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NZ Dollar Gains as Dairy Price Jump Cools RBNZ Rate Cut Bets

Talking Points: NZ Dollar Gains as Dairy Price Jump Weighs Against RBNZ Rate Cut Bets Yen, Euro May Weaken as Commodity Dollars Firm on Swelling Risk Appetite See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much 0.8 percent on average against […]

Central Banks “Pretend and Extend” Intact

October continues its positive trend: Friday’s disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) report has the market repricing the Fed’s first-rate liftoff in a decade (October +5%, December +28% and dropping fast, March 2016 +50%). Yesterday’s disappointing weakness in the U.S services ISM continues to translate into risk-on flows into the U.S. as “lower for longer” rate policies […]

Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Interest Rate Hike Bets Aussie Dollar Gains as RBA Keeps Cash Rate at 2%, Maintains Neutral Bias See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking […]

Pound May Extend Drop as Soft PMI Data Trims BOE Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound May Extend Drop as Soft PMI Data Trims BOE Rate Hike Bets US ISM May Set Precedent for Risk Trends’ Response to Shifting Fed Outlook See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the calendar in European trading hours. The gauge is […]

USD in Yellen’s Good Graces – Rate Hike in 2015 Still Eyed

Talking Points: Fed Chair Yellen outlines plan to raise rates in 2015. US Dollar broadly supported, including USDJPY. See the September forex seasonality report. A quiet end to a quiet week on the economic calendar has left markets sensitive to commentary from central bank officials, and price action overnight didn’t disappoint in that regard. With […]

A Good Omen for the Greenback: USD/CAD Breaking Out Higher

Talking Points: USDCAD breaks August 31 H4 key reversal bar through C$1.3326. AUDUSD, NZDUSD have yearly lows in focus. See the September forex seasonality report. For much of 2015, USDCAD has been the bellwether for all things USD. With the US economy improving and the Fed looking to raise rates while the Canadian economy shrank […]

USD/CAD Oil Support Does Not Offset a Strong USD

The USD/CAD has gained 1.49 percent in September, even as the USD had to recover from the Fed’s decision to hold rates. The CAD has been influenced by the continuing oil rout. The price of crude continues to be close to a 7 year low as OPEC production levels are at record high and Iran […]

Euro, Yen Eye Risk Trends as Pound Looks to BOE Comments for Direction

Talking Points: Euro, Japanese Yen Look to Risk Sentiment Trends for New Direction Cues British Pound at Risk if Comments from BOE’s Shafik Trim Rate Hike Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Financial markets settled into digestion mode overnight as a quiet economic data docket left traders without […]

Top trade idea for September 18th, 2015 – USD/CAD

The decision to keep US rates on hold and the accompanying statement from the US Fed saw a quick USD sell off, then a sharp reversal. Given the 25% gain the USD made on a trade weighted basis since mid-2014, there is an argument waiting in the wings that a deferred interest rate hiking timetable […]

US Dollar Outlook Favors Gains on Fed Rate Decision Outcome

Talking Points: US Dollar to Rise on Hawkish Rhetoric Even if FOMC Forgoes a Rate Hike Outright Tightening to Weigh on “Commodity Dollars”, Boost Japanese Yen See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The markets are firmly focused on the outcome of the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting in the […]

USD Turns to First of Two Major Pre-FOMC Data Prints Today

Talking Points: EURUSD holding near $1.1300 after mixed data from the Euro-Zone. The AUDNZD and EURGBP flags/pennants have yet to breakout. See the September forex seasonality report. As one of two “high” rated events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar before Thursday’s FOMC meeting, the August US Advance Retail Sales report should prove to be market […]

Pound May Fall if Hawkish Bank of England Minority Does Not Grow

Talking Points: British Pound May Decline if Hawkish BOE MPC Minority Does Not Expand Aussie Dollar Erases Intraday Losses as Jobs Data Trims RBA Rate Cut Bets NZ Dollar Slumps on Dovish RBNZ Rhetoric, Yen Drops After 5yr Bond Sale A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European […]

Top trade idea for September 10th, 2015 – USDCAD

Usdcad pair looks bearish to me at current levels so I am favoring the downside here as the pattern that was forming to the upside is not an impulsive move, but merely a double flat pattern. That being the case, the idea is to stay short for the first target, the 1.2860 area with a […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Flight Stalls After BoC Rate Announcement

BoC holds steady as exports offer hope CAD rally falls flat as crude comes under pressure A weaker currency aiding non energy exports China raises questions for global growth “Buy the rumor and sell the fact” played out rather well after the Bank of Canada (BoC) held rates steady as expected on Wednesday morning. Governor […]

Commodity Dollars Rise, Yen Falls as Risk Appetite Firms Overnight

Talking Points: Commodity Dollars Gains, Japanese Yen Declines as Risk Appetite Firms S&P 500 Index Futures Hint Risk-On Sentiment Likely to Carry Forward See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars rallied as risk appetite firmed in overnight trade. The Japanese Yen weakened as […]

Top trade idea for September 9th, 2015 – GBP/CAD

Kicking off the upcoming onslaught of central bank meetings, the Bank of Canada opted to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50% today, as widely expected. Some economists and traders were speculating that the central bank would surprise traders with another unanticipated cut, but the recent recovery in oil prices and solid economic data from the […]

EUR, JPY Dip as Rebound in Risk Sentiment Lifts AUD, CAD

Talking Points: EURUSD slides back towards $1.1150. AUDUSD covering rally takes it back to its daily 5-EMA. See the September forex seasonality report. The key reversal that appeared on the USDOLLAR’s H4 chart yesterday has proved to be the marking of a short-term top, with the broader gauge of greenback strength slipping back to its […]

Preview for August US NFPs and Trade Setups in USD-pairs

Talking Points: EURUSD holds below trendline from August lows after ECB. USDJPY likely to see choppy trading conditions either way. See the September forex seasonality report. The USDOLLAR Index is testing its highest levels since early-August, and with the blessing of a strong August US labor market report it could be well on its way […]

Top trade idea for September 4th, 2015 – AUD/NZD

Commodity prices are weighing on currencies of significant producers, such as CAD, NOK, NZD and AUD. However, not all commodities are the same, and more subtle FX traders may look for exposure to particular commodity groups via the relevant currency pairs. Those expecting agricultural commodities to outperform metals and energy could have AUD/NZD on their […]

FX Snapshot: VIX Rises as Asian Market Rout continues

View from the FX Dean: Tuesday September 2 Asia and Euro equities, along with U.S futures remain under pressure, but have reversed some of their initial deeper declines. No significant fundamental catalysts are being attributed to the bounce, although more stimulus measures out of China are helping sentiment. Volatility index up +10.5% Wednesday to 31.40 […]

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