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Top Trade Idea For November 27th, 2014 – EURUSD

The chart above is quite a simple analysis in the sense that the eurusd is forming on the lower time-frames (actually ended) a terminal impulsive move and this pattern is visible on the four hours and the hourly chart as well. What is important at this move is that this lows the market made at […]

FX Market Volatility Will Return with Vigor in 2015

Rate Divergence Will Spur Volatility Commodity Prices under Pressure Emerging Markets Stuck in a Hard Place Central bank interest rate divergence, geopolitical events, and global growth expectations have been the three primary drivers of FX market volatility in late 2014, and these themes will continue to dominate the currency trade well into 2015. With so […]

Quiet day sees focus upon overall market sentiment

Quiet day sees focus upon overall market sentiment US GDP and consumer confidence paint alternate pictures UK GDP ahead. European markets are expected to move higher this morning, following a largely positive session overnight in Asia. The inability of the US markets to reach fresh highs did little to dampen investor sentiment elsewhere despite a […]

Japanese Yen May Rise as Year-End Capital Flows Begin to Emerge

Talking Points: Japanese Yen May See Recovery as Year-End Capital Flows Start to Emerge British Pound Looks to 3Q GDP Revision to Inform BOE Rate Hike Outlook US Dollar May Rise on Fed Tightening Bets if News-Flow Proves Supportive Seasonal factors may increasingly factor into price action as the on-coming Thanksgiving holiday in the US […]

Top Trade Idea For November 26th, 2014 – EUR/JPY

Today it is all about the dollar as three days’ worth of US macroeconomic pointers will be published in the space of just a few hours to avoid conflicts with Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday. The US data dump could lead to a volatile afternoon session for the major currency pairs denominated in the buck. Speculators who […]

Chart Of The Day For November 26th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.2710 Support: 1.2360, 1.2213, 1.1974 Resistance:1.2535, 1.2599, 1.2770 The Euro managed to claw some lost territory against the US Dollar after find support below the 1.24 figure. Near-term support is in the 1.2357-60 area, marked by the November 7 low and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing […]

Inflation report hearing to dominate European session

Nikkei rises despite less dovish minutes OPEC meeting expected to see oil output cut German GDP expected to confirm avoidance of recession BoE inflation report hearing put pressure on Carney over falling inflation. A cautious yet positive start to the day is expected for the European markets today, following the establishment of record highs in […]

Dollar Reaches Fresh Five-Year High with Little Enthusiasm

Talking Points: Dollar Reaches Fresh Five-Year High with Little Enthusiasm Euro Rebounds as ECB Ranks Break on Push Towards Open Stimulus Yen Crosses Heading for Breakout as Currency Warning Weighs Dollar Reaches Fresh Five-Year High with Little Enthusiasm Another day and another five-and-a-half year high for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar). […]

Chart Of The Day For November 25th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.2710 Support: 1.2360, 1.2213, 1.1974 Resistance:1.2549, 1.2599, 1.2770 The Euro may have resumed its longer-term decline against the US Dollar after prices completed a Flag continuation chart pattern last week. A daily close below the 14.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1.2360 exposes the 23.6% level at 1.2213. Alternatively, a reversal above falling trend line resistance at […]

USDCAD finds moving average support

The USDCAD pair finally broke below a major support level on Friday, yet with a major moving average now limiting further downside, it will be interesting to see how the pair reacts between these two key levels as a means to gauge the direction in coming weeks. The weekly chart below shows that the pair […]

Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise, Yen Drops as China Expands Stimulus

Talking Points: Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Rise, Yen Drops as China Expands Stimulus Effort Euro Unlikely to Find a Lasting Catalyst in German IFO Survey Outcome See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade after China expanded monetary stimulus efforts, cutting […]

Top Trade Idea For November 24th, 2014 – GBP/NZD

Since late September, GBP/NZD (‘the pound’ against the New Zealand dollar) has fallen 1400 pips. We feel that this trend will continue and will discuss a trade for expected move lower. The recent move higher provides an opportunity to trade it short. This eight-hour GBP/NZD chart starts at the early November 2014 high of 2.0812 […]

Chart Of The Day For November 24th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.2710 Support: 1.2334, 1.2272, 1.2194 Resistance:1.2397, 1.2494, 1.2559 The Euro looks to have resumed its decline against the US Dollar after prices recoiled from trend line resistance set from mid-October. Near-term support is at 1.2334, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the 61.8% level at […]

Week in FX Europe – Draghi Hands Ammo to Euro Bear

Draghi’s Dovish Remarks Suffocate EUR Market expects ECB to announce new measures in December Greater Euro/U.S rate divergence needs to be priced The euro bear got a subtle hint yesterday to consider “not” booking any EUR profits just yet, all because the EUR bull happened to be blinded by flash purchasing mangers’ index (PMI) numbers. […]

Dovish Draghi and PBOC stimulus drive markets higher

Draghi’s dovish message gives markets a massive boost; PBOC surprise stimulus helps extend gains, while the aussie and commodities also rally; Quiet end to the week seen with no major announcements scheduled. What was initially looking like a quiet day for the financial markets due to the lack of scheduled economic events has become a […]

EUR/USD Breaks Channel from November Low, AUD/USD Skewed by PBoC

Talking Points: EURUSD slides after Draghi’s comments on a QE program. AUDUSD jumps after PBoC announces surprise rate cut. See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. The People’s Bank of China’s decision today to cut its key interest rates in an effort to liberalize the exchange rate and boost consumption (their words, […]

Top Trade Idea For November 21st, 2014 – EUR/AUD

The Euro is forming a Gartley 222 pattern against the Aussie Dollar. The Gartley is a 3 part correction “A” to “B”; “B” to “C” and finally “C” up to “D”. The move being corrected is usually labelled XA In this case the CD swing has arrived at a 78.6% Fibonacci correction of XA  My […]

Chart Of The Day For November 21th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.2710 Support: 1.2482, 1.2397, 1.2334 Resistance:1.2559, 1.2621, 1.2684 The Euro advanced against the US Dollar as expected after prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the intersection of a falling trend line and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracementat 1.2559 exposes the 50% level at 1.2621. Alternatively, a reversal below rising trend […]

EUR Bull Blinded by Flash Numbers

Fed reinforces “normalization” China flash manufacturing PMI dips to 6-month low Weak Flash numbers has EUR hobbling Federal Reserve announcements usually end up having the largest market impact, and yesterday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s October meeting minutes were not to be the exception. However, the data ended up being a “non-event” as […]

EURAUD resistance likely to hold at 200 dSMA

The EURAUD pair has been trading within a range over the past month and a half. On a long term outlook, it looks like we could be within a head and shoulders formation, yet for the time being, it looks like we could get some downside following a move to the upper end of the […]