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Top trade idea for August 25th, 2016 – EURAUD

This EURAUD cross looks bullish as market is forming a possible head and shoulders formation that had the dip right from the potential bouncing place. This is the 5th time the pair is jumping from that area and it open the gates for a prolonged move above 1.50. Ahead of a US dollar driven event […]

Caution Remains Ahead of Yellen Speech

The trend of marginal moves while pushing record highs in US indices looks set to continue on Wednesday, with futures pointing to a marginally higher open on Wall Street. This week in particular there has been a keen focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium, at which Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak. […]

The Waiting Game : Jackson Hole

USDJPY Traders have been reticent overnight with the currency mired in tight ranges. BOJ stimulus talks versus the Fed dovishness outlook: Traders are stuck in limbo, aware that there is some BOJ uncertainty on how they will deal with a strengthening Yen; while the near-term Fed outlook is equally clouded, not the best landscape to […]

Big Dollar Not So Mighty

Five things the markets are talking about With investors reluctant to place large directional bets ahead of the Jackson Hole address by Fed chair Yellen this Friday has asset price moves remaining somewhat contained. Despite this, the ‘mighty’ dollar is beginning to look a tad sicklier ahead of this morning’s U.S open. With the lack […]

R-Stars to Falling Stars

R-Stars to Falling Stars  Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is turning into this year’s most anticipated event when it comes to US monetary policy. While Jackson Hole rarely disappoints the “Econ-Geek” in all of us, traders are on high alert after a befuddling policy divide amongst Fed Members and will […]

Top trade idea for August 19th, 2016 – AUD/USD

The Aussie has lost upward momentum against $US this week. On the chart this is indicated by: A trend peak under the upper Bollinger Band following the strong momentum peak above it and The slow stochastic indicator now trending down from the overbought zone. From here, a break below the 20 day moving average would […]

The Fed: A Great Divide or A Growing Rift

By any measure of price action, the longer Traders have to dwell repetitively and ruminate on the Fed policy the less US dollar friendly they are likely to become. From the rhetoric making the rounds  , it would seem that Federal Reserve officials face a very complex, and possibly divisive  debate over the conundrum of […]

Fed Serving Chicken and Waffles for Breakfast.

Not surprisingly, the Fed served up another plate of mixed messages very much reflective of the confusing signals dished out earlier in the week by various Fed Speakers.  Traders were hoping for some tclarity in the wake of Tuesday’s “hawkish “comments from Fed Vice-Chair William Dudley, but none was on offer. Not to mention we […]

Abe’s Arrows Fail As USD/JPY Eyes 100.00

MORE ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT FROM JAPAN SEES USD/JPY PERCHED OMINOUSLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL. The urgency of Japans extra budget and the limits of Quantitative Easing were starkly revealed yesterday as the Japanese economy unexpectedly showed 0% GDP growth in the June quarter of 2016. This followed an anaemic growth of 0.5 % in Q1. […]

RBA Minutes Failed to Make a Splash

While  the minutes from the RBA board’s August interest rate meeting didn’t sound any major alarm bells, it did not provide any outlook for interest rates, leaving the market to its interpretation The RBA minutes release was anticipated to be a non-event and from the RBA, it appears pretty much business as usual. With the lack […]

US Consumer Wallets Remain Closed

US Consumer Wallets Remain Closed The US retail sales figures disappointed, raising doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year. The US consumer needs to start spending for the Fed to be satisfied the economy is firing on all cylinders. Consumer reluctance to open their wallets left many stumped and even […]

Bell Ringing- Bellwethers

Bell Ringing- Bell Weathers  The three bellwether US indexes, the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ, all closed at record highs yesterday, in part assisted by a rebound in energy stocks after a 4% bounce in crude oil. In addition, the US Retail Sales Report for July is expected to be buoyant after US retailers reported better than […]

Carry on my Wayward Markets

Australian Dollar – Carry is King Higher Yield currencies are leading the charge, stoked by booming risk appetite. The market is buying into the underlying premise that the US economy is robust, but not churning at sufficient levels to warrant any immediate policy response. This argument was reinforced by a less optimistic US Non-Farm Productivity […]

NFP : Beyond the Goldilocks Zone?

NFP and Beyond the Goldilocks Zone? The market’s trepidations concerning the US labour market are definitively in the rear view mirror after the second consecutive resilient report. The 255k rise in non-farm payrolls transcended even the most optimistic of expectations. It is easy to check off good-news boxes within this stellar jobs report and tough […]

Top trade idea for August 5th, 2016 – GBP/AUD

Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England cut rates this week. However, there is a clear difference in the performance of the respective currencies. Sterling’s move was a text book response, but the Aussie confounded expectations by rising. Naturally, this has traders watching GBP/AUD closely. The RBA cut rates on Tuesday […]

Super Thursday Lives Up To Super Hype

BOE and The Pound  A collective sigh of relief was heard at trading desks overnight, the result of decisive action taken by the Bank of England. Not one to shy away from a challenge, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney spoke frankly about an economic outlook that had “changed markedly”. Moreover, unlike the BoJ, RBA, […]

Top trade idea for August 4th, 2016 – AUDUSD

The ugly chart above is the audusd pair that is looking as bearish as bearish can be despite the heavy buying on each and every dip. Not even the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) rate cut wasn’t able to bring this beast down, despite the fact that only 70% chances were priced in. It doesn’t […]

Topsy -Turvy World of Currency Markets

The forex markets have been in risk-off mode over the past day, as concerns grow about Japan’s woefully limited economic package and as oil prices plunge, stoking fears that global growth is stagnating. Australian Dollar – Bond Flow Appreciation If, a month ago I had suggested that the Australian dollar would rally 100 pips post an […]

Dollar Sucks Wind

Five things the markets are talking about The ‘mighty’ dollar continues to bear the weight of last Friday’s poor preliminary U.S GDP data release and a ‘dovish’ Fed, underperforming against a plethora of G20 currencies. Basically, the market is again re-evaluating its timeline for the next potential Fed hike given a slew of weaker-than-expected U.S […]

BOJ Day –“ Brace Positions Please”

YEN – A Day of Reckoning The much-anticipated BOJ meeting is upon us and, right on cue, another headline has intensified speculation. Overnight, reports from a Reuters source suggested that the “Bank of Japan is considering specific easing steps.” While the comment is vague, it points to either a 20 basis point cut to –0.3%, […]

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