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Top trade idea for September 30th, 2016 – EUR/NOK

Wondering why EUR is holding up so well against major currencies? Keen to trade oil, but put off by higher volatility? EUR/NOK offers exposure to both themes in a single trade. Oil production is 15% of Norway’s GDP, and around 40% of exports. Naturally, the NOK is highly sensitive to oil price moves, and the […]

Too Big to Fail Redux

A combination of Financial Sector Risk in Europe, Geopolitical concerns, and Federal Reserve Board policy debate have injected a degree of apprehension into markets.Moreover, while WTI continues to hold on to gains, not unexpectedly, the latest OPEC oil patch musings are taking an inferior position as traders kick the oil can down the road until […]

ASIA FX – Oil Leaves USD/ASIA On The Boil.

The aftermath of the surprise OPEC agreement is being felt across Asia today. But in different ways. OPEC pulled a proverbial rabbit out of the hat overnight, with a preliminary agreement to cut production albeit by a minuscule amount. As they say, though, “its the thought that matters” and crude duly rocketed 6% in New York […]

Central Bankers, OPEC and Data all Feature Today

It’s likely to be a busy day for financial markets with plenty of economic data, speeches from central bankers and the outcome of the informal OPEC meeting all to come throughout the session. Oil prices have been particularly volatile as of late as traders have sought to pick apart comments from OPEC members and other […]

Top trade idea for September 29th, 2016 – EURUSD

Despite the general belief that the EURUSD is going to the moon, as it is extremely well-bid, my take here is that at least a move lower to mid-1.10 area is in cards. What I’m looking for here is the end of a contracting triangle as part of a terminal impulsive wave and that triangle […]

OPEC Agreement in Principle

The big news in markets this morning is that OPEC has agreed to a preliminary deal to cut production. After endless hours of discussion in Algeria, OPEC reached a consensus that a reduction in oil production is necessary. Market share continues to be the contentious issue despite OPEC’s member countries agreeing on a production limit […]

Top trade idea for September 28th, 2016 – NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar’s recent advance has come to a halt recently after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that interest rates may need to be cut further from their current record low of 2.0%. The NZD’s retreat has been particularly noticeable against the Australian dollar as the AUD/NZD pair has surged back above […]

Oil and Fed’s Fischer in Focus

US futures are pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street on Tuesday, with investors slightly buoyed by the outcome of the Presidential debate. The election in November is one of the biggest risk events facing the markets this year and the way markets responded to the first debate makes it clear which outcome […]

IMF: SNB should focus on Negative Interest Rates

Switzerland’s central bank should adjust its policy to favor negative interest rates rather than currency interventions as it seeks to weaken the Swiss franc’s appeal, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday. The Swiss National Bank’s twin policy of negative rates and intervention has helped reduce deflationary pressures in the country and to weather last […]

USD/CAD Canadian Dollar Lower Ahead of US Presidential Debate

The Canadian dollar is lower on the first day of trading this week even after oil prices jumped close to 4 percent as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other major producers started their meeting in Algiers. The USD is weaker against majors with the exception being the CAD. Dismal data on Friday […]

Bonds, Stocks and Dollar Wary of Trump/Clinton Debate

Five things the markets are talking about Investors’ focus now shifts to the U.S presidential race, which begins this evening (Sept 26, Oct 9 and 19) at Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY at 9pm EDT. Up to this point, the various asset classes have not really being weighing in on the election outcome, but today should […]

Week Ahead Central Bank Patience Left Unanswered Questions for Markets

The BoJ and the Fed kept rates awaiting further economic data The USD is mixed against major currencies after a week filled with central banks statements but little action. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve published their respective rate statements less than 24 hours between them. The status quo was maintained […]

The Great Debate

As we enter the new week, Central Bank Policy qualm has significantly reduced for now. However, the US election risk hovers on the horizon for markets with the first general election debate of the 2016 presidential campaign set for tonight.  Given the highly polarizing and politically divisive cast of characters, could the drama be any […]

NZD: Kiwi’s Wings Get Clipped

The New Zealand Dollar has had a difficult end to the week. Being heavily sold against most of its major counterparts. However, the longer term charts and underlying macro situation mean the picture is not as clear-cut as it seems. New Zealand has been somewhat of a darling recently. A purring economy, an excellent rugby […]

Volatility Compressed, Yield Curves Flatten, Dollar Hangs In

Five things the markets are talking about It’s no surprise to see volatility compressed for a second day and sovereign yield curve flatten as markets and investors process this week’s central banks (FOMC and BoJ) ripple and settle on a coin toss for a December Fed hike. With the Fed on the fence, much of […]

Top trade idea for September 23rd, 2016 – NZD/USD

Here are key sentences from two central bank statements this week Reserve Bank of New Zealand:  “Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range”. US Federal Open Market Committee:  “The Committee judges that the case for an […]

BoE: UK faces ‘Challenging Period’ For Financial Stability

Britain still faces a “challenging period” for financial stability despite resilience seen after the European Union referendum, and rules for banks must remain stay tight, the Bank of England said on Thursday. Britain’s government is keen to ensure London retains its place as Europe’s leading financial center even after the country leaves the EU, but […]

Fed: Everything is Improving, Hence We Lower Growth Forecasts

Five things the markets are talking about Can we shout deja vu loud enough? The Fed came with the same story, just inserted different figures and months. Chair Yellen and company left rates unchanged yesterday, but pointed to an increased likelihood of a hike in November or December – if they don’t, their credibility is […]

Top trade idea for September 22nd, 2016 – GBPUSD

It has been a while since we didn’t cover the GBPUSD pair here and there was a solid reason for it: the UK referendum. Before the vote, it was too risky to trade the pair, after the vote, needed some time to see how the pair settles. Having said that, and despite recent Fed decision […]

BOJ UNCHANGED: Passes the buck to the Fed

The Bank of Japan has left rates unchanged at -0.1 % with the option of cutting rates further in the future. Overall it has changed some operations within its policy, but the general feeling is one of fiddling with the details as opposed to any substantive new policies. Among the changes are, TO BUY JGBS […]