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Top trade idea for May 16th, 2016 – USD/CHF

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the USD/CHF has crept up close to a strong resistance. A break at 0.98 is expected and then a strengthening of the USD against the franc to 0.9940. Look to buy dollar only after a break in the level and a consolidation above 0.98 that doesn’t last long. The last […]

Top trade idea for April 19th, 2016 – USD/CHF

USDCHF has turned sharply higher last week, clearly with impulsive price action away from 100% Fibonacci level of wave A) compared to wave C). We have seen a very strong turn back above black wave 4 swing that puts a low in place so we need to be aware of even more upside in days […]

Top trade idea for April 14th, 2016 – USDCHF

Despite the move higher I am looking for another pullback on the USDCHF pair and if you want the fact that it is hesitating at this upper side of a channel makes the trade quite appealing. It is a risky trade though as possibilities for this triangle at the end of a complex correction are […]

Top trade idea for April 5th, 2016 – USD/CHF and USD/JPY

USDCHF USDCHF did not go far for the last 48 hours so it appears that bears are still here and that current sideways price action is just another pause within down trend. That said, we think that USDCHF is going to see a new low soon, out from a triangle that already shows signs of […]

FX5: Risk Aversion Dominates Euro Session

Five-things the markets are talking about The equity market’s big swings have greatly subsided, leaving many wondering – what is next? Major indexes drifted higher yesterday in a quiet trading session, as investors seemed to shy away from making any ‘big’ bets at the start of this holiday-shortened trading week. With earning’s season virtually complete […]

FX5: Fed Loses Some Street Cred, Dollar Crashes

Five things the markets are talking about This month was always going to be about the “battle of the Central Banks.” Two-weeks in and they have not disappointed. Some are aggressive, some passive, but they are all in agreement on one thing, they consistently express a cautious tone on the global economy. Yesterday’s FOMC announcement […]

Top trade idea for March 10th, 2016 – USDCHF

This USDCHF pair is not going anywhere to the downside until it completes a contracting triangle at the end of a contracting triangle, namely wave e. This wave is extremely vicious as it implies multiple crossings up and down the parity level until this one is looking its importance. Now that the b-d trend line […]

Top trade idea for January 27th, 2016 – USD/CHF

Two weeks ago, we highlighted a constructive candlestick pattern off bullish trend line support on USD/CHF and concluded that the pair could well bounce toward near-term Fibonacci resistance levels at 1.0120 (61.8%) and 1.0210 (78.6%). It took its time getting there, but USD/CHF finally edged up to test the 1.0210 level yesterday, leaving the pair […]

SNB Suffers Record 23 Billion-Franc Loss

The Swiss National Bank estimates that it incurred a record loss of 23 billion francs ($23 billion) last year after it abandoned its currency cap. The appreciation of the franc that followed the Jan. 15 decision resulted in a loss of 20 billion francs on its foreign-currency positions, the central bank said in a statement […]

Top trade idea for December 24th, 2015 – USDCHF

This Christmas sees the US dollar on a move lower even though if you are comparing the actual distance travelled on various US dollar pairs after the Fed rate hike, it is not that much of a correction. Above is the usdchf pair, one pair that is difficult to be traded due to the instability […]

Top trade idea for November 3rd , 2015 – USD/CHF

USDCHF has been moving sideways since end of March. We see five price swings between two trendlines that reminds us on a triangle formation. That’s an A-B-C-D-E pattern that occurs in the direction of a trend, so it’s a continuation formation that suggests more upside for USDCHF. In fact this bullish trend continuation is already […]

US Dollar Seeks Support

On the fundamental front, this coming week is a busy one with many key data releases giving an updated look at global growth. In Australasia, Japan’s key quarterly Bank of Japan (BoJ) Tankan survey (Thursday) will be reported along with last month’s retail sales, household spending and unemployment. A host of September Purchasing Managers Index’s […]

D-Day For The Fed: Extreme Price Movement Expected

If Ms. Yellen and her fellow policy makers do happen to pull the rate trigger later this afternoon (2pm EST), it will be the first U.S rate hike in just under a decade. It’s not what the Fed does; a hike of 25bps or less, but what they say that investors should focus on. Capital […]

Euro, Pound Eyeing CPI and GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Outlook

Talking Points: US Dollar Down Overnight, Swiss Franc Higher on Upbeat 2Q GDP Figures Euro, Pound Eye German CPI and UK GDP Data to Shape Jackson Hole Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having rallied against most of the majors […]

Top trade idea for August 6th, 2015 – USDCHF

I am looking for a 2nd wave to complete in the usdchf pair and this means we should see a break below the 0.9750 before doing anything. A triangle cannot be the second wave in any Elliott Waves pattern, but it can be part of a second wave, namely part of a complex correction for […]

Risk Aversion Dominates After Greece Votes “No”

Markets slide on Greece’s historic vote Greek-E.U. political jousting dictates proceedings Markets take Greek rejection in stride Investors look to central banks for guidance Capital markets were expecting a narrow “yes” victory in Sunday’s Greek referendum, the restart of negotiations with its creditors, and the likely end to Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s government. Instead investors […]

USD/CAD on Cusp of Breakout as EUR/USD Retreats

Talking Points: EURUSD back down towards $1.1100 after Greek letter circus. USDCAD breaking through TL from March, June highs. See the DailyFX economic calendar for Wednesday, July 1, 2015. The USDOLLAR Index is looking on firmer ground after yesterday’s recent uptrend retest. We’re not just talking about the individual components of the index, in particular […]

Top Trade Idea For July 1st, 2015 – USD/CHF

The constant barrage of Greek headlines continues unabated, with the latest batch of rumors suggesting variously that the “no” votes for this weekend’s referendum are gaining momentum, that the Greek government will cancel this weekend’s referendum, that a breakthrough deal between Greece and her creditors is imminent, and that the two sides are further apart […]

Safe Haven CHF Leaves Investors Exposed to SNB Wrath

Greece situation sets off highest market volatility since 2008 EUR filling in that plummeting gap SNB vocal about today’s intervention Market looking to yen for help Finding temporary safety to alleviate some of the Grexit pressure that is currently being imposed on capital markets is not that easy. Even the traditional safer option, like owning […]

Will Greece Ruin Capital Markets Weekend?

Major currencies contained for the moment Be prepared for a take-it-or-leave-it deal SNB’s Jordan will intervene or lower rates Liquidity to become more of an issue The forex market appears totally jaded with what’s going down, or not, with Greece and its creditors. For now, currency price moves are relatively contained, notwithstanding the odd fluctuation […]

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