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NFP: Hyperbole in High Gear

Given the scope for massive short-term volatility, hyperbole is in high gear with everyone discussing Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll. Without question, Jobs Day is always a monthly highlight, but given the Federal, Reserve Boards tilt at Jackson Hole, it plainly appears it will take a big surprise to derail a 2016 Fed Hike expectation at this point. […]

Dollar Squeeze Remains Intact

The initial reaction by investors to Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole was one of elation, however, the euphoria has been short lived, as markets now adjust to a more “hawkish” FED – equities down, dollar up and treasury yields rallying. The timing of the U.S’s first-rate hike is always going to be an issue, […]

Yellen Headlines Busy Friday

We have an eventful day in store in the markets on Friday following what has been a pretty quiet week until now, with Janet Yellen headlining with her speech at Jackson Hole this afternoon. Before that though we have a number of pieces of economic data being released throughout the morning and early afternoon which […]

U.S GDP Grows Slower Than First Estimated

The U.S. economy grew less than previously reported last quarter on lower government outlays and a bigger depletion of inventories, capping a sluggish first-half performance propped up mainly by consumer spending. Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 1.1 percent annualized rate, down from an initial estimate of […]

Coin Flip and NFP

AS the Jackson Hole fallout takes shape, it’s clear the Federal Reserve Board was attempting some measure of damage control to repair their failing report card.The Federal Reserve Boards credibility comes under the light time and time again, whether from constant misdirections or divisive policy debates that rage on in the public domain. Afte a […]

Dollar Looks for Support From Yellen

Five things the markets are talking about Capital markets will be fully focused on Fed Chair Yellen’s speech today at Jackson Hole symposium (10am EDT), looking for clues on the timing of the next Fed rate hike. Will they get it? History will say no. Her speech is titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit” […]

Top trade idea for August 26th, 2016 – USD/SGD

The annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole is here at last. MsYellen’s set speech, entitled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit”, may or may not attempt to move market thinking towards a faster interest rate tightening cycle. Before you say “meh”, consider the market positioning. The forward interest rate curve varies but is […]

Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition

Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition Today’s focus will clearly be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, which is scheduled to be delivered at 10 am EST. According to the Curriculum, the topic is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future”, which is, in itself, a rather academic-sounding piece and unlikely […]

Dollar’s Asymmetric Rally “Unlearns What We Have Learn’t”

Another quiet day in Asia ahead of Fed Governor Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole. The USD has moved asymmetrically in last 24 hours. Rallying against some pairs and falling against other. Today we take a look at some of the most “interesting” moves and ponder whether positioning, Jackson Hole or other “forces” are at play. […]

Is the Fed setting the stage for a lower normal rate horizon?

Five things the markets are talking about Currently, the Fed is saying one thing, but the market is trading on something else. Recent official rhetoric expects a rate increase sometime this year, but the U.S yield curve is not pricing that in at the moment. In fact, the first full +25bp increase is not priced […]

Top trade idea for August 25th, 2016 – EURAUD

This EURAUD cross looks bullish as market is forming a possible head and shoulders formation that had the dip right from the potential bouncing place. This is the 5th time the pair is jumping from that area and it open the gates for a prolonged move above 1.50. Ahead of a US dollar driven event […]

Caution Remains Ahead of Yellen Speech

The trend of marginal moves while pushing record highs in US indices looks set to continue on Wednesday, with futures pointing to a marginally higher open on Wall Street. This week in particular there has been a keen focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium, at which Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak. […]

South African Rand Slammed!

The South African Rand (Zar) plunged 3.5 % as news emerges of a police summons and a separate investigation of the Finance Minister by tax authorities. The South African Rand (ZAR) collapsed 3.5 % against the USD in a matter of minutes during the New York session. Moving from 13.50 to 14.05 before settling in […]

The Waiting Game : Jackson Hole

USDJPY Traders have been reticent overnight with the currency mired in tight ranges. BOJ stimulus talks versus the Fed dovishness outlook: Traders are stuck in limbo, aware that there is some BOJ uncertainty on how they will deal with a strengthening Yen; while the near-term Fed outlook is equally clouded, not the best landscape to […]

Big Dollar Not So Mighty

Five things the markets are talking about With investors reluctant to place large directional bets ahead of the Jackson Hole address by Fed chair Yellen this Friday has asset price moves remaining somewhat contained. Despite this, the ‘mighty’ dollar is beginning to look a tad sicklier ahead of this morning’s U.S open. With the lack […]

Top trade idea for August 23rd, 2016 – USD/NOK

On the 4h chart of crude oil we can see that price made a nice rally from the lows, for now in three waves but because of strong bullish momentum with sharp price action up to 161.8% Fibonacci ratio, we believe market made wave 3) as part of a bullish impulse. That said, current downward […]

Rising Yields Melt Silver in Asia

Fridays bond sell-off sends commodities and precious metals lower in Asia. Watch global bond yields ahead of Jackson Hole. Monday mornings at 6 am Singapore can be an emotional time for traders. The fact that many of us are at work then aside! Monday 6 am is a magical witching hour when electronic trading starts […]

Markets Fish For Fed Clues

Five things the markets are talking about Most of the big’ dollars strength has come on the back of a number of ‘bullish’ Fed member comments over the past few sessions. Late last week, Fed members Dudley and Williams both suggested that they would not completely rule out an interest rates hike in September. Last […]

Week Ahead USD on Retreat Ahead of Central Bank Summit

The Jackson Hole Symposium will focus on how to build monetary policy for the future The U.S. dollar has depreciated across the board after mixed comments from Fed members and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes showed that even though some members are in favor of a rate hike, they […]

R-Stars to Falling Stars

R-Stars to Falling Stars  Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is turning into this year’s most anticipated event when it comes to US monetary policy. While Jackson Hole rarely disappoints the “Econ-Geek” in all of us, traders are on high alert after a befuddling policy divide amongst Fed Members and will […]