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Top trade idea for October 27th, 2016 – NZDUSD

The chart above is the NZDUSD pair and it is showing a contracting triangle that seems to form at the end of a complex correction. Having said that, it means that it will virtually have no measured move as no limits on the future price action can be imposed. In plain English, it’s a tricky […]

Short on Themes Long on Dollars

Australian Dollar  It was hard to ignore the AUD surge post-CPI data with the headline beating (0.7% vs. 0.5% QoQ, 1.3% vs. 1.1% YoY). With the core print failing to provide a clear signal, the +70 pips move higher caught a few by surprise. I suspect the dramatic uptick had more to do with positioning, […]

Big Dollar Dips Amid Lack of Trading Clues

Five things the markets are talking about Despite the tight trading ranges scattered across the various asset classes, investors remain vulnerable to some unwelcome pockets of volatility ahead of an upcoming busy fortnight. Again, most of the market price moves have been instigated right at the top, from central bankers. Yesterday it happened to be […]

Top trade idea for October 26th, 2016 – AUD/JPY

The Australian dollar rose further overnight after domestic consumer inflation data came out stronger-than-expected. CPI rose by 0.7% in the third quarter compared to 0.5% expected and 0.4% in Q2. After the post-data rally, the Aussie has been unable to climb further in the European session and the bullish run could end quickly if investors […]

Copper Flirts With Yearly Support

The copper market can be a confusing beast. Along with iron ore, it is that most bellwether of the commodities to the health of the global economy. It is rather surprising then that as oil and natural gas rally, coking coal hits new highs on the Dalian Futures Exchange and drags iron ore with it; Copper has […]

USD U-Turn

US equities turned lower overnight as the US Consumer Confidence Index printed well below market expectations. The WTI traded heavy after Russia appeared to backtrack from any production cap accord. We could see further pressure on equity markets because oil prices plunged in late NY trade after the API reported a much larger than expected […]

Dollar Reluctantly Grinds Higher For Now

Five things the markets are talking about Rate differentials continue to support the “big” dollar, as it grinds higher across the board after a number of Fed speakers yesterday again lent their support for higher rates. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said December was “most likely” the best time for a tightening of […]

The Dollar Beat Goes On

It was a very subdued session in both equities and currencies in Asia yesterday where range trade was the order of the day. The US dollar continued consolidating and exhibited some weakness in London, but the greenback ticked higher after a cheery report on the manufacturing sector when the US manufacturing PMI for October comfortably beat […]

Dollar Bulls Await Fed Speakers Support Today

Five things the markets are talking about With less than three-weeks until the U.S. elections, concerns over a “hard” Brexit and earnings season underway, is expected to see market volatility slowly pick up. Despite current U.S election polls indicating that Ms. Clinton is consolidating her Democratic lead over Trump, there are number of risks: A […]

Week Ahead US Growth to Boost Dollar

December interest rate hike optimism has lifted the USD to 8 month highs Fed member comments and economic indicators showing sustained growth have convinced investors that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise the Fed funds rate when its meets at the end of the year. The CME FedWatch tool is now at a 70 percent […]

Fed Speeches Headline Quiet Day

US equity markets are expected to open a little lower on Friday, building on small losses on Thursday with indices still looking vulnerable to sharp declines even as earnings continue to surpass expectations. Once again it seems any rally off the lows in US indices doesn’t have the legs to go beyond the previous highs […]

Currency Markets in a Flux

Australian Dollar The broader risk-off move that kicked in late last week has triggered currency sell-off in the EM complex while weighing negatively on high-risk currencies such as the Australian dollar. Add in the greenback   flexing its muscle on the back of mounting US rate hike speculation, and  it’s clear why the Aussie is […]

Top trade idea for October 21st, 2016 – USD

Markets appear to have made up their mind about the US election. The US Dollar/Mexican Peso exchange rate is back to its medium term trend and looks a chance of falling below it in coming weeks Traders have adopted Dollar /Peso as an election trading proxy because Donald Trump’s policies are seen as damaging theMexican […]

Draghi Strongly Hints at December QE Decision

We may have seen plenty of volatility throughout the ECB press conference today but in reality, all Mario Draghi and the ECB actually did was confirm what most people already assumed. What was most interesting today was not what the ECB did discuss – which appears to have been very little – but what they […]

Investors Buoyed by Debate, Attention Now on ECB

A missed opportunity for Donald Trump at last night’s final Presidential debate may well be supporting US futures ahead of the open on Thursday, while European markets are currently treading water ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference. Trump headed into the final debate trailing Clinton in a number of polls and […]

Shooting Stars to Falling Stars

Markets  are focusing on the US economic data flow and the latest musing from the ECB ECB Draghi did more to cloud the picture rather than provide any clarity into the ECB thoughts. Allowing committee members more breathing room, which offers more opportunity to view the market reaction to the ECB tapering “sounding balloon “ […]

Top trade idea for October 20st, 2016 – AUDNZD

Above there is the AUDNZD cross that is shaping up a bearish setup that most likely started with the last move above 1.07. The idea behind this trade is that the current move should be one destined for parity, so it should be no wonder the take profit is close to that area. Trading with […]

Presidential Debate and Fed Speeches Key Today

US equity markets are expected to open a little lower on Wednesday, tracking similar marginal losses in Europe as traders look ahead to the third Presidential debate, appearances from Fed policy makers, earnings and oil inventory data. Markets have been very responsive to how the election campaign has gone so far, particularly those most vulnerable […]

Market Focus on Commodity Currencies

Australian Dollar Rockets Higher  Equity markets have posted further gains over the past 24 hours, spurred on by the rally in oil markets when WTI came within a hair of $ 52.00  per barrel, posting a 15-month high at 51.94 on the back of the massive inventory draw on the DOE data. Commodity currencies, championed […]

WTI/USD – US Crude Steady at $50, Crude Oil Inventories Next

US crude has ticked lower in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, WTI/USD futures are trading at $49.84 per barrel. Brent futures are trading at $51.38, as the Brent premium stands at $1.54. On the release front, US CPI edged upwards to 0.3%, matching the forecast. Core CPI dipped to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of […]