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Top Trade Idea For August 27th,2014 – EUR/CHF

Since the Swiss National Bank (SNB) imposed its peg in EUR/CHF, this cross has only traded below 1.20 a handful of times, and each time it has bounced off this important level of support. In the three years that the peg has been in place, the market hasn’t tested the SNB’s resolve with any gusto. […]

USDOLLAR in at 6-Month High after Jackson Hole; USD/CHF Hits Target

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index at highest level since 2/7/2014. USDCHF opens week in 0.9160/89 target zone. US Dollar strength in August shouldn’t surprise – it’s a seasonally strong month. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium has yielded bullish results for the US Dollar, which isn’t necessarily a surprise given the recent strength of the US […]

Trade Idea For August 25th,2014 – USD/NOK

Over the past few weeks, USD/NOK (Norwegian Krone) has fallen almost 3% from almost 6.31 to 6.13. The subsequent pullback from 6.13 has also been weak only reaching 6.20. As we feel it should reach 6.22-6.24, we’ll discuss a way to place a trade allowing for the fact that we’re unsure which form the correction […]

Week In FX Europe – Russia Has Euro Stocks Offside

Europe closes on “wrong side of right” EUR’s weakening stride intact German 10-year Bund trade at +0.97% Ms. Yellen has come and gone and her labor and rate thoughts will be deciphered in greater detail after the weekend. The European session is closing on the “wrong side of right” as fresh signs of escalation to […]

EUR/USD Slide Continues but EUR Weakness Elsewhere Questionable

Talking Points: EURUSD cracks to fresh yearly lows at 1.3241. USDCHF has resumed its move towards 0.9160/89. US Dollar strength in August shouldn’t surprise – it’s a seasonally strong month. EURUSD and USDCHF are back in tandem, and while that mean a bit more EURUSD weakness as USDCHF tries for $0.9160, that doesn’t mean that […]

Governor Carney’s Chameleon Efforts Lift GBP

Risk-on and -off trading remains the order of the day at least until the investor is convinced that the geopolitical landscape has changed for the better. If one eliminates geopolitical aggressive pricing actions from the equation then investors are left dealing with tenuous global growth to price. In a week stacked with central bank meetings […]

Week in FX Europe – the Euro Needs a Catalyst

Lower for longer rates policy remains intact Global bourses eke out a weekly win Periphery debt outperforms Bunds Weak global data has the market again pricing the lower-for-longer mantra mostly in play by the main central banks. Investors this week were exposed to a multitude of weaker economic reports from Japan to Europe and even […]

GBPCHF hits major support level in bearish move

The GBPCHF pair has been moving towards the downside over the past two weeks following the breakout of a strong ascending channel formation. This has continued apace today following the sell-off inspired by events at the BoE. The rejection of the upper threshold of the current descending wedge also coincided with the 50% retracement. This […]

US Dollar Coils for Next Leg – Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Talking Points: EURUSD remains bearish sub-1.3475. GBPUSD could spill into 1.6700, USDCHF flags for 0.9160/89. August forex seasonality in QE era supports a stronger US Dollar. Although FX market volume and volatility are still mostly uncomfortably low for breakout and momentum traders, the recent flurry in activity during the first week of August may be […]

Trade Idea for August 11th, 2014 – USD/CHF

For most of July, USD/CHF (Swiss Franc) steadily rose about 250 pips or 3% from 0.8855 to 0.9106. Since then, the price action has been range-bound in an 85 pip channel between around 0.9030 and 0.9115. We feel the rise should reach 0.9150 and will suggest a way to trade that.   This four-hour chart […]

Week in FX Europe – Few Surprises, More Questions

ECB continues its dovish, dulcet tone Investors seek BoE timing clues next week No fast-forwarding QE for Draghi Nowadays it’s in a central bank’s DNA to jawbone a currency lower. If it’s not Governor Glenn Stevens at the Reserve Bank of Australia, then it’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Mario Draghi. There were no […]

Rebound likely as USDCHF returns to previous resistance

The USDCHF pair continues to climb following the breakout of a descending channel formation earlier this month. Gradual stepped increases in price action finally led to a break above 0.9035 to find a four month high on Friday and with price now pulling back I expect support to come in at that major previous resistance […]

Fed, NFPs Line Up this Week with USD Technical Breakouts

Talking Points: EURUSD aims below 1.3400, USDCHF above 0.9150. GBPUSD critical support comes in at 1.6920. July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however. A culmination of factors may be aligning for further US Dollar strength over the coming days, even as the economic calendar comes in rather light until Wednesday. However, […]

Top Trade Idea For July 28th, 2014 – AUD/CHF

As a keen skier, it’s no surprise that Switzerland is one of my preferred European destinations given its slopes, scenery, crisp air and hiking. But during the past year or so, something has been missing. Where are all the Australians? That very distinctive accent has been heard less and less during the past year and […]

EUR/USD Breakdown, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD Breakouts Eyed this Week

Talking Points: EURUSD below July 2012-July 2013 TL, needs below 1.3475. GBPCAD and USDCAD still both point to breakouts higher. Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD. It’s admittedly another quiet start to the trading week, with fewer than ten economic data releases (including central banker speeches) on the calendar for […]

Week in FX Europe: EUR Limps into next Week

EUR’s stability well contained Investors have confidence in the ECB Fed to maintain dovish strategy Restricted to a tight trading range against the U.S. dollar, the euro is holding steady against the greenback to end the week despite Thursday’s mini-capital markets meltdown thanks to Portugal’s highly publicized banking problems. The EUR’s stability suggests investors believe […]

GBPCHF finds yet another fib support in bullish move

The GBPCHF pair has been trading in a clear ascending channel since March with fibonacci retracement playing a major part in each step. With the price having just pulled back yet again, signs point towards a next leg higher in the coming days. The daily chart below shows that the pair has been respecting the […]

Top Trade Idea For June 18th, 2014 – USD/CHF

There is some key event risk for this pair over the next 24 hours. First up you have the FOMC meeting later on Wednesday.There is some speculation that the Fed Governor could follow the path of the Bank of England and suggest that rate increases could happen sooner than the market currently expects for the […]

USDCHF finds support as we await a breakout

The USDCHF pair continues to respect the 200 day moving average as support while price action forms a flag formation following a move higher over the past month. It is worth waiting for the breakout of this current consolidation to bring about another significant move. The daily chart shows a significant degree of support provided […]

Top Trade Idea For June 16th, 2014– GBP/CHF

The week right after June’s NFP was rather quiet but volatility may have begun to brew as of market’s close last week since traders could be expecting market sentiments to impact the before-and-after of this week’s economic events.  What should we as traders be aware of in the upcoming days and weeks in order to […]

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