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Top trade idea for February 10th, 2016 – USD/JPY

It’s been a busy day so far for central bankers, especially in Japan and the US. As we noted on Monday, the yen has seen massive safe haven / carry trade unwinding flows over the last two weeks, and as a result, USD/JPY is now falling for its 7th consecutive day to a new 15-month […]

Yellen Testimony to Add Clarity of Central Bank Next Steps

Fed Had Forecasted 4 US Rate Hikes in 2016 Changing Macro Conditions Should Force a Revision U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will testify twice during the week when she delivers the semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House and Senate special committees. Each session will have the Fed Chief release a prepared statement and […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Decouples from Oil Price Fall

The loonie was not dragged down by a tumble in oil prices and managed to eke out gains after the Canadian and U.S. bond yield spreads narrowed due to the softness of the big dollar. The USD was being sold off in exchange for investors looking for safety and headed into EUR, CHF and JPY. […]

Yen Safe Haven Flows Dominate Sessions

Global financial turmoil continues to influence safe-haven flows and stall the mighty USD’s 18-month climb. Global growth fears have fixed income dealers looking for clues on the FOMC’s policy trajectory. Currently, the market is unwinding bets that the Fed would tighten rates further this year. Softer U.S economic data continues to raise speculation that the […]

Top trade idea for February 9th, 2016 – AUD/USD

AUDUSD has turned nicely down last week from 0.7240 where we expected to see a new turning point after seven legs of recovery from January lows. Recovery was overlapping and slow so we labeled it as a corrective move, probably it was wave C within a big triangle so new three wave decline can now […]

Bank of Japan Policymakers Feared Negative Rates War, Hit to Bank Profits

Policymakers at the Bank of Japan tussled over the decision to adopt negative interest rates, raising a slew of concerns ahead of a close vote, according to the official summary released Monday. Blindsiding global financial markets on January 29, the BOJ adopted negative interest rates for the first time ever, buckling under pressure to revive […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Slightly Lower After Oil Drop

The USD was under pressure at the start of the week, but the CAD was not of the currencies that capitalized on the big dollar’s pain. Commodity prices tumbled and with that any hopes of loonie gains. Safe haven trades such as EUR, JPY and gold advanced against the USD. The CAD got a temporary […]

Canada: Building permits, December 2015

The total value of building permits issued by Canadian municipalities rose 11.3% to $6.9 billion in December, following a 19.9% decline the previous month. Higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta explained the advance. Construction intentions in the residential sector increased 16.3% to $4.7 billion in December, following a […]

FX Markets Continue To Debate FOMC’s Policy Trajectory

Jan-worst opening month for global equities in 7-years Feb 3-worst day for the dollar in 7-years Recent dollar move would usually be associated with a Fed policy move Is the market pricing in a policy error by Fed? Last week saw the ‘buck’s’ biggest weekly decline against the dollar index in seven-years (-3%). Even U.S […]

Top trade idea for February 8th, 2016 – GBP/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the price has broken from the support. We have two pinbars and a double bottom. On Monday it’s better not to make any big deals and keep an eye on the price of oil. If the GBP/CAD doesn’t fall, we could see two price zones as a target: 2.0325 and […]

Week Ahead in FX – After NFP Miss All Eyes on Janet Yellen

The U.S. added Less Jobs Than Expected in January, But a Rise in Wages Boosted the USD The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report published on Friday revealed a slowdown of the headline jobs number. The American economy added 151,000 jobs in January coming under the market’s forecast of 190,000. In December the economy posted […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Suffers Employment Setback

After an impressive 22,800 new jobs were added in December the forecast called for a lower number in January, but instead the figure released by Statistics Canada was well below expectations of 5,200 new jobs. Canada lost 5,700 jobs in January. The job losses pushed the unemployment rate to 7.2 percent. The energy sector was […]

Canada’s Labour Force Survey, January 2016

Employment was virtually unchanged in January (-5,700 or 0.0%) and the unemployment rate edged up to 7.2%. In the 12 months to January, employment increased by 0.7% (+126,000). Over the same period, the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 7.2%, as the labour force grew at a faster pace than employment. There was little change […]

US Adds 151,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Falls To 4.9%

Job growth settled into a more sustainable pace in January and the unemployment rate dropped to an almost eight-year low of 4.9 percent, signs of a resilient labor market that’s causing wage growth to stir. The 151,000 advance in payrolls, while less than forecast, largely reflected payback for a seasonal hiring pickup in the final […]

Top trade idea for February 5th, 2016 – EUR/JPY

The European Central Bank versus the Bank of Japan – who will win? Both are pursuing a “competitive devaluation” strategy through monetary stimulus, both desperately need the boost a lower currency can deliver to their respective economies. Over the last 7 months, the ECB has the edge, but that may change very soon. The BoJ […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Erases January Losses Ahead of Employment Data

The Canadian dollar rallied versus its American counterpart on Thursday as disappointing data continues to hurt the USD. U.S. unemployment claims recording a rise of 8,000 applications for 285,000 last week when only 2,000 was forecasted. The rise in the number of claims joins both purchasing managers indices (PMI) manufacturing and non-manufacturing, which are leading […]

5 Things The Markets Are Talking About

Credit Suisse shares plunge, oil’s wild ride and it’s Bank of England decision day. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. 1. Credit Suisse plunge Shares in Credit Suisse Group AG dropped to their lowest level since 1991 after the bank posted a loss of 5.8 billion Swiss francs […]

Great Unwind-‘Long’ Dollar Positions Recalibrate

The mighty dollar has been the darling of the forex market for 18-months now, mostly on rate differentials. But has the Fed got it right? So far this year, and after the first Fed rate hike in nine-years last December, the U.S fixed income market continues to price in a Fed policy error. Dealers see […]

Top trade idea for February 4th, 2016 – EURNZD

The eurnzd cross is forming an interesting pattern here that resembles a pennant so far and the beauty of it is that it comes after a so-called truncated zigzag that needs to be retraced minimum 80% and most of the times the retracement level exceeds 100%. That being said, we want to stay on the […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Rises as US Data Takes Down USD

Disappointing Data Questions Fed Decision to Hike as USD Tumbles The loonie is rising today thanks in no small part to two factors. The softer ISM Non-manufacturing data has slowed down and missed expectations at 53.5. The price of oil continues to rise as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC are teasing […]