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EUR Strangled by Option Interest

Since the Scottish sovereignty referendum, it has been difficult to get overly excited about forex, especially with the EUR’s price action confined to a relatively tight trading range. The single unit’s recent moves have been telegraphed, influenced mostly by option-related deals and a few uninspiring purchasing managers’ indexes. European bourses seem to be taking a […]

Silver Breakdown Hints at USD Turning Point; EUR/USD, USD/CAD Not Done

Talking Points: Silver/XAGUSD fall through support signals turning point. EURUSD may push lower again; USDCAD eyes inv H&S. Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the US Dollar, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a USD currency basket. During August and early-September, the rise of US Treasury yields neatly coincided with an already-bullish […]

Commodity Dollars Broadly Decline as Risk Appetite Comes Undone

Talking Points: Commodity Dollars Face Heavy Selling Pressure as Risk Appetite Unravels S&P 500 Futures Point Toward Continued Risk Aversion in the Cards Ahead See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in Asian trade following the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. While Governor Graeme Wheeler said […]

USDCAD at major resistance level

The USDCAD pair has been trading within a broadening formation over the past month or so following a strong start to Q3. Given this trend, the pair has come back into focus given that a major resistance level is currently being challenged. Thus we should see the pair either finally break out of this formation […]

USD/JPY May See 110.00, USD/CAD 1.1200 Over Coming Weeks

Talking Points: USDJPY breakout valid above NFP swing low of 104.65/70. USDCAD breakout, inv H&S begins above 1.1100. Euro Punished by ECB’s New Measures as QE Remains on Hold The US Dollar has mainly benefited against the European currencies the past several weeks – it may be time for gains to develop elsewhere. The most […]

Top Trade Idea For September 5th, 2014 – AUD/CAD

Aussie CAD has formed into a neat rectangle formation having now completed 2 rejections of both the support and resistance. I’ve shown the daily chart here to highlight the rectangle formation. But if you look at the longer term weekly, you’ll see that momentum oscillators like the slow stochastic are still trending up. This leads […]

Week in FX Americas – BoC To Remain With Neutral Stance

Canadian growth quickens BoC to be pleased, but not impressed Poloz to remain with neutral stance next week Friday’s data revealed that the Canadian economy accelerated at the fastest pace in nearly three-years in Q2. The usual culprits supported the annualized +3.1% gain between April and June: exports, consumer spending and business investments (an area […]

Dollar Hits 12-Month High Versus Euro, S&P 500 Crosses 2000

Talking Points: Dollar Hits 12-Month High Versus Euro, S&P 500 Crosses 2000 Euro Sinks as Market Rate Slides to Record Low USDJPY Climbs for a Seventh Straight Day Dollar Hits 12-Month High Versus Euro, S&P 500 Crosses 2000 Where were the balloons? The S&P 500 marked yet another milestone in its line of records by […]

Trade Idea For August 22nd ,2014 -GBP/CAD

After several months of sideways drift, the pound now has the potential to break down against the Canadian Dollar. Comments by Mr. Carney and well behaved UK inflation have recently exerted downward pressure. My trade idea is to sell on a clear break below the 200 day moving average looking for a deeper correction of […]

Trade Idea For August 18th,2014 – EUR/CAD

Predicting reversals can be risky. Last week, we expected a EUR/CAD reversal near 1.4550. On Friday, EUR/CAD reversed at 1.4546 and is currently heading higher. We expect that move higher to end soon and will discuss a EUR/CAD short trade based on the same approach for predicting the reversal at 1.4546. This half-hourly chart shows […]

USDOLLAR Clears Resistance but for How Long?

Talking Points: EURUSD back-to-back inverted hammers, inside days = coiling. USDCAD could fall to 1.0815 support again. August is a seasonally favorable month for the US Dollar in the QE era. The US Dollar has had a strong run over the past few weeks, with the bull flag originating on July 31 producing new highs […]

Top Trade Idea For August 12th, 2014 –USD/CAD

Hello everyone! In today’s article we will take a look at USDCAD which has been in a significant recovery for the past five weeks away from 1.0600 area. Market recovered in very sharp manner, referred as an impulse in Elliott Wave terminology.  You will notice that pair also took out an important downward channel a […]

Week in FX Americas – Does Friday’s NFP Change the Landscape?

Modest miss in US jobs Stronger U.S. economic momentum remains on track Jobs report is neither strong nor weak enough to shift expectations It looks like it, it feels like it, and for the sake of forex investors everywhere, it seems the market is finally trying to price in the long-awaited USD rally. Currency and […]

USD/JPY Fueling Broader USD Breakout; EUR/USD Weak Under 1.3400

Talking Points: EURUSD denied at 1.3400 after Euro-Zone CPI. USDCAD looks for 1.0954 before pullback. July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however. US Treasury yields have turned higher, and the relationship between weaker bond prices and a stronger US Dollar is starting to emerge. Whereas the 20-day correlation between the DXY […]

This Week: Suit Up, Strap In, And Be Dollar Ready

Last week saw global markets fluctuate between corporate earnings and geopolitical conflicts. There was an excess of negative news out of Israel and eastern Ukraine, with each region’s headlines countering much of the decent U.S. and European quarterly earnings reports. On the whole, the reports were relatively good, despite a couple of curve balls thrown […]

Fed, NFPs Line Up this Week with USD Technical Breakouts

Talking Points: EURUSD aims below 1.3400, USDCHF above 0.9150. GBPUSD critical support comes in at 1.6920. July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however. A culmination of factors may be aligning for further US Dollar strength over the coming days, even as the economic calendar comes in rather light until Wednesday. However, […]

Top Trade Idea For July 25th, 2014 – AUD/CAD

Aussie/CAD is testing trend line resistance with momentumoscillators like the slow stochastic in the overbought zone. The high of today’s candle is so far well below yesterday’s high. If we also move below yesterday’s low the chances are we will finish the day with both a lower high and a lower low. Assuming this is […]

EUR/USD Breakdown, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD Breakouts Eyed this Week

Talking Points: EURUSD below July 2012-July 2013 TL, needs below 1.3475. GBPCAD and USDCAD still both point to breakouts higher. Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD. It’s admittedly another quiet start to the trading week, with fewer than ten economic data releases (including central banker speeches) on the calendar for […]

Top Trade Idea For July 21st, 2014 – EUR/CAD

Since mid-March, the euro has lost about 7% of its value against the Canadian dollar. This trend seems likely to continue but has paused around the 1.4441 level. While it seems poised to move higher in a countertrend move possibly towards the 1.50 level, we recognize the price action of the countertrend and see a […]

Week in FX Americas – Inflation Concerns Come to the Fore

US consumer sentiment declines Consumer has a balanced view on inflation Canucks take price rise on stride Despite the geopolitical event risk in play, a couple of North American economic releases on Friday gauged consumer sentiment and inflation concerns. In the U.S, the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July declined to 81.3 […]

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