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The Great Debate

As we enter the new week, Central Bank Policy qualm has significantly reduced for now. However, the US election risk hovers on the horizon for markets with the first general election debate of the 2016 presidential campaign set for tonight.  Given the highly polarizing and politically divisive cast of characters, could the drama be any […]

NZD: Kiwi’s Wings Get Clipped

The New Zealand Dollar has had a difficult end to the week. Being heavily sold against most of its major counterparts. However, the longer term charts and underlying macro situation mean the picture is not as clear-cut as it seems. New Zealand has been somewhat of a darling recently. A purring economy, an excellent rugby […]

It’s Kickoff Time !

Traders have been patiently waiting for the next 24 hours to unfold which should be chalk filled with high-risk events with BOJ ,FED &RBNZ rate decisions not to mention the much-anticipated speech from the new RBA Governor  Phillip Lowe.  However, it does feel that expectations are low heading into this round of CB meetings and […]

Pound Woes Continue, Focus on Fed and BoJ

Five things the markets are talking about Tomorrow’s double-header with the Fed concluding its meeting and the BoJ announcing something has potential to rock markets, especially FX which is still playing catch up with both bonds and equity price moves for this month. In regards to sovereign yield curves, Fed expectations are controlling the front-end, […]

Asia treads water ahead of “Big Wednesday”

A mostly quiet session in Asia today. We have a Japanese holiday, “Respect for the Aged Day,” although I’ve not noticed anyone being any nicer to me here in Singapore this morning. The street seems to have gone into hibernation mode ahead of the BoJ and FOMC “Big Wednesday.” The USD continues to be generally […]

Certain about Uncertainty

Overnight, US economic data disappointed as retail sales fell for second consecutive month, nudging the December US interest rate hike probability to fall below 50%. The focus now shifts to tonight CPI which could have a significant impact on rate hike expectations, even more so in the wake of the tepid Retails Sales print. A benign […]

Top trade idea for September 14th, 2016 – AUD/USD

On the daily chart of AUD/USD we are observing big consolidation pattern in fourth wave which is definitely not a simple one. It’s a very complex structure that is underway for around 12 months now so we can expect a very strong break down once the pattern is finished. Latestsubstructuressuggestthatwave IV can be a triangle, […]

Complex Equation Unfolds

Despite limited moves in Asia Market yesterday, one could cut the tension on APAC trading desks with a knife as dealers were busy rethinking strategies within this complex Central calculus. As expected, yesterday’s Brainard bounce in Bond and Equity sentiment was short lived as both markets sold off again overnight, but adding to the equity […]

Fed Fatigue Does Not Dissuade Dollar Bulls

Five things the markets are talking about The uptick in volatility, especially in equities and fixed income in September, is based on two factors – a feared shift in Fed interest rate policy (more/sooner hikes) and a concern over the sustainability/pace of asset purchases at the BoJ and ECB. Yet for all the volatility, certain […]

US Rate Hike Jitters Grip Markets

Markets in SGD, IDR, MYR  are closed for a holiday Today US Rate Hike Jitters Grip Markets  We could be on the verge of a powerful concurrence of factors as volatility takes grip. Traders have been quick to price in worst case scenario as interest rate rise jitter start taking hold and has resulted in […]

Brainard Rules the Day ?

While the primary focus overnight was the ECB’s latest musing and in summation, the Governing Council dispirited some in the market by not announcing an extension of QE. Also, while this explains some of the risks of price action, at the end of the day, it could be an unanticipated announcement that Fed member, Lael […]

Top trade idea for September 8th, 2016 – AUDUSD

The audusd pair above is forming a rising wedge on this time frame and despite the recent jump higher and overall bullish character of the market, short side should be favored. The pain for bears was seen for bulls as well as the more aggressive the selling was, equally aggressive buyers stepped in. This makes […]

Complex Conundrum

The market has turned into a consolidative mode with the Key ECB rate decision on tap later this evening. For the most part, markets were quiet with European equities mirroring the movements in crude oil prices, which continued to rebound. Fed members Williams and Lacker took to the airwaves expounding their case for a September […]

NZD: The Kiwi gets ready to Fly!

A number of formations on the longer term charts are pointing to a higher NZD as the USD melts away post a very poor ISM last night. For those of you who don’t know, the Kiwi is the national bird of New Zealand. It is a flightless bird, and it is also the nickname for […]

Déjà Vu All Over Again

The primary sentiment driver overnight was the dismal non-manufacturing (services) ISM report, which declined from 55.5 to 51.4, the lowest level since early 2010. The USD nosedived on the print as the re-pricing for September FOMC rate hike fell to less than 20  % probability. The significance of the ISM services print cannot go understated […]

Market Awaits Next Key Driver

In commodity markets, the focus was on oil. The WTI rose some 5% as a meeting between energy ministers from Russia and Saudi Arabia raised hopes that a  production freeze announcement would occur at next month’s OPEC meeting in Algiers. However, when the Saudi oil minister stated there is no explicit agreement and further commented that […]

Asia Trading Post G-20. Central Banks Cross Their Fingers

With the USA and Canada on holiday today, trading in Asia has been subdued as we await Europe and continue to digest Fridays disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls number. The weekend’s G-20 produced a few nice dinners I am sure and more than its usual quota of vacuous statements on world trade, working together, stability and the […]

The Day of Reckoning

The key European and US equity benchmarks have closed flat overnight as Traders take to the sidelines ahead of tonight’s Non-Farm Payroll. The DAX had traded up 1% in early European time, spurred on by a much better-than-expected China manufacturing PMI report and the tail wind from the active UK PMI, only to reverse gains on a […]

Asia Pacific Equities and a look at Wheat

A stronger USD has seen Asia Equities diverge today in Asia. Meanwhile wheat, along with other commodities continues to look more like chaff than wheat. The strengthening USD has not been a boon for already weak commodities this week. With the USD rallying and most commodities priced in dollars, they are becoming more expensive in […]

Rate Hike Fever Continues to Grip Markets

US rate hike fever continues dominating the Foreign Exchange landscape. The US dollar is trading favourably, despite the next major catalyst, Friday’s Jobs Report. The market is stuck between the good cop, bad cop performance from Yellen and Fischer at Jackson Hole, which likely struck a similar a chord with the majority of Fed policymakers.  Australian […]

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