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Contagion Contained as Euro Rebounds Post-Greek Elections

Talking Points: EURUSD hits fresh 11-year low below $1.1100 before rebounding. Non-EUR: NZDUSD looks vulnerable w/ FOMC, RBNZ on Weds. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Monday, January 26, 2015. One can’t help but think that part of the ECB’s motivation to get its QE program off the ground last week was to buffer financial […]

T-Minus 0: Trade Setups in EUR as ECB Prepares for QE Liftoff

Talking Points: H4 close above 1.1640 could see big short covering in EURUSD. EURGBP breakdown remains valid below 0.7750. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Thursday, January 22, 2015. The moment we’ve all been waiting for since early-December has finally arrived. Will speculation around the ECB live up to the hype? The Hype The European […]

T-Minus 1: Setting EUR Expectations for Tomorrow’s ECB Meeting

Talking Points: EURUSD maintains trend structure from December 17. EURGBP triangle remains valid below 0.7750. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Wednesday, January 21, 2015. The hurdles for tomorrow’s ECB meeting are rather high. Evidence of incoming action has undoubtedly cropped up, with reasons for a massive stimulus program coming from all angles: The European […]

EUR Bucks Rate Message, Waits for ECJ

Loonie plagued by plummeting crude EUR bucks spread market message European Court of Justice takes center court A tale of opposing CPI’s Currently, there are many moving parts in capital markets that have investors bracing themselves for an extended clear out at a moment’s notice. The knock-on effect throughout the various asset classes from plummeting […]

Moves in EUR/GBP, EUR/USD Coming; GBP/CAD, NZD/USD Next

Talking Points: EURUSD sees alignment in MACD, Stochastics on H4, daily. EURGBP triangle floor proves strong as resistance. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Tuesday, January 13, 2015. News flow is heating up right now but a lot of it is worth ignoring – at least, that’s what the market is telling us. UK inflation […]

Top Trade Idea For January 9th ,2015 – NZD/CAD

Sometimes a technical set up comes along that ticks all the boxes. Bollinger Bands are among the most misused technical indicators. Traders consistently talk about uses of BBs that are so far removed from the mathematics underpinning BB theory that it’s frightening. The New Zealand / Canadian dollar cross is currently offering a lesson in […]

Top Trade Idea For December 31st, 2014 – USD/CAD

Last week, we highlighted the tight consolidation on USDCAD, discussing the potential for a bullish breakout above key resistance at 1.1670 in depth (see “USDCAD Bull Flagging Below 1.1670 – Big Breakout Still Possible This Year” for more). As it turns out, the pair just couldn’t muster enough strength to break above the critical barrier, […]

Pound May Weaken on UK CPI, Euro to Look Past PMI Data

Talking Points: US Dollar Corrected Lower in Overnight Trade, Loonie in the Lead Ruble Bounce on Surprise Russia Interest Rate Hike Unlikely to Last UK CPI May Weigh on British Pound, Euro to Look Past PMI Data The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having edged higher in the preceding 24 hours. The Canadian […]

USDCAD upside means resistance could be tested again

The USDCAD pair seems to have found support upon a near term fibonacci retracement, leading to some buying coming into the market today. However, with a major resistance trendline within reach, it means we could either see another bout of selling soon or else a highly notable upside breakout. On the weekly timeframe, there is […]

Week in FX Americas – BoC’s Poloz to Stay the Course

Central banks remain “front and centre” Loonie penalized by crude prices 25% fall in oil prices adds +0.3% to U.S GDP Demons of deflation persist Friday’s surprising +2.8% annualized Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) gain in the third quarter is unlikely to persuade Governor Stephen Poloz at the Bank of Canada (BoC) to change course […]

A Snapshot of Central Bank Thinking

Rate divergence to continue European Central Bank Credibility on the Line Inflation Stymies the Bank of Russia The Fed’s Game of Show and Tell Some of the main central banks continue to eye handcuffing investors to a low rate environment throughout the first half of 2015. The current exception to the loose monetary policy regime […]

USDCAD finds moving average support

The USDCAD pair finally broke below a major support level on Friday, yet with a major moving average now limiting further downside, it will be interesting to see how the pair reacts between these two key levels as a means to gauge the direction in coming weeks. The weekly chart below shows that the pair […]

USDCAD tests support level amid uptrend

The USDCAD pair has returned to a major support level, following the engagement of a resistance level two weeks ago. Following this, it will be key to see how the pair resolves the current region of uncertainty to then gauge the direction for the coming weeks. The weekly chart below shows the pair has found […]

Week in FX Americas – Bullard and G20 Beat Down Dollar

U.S Retail Sales provided a brief dollar “bid” Bullard and G20 makes investors nervous Modest market participation provides choppy FX session The near global equity meltdown last month (later reversed) was not able to seriously damage Friday’s U.S. retail sales report for October. Overall, retail sales rose +0.3% on the month and managed to just […]

USDCAD in triangle to determine medium term direction

The USDCAD pair has pulled back somewhat over the past week or so, following resistance found upon both a fibonacci expansion and long term ascending trend-line. However, with a major level of support holding price up, the resolution of this current range is going to provide me with a better idea of the medium term […]

Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach

Talking Points: Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach Euro Drops after Draghi Reiterates Stimulus Commitment British Pound Most Fundamentally At-Risk Currency Next Week Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach While many of the top financial headlines are cheering the fresh record highs for US equities, […]

Falling Oil Prices to Punish the Loonie

Forex traders live for volatility. Significant asset price moves provide for more market opportunities. Currency traders do not care what direction prices move, so long as they move. This is a significant week when it comes to scheduled economic events with three major central banks making statements and the release of monthly U.S. jobs data. […]

Top Trade Idea For October 29th, 2014 – AUD/CAD

With the markets fully focused on the outcome of the FOMC tonight, it may be best to avoid looking at assets which will be directly impacted by the Fed’s decision. In this regard, one currency pair that has caught my eye is the AUD/CAD, which could be on the verge of resuming its downward trend. […]

Major Event Risk Ahead for US Dollar – Levels to Watch

Talking Points: Major event risk ahead for US Dollar – two high risk events today. USDCAD susceptible, AUDUSD requires patience. October Forex Seasonality Foretells End of Seasonal USD Weakness The US Dollar has been able to retrace about half of its losses from its October highs, but it’s not out of the woods just yet. […]

Bullish USDCAD breaks above major resistance level

The USDCAD pair has broken above a major resistance level of 1.13, following the continuation of the uptrend that has been in place since 2011. This follows continued downside in the price of oil, as the Canadian dollar suffers and with today’s break and the likeliness of further losses in oil along with today’s break […]

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