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AUDUSD – Rally Continues After Brief Retracement

The Aussie dollar is rallying against its U.S. counterpart again on Monday after undergoing a correction in the second half of last week. The pair broke above the long term descending channel a couple of weeks ago and while the move higher has been far from convincing since, it appears we could see another slow […]

Top Trade Idea for 11/27/2015 – Fibonacci says sell EUR/AUD

In a contest between two weakening currencies, who wins? In the current environment, the currency with the largest central bank. I’d back the RBA to box well above its weight, but it’s just not in the same category as the ECB. A continuation of the current downtrend in EUR/AUD seems likely, and even Leonardo Bonacci […]

AUDUSD – Evening Star Casts Doubt on Breakout

After breaking above the descending channel that it has traded within for more than a year, the Australian dollar has failed to gather much momentum against the greenback and once again appears to be struggling to push on. I highlighted on Tuesday (AUDUSD – Bullish Breakout Unconvincing) that while the move above the channel should […]

Top trade idea for November 26th, 2015 – EURAUD

Despite the overall bearish tone the ECB is having in the sense that the central bank is expected to cut the rates deeper into negative territory and to extend the quantitative easing program, I kind of like the EURAUD cross at current levels. The reason for that is the fact that the market seems to […]

AUDUSD – Bullish Breakout Unconvincing

The Australian dollar has traded within a descending channel against the greenback for more than a year now but in the last couple of days it appears to have finally broken above it, which could be a very bullish signal. The pair broke above the channel on Friday and despite seeing immediate downside pressure on […]

USD at 7-month high against EUR

Despite the holiday shortened trading week, dealers and investors continue to prep for next months two-day FOMC meeting. Divergence in monetary policy remains the theme in FX ahead of several December important central bank meetings. Not surprisingly, the dollar remains on the offensive across the major pairs as short-term U.S rates continue back up in […]

Top trade idea for November 20th, 2015 – AUD/USD

The Aussie Dollar made a strong break above trend line resistance yesterday. In doing so it completed a bullish head and shoulder pattern. This was mainly about $US weakness following a strong run. However, the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars were amongst the best performers against $USin this correction This slow stochastic indicator in the box […]

FX: Fears Subside, Rate Divergence Dominate

Central Banks monetary policy divergence continues to be the catalyst in the FX market. Similar to other recent terror attacks, capital markets response to the weekend events in Paris have been short lived. The brief risk-off trading has finished as investors continue to covet the dollar in anticipation for the first Fed hike in nearly […]

Top trade idea for November 13th, 2015 – AUD/USD

When a trend is well established it’s easy to become complacent about potential reversals. Many traders have done well this year riding the AUD/USD downtrend, and shorted yesterday’s bounce to 0.7150, where the price met the down trend line. However, there are signs that AUD/USD is forming a bear trap. Some traders look for a […]

Draghi Stokes Easing Expectations

Despite the EUR being confined to a tight trading range since last Friday’s upbeat non-farm payroll (NFP) report (€1.0681-1.0790), today’s well-timed dovish rhetoric delivered by Draghi is keeping capital markets on its toes. However, he is not the only one, later this morning no fewer than five Fed speakers are due to hit the wires […]

Will ECB Draghi Provide Today’s FX Clue?

Position adjustments by investors in thin trading conditions have managed to punish the dollar on this Veteran’s Day. The mighty buck has given back some of this week’s gained ground across the board. The EUR printed an intraday six-month low outright yesterday (€1.0682) as the market prepares itself for looser monetary policy from the Eurozone […]

Top trade idea for November 5th, 2015 – AUDUSD

Back to the audusd pair as, while this is a relative small time frame, it has the power of coming after a triple zigzag to the downside on the daily chart and the move that followed seems to be an impulsive move on its own. Because of the retracement level after the first wave in […]

UK Construction Eyeing Fourth Quarter Recovery

European markets are poised for another higher open on Tuesday, taking the lead from the more bullish sentiment that drove US indices to some decent gains at the start of the week and much of Asia higher overnight. Monday’s economic releases were broadly quite encouraging albeit with the odd bit of concerning data hidden within […]

Carry Trades Dominate FX

Currently, many of the major currency pairs remain confined to a tight trading range, and owing to the lack of intraday volatility, investors are required to be fleet of foot when looking for meaningful returns. Last month saw the return of the “carry trade”(+4.7% in Oct. vs. -8.3% in August when China devalued the yuan). […]

FX: Jobs And Central Banks To Keep Investors Guessing

This is expected to be another action packed week, one that will be heavily scrutinized by investors, as its speckled with a number of central bank announcements (Reserve Bank of Australia this evening and the Bank of England on Thursday), and as per usual, more Fed talk. The week concludes with Friday’s granddaddy of economic […]

Top trade idea for October 30th, 2015 – AUD/NZD

This weekend the New Zealand All Blacks play the Australian Wallabies in the final match of the Rugby World Cup 2015. These teams between them trampled the cream of European Rugby (sell EUR, sell GBP), and the might of the USA, South Africa and Japan (sell USD, ZAR, JPY). Now, the fate of AUD/NZD may […]

“Wait and See” For Fed, While Riksbank Shakes It Up

Central banks are making it rather boring for speculators at the moment. The majority of G7 policy makers have upped the dovish rhetoric by talking their own books and successfully walking their respective currencies lower. However, most of these underperforming currencies are trading in a confined range, and certainly in an orderly fashion that is […]

US Dollar, Market Sentiment at the Mercy of the Federal Reserve

Talking Points: US Dollar and Market-Wide Sentiment at the Mercy of the Federal Reserve Australian Dollar Sinks as Soft CPI Data Fuels RBA Rate Cut Speculation See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours puts the monetary policy announcement from the Federal Reserve […]

Top trade idea for October 23rd, 2015 – AUD/USD

Last night’s statement by Mario Draghi now poses a clear question for markets about the extent to which the Fed will diverge from other central banks. While there is still a good case for the Fed to hike US rates in December, the ECB’s dovish stance increases the odds that it might delay. Paradoxically, this […]

Pound May Rise as Carney Plays Down Rates Impact of Brexit Vote

Talking Points: Pound May Rise as BOE’s Carney Plays Down Rates Impact of Brexit Vote Australian Dollar Gains as Labor Party Agrees to Support FTA with China See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Scheduled commentary from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is in the spotlight in European trading […]

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