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Top trade idea for December 1st , 2015 – USD/JPY

A decline from 125.80 to 116.15 was made in three waves, so we think that pullback from the last few months was nothing else than just another correction within ongoing uptrend that is in play already since 2012. In fact, reversal up from 116, at the end of August, was sharp so it belongs to […]

USD/CAD Loonie Appreciates Despite Lower Oil Price

Canadian Current Account Deficit Shrinks in Third Quarter The Loonie was higher versus the USD after the Canadian current account balance posted a 16.2 billion deficit. The deficit shrank from last quarter’s 16.6 billion. The deficit was expected to improve after the CAD has depreciated against the USD in favour of the Canadian Trade balance. […]

AUDUSD – Rally Continues After Brief Retracement

The Aussie dollar is rallying against its U.S. counterpart again on Monday after undergoing a correction in the second half of last week. The pair broke above the long term descending channel a couple of weeks ago and while the move higher has been far from convincing since, it appears we could see another slow […]

Canada: Q3 Balance of International Payments 2015

Canada’s current account deficit (on a seasonally adjusted basis) narrowed $0.4 billion in the third quarter to $16.2 billion. A lower deficit on trade in goods was partially offset by a higher deficit on cross-border investment income flows. In the financial account (unadjusted for seasonal variation), transactions in direct investment liabilities, largely foreign acquisitions of […]

Top trade idea for November 30th, 2015 – GBP/USD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the monthly candle has closed the previous two months and will be closing down. The target is 1.4560. Due to the general strengthening of USD and according to the cycle, the pound/dollar’s fall could last until the beginning of March 2016. Since the scenario is a weekly one, it could […]

Week Ahead in FX – December to Start With Major Releases

Central Bank Action and NFP to Start the Last Month of the Year The month of December will bring plenty of economic data and monetary policy statements for a currency market that is trading with high levels of uncertainty as geopolitical situations escalate. Next week alone will have the central banks of Australia, Canada and […]

USD/CAD Loonie Lower on Falling Oil Prices

The USD/CAD appreciated 0.617 percent on Friday as the price of oil tumbled more than 3 percent following a stock market rout in China. The currency pair will finish the week trading at 1.3373. Canadian producer prices offered no support to the CAD after falling 0.5 percent on forecasts of a 0.1 percent contraction. Raw […]

UK Economy to Continue to Face Strong Headwinds

While investors in the U.S. do return from the Thanksgiving bank holiday on Friday, we can expect light trade again today with many taking an extra day off and turning it into a long weekend break. That is often the case, particularly when the bank holiday falls so close to the weekend. The quieter schedule […]

UK and Eurozone Data Give Reason For Optimism

UK Consumer Continues to Drive the Recovery in Q3 While the UK has been seeking a more balanced economy with less reliance on the consumer and the services sector as a whole, this was once again the main driver of growth, with rising wages, low interest rates and low energy prices supporting more spending. Weaker […]

Top Trade Idea for 11/27/2015 – Fibonacci says sell EUR/AUD

In a contest between two weakening currencies, who wins? In the current environment, the currency with the largest central bank. I’d back the RBA to box well above its weight, but it’s just not in the same category as the ECB. A continuation of the current downtrend in EUR/AUD seems likely, and even Leonardo Bonacci […]

USD/CAD Loonie Slightly Higher on US Thanksgiving Despite Softer Oil Prices

The USD depreciated 0.0632 percent versus the CAD during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. There was little trading volume during the session. The USD/CAD traded in a range between 1.3320 and 1.3280. The Loonie opened weaker versus the U.S. dollar and as the price of oil dropped as the oversupply narrative grew during the day. As […]

ECB Failure Ruins ‘Short of a Lifetime’

In April, Bill Gross said betting on a decline in the value of German government debt offered the trade of a “lifetime.” Thus far, the strategy has failed to deliver anything like the stellar profits anticipated by Gross. But that says less about the market acumen of the world’s best-known bond investor than it does […]

AUDUSD – Evening Star Casts Doubt on Breakout

After breaking above the descending channel that it has traded within for more than a year, the Australian dollar has failed to gather much momentum against the greenback and once again appears to be struggling to push on. I highlighted on Tuesday (AUDUSD – Bullish Breakout Unconvincing) that while the move above the channel should […]

FX Market Moves Flat Line For Now

U.S markets are closed today for Thanksgiving and will shut early tomorrow. Despite the shortened trading week, dealers and investors have had a plethora of U.S data to consider that could convince an undecided Fed member to shift allegiance. Yesterday’s U.S durable goods data was better than expected (+0.5% vs. -0.3%), while U.S personal spending […]

Top trade idea for November 26th, 2015 – EURAUD

Despite the overall bearish tone the ECB is having in the sense that the central bank is expected to cut the rates deeper into negative territory and to extend the quantitative easing program, I kind of like the EURAUD cross at current levels. The reason for that is the fact that the market seems to […]

USD/CAD Loonie Flat Despite Strong US Economic Data

The USD/CAD was mostly flat as the strong U.S. economic data was cancelled by the surge in oil prices. The pair is trading at 1.3304 and is trading in a tight range ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the States. The U.S. jobless claims posted today instead of Thursday to account for the holiday came […]

Why China ‘Spillover’ Poses Risks for the Euro Zone

China’s economic slowdown could pose risks for the euro area ranging from falling exports, capital outflows and exchange rate fluctuations, the European Central Bank (ECB) said on Wednesday. China is now the second-biggest economy after the U.S. and plays an increasingly major role in global trade. Its economy has slowed each year since 2010 and […]

Huge Amount of US Data in Focus on Wednesday

Attention will be firmly on the U.S. on Wednesday ahead of the Thanksgiving bank holiday, as we get a broad range of important economic indicators that should offer crucial insight into the health of the U.S. economy. When considering whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, there is naturally a lot of […]

USD/CAD Loonie Flies Higher After Oil and Gold Rally

Turmoil in the Middle East as Turkey Downs Russian Aircraft Geopolitical tension triggered a surge in crude prices after Turkey confirmed it had shot down a Russian warplane that it alleged was entering Turkish airspace and refused to communicate. The USD/CAD depreciated as the Loonie was supported by the higher price of crude. The USD […]

Carney Faces Grilling from Treasury Select Committee

Europe is expected to open lower on Tuesday, tracking similar losses in the U.S. and Asia as commodities continue to come under pressure, weighed down by the ongoing appreciation in the dollar. We did see a pop in oil on Monday following a pledge from Saudi Arabia to work with OPEC and non-OPEC members to […]

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