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Top trade idea for July 26th, 2016 – AUD/USD

AUDUSD has turned down from 0.7834 high in May after wave C-circled completed a big corrective wave IV flat pattern. A flat has a 3-3-5 sub-wave structure, so it was a contra-trend movement that should send price back to the lows. So far, market made a very good and strong bearish turn to 0.7130 with […]

Central Bankers Take Center Stage

Both the FOMC and Bank of Japan will share the centre stage this week but let us not forget the Austalia Q2 CPI, which will be vying for some of the spotlights. Federal Reserve -Conundrum  The Federal Reserve Board( Feds) capably stage- managed a masterful decline in real US rates in Q2  propelling risk sentiment skyrocketing […]

Lots of Noise But Lacking in Direction

JPY- Kuroda Corrodes Just when the JPY bears were showing some swagger, Bank ofJapan Kuroda squashed markets hopes for “helicopter money”, well at least he did in mid-June when a BBC 4 interview took place. The USdJPY was sitting comfortable perched above 107 before plummeting to 105.50 on the old comments. While the move may […]

Will the ECB show a different hand?

Five things the markets are talking about Nope, not really and that’s the majorities viewpoint. Businesses as usual as Euro policy makers are waiting for more data. However, many believe Euro officials may signal such a move is on the cards at the bank’s September 8th meeting. Expect Draghi to be questioned about Brexit and […]

USD/CNH Provides Excitement, Stocks Higher Again

A  quiet day in Asia for G10 with only USD/CNH providing some excitement. Stocks continue their march higher ahead of central banks and expected China easing.  Asia G10 FX A generally range bound day for currencies in Asia with AUD, EURO and USDJPY trading around their mid-range points of 0.7500, 1.1000 and 106.00 respectively. NZD […]

The Central Bank Waiting Game

The Central Bank waiting game is taking hold of the G-10 complex as Investors nervously contemplate their pending decisions while mindfully scanning the geopolitical landscape. Australian Dollar-Losing Yield Appeal  Fissures are appearing in the yield carry backstop that supported the Australian Dollar post-Brexit. The Australian Dollar Yield appeal tarnished after the RBA left the door […]

Central Banks to Dominate Proceedings

Tuesday July 19: Five things the markets are talking about Potential monetary policy decisions are currently dictating market moves, whether its bond yields, currency values or equity prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets this Thursday and is expected to leave its policy unchanged. That goes for the Fed too, they meet on July 27. […]

Post-Brexit Highs, Lows, Quandaries and Geopolitics

Post-Brexit Highs and Quandaries A post-Brexit range is coming into a semblance of order .   The market is seeking to determine a new symmetrical level for both the Pound and Japanese Yen. While the next JPY trend is destined to be created on the back Tokyo’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, the pound is still in a […]

Expect the Unexpected

Expect the Unexpected On the tails of the UK referendum vote perhaps it’s best to expect the unexpected from Central Banks. Overnight, the anticipated interest rate cut from the BOE failed to materialize, sending the Pound rocketing higher and making the Capital Market landscape that much more difficult to navigate. While shading the MPC statement […]

Top trade idea for July 14th, 2016 – AUDUSD

Ugly pattern on the AUDUSD pair in the sense that we have a double combination to the downside that retraced between 61.8% and 70% only to be followed by a strong bounce higher. However, a closer look at this bounce is telling us that this is no impulsive wave, even though we kind of need […]

Australian Dollar – China Conundrum

Markets have begun to show signs of stabilising overnight. Asia equity futures traded mixed, and the US Benchmark S&P500 closed unchanged.Crude oil initially declined following the latest inventory survey which pointed to a surprising 2.2 million barrel build. However, prices stabilised quickly and  are marching  higher at this morning NYMEX and ICE Futures openThe Australian […]

Unprecedented Policy Easing

The Spot Forex market volumes flashed back to life over the past 24 hours with the focus on USDJPY. Japan’s stimulus package and a massive wave of positive risk sentiment have spurred Wall Street to record highs. Along with the stimuli, diminishing political uncertainty in UK, Japan and Australia has added supportive foundation to this […]

China Q2 GDP Risk and The Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is trading a tad lower this morning, off yesterday’s election inspired highs as a sense of normality returns to the Markets.  In a delayed response to Friday stellar US NFP, the US 10 year bond yield has moved higher, settling at 1.434 % vs. Friday’s record low of 1.366%.  In tandem, December […]

APAC Currency Corner -Goldilocks and the 3 Central Banks

Non-Farm Payroll- Just What the Doctor Ordered A market-friendly NFP is just what the Dr (Yellen) ordered, and the economy delivered. While the US equity market response is encouraging, it is important not to factor too much into one single monthly report. Certainly, more data is needed to confirm that the dismal May jobs report […]

APAC Currency Corner- NFP Time Again !

Non-Farm Payroll-May Anomaly  While the sharp edge of Non-Farm Payroll Day has been dulled by Brexit-driven volatility, none the less, traders will be watching the data intently. Specifically, they will be looking for a potential rebound from the dismal 38,000 jobs recorded in May, which the market interpreted as transformative for the Federal Reserve monetary […]

APAC Currency Corner – The Pound Pounded

Investor sentiment soured over the July 4 long weekend.” Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water”, the Pound got pounded as speculation around Brexit forms into something more concrete. Aside from the market noise and price swing fluctuations, for the greater part, the market continues to take huge upticks […]

The Pounds Relief Rally is Officially Over

Five things the markets are talking about Post Brexit jitters this morning has returned to hurt the pound, putting an end to last week’s relief rally, and push sterling to a new two-and-a-half year low against the EUR. Today’s instigators are the news of Standard Life Investments suspending trading in a large U.K. commercial real-estate […]

USDCNY FIX -Policy Driven ?

Back to back Economic Data misses have sent the Australian Dollar reeling. Retail sales came in .2% versus .3 % expected  but with the  trade balance coming in a -2.22 billion  versus -1.7 billion expected , we’ve  seen the reduction of  weak long positions that were established this morning in anticipation of a neutral RBA […]

Five things the markets are talking about

Stateside, this is a holiday shortened trading week, one that will be dominated by two fundamental events – Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report for June. With no surprises expected in the minutes, both dealers and investors have very much priced out any possibility of a U.S rate hike occurring within the […]

APAC Currency Corner -Chase for Yield

The post-Brexit rebound in sentiment continued on Friday as the Market prices in aggressive   Central Banks easing   Investors were spurred on by comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney saying “The economic outlook has deteriorated, and some monetary policy easing will likely be needed over the summer”.  With the market now speculating that the easing may […]

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