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It’s Oil That’s Driving This Loonie Rally

It’s giddy times in Canada, with newly installed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau winning rave reviews at home and abroad, the nation’s economy generating some of the best positive surprises in the world and the domestic stock market soaring again. And yet all foreign-exchange traders seem to want to know is what’s the latest price for […]

Pound Squeeze Continues

Five things the markets are talking about. It tough to get excited about these markets ahead of the FOMC (Wednesday) and BoJ rate (Thursday) announcements this week. Investors prefer to remain non-committed ahead of the meetings, choosing instead to wade to the sidelines and wait for a stronger market signal. The Federal Open Market Committee […]

USD/CAD Loonie Lower Awaiting FOMC and Canadian GDP

The Canadian dollar retreated at the start of the week as it gave up the gains from Friday’s strong inflation and retail sales data. The loonie had a horrible start to 2016 after the price of oil tumbled taking along the currency. The actions from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members and Russia […]

Top trade idea for April 21st, 2016 – GBPCAD

The GBPCAD chart above is actually coming from the weekly time frame but I zoomed out on the daily to see the details much better. We have an impulsive move to the upside, or a five wave structure that seems to be ended with a failure. In reality, it is not possible to be a […]

BoC Poloz: Opening Remarks To House of Commons

Good morning, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are happy to be back to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. I extend particular greetings to the new members of this committee, and look forward to being with you twice a year to talk about […]

Top trade idea for April 18th, 2016 – NZD/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: negotiations in Doha have collapsed. From trade opening on Monday, oil has fallen to $41 per barrel, the NZD is up to 0.8945 against its Canadian counterpart. A double bottom and bull divergence has formed on the daily graph, as has happened on 23rd March earlier this year. Based on […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Lower on Oil Uncertainty

The Canadian dollar retraced on Thursday as energy prices traded lower ahead of the Doha oil output freeze summit over the weekend. Yesterday the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates unchanged at 0.50 percent and issued words of caution. The BoC did not make any dovish comments, and in general outlined the risk factors facing […]

Top trade idea for April 13th, 2016 – USD/CAD

The USD/CAD is in focus today and will remain so for a good few days ahead of Bank of Canada policy decision, US and oil stockpiles data all on Wednesday, and Russia-OPEC meeting at the weekend. The general feeling is that an agreement between Russia and large OPEC members will be reached in Doha on […]

USD/CAD – Loonie in Tight Range Despite Oil Price Tumble

The Canadian dollar traded in a tight range versus the USD as the weak fundamentals in the U.S. cancelled out the drop in oil prices after doubts rose about the Doha crude price freeze. The USD did not get support from data releases after the U.S. Factory goods orders posted a loss of 1.7 percent. […]

Canada: GDP By Industry January 2016

Real gross domestic product rose 0.6% in January, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing, retail trade, and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction were major contributors to growth in January. The output of goods-producing industries grew 1.2% in January, mainly as a result of increases in manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Soars After Yellen Dovish Remarks

The USD tumbled against the CAD after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the Economic Club of New York. The USD had been weaker after the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had downgraded economic projections and emphasized the “gradual” nature of future rate hikes. Last week hawkish Fed members tried […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Higher After Oil Recovers

The Canadian dollar had a positive start of the trading week as U.S. data was softer and the price of energy recovered during the North American trading session. The loonie has been on the back foot due to a strong Fed rhetoric from policy members that has boosted the USD, the volatile nature of the […]

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Flat in Thin Holiday Trade

USD/CAD is showing little movement on Friday, as the pair trades at 1.3230 in the European session. Canadian markets are closed for Good Friday, so there are no Canadian releases on the calendar. The US will release Final GDP for the fourth quarter, with the markets forecasting a gain of 1.0%. Canada is a major […]

Canada: Retail Sales January 2016

Retail sales rose 2.1% to $44.2 billion in January, led by five subsectors that rebounded from lower sales in December. Gains were reported in 7 of 11 subsectors, representing 82% of total retail sales. The increase in January was indicative of higher volumes sold, as constant dollar sales rose 2.1%. Most subsectors post higher sales […]

Canada: CPI February 2016

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.4% in the 12 months to February, after increasing 2.0% in January. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 1.9% year over year in February, following a 2.0% increase the previous month. Gasoline prices were down 13.1% year over year in February, contributing the most to the overall deceleration in consumer […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Flying After Dovish FOMC and Oil Output Date Announced

The Canadian dollar got a double boost from market events on Wednesday. The price of oil surged after lower U.S. crude inventories were announced and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced alongside Russia the date for their oil output freeze in April. The USD got no support from the U.S. Federal Reserve […]

USD/CAD Loonie Weaker Ahead of FOMC After Oil Tumble

Loonie’s high correlation to Oil price drags currency lower The USD has advanced 0.60 percent versus the CAD in the last 24 hours. The currency pair is trading at 1.3359. The drop in oil prices has driven the USD/CAD above the 1.33 price level and briefly traded at 1.34. CAD traders will be looking for […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Lower as Oil Drops on Iran Comments

The Canadian dollar was dragged lower as volatility in the energy markets continues. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) member Iran is willing to freeze production output of crude, but not at January levels as Saudi Arabia and Russia have been discussing. Iranian production was halved as the international sanctions that were lifted this […]

FX5: ECB December Deja Vu, Not Even Close

Five-things the markets are talking about ECB’s Draghi did not disappoint yesterday, he delivered a full slate of monetary policy easing in his continuing quest to spark inflation in the eurozone. The decision drove heightened volatility across all asset classes. The initial reaction saw equities surge and the 19-member ‘single’ currency plunge to a new […]

USD/CAD Loonie Falls After ECB Bazooka and Oil Freeze Meeting Doubts

The Canadian dollar was caught in the middle of a huge market shift this morning. The European Central Bank (ECB) learnt a lesson from the December meeting communication failure and over delivered on market expectations. The central bank cut several rates with the deposit rate now at –0.4 percent, a 20 billion euros expansion to […]

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