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Canada: Labour Force Survey, November 2016

After two consecutive months of notable increases, employment was little changed in November (+11,000 or +0.1%). With fewer people searching for work, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 6.8%. Compared with November 2015, overall employment rose by 183,000 (+1.0%), with the number of people working part time increasing by 214,000 (+6.4%). Over […]

US futures Lower Ahead of US Jobs Data

US futures are pointing to a lower open in light trade on Friday morning, as traders await the latest data on the US labour market and gear up for the first rate hike of 2016 from the Federal Reserve. While the November jobs report is not necessarily being talked about with the same importance as […]

NFP Hodge Podge

While US employment data disappointed the market, on the whole, it was a Hodge podge of sorts.  The Unemployment Rate came in at a stellar  4.6% vs. 4.9%; NFP was in at consensus but the key Average Hourly Earnings( AHE)  shocked by missing badly on the downside -0.1% month on month vs. 0.2% expected . […]

Trump Effect Wont be Beat by NFP

Five things the markets are talking about It’s non-farm payroll (NFP) day and the event risk is not for a stronger number, that’s been covered ad nauseam, but for such a disappointing headline print that will unravel some of the baked in Fed rate hike set for Dec 14. The signs of that happening have […]

Top trade idea for December 2nd, 2016 – EUR/USD

The Euro is thinking about completing a bullish head and shoulder pattern. It’s doing so as markets head into the US Jobs data and the Italian referendum this weekend. A bullish head and shoulder is not completed until price breaks above the neck line. Given the potential for volatility surrounding the jobs data and referendum, […]

USD/JPY floats in the Ichimoko Cloud

After a breathtaking rally over the last three and a half weeks, USD/JPY could finally pause for a well-earned rest. Donald Trump’s victory already seems like a long time ago. The most notable beneficiary in the G10 space has off course been USD/JPY. With the reflation trade yield jump in bonds pushing out the USD […]

Trumps Dollar Surge to Die in December?

Five things the markets are talking about In November, Trump’s surprise U.S presidential win was a boon for the mighty dollar via the markets “reflation” trade hopes. Can the ‘big’ dollar gains be added to this month or has the market overshot the mark in their enthusiasm? The death of a deal is always in […]

Top trade idea for December 1st, 2016 – USDCAD

We’re still looking at the USDCAD pair as the latest OPEC saga didn’t bring anything new to the pair in the sense that price is not going anywhere. That being said, back on the daily chart above, the pattern seems to be virtually unchanged. OPEC agreed to cut oil production starting with next January and, […]

OPEC to Save Face with a Disappointing Deal

Five things the markets are talking about No more jawboning – is there a deal? Will they or won’t they announce a production cut? It’s all that dealers and investors want to hear from OPEC in Vienna this morning. Should a barrel of crude be trading above +$50 or below +$40? Whatever the outcome, the […]

Top trade idea for November 30th, 2016 – EUR/CAD

Despite oil’s massive rally on the back of the OPEC news, the Canadian dollar, which tends to correlate strongly with oil prices, has hardly moved against its major rivals. Indeed, the USD/CAD momentarily turned positive. The EUR/CAD is still down on the day, but it too has held its own relatively well. One has to […]

OPEC Cacophony

Overnight saw another high volume, volatile session for forex, driven on the back of strong US economic data. However, it was impossible for currency traders to sidestep OPEC musings given a 4% drop in WTI, after the cacophony from headlines all pointing to the division between the Saudi agenda and the reality of Iran and […]

OPEC’s Poker Game Trump Dollar Moves

Five things the markets are talking about Has the impact of President-elect Trump’s surprise victory on the dollar and commodities peaked or do investors just want to get this event risk week out of the way before again imposing the “reflation” trade again? Capital Markets appear to be in the holding pattern going into the […]

South African Rand Event Risk Today!

A shock no-confidence motion asking President Jacob to step down has been posted this weekend at the ruling ANC’s National Executive Committee meeting. The motion was tabled by the 3 Senior Ministers (a shock in itself) including the Chief Whip. Voting has been postponed until today and should happen sometime in the next few hours. […]

Dollar Succumbs to Profit Taking Ahead of Event Risks

Five things the markets are talking about Expectations that a OPEC production deal would unravel, a possible defeat in Sunday’s referendum in Italy and elections in Austria, coupled with the U.S presidential transition challenge of polls in battleground states by Clinton is dominating early trading. Consolidation in bonds and equities has been relatively muted compared […]

Week Ahead OPEC and US Jobs to Influence Markets

December rate hike boosted by encouraging Fed minutes Market action was interrupted by various holidays around the world but overall the U.S. dollar continued to rebuild the momentum it had after the elections. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in November sent a strong signal about a December rate hike. The CME’s FedWatch […]

Talks on Final Brexit Deal Will Have to Wait

Prime Minister Theresa May will not be able to begin talks on a final Brexit deal until the U.K. has agreed how much money it will pay to leave the European Union and resolved border issues, Maltese Premier Joseph Muscat said. The 27 remaining members of the EU are taking a three-tier approach to exit […]

Dollar Pares Gains to Offer Relief to Commodities

It’s been a slow start to trading on Friday, with yesterday’s bank holiday in the US weighing heavily on volumes and a severe lack of news flow leaving markets void of any significant catalysts. While today is not a bank holiday, trade is likely to remain very thin with many in the US opting to […]

U.S Dollar Stumbles, But Does Not Fall

Five things the markets are talking about It seems that investors are happy to take a breather in this holiday-shortened week as the dollar pares this week’s surge supported by U.S rate differentials. The “reflationary trade” continues to suck money back in to U.S equity markets, while putting further pressure on emerging market FX rates, […]

Top Trade Idea for 11/26/16 – EUR/AUD

  Mathematics is a pure and perfect world. Markets are not. While there are rules for defining technical factors and indicators, sometimes the art of technical analysis requires traders understand what the rules  mean  if they want to avoid crowded trades. This brings us to EUR/AUD. The downward move in EUR/AUD that began mid 2015 […]

Asia FX: The Emerging’s are Submerging

With Thanksgiving and America’s annual turkey cull today, G10 trading was subdued. However with the relentless March of US Yields emerging Asia FX remains under severe pressure even as money continues to flood into  select equity markets and industrial commodities. These are strange times indeed. Instead of gently rolling into what will be for many, […]