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Top trade idea for October 21st, 2016 – USD

Markets appear to have made up their mind about the US election. The US Dollar/Mexican Peso exchange rate is back to its medium term trend and looks a chance of falling below it in coming weeks Traders have adopted Dollar /Peso as an election trading proxy because Donald Trump’s policies are seen as damaging theMexican […]

Gold Volatility Higher After ECB Lack of Updates

Gold in euro terms saw increased volatility Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did not provide any guidance on a potential expansion of the monthly bond-purchase program. The comments came after the ECB left interest rates unchanged. “We didn’t discuss tapering or the horizon of purchase programs,” he said during the question and […]

Draghi Strongly Hints at December QE Decision

We may have seen plenty of volatility throughout the ECB press conference today but in reality, all Mario Draghi and the ECB actually did was confirm what most people already assumed. What was most interesting today was not what the ECB did discuss – which appears to have been very little – but what they […]

Investors Buoyed by Debate, Attention Now on ECB

A missed opportunity for Donald Trump at last night’s final Presidential debate may well be supporting US futures ahead of the open on Thursday, while European markets are currently treading water ahead of the ECB monetary policy decision and press conference. Trump headed into the final debate trailing Clinton in a number of polls and […]

Shooting Stars to Falling Stars

Markets  are focusing on the US economic data flow and the latest musing from the ECB ECB Draghi did more to cloud the picture rather than provide any clarity into the ECB thoughts. Allowing committee members more breathing room, which offers more opportunity to view the market reaction to the ECB tapering “sounding balloon “ […]

Top trade idea for October 20st, 2016 – AUDNZD

Above there is the AUDNZD cross that is shaping up a bearish setup that most likely started with the last move above 1.07. The idea behind this trade is that the current move should be one destined for parity, so it should be no wonder the take profit is close to that area. Trading with […]

Oil Gets Ready To Move…Down?

Tonights EIA Inventory figures will have more importance to crude oil’s direction than the 3rd Presidential Debate. We look at a couple of possible storm clouds that may spoil oil’s party. West Texas Intermediate has spent the last week consolidating in a roughly 49.50/51.00 range. The pace of OPEC “we can do it” headlines have slowed, […]

XAU/USD – Gold Hits 2-Week High as Housing Starts Sinks

Gold has posted slight gains on Wednesday, continuing the upward trend we’ve seen all week. In the North American session, the metal is trading at a spot price of $1268.90 per ounce. On the release front, Building Permits jumped to 1.23 million, beating the forecast of 1.17 million. However, Housing Starts slipped to 1.05 million, well […]

Presidential Debate and Fed Speeches Key Today

US equity markets are expected to open a little lower on Wednesday, tracking similar marginal losses in Europe as traders look ahead to the third Presidential debate, appearances from Fed policy makers, earnings and oil inventory data. Markets have been very responsive to how the election campaign has gone so far, particularly those most vulnerable […]

Market Focus on Commodity Currencies

Australian Dollar Rockets Higher  Equity markets have posted further gains over the past 24 hours, spurred on by the rally in oil markets when WTI came within a hair of $ 52.00  per barrel, posting a 15-month high at 51.94 on the back of the massive inventory draw on the DOE data. Commodity currencies, championed […]

WTI/USD – US Crude Steady at $50, Crude Oil Inventories Next

US crude has ticked lower in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, WTI/USD futures are trading at $49.84 per barrel. Brent futures are trading at $51.38, as the Brent premium stands at $1.54. On the release front, US CPI edged upwards to 0.3%, matching the forecast. Core CPI dipped to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of […]

XAU/USD – Gold Posts Slight Gains, Inflation Numbers Mixed

Gold has shown slight gains in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, the metal is trading at a spot price of $1261.02 per ounce. On the release front, US CPI edged upwards to 0.3%, matching the forecast. Core CPI dipped to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. On Wednesday, the US will release Crude […]

EURGBP – 7-Day Support Broken After UK CPI Data

Sterling is on the rise on Tuesday, spurred on by higher than expected UK inflation data that cast doubt on whether the Bank of England will still consider easing monetary policy again this year. The rally in the pound prompted a break of technical support against the euro, which had held over the last week […]

Entering the Risk Event Vortex

US CPI data overnight was a little bit weaker than expected overnight with the headline rate on consensus at 0.3% month on month, while the core reading was slightly softer at 0.1 $ vs. .2 % expected month on month. The USD sold off initially on the core print, but quickly retraced, given the volatile […]

Top trade idea for October 18th, 2016 – USD

USD indexwas in  big sidewayspatternunfoldingsince start of 2015; slowandoverlappingpriceactionwith a personalityof a contra-trend movementthatlookscompleted. Wesee it partlyas a flatcorrection in blackwave IV, a threewavestructurewherefinalwave C should be madebyfivewaves. Well, wehaveseen a nicedeclinefrom November of 2015 counted in fivelegs, but as anending diagonal as shown on a dailychart. That’s a reversalpatternthatalreadycaused a strongbounce in May, so […]

Gold Flat After Drop in Empire State Survey

Gold remain flat Monday despite a decline in growth within the New York regional manufacturing sector. Monday the New York Federal Reserve said the general business conditions index in its Empire State manufacturing survey fell to a reading of -6.8 in October, following September’s reading of -2. Economists were expecting to see a reading of 1.1. […]

UK 100 – Double Top Remains in Play

The UK 100 has started showing some weakness over the last week or so after failing to make a significant new high for a second time in the space of a week. Since then, the ascending trend line – 24 June lows – has come under some pressure, firstly on Thursday when a late recovery […]

Central Bank Speeches Galore on Monday

European equity markets are expected to open a little lower on Monday, with investors looking ahead to a week filled with big economic reports and events and numerous companies reporting on the third quarter. We saw some late selling in equity markets on Friday, with the FTSE, Dow and S&P all experiencing a late dash […]

Lull Before the Storm

It’s been an incredibly quiet start to the week as most currencies remain rangebound, but don’t let this sense of calm fool you, markets may be poised to explode. There is a  multitude of macro themes dominating the current Forex landscape, a Fed hike, ECB, and  BoJ tapering fears, and of course the US Elections. There […]

Top trade idea for October 17th, 2016 – EUR/AUD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the price has left the triangle formation downwards. The trend line was broken with this departure. The target for the downward movement is 1.3774. The time the target regions will be reached is from 11th to 28th November of this year. As our entry point we need to look from […]