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EUR/USD Breakdown, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD Breakouts Eyed this Week

Talking Points: EURUSD below July 2012-July 2013 TL, needs below 1.3475. GBPCAD and USDCAD still both point to breakouts higher. Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD. It’s admittedly another quiet start to the trading week, with fewer than ten economic data releases (including central banker speeches) on the calendar for […]

Week in FX Europe: EUR Limps into next Week

EUR’s stability well contained Investors have confidence in the ECB Fed to maintain dovish strategy Restricted to a tight trading range against the U.S. dollar, the euro is holding steady against the greenback to end the week despite Thursday’s mini-capital markets meltdown thanks to Portugal’s highly publicized banking problems. The EUR’s stability suggests investors believe […]

GBPCHF finds yet another fib support in bullish move

The GBPCHF pair has been trading in a clear ascending channel since March with fibonacci retracement playing a major part in each step. With the price having just pulled back yet again, signs point towards a next leg higher in the coming days. The daily chart below shows that the pair has been respecting the […]

Top Trade Idea For June 18th, 2014 – USD/CHF

There is some key event risk for this pair over the next 24 hours. First up you have the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday.There is some speculation that the Fed Governor could follow the path of the Bank of England and suggest that rate increases could happen sooner than the market currently expects for the […]

USDCHF finds support as we await a breakout

The USDCHF pair continues to respect the 200 day moving average as support while price action forms a flag formation following a move higher over the past month. It is worth waiting for the breakout of this current consolidation to bring about another significant move. The daily chart shows a significant degree of support provided […]

Top Trade Idea For June 16th, 2014– GBP/CHF

The week right after June’s NFP was rather quiet but volatility may have begun to brew as of market’s close last week since traders could be expecting market sentiments to impact the before-and-after of this week’s economic events.  What should we as traders be aware of in the upcoming days and weeks in order to […]

Dont’ Let Cable Mislead: Pound Ready for Breakout via GBP/CHF, EUR/GBP

Talking Points: GBP, unlike EUR, enduring recent swell in shifting FX demands. GBPCHF much better opportunity than GBPUSD, GBPJPY. Forex economic calendar quiet until RBNZ Rate Decision on Wednesday. The British economy is the strongest in the developed world in 2014, and today’s release of various April and May labor data suggest momentum should continue […]

USDCHF returns to resistance following sell-off

The USDCHF pair has been attempting to break and close above the 200 day SMA for around 40 weeks. However, with last week’s sell-off driven by the ECB announcement on Thursday some could be forgiven in thinking that a break higher was off the cards. However, with a return to the same level today, it […]

Dollar Strengthens Against Euro As Eurobond Yields Drop and Other Top Forex News.

The dollar started the week in bullish mood, strengthening against the euro and holding steady against the yen, as Friday’s upbeat U.S. jobs report continues to add weight to the greenback. While the euro traded at session lows against the dollar after yield differentials between U.S. and European debt widened due to the European Central […]

Will The ECB Be Bold Enough Not To Disappoint?

It’s no surprise to see tight trading in capital markets ahead of this week’s main events – the European Central Bank’s (ECB) supposedly telegraphed solution to the eurozone’s low inflation problem, and the U.S.’s most influential economic release, the monthly nonfarm payroll (NFP) report. A move is expected by the ECB tomorrow at its scheduled […]

EUR/USD Wedge Lingers Pre-ECB, USD/CHF Flirts with Double Bottom

Talking Points: EURUSD still has potential for ST turnaround pre-ECB. USDCHF double bottom would target 0.9160. Forex economic calendar significant in Europe, light in N.A. on Tuesday. If we could pinpoint a reason why volatility has been so low, we would turn to the bevy of event risk in the first week of June as […]

Forex: Euro at Risk as Dovish Commentary Stokes Easing Speculation

Talking Points: Franc Likely to Look Past Trade Figures, Euro at Risk on Dovish Commentary US Dollar Looking to Consumer Confidence, Durables Data to Drive Recovery Aussie and NZ Dollars Advanced on Firming Risk Appetite in Overnight Trade The economic calendar remains quiet in European hours, with Swiss Trade Balance figures amounting to the only […]

Dollar: Will Traders Translate Heavy Data into Volatility?

Talking Points: Dollar: Will Traders Translate Heavy Data into Volatility? Euro Jumps to Start the Week After EU Vote Yen Crosses Trailing Equities In Uneven Risk Bid Dollar: Will Traders Translate Heavy Data into Volatility? A curb on liquidity has hurt the greenback as the market has taken the opportunity of holiday trading conditions to […]

Top Trade Idea For May 21st, 2014 – EUR/CHF

While most trade ideas tend to be technical in nature on this site, I thought it was about time to have one that is unashamedly fundamental.  EURCHF is one of the least volatile crosses in the G10 FX world because of the SNB’s 1.20 peg that has been in place since August 2011. Basically, this […]

Dollar: Will Market Shift Towards Fed Bullard’s View?

Talking Points: Dollar: Will Market Shift Towards Fed Bullard’s View? British Pound On Volatility Watch Again with CPI Euro Already Adjusted for ECB Stimulus? Dollar: Will Market Shift Towards Fed Bullard’s View? The market was leaning heavily on the bearish rudder for the US Dollar to start the new trading week, but a bounce in […]

USDCHF manages to close above resistance, yet faces next test

The US dollar has been strengthening against the Swissy, which is generally seen to be closely correlated with the euro. This is not surprising given the ongoing dovish outlook for the region, with Draghi indicating that we could see monetary loosening in June. This has brought about a sharp appreciation in the USDCHF pair over […]

Dollar Runs into Resistance that Requires a Fundamental Break

Talking Points: Dollar Runs into Resistance that Requires a Fundamental Break Euro Slowly Slipping as Stimulus Threat Sinks into Market, Pricing British Pound Outstrips Its Counterparts as Rate Hopes Hit New Highs Dollar Runs into Resistance that Requires a Fundamental Break Monday’s trading session was framed by a high profile breakout in risk trends – […]

Euro Breakouts Hard to Avoid with Upcoming ECB Rate Decision

Talking Points: Dollar Stabilizes but Not Because of Yellen or Risk Trends Euro Breakouts Hard to Avoid with Upcoming ECB Rate Decision Yen Crosses Capable of Starting the Risk Run? Dollar Stabilizes but Not Because of Yellen or Risk Trends Though the recovery effort wasn’t as substantial as the tumble that preceded it, the US […]

Week In FX Europe – After NFP, ECB, Russia and the Dollar In Focus

Friday’s NFP surprise (+288k and +6.3% UE) has managed to temporarily nick the EUR bull, but not enough to break the pair from the broad range (€1.3775-1.3880). Geopolitical concerns aside, next week’s rate decision at the ECB (May 8th) are now in focus. Market consensus expects Euro monetary policy to remain steady as recovery unfolds. […]

Fundamentals: Dollar Ends Day Lower but FOMC Holds Back the Bears

Talking Points: Dollar Ends Day Lower but FOMC Holds Back the Bears Euro Advance on Inflation, Growth Updates Under ECB Watch Yen Crosses Retreat as BoJ Further Quells QE Upgrade Hopes Dollar Ends Day Lower but FOMC Holds Back the Bears This past session offered up a remarkably weak 1Q US GDP release which made […]

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