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APAC Currency Corner – Another financial meltdown on the cards?

Post-Brexit vote, the debate has centred on whether it will be the catalyst for another Lehman Brothers-style meltdown. While there’s a lot of dust still to settle, central bankers are ready and willing to use whatever tools necessary to calm investor’s nerves and avoid a global meltdown. While markets were extremely volatile on Friday, trading was […]

APAC Currency Corner – It’s a crap shoot

The votes are in and the counting is well and truly under way in the UK’s referendum on EU membership. Early results are reflecting blue-collar (leave) sentiment while white collar voters are due later. Markets are like a coiled spring waiting eagerly for the first sniff of an outcome. The market’s overall lean continues to price […]

APAC Currency Corner – The clock is ticking

We are less than 48 hours away from Judgement Day, and the forex markets are gravitating to some semblance of risk event midpoint. Other than kicking the can from poll to poll, there is little on offer for traders to sink their teeth into. Even Fed chairman Janet Yellen’s first day of the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins […]

APAC Currency Corner – A week of reckoning

The June 23rd UK referendum on EU membership is expected to dominate the headlines this week as markets and trading desks prepare for the day of reckoning. Expect polls to continue driving markets as volatility increases ahead of the judgement day. Volatility may remain, but the more likely scenario is that traders will start to […]

Top trade idea for June 17th, 2016 – AUD/CAD

If the Brexit referendum and the chance of extreme volatility it entails is beyond your risk tolerance, here’s a chart that may be of interest. The relationship between the Aussie and Canadian Dollars should be fairly neutral to Brexit. Both are seen as “commodity” currencies. Oil is Canada’s main export while iron ore is Australia’s. […]

APAC CURRENCY CORNER – Brexit “The Game of Craps”

With Brexit fears driving global market uncertainty, risk sentiment continues to sour. This has resulted in weaker asset markets with the G10 reacting as expected.  There’s certainly no dearth of opinion polls showing a lean towards a Brexit, and the outcome is on a razor’s edge. Overnight, European equity markets moved significantly lower with the FTSE100 […]

APAC Currency Corner – Storm clouds on the horizon

The US Dollar bounced back convincingly after being on the ropes last week, as Federal officials continued to lend support to the Greenback. US employment markets don’t look too bad after the JOLTS report came in higher than expected and the initial jobless claims surprised. Also, the USD was also boosted by safe-haven demand as […]

AUD/USD – Aussie Unchanged, US Consumer Confidence Within Expectations

The Australian dollar is almost unchanged on Friday, following considerable losses in the Thursday session. The pair is trading at the 0.74 line in the North American session. On the release front, there are no Australian events on the schedule. In the US, UoM Consumer Sentiment came in at 94.3 points, just above the estimate. […]

Top trade idea for June 10th, 2016 – AUD/USD

Commodity currencies usually fall when metal and energy prices drop – it’s on the lable.  A strengthening USD should push commodity prices lower. Therefore, if USD strength is returning, any commodity currency priced against the USD could suffer a double whammy selling effect. Come in AUD/USD. In volatile trading AUD/USD hit  a high above 0.7830 […]

APAC Currency Corner – Caution is the name of the game

The US dollar posted modest upticks against the G10 currencies in the New York session. USD bulls found solace in yesterday’s US initial jobless claims, which fell to a lower-than-expected 264k last week, lowering the four-week average by 7k to 270k. The weekly employment barometer certainly paints a more robust picture of the US labour […]

APAC Currency Corner – Fed rates lower for longer?

Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen struck all the right chords as the U.S central bank used another Get Out of Jail Free card, which followed the dismal NFP. This data gave an opportunity for an other rate hike delay while sounding upbeat about the US economy. Whether by intention or not, her comments fuelled speculation […]

Brexit Polls Give It All Back To Pound

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday, traders were fully focused on what Yellen would say in Philadelphia. Was capital markets going to get the inside track on the timing of future rate hikes by the Fed? Would there be any hints that last Friday’s horrid non-farm payroll (NFP) report was all, but an […]

APAC Currency Corner – NFP fallout gets ugly

The much weaker-than-expected US payrolls print for May left markets reeling. US equities slipped while the USD fell sharply. But the most significant adjustments were the shifts in near term pricing for the Fed. The probability of a June rate hike implied by Fed fund futures fell to 4% from a high of 34% last […]

APAC Currency Corner – Will NFP provide the magic bullet for the US dollar?

Aussie – trading heavy Following up on  Wednesday’s unexpectedly strong Q1 GDP report, Australia printed a much narrower-than-expected trade deficit of AUD1.6bn in April – the smallest in 14 months. But surprisingly the data failed to inspire. The Aussie dollar has had a difficult time this week capitalising on strong domestic data. Instead, traders continued to fade positive […]

APAC Currency Corner – Brexit fallout

During the past twelve months, investors have built a towering wall of worry around themselves as they brood about everything from a global economic slowdown to collapsing oil prices. Now we have a possible Brexit on the horizon. Yesterday’s latest online ICM Brexit poll (47% Leave vs. 44% Remain) reignited concerns over a potential UK […]

APAC Currency Corner – It’s US employment data week!

USDJPY – Yen hits the gas Fed chairperson Janet Yellen’s Harvard speech on Friday yielded a significant response from USDJPY traders. The pair moved to the 110.50 near-term resistance level after being mired in very tight ranges most of Friday’s session. On the back of improving risk sentiment, increasing bets on a Fed rate rise after the Yellen-inspired speech on […]

APAC Currency Corner – Traders are warming to Fed summer rate hike?

The Greenback continued moving higher on Tuesday on the back of supportive US home sales data, which came in 619k versus just 523k expected, one of the best level seen since 2008. The Aussie – topsy-turvy times There was a moderate nosedive in the Aussie overnight on the back of the RBA’s Glen Stevens, who was making […]

APAC Currency Corner – June rate hike countdown

The Aussie With little in the way of fundamental drivers this week, the Aussie should be at the mercy of USD border moves and investor risk sentiment as the markets continue to churn on the heightened prospect of a US interest rate hike. Equity markets ended last week on a firmer note. The S&P500 rose […]

Top trade idea for May 20th, 2016 – AUD/JPY

On Alert in AUD/JPY Writers are often advised to read widely. The idea is that the greater the input, and the range of the input, the better the output. The same is true for traders. The more and varied sources of market information, the more potential trades. The challenge is that there are so many […]

Fed In “If” Mode

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday’s FOMC minutes indicate that the bank was in “if” mode, as in, if data supports a rate hike, U.S policy makers ‘could’ increase rates at the next meeting on June 14-15. Accompanying the “if” message were the usual disclaimers – the bank is of course concerned about […]

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