonal placed in fifth wave. That’s a very important reversal pattern that suggests a bounce in the second part of 2015 and maybe very strong […]

Chart Of The Day For July 28th ,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1047, 1.0955, 1.0899 Resistance:1.1121, 1.1195, 1.1287 The Euro broke above a falling trend line set from mid-June, hinting an upside reversal against the US Dollarmay be in progress. Near term resistance is at 1.1121, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing […]

Cautious Start to the Week as Fed Statement Eyed

It could be a very interesting week for the markets, dominated by the Federal Reserve meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday that could determine how the markets trade over the next couple of months. Corporate earnings will also remain a big focus this week, especially as they could be the last set of results we get […]

US Dollar Backtracks as FOMC Rate Decision Looms Ahead

Talking Points: US Dollar Drops Amid Pre-Positioning Before FOMC Policy Announcement Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Direction Cues in German IFO Survey Data See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade as front-end yields declined, hinting weakness may reflect pre-positioning ahead of this week’s […]

Chart Of The Day For July 27th ,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0955, 1.0894, 1.0816 Resistance:1.1016, 1.1092, 1.1139 The Euro is attempting a tepid recovery against the US Dollar after finding interim support above the 1.08 figure. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1016 exposes the 23.6% level at 1.1092. Alternatively, a push below the 50% […]

EURUSD – Divergence at 50 Fib Level

The euro has been paring its losses against the dollar over the last few days but we are seeing signs that the move higher may have run into a brick wall. The pair did face resistance around the 38.2 fib – 10 July high to 20 July lows – and prior support, but as was […]

USDOLLAR Index Fights Back to Trendline from June Lows

Talking Points: AUDUSD breaks to fresh yearly lows below $0.7270. USDCAD triangulates, looking for a break above C$1.3055. See the DailyFX economic calendar for Thursday, July 23, 2015. Hold the presses on the ‘greenback may be topping’ headlines: the past 24-hours have seen a quick revival by the US Dollar. USD-pairs, particularly those in the […]

Top Trade Idea for July 24th, 2015 –USD/SGD

Sell an “M” Reversal in USD/SGD Conventional wisdom is that the USD will continue to strengthen as the first Fed rate hike approaches. However: Markets rarely go anywhere in a straight line The US Dollar index is up 4% over the last 5 weeks, and more than 20% since February 2014 Some of the most […]

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