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Top trade idea for December 2nd, 2016 – EUR/USD

The Euro is thinking about completing a bullish head and shoulder pattern. It’s doing so as markets head into the US Jobs data and the Italian referendum this weekend. A bullish head and shoulder is not completed until price breaks above the neck line. Given the potential for volatility surrounding the jobs data and referendum, […]

WTI/USD – US Crude Continues Rally on OPEC Agreement

Oil prices have climbed sharply on Thursday, continuing the strong gains which marked the Wednesday session. In North American trade, WTI/USD futures are trading at $51.48. Brent crude futures punched past the $50 level on Wednesday and have climbed to $54.15, its highest level since August 2105. The Brent premium stands at $2.67. On the release […]

XAU/USD – Gold Slips to 10-month Lows, Nonfarm Payrolls Ahead

Gold has lost ground in the Thursday session, continuing the downward trend we’ve seen for most of the week. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce of gold is $1165.75. On the release front, unemployment claims disappointed. The indicator climbed to 268 thousand, its highest level since July. The markets had expected a […]

USD/JPY floats in the Ichimoko Cloud

After a breathtaking rally over the last three and a half weeks, USD/JPY could finally pause for a well-earned rest. Donald Trump’s victory already seems like a long time ago. The most notable beneficiary in the G10 space has off course been USD/JPY. With the reflation trade yield jump in bonds pushing out the USD […]

Trumps Dollar Surge to Die in December?

Five things the markets are talking about In November, Trump’s surprise U.S presidential win was a boon for the mighty dollar via the markets “reflation” trade hopes. Can the ‘big’ dollar gains be added to this month or has the market overshot the mark in their enthusiasm? The death of a deal is always in […]

Top trade idea for December 1st, 2016 – USDCAD

We’re still looking at the USDCAD pair as the latest OPEC saga didn’t bring anything new to the pair in the sense that price is not going anywhere. That being said, back on the daily chart above, the pattern seems to be virtually unchanged. OPEC agreed to cut oil production starting with next January and, […]

OPEC Agrees to Cut Production

OPEC clinched a deal to curtail oil supply, confounding skeptics as the need to clear a record global crude glut — and prove the group’s credibility — brought about its first cuts in eight years, Bloomberg News reports. OPEC will reduce production by 1.2 million barrels a day to 32.5 million a day, a delegate […]

Oil: Black Gold or Fools Gold?

The eyes of the world are on Vienna today as OPEC formally meets and announces whether it has made a production cut agreement or not. The direction of world crude prices will be dictated by its results. It has seemed like a  very long time since OPEC surprised us with a preliminary deal on cutting […]

OPEC Deal Uncertain as Ministers Meet in Vienna

European equity markets are expected to open a little mixed, while oil is seeing some profit taking following yesterday’s sharp losses as OPEC ministers prepare to meet in Vienna. Moves in oil have been a little wild again recently, with the build up to the OPEC meeting offering the usual mix of rhetoric that leaves […]

OPEC to Save Face with a Disappointing Deal

Five things the markets are talking about No more jawboning – is there a deal? Will they or won’t they announce a production cut? It’s all that dealers and investors want to hear from OPEC in Vienna this morning. Should a barrel of crude be trading above +$50 or below +$40? Whatever the outcome, the […]

Top trade idea for November 30th, 2016 – EUR/CAD

Despite oil’s massive rally on the back of the OPEC news, the Canadian dollar, which tends to correlate strongly with oil prices, has hardly moved against its major rivals. Indeed, the USD/CAD momentarily turned positive. The EUR/CAD is still down on the day, but it too has held its own relatively well. One has to […]

Iran Says It Won’t Cut Oil Production

Iran, OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, said it won’t cut output as members of the exporter group met in Vienna before a crucial summit on Wednesday. The country isn’t prepared to reduce supply, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said in the Austrian capital. Saudi Arabia is insisting that Iran and its neighbor Iraq participate in a […]

XAU/USD – Gold Dips as GDP, Consumer Confidence Climb

Gold has reversed directions on Tuesday and lost ground, erasing the gains from the Monday session. In North American trade, the spot price for one ounce of gold is $1187.75. On the release front, US data was impressive. Preliminary GDP sparkled in the third quarter, as the economy expanded 3.2%, above the forecast of 3.0%. The 3.2% […]

OPEC Cacophony

Overnight saw another high volume, volatile session for forex, driven on the back of strong US economic data. However, it was impossible for currency traders to sidestep OPEC musings given a 4% drop in WTI, after the cacophony from headlines all pointing to the division between the Saudi agenda and the reality of Iran and […]

OPEC’s Poker Game Trump Dollar Moves

Five things the markets are talking about Has the impact of President-elect Trump’s surprise victory on the dollar and commodities peaked or do investors just want to get this event risk week out of the way before again imposing the “reflation” trade again? Capital Markets appear to be in the holding pattern going into the […]

WTI/USD – US Crude Sharply Higher Ahead of Key OPEC Meeting

US crude has started the week with strong gains. In Monday’s North American session, WTI/USD futures are trading at $46.83. Brent crude futures are trading at $48.12, as the Brent premium stands at $1.29. On the release front, there are no US events on the schedule. On Tuesday, the US will release Preliminary GDP for the […]

XAU/USD – Gold Edges Higher, Markets Eye US GDP Report

Gold prices have edged upwards to start off the week. In Monday’s North American session, the spot price for one ounce of gold is $1191.09. There are no US releases on Monday. On Tuesday, the US will release Preliminary GDP for the third quarter, with the markets expecting a sharp gain of 3.0%. The other key indicator […]

South African Rand Event Risk Today!

A shock no-confidence motion asking President Jacob to step down has been posted this weekend at the ruling ANC’s National Executive Committee meeting. The motion was tabled by the 3 Senior Ministers (a shock in itself) including the Chief Whip. Voting has been postponed until today and should happen sometime in the next few hours. […]

Dollar Succumbs to Profit Taking Ahead of Event Risks

Five things the markets are talking about Expectations that a OPEC production deal would unravel, a possible defeat in Sunday’s referendum in Italy and elections in Austria, coupled with the U.S presidential transition challenge of polls in battleground states by Clinton is dominating early trading. Consolidation in bonds and equities has been relatively muted compared […]

Week Ahead OPEC and US Jobs to Influence Markets

December rate hike boosted by encouraging Fed minutes Market action was interrupted by various holidays around the world but overall the U.S. dollar continued to rebuild the momentum it had after the elections. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in November sent a strong signal about a December rate hike. The CME’s FedWatch […]