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OPEC Cacophony

Overnight saw another high volume, volatile session for forex, driven on the back of strong US economic data. However, it was impossible for currency traders to sidestep OPEC musings given a 4% drop in WTI, after the cacophony from headlines all pointing to the division between the Saudi agenda and the reality of Iran and […]

Top Trade Idea for 11/26/16 – EUR/AUD

  Mathematics is a pure and perfect world. Markets are not. While there are rules for defining technical factors and indicators, sometimes the art of technical analysis requires traders understand what the rules  mean  if they want to avoid crowded trades. This brings us to EUR/AUD. The downward move in EUR/AUD that began mid 2015 […]

Asia Quiet on a Tokyo Holiday

Trading across all asset classes has been subdued in Asia today with a holiday in Tokyo and ahead of Thanksgiving in the United States. The market continues to catch its breath after an exciting two weeks with only AUD/USD showing signs of life in Asia trading today. AUD was buoyed by more frenzied buying of […]

Holiday Induced Consolidation

With the USD consolidation of sorts and the UST 10’s stabilizing around 2.31-32% as the global bond market sell-off abates, G-10 traders’ attention was diverted to the oil patch as the usual raft of OPEC headlines will provide crosswinds. The latest of which is not sitting well with traders, as WTI turned lower after it […]

Reality Checks and the US Dollar

A quiet weekend of news has seen the USD finally see some profit taking and even some whispers of “a meaningful technical correction.” However, before we get too carried away, I thought it would be interesting to see just how much of a technical correction we would need now to put a hole under the […]

US Dollar Marches on in Asia

The US Dollar marches on supreme today again Asia FX and G10 currencies, as both the USD Index (DXY) and US 10 Year yields hit new highs. There seems to be a global competition on as to who can be the ugliest horse in the glue factory against the USD at the moment. The USD […]

Another Day another Dollar

The December Rate hike probability is set near 100%, and the UST 10’s are nearing 2 .38 %. The USD bulls have shown little fear by taking the greenback into the weekend trading at, or near, recent highs. Given the sheer USD buying volumes of late and with the DXY surging, traders are positioning for […]

There’s No Stopping Me Now for the USD

No Stopping Me Now  The focus overnight was on Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, which reaffirmed what everyone has suspected – that barring some major hic-up in the US economic data releases December lift off is a green light. Her comments were perceived USD bullish, but it was the release […]

Top trade idea for November 17th, 2016 – EURAUD

The EURAUD cross shown above is forming a contracting triangle that is supposed to be part of a larger correction for the b-wave of a bigger degree. That being said, this contracting triangle should be a bullish one, but the e-wave is most likely not completed yet. The thing is that price should not break […]

The Beat Goes On

The 10-year US Treasury sell-off took a respite overnight despite the strong US retail sales data reinforcing December’s elevated rate hike probabilities. The market was quick to notice of comments from usually dovish leaning Fed, Tarullo, who mentioned that rate hikes were ‘more on the table’ than before, while speaking on finance and the economy, […]

Just Can’t Get Enough ,USD’s

The primary sentiment driver for USD is the bond markets as selling continues across Global Capital Markets. The yield on 10-year Treasuries has increased above to 2.20% as pricing for a December FOMC rate hike is now pegged all in at 96%, after Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan sounded extremely confident the Fed would move […]

EM Trump Slump or Trump Dump

A monumental week in currency markets as   US Bond yields soared weighing on Emerging Markets sentiment. After an effervescent week in equity markets, they retraced on Friday after the energy sector swooned burdened by the prospect that OPEC will not cap supply. Also, precious metals have plummeted as the safe – haven appeal diminishes amid […]

Top trade idea for November 11th, 2016 – AUD/USD

Capitulation. A market phenomenom that should be on every traders’ radar. This market dyanamic has many different expressions, but the underlying principle remains. A market direction is widely accepted as inevitable. It is the consensus trade. The market fails to move in the “right” direction, and then moves the other way, catching out all those […]

Another U-Turn

Risk markets have experienced a dramatic U-turn in the past day, as the Trump election risk premium evaporated in the wake of FBI Director Comey’s comments that there was no evidence of criminal actions in the latest batch of Clinton emails. Across the board, there has been an uptick in risk appetite, bolstered by anticipation […]

OANDA Trading Desk : Political Risk

Political risk, a favourite word for Global Market participants, is taking on new meaning as a calming outcome for markets. It is hard to imagine who will win this highly politically divisive race for the White House. Most of the early market focus has been on FBI Director Comey’s comments earlier today when he stated […]

OANDA Trading Desk: US Election Risk meets Brexit

It is extremely hard to shift focus from anything other the US elections, given the abundance of cacophony and headline risk associated with the event; however, Brexit risk hit the limelight overnight after the High Court ruled against the UK government, which means that the government requires Parliament’s approval to trigger Article 50. US Election […]

Election Fevered Frenzy

The market remains obsessively focused on US election poll gazing. The risk remains hobbled, but signs of trader fatigue are setting in. The Fed committee left the Fed funds rates on hold but noted the case for a rate increase continues to strengthen, so the big question now is what could derail a December Rate […]

Shifting Tides

A case of pre FOMC and US election jitters gripped cross asset markets overnight dampening market enthusiasm, which ensnared trading desk with a severe case of the fidgets. November has gotten off to a frenzied start with shifting US election tracking polls now show Clinton and Trump in a neck and neck race for the […]

China Data Surprise has Markets Keeping Its Powder Dry

Five things the markets are talking about There are probably three potential events that could overturn this market’s expectations of a December Fed hike (fed funds are pricing in a +75% chance) – a Trump presidency, a disappointing NFP and/or a volatile equity market. Now that the FBI is reopening its inquiry into Clinton’s use […]

Too Predictable

Focus remained on the US elections overnight obscuring the Central Bank narrative that lies ahead. After all was said and done the most recent tracking polls, which includes the latest FBI account, indicates Clinton continues to steady her lead in the polls  47-41 %, but this news has been largely overshadowed by plunging OIL prices […]

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