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Focus remains on US consumer after retail sales surprise

Oil prices are weighing heavily on European stocks again on Friday as the sell-off after the close on Thursday finally gets its opportunity to impact energy companies on this side of the pond. That said, US futures are also looking very heavy ahead of the open, suggesting that risk aversion is continuing to spread throughout […]

Pound May Weaken on UK CPI, Euro to Look Past PMI Data

Talking Points: US Dollar Corrected Lower in Overnight Trade, Loonie in the Lead Ruble Bounce on Surprise Russia Interest Rate Hike Unlikely to Last UK CPI May Weigh on British Pound, Euro to Look Past PMI Data The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having edged higher in the preceding 24 hours. The Canadian […]

Top Trade Idea For December 16th, 2014 – EUR/GBP

In today’s analysis we will take a look at EURGBP which is in downtrend actually since 2008 as showing on the weekly chart below. On that count we are looking at a double zigzag, now with wave C) in progress that can complete wave (Y) sometime next year. But notice that pair for now still […]

Chart Of The Day For December 16th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2362, 1.2246, 1.2147 Resistance:1.2501, 1.2658, 1.2913 The Euro paused to consolidate gains having reversed higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 1.2501 exposes the 23.6% level at 1.2658. Alternatively, a turn below wedge top resistance-turned-support at 1.2362 opens the door for […]

Markets continue lower as Abe retains super-majority

Oil gaps lower but recovers early in the session to trade above Friday’s close; Japan’s coalition retains super majority in pointless election; Confidence in Japanese manufacturing sector slips after country falls into recession; PBOC expects 7.1% growth in 2015 which may concern investors; Start of the week quiet but things will pick up. The negativity […]

ST Technicals Offer Moment of Reflection in EUR-crosses

Talking Points: EURUSD now in symmetrical triangle as it grapples with wedge. EURAUD rising channel may come into question below 1.4972. December forex seasonality foresaw a modestly weaker Euro. Short-term technicals may be at odds with long-term perspectives at present moment, putting many of the EUR-crosses on watch for some volatility over the next few […]

Top Trade Idea For December 15th, 2014 – USD/CHF

After three successful USD/NOK (Norwegian krone) long trades in recent weeks, it’s time to look elsewhere. In so doing, we’re not suggesting the oil price fall has ended. However, we have noticed price moving and closing below a four month uptrend line that may be worth some consideration. We’re talking about “the franc” (the Swiss […]

Chart Of The Day For December 15th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2373, 1.2246, 1.2146 Resistance:1.2501, 1.2658, 1.2913 The Euro advanced against the US Dollar as expected having completed a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.2501, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1.2658. Alternatively, a reversal below wedge top resistance-turned-support at […]

Week in FX – Risk Steadies Dollar Ahead of Elections and FOMC

Crude prices to continue to suffer Japan’s Abe a winning cert on Sunday? No U.S inflation pressures along supply chain More Central Banks to apply pressure next week Investors have just completed navigating through a week that was not for the fainthearted. The market was peppered with news of new record lows for crude (West […]

Europe back in the red as oil falls to five and a half year low

Oil price decline unwinds some of the retail sales gains overnight; WTI crude hits five and a half year low, falling below $60 a barrel; US government avoids shut down as spending bill narrowly passes; Mixed Chinese data as better retail sales offset disappointing industrial production; Few data points of note today but nothing major. […]

Yen May Rise Anew as Russian Trade Data Weighs on Risk Appetite

Talking Points: Russian Trade Balance Data May Rekindle Risk Aversion into the Week-End Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise on Upbeat US Data, NZ Dollar Corrects Lower See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Emerging-market jitters may renew pressure on risky assets in the final hours of the trading week. […]

Top Trade Idea For December 12th, 2014 – EUR/JPY

On Monday (Sunday night), the Tankan manufacturing indices for Q4 are released in Japan, along with Tokyo condominium sales. Weaker industrial production and capacity utilisation numbers this morning have expectations trending down, but the Yen has not fallen with them. This may mean that the weaker reads are already priced in. With no major European […]

Chart Of The Day For December 12th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.2384, 1.2246, 1.2144 Resistance:1.2501, 1.2658, 1.2913 The Euro paused to consolidate gains having reversed higher as expected after putting in a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. A daily close above the 14.6% Fibonacci retracementat 1.2501 exposes the 23.6% level at 1.2658. Alternatively, a turn below wedge top resistance-turned-support at 1.2384 opens the door for […]

AUDNZD breaks trendline and tests major support

The AUDNZD pair has been selling off sharply over the past two days. This break below a key trendline yesterday brought about more selling and has found support on a major level. That being said, this week’s break brings the pair into a much more dangerous position and makes it look like we could see […]

Euro Traders Prepare for Direct Stimulus Update

Talking Points: Dollar and S&P 500 Suffer Worst Declines Since October Panic Euro Traders Prepare for Direct Stimulus Update Swiss Franc Potential Lopsided in SNB Rate Decision Dollar and S&P 500 Suffer Worst Declines Since October Panic ‘The Dollar’s safe haven status is broken’? That seems to be a claim be made more often these […]

Chart Of The Day For December 11th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 12397, 1.2246, 1.2142 Resistance:1.2501, 1.2658, 1.2913   The Euro broke out upward from a Falling Wedge chart formation as expected after showing a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.2501, the 14.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 23.6% level at 1.2658. Alternatively, […]

Top Trade Idea For December 11th, 2014 – EURGBP

Against all odds as it may seem, I am really bullish the Euro as a whole and eurgbp in particular even after today’s TLTRO’s in Europe were released. The fundamental picture doesn’t look pretty for the euro but, despite that, technical picture is quite bullish. The cross here has been falling in a beautiful waterfall […]

USD: Big Year-End Squeeze in the Making?

China incites negative momentum trading Aussie temp cools, Kiwis will know later Is it Easy Street for Abe? Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, along comes another wave of negativity that less nimble investors are drowning in as capital markets prepare to closeout an extraordinary year. Disappointing data […]

Gold turns bearish as fib holds strong for second day

Gold has rallied well since reaching lows of $1131.88 on 7 November but throughout this rally, there’s been a feeling that this was nothing more than a retracement in the longer term downtrend. The only question was how big a retracement it was going to be. The yellow metal has reached a key level in […]

Japanese Yen May Outperform Amid Profit-Taking on Top 2014 Trades

Talking Points: Yen Outperformed on Safe-Haven Flows Amid Risk Aversion in Asian Trade Quiet European, US Data Docket May Keep Seasonal Forces in the Spotlight See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.8 percent on average against its leading […]