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Top Trade Idea For December 24th, 2014 – EUR/USD

It is understandably a very quiet day with the stock markets in Italy and Germany closed for the Christmas Eve. Elsewhere, most traders are probably out today too although that does not necessarily mean the markets won’t move. In fact, the lack of volume means there could be bouts of high volatility. Still, that will […]

Chart Of The Day For December 24th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2173, 1.2080, 1.1929 Resistance:1.2246, 1.2324, 1.2418 The Euro dropped for a fifth consecutive day against the US Dollar, setting a new 28-month low against the US Dollar. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2173 exposes the 76.4% level at 1.2080. Alternatively, a reversal above the 50% Fib at 1.2249 opens […]

USD Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast

Talking Points: Dollar Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast Euro Finds Too Little Traction, Too Late Yen Crosses Advance after BoJ Downgrades Growth Assessment Dollar Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast A drain in liquidity often translates into a moderation in heavy exposure or one-sided […]

Chart Of The Day For December 23rd,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2173, 1.2080, 1.1929 Resistance:1.2246, 1.2324, 1.2418 The Euro paused to digest losses after sinking to a new 28-month low against the US Dollar but positioning hints a move below 1.22 is ahead. Near-term support is at 1.2173, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 76.4% […]

The Three Things Fueling FX Market Volatility Throughout 2015

The dearth of currency market volatility in 2014 that sank to historic lows last summer appears to be consigned to history. Put simply, there are too many economic and geopolitical variables that erupted over the latter half of the year that ignited the FX market, and those themes will carry over into 2015. The U.S. […]

US Dollar May Rise if Home Sales Top Estimates, Boosting Fed Outlook

Talking Points: New Zealand Dollar Down on Soft 4Q Westpac Consumer Confidence Data Risk Appetite Firms in Overnight Trade, Driving the Aussie Dollar Upward US Dollar May Rise as Home Sales Data Amplifies Fed Rate Hike Outlook The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much 0.5 percent on average against its leading […]

Chart Of The Day For December 22nd,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2173, 1.2080, 1.1929 Resistance:1.2246, 1.2324, 1.2418 The Euro sank to a 28-month low against the US Dollar, with sellers now aiming to breach the 1.22 figure. A daily close below the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2173 exposes the 76.4% level at 1.2080. Alternatively, a turn above the 50% Fib at 1.2249 opens the […]

Week in FX – Patient Fed Soothes Jittery Markets

Fed’s message brings season tidings BoJ Keeps Status Quo Abe’s cabinet to approve stimulus soon Market makes a beeline for the ‘turn’ Capital markets are poised to fall silent as the holidays are about to begin in earnest. It’s in hot pursuit of the broad-based risk-on rally that has given U.S. equities their biggest two-day […]

BoJ remains steady, yet bullish markets push higher

FOMC continues to drive bullish sentiment BoJ keeps stable yet election provides renewed mandate German GFK survey looking to top off strong week. The end of a memorable week in the markets, which seemed likely to go out with somewhat of a whimper given the relative lack of events to get the market moving. However, […]

Yen Down on Risk Appetite Swell But Year-End Flows May Fuel Turn

Talking Points: Return of Year-Capital Flows May Reboot Pre-FOMC Price Action Trends Yen Down, Aussie and NZ Dollars Higher as Risk Appetite Swells Overnight See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The safe-haven Japanese Yen slumped while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollar advanced as risk appetite firmed overnight. […]

Top Trade Idea For December 19th, 2014 – USD/RUB

Russian Rouble Roulette It’s hard to go past the Russian rouble as the traders’ choice, given the extraordinary volatility. Extreme price movements demand traders respond with aggressive risk management, but the potential rewards for a good entry are attractive. Trading USD/RUB is not for the inexperienced. However, traders willing to adapt to the environment may […]

Chart Of The Day For December 19th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2246, 1.2173, 1.2080 Resistance:1.2324, 1.2418, 1.2569 The Euro continued downward for a second day against the US Dollar, with prices now threatening December’s swing bottom. Near-term support is at 1.2246-49, the December 8 low and the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that exposing the 61.8% level at 1.2173. Alternatively, a reversal […]

Will Negative Swiss Rates Reduce CHF Demand?

SNB goes negative in January Market assess policy moves by Fed and SNB EUR under pressure from intervention demands Yen bears relieved with higher U.S. yields Over the past 24 hours, capital markets have managed to navigate the last of the significant central bank scheduled meetings for this calendar year with the conclusion of the […]

Data heavy day ahead with focus on UK, US and Germany

Fed takes more cautious approach on rates and retains “considerable time” pledge; German Ifo surveys and UK retail sales the focus this morning; Lots of US data to come later including jobless claims and PMI readings. Investors were given a small boost overnight which is driving index futures higher ahead of the open as the […]

Swiss Franc Sinks as SNB Surprises with Negative Interest Rates

Talking Points: Swiss Franc Sank After SNB Unexpectedly Unveiled Negative Interest Rates US Dollar May Turn Lower as Markets Rethink FOMC Outcome Implications See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Swiss Franc slumped after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly dropped interest rates into negative territory at -0.25 percent. The […]

Chart Of The Day For December 18th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2324, 1.2249, 1.2173 Resistance:1.2418, 1.2569, 1.2676 The Euro turned sharply lower against the US Dollar, with sellers reclaiming a foothold below the 1.24 figure. A daily close below the intersection of falling wedge top resistance-turned-support and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2324 exposes the 50% level at 1.2249. Alternatively, a turn above the […]

Top Trade Idea For December 18th, 2014 – AUDUSD

Yesterday’s FOMC decision and press conference was followed by a US dollar buying mood all over the dashboard as the Fed basically gave a timing for the possible future rate hike: a couple of more meetings away. However, if I were to pick an opposite view, I would pick audusd as a good candidate, and […]

Volatility reigns as BoE and FOMC look set to dominate

Russian confidence at a low as ruble plummets Eurozone begins slowly turning around Falling UK CPI crucial ahead of US release MPC minutes key as falling inflation could change outlook FOMC announcement focused around potential language change. Market volatility appears to be the order of the week, as a range of economic and political announcements […]

Top Trade Idea For December 17th, 2014 – GBP/USD

As strange as it sounds, the tone of trade for the rest of the week, and perhaps even the rest of the year, could hinge on just two words. The Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy statement and summary of economic projections at 2:00pm ET (19:00 GMT), followed by the press conference with Fed […]

Chart Of The Day For December 17th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2491, 1.2397, 1.2340 Resistance:1.2566, 1.2642, 1.2735 The Euro advanced against the US Dollar as expected having completed a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.2566, the 50% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at 1.2642. Alternatively, a reversal below the 38.2% Fib at […]