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Canada’s April Inflation Slowest in Two-Years

Canada’s inflation rate last month was the slowest since October 2013, falling below the central bank’s target band on a drop in energy costs. The consumer price index rose 0.8 percent in April from a year ago after March’s 1.2 percent pace, Statistics Canada said Friday from Ottawa. The core rate, which excludes eight volatile […]

Euro to Look Past German IFO Survey, US Dollar May Fall After CPI Data

Talking Points: Euro Unlikely to Yield Follow-Through on German IFO Survey Outcome US Dollar May Decline Even if US CPI Data Tops Economists’ Forecasts See Economic Data Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The German IFO survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index […]

Top Trade Idea for May 22nd, 2015 – AUD/NZD

At its last meeting the New Zealand Reserve Bank moved to an easing bias on interest rates. By contrast the Australia’s RBA toned its easing bias back to only a fraction short of neutral at its meeting. The combination of these two moves delivered a strong rally for the Aussie against the Kiwi, allowing it […]

Chart Of The Day For May 22,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1059, 1.0934, 1.0808 Resistance:1.1214, 1.1310, 1.1466 The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected but an Inverted Hammer candlestick now hints a rebound may be brewing. Near-term resistance is at 1.1214, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily […]

Dollar Deflated by Fed Expectations and Eurozone Data

Fed: more talk and more data No June rate hike has the dollar under pressure European PMIs mixed, fragile recovery expected K. retail sales supports sterling There was nothing groundbreaking revealed yesterday in the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Market price action would suggest that it was an uninspired event ticking off most […]

Euro Losses on Soft PMI Data May Be Offset By ECB Meeting Minutes

Talking Points: Euro May Look Past Soft PMIs as ECB Minutes Dent Stimulus Expansion Bets US Dollar Corrects Lower as FOMC Minutes Fail to Boost Rate Hike Outlook See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App May’s preliminary set of Eurozone PMI figures headlines the data docket in European trading hours. […]

Chart Of The Day For May 21st,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1059, 1.0934, 1.0808 Resistance:1.1214, 1.1310, 1.1466 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence hinted at ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1059 exposes the 50% level at 1.0934. Alternatively, a turn above the […]

European Open – BoE, Fed and ECBs ELA in Focus

European indices are expected to pare yesterday’s gains early in the session on Wednesday having received no real direction from Wall Street or Asia overnight. Investors are also eyeing minutes from the latest Bank of England and Federal Reserve meetings today, as well as the latest European Central Bank decision on its emergency liquidity assistance […]

Top trade idea for May 21st, 2015 – EURUSD

This is the fashionable usdcad pair and I am both bullish and bearish on the pair as the current setup suggests the move to the downside is a so called double combination. If that is the case, then it means it is a three waves structure and three waves structures in the a wave position […]

Fed Minutes Eyed, Rate Hike Chatter Ensues

Rate divergence trade trends again ECB in direct conflict to “trade of a lifetime” FOMC minutes to provide direction for dollar supporters BoE not worried about deflation The rule of thumb is that central banks prefer not to be seen as interfering with markets unless they are out of sync with fundamentals or preventing policies […]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD into Trend Support with FOMC Minutes Due

Talking Points: EURUSD snaps uptrend, heads to former resistance near $1.1050. GBPUSD holding April 13 uptrend after BoE minutes earlier. See the May forex seasonality report. The US Dollar is attempting at carving out a bottom after a five-week downtrend, but it faces a very legitimate test today when the April FOMC minutes are released. […]

Top Trade Idea for May 20th, 2015 – EUR/USD

On Monday, we highlighted a short-term bearish Butterfly pattern on EURUSD, noting that the pattern “suggest[ed] a move down toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire ABCD pattern at 1.1220, though the 38.2% retracement at 1.1310 could serve as a more achievable near-term target” (see “EURUSD: Greece’s Doomsday Clock is Nearing Midnight” for more). […]

Chart Of The Day For May 20th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak,  Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1104, 1.0992, 1.0881 Resistance:1.1242, 1.1327, 1.1466 The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected, with sellers now threatening to push through the 1.11 figure. Near-term support is at 1.1104, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis […]

EUR Bears Put the Boot In

ECB members deliver single currency a massive blow Bund curve flattens on front-loaded comments EUR breaks through psychological €1.1200 handle BoE’s Carney not worried about deflation Last month’s Bund rout that caused yields to spike and Treasury-Bund spreads to tighten supported the EUR. Any comments that would flatten the Bund yield curve would have an […]

British Pound May Weaken on Soft UK Inflation Data

Talking Points: Pound May Decline as Soft UK CPI Data Cools BOE Rate Hike Speculation NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Inflation Survey Undercuts Interest Rate Cut Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App April’s UK CPI data is in focus in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate […]

Top Trade Idea for May 19th, 2015 – AUD/USD

Today’s Top Trade Idea – AUDUSD AUDUSD has turned up in the past few months, but most likely only temporary as rally from the low is having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristics of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since […]

Chart Of The Day For May 19th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1242, 1.1104, 1.0992 Resistance:1.1327, 1.1463, 1.1565 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence hinted at ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1242 exposes the 38.2% level at 1.1104. Alternatively, a turn above the […]

European Open Investors Shake Off Greek Risk

European futures are pointing to the upside ahead of the first trading day of the week suggesting a more positive sentiment among traders despite Greece’s apparent insistence on walking blindly towards default without any consideration for the consequences. For a long time I have been confident that Greece will eventually give in to the demands […]

New Zealand Dollar Slumps as Interest Rate Expectations Deteriorate

Talking Points: NZ Dollar Slumps as Markets Bet on Most Dovish RBNZ Outlook Since 2009 Aussie Dollar Fails to Hold Gains After Comments from RBA DepGov Lowe US Dollar Corrects Higher After Dropping the Most in a Month Last Week The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade amid deteriorating RBNZ policy expectations. Priced-in bets […]

Chart Of The Day For May 18th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1335, 1.1257, 1.1130 Resistance:1.1463, 1.1565, 1.1668 The Euro advanced for a fourth consecutive day, hitting the highest level in over three months against the US Dollar. Near-term resistance is at 1.1463, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis […]

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