Nov. 12, 2011 (Allthingsforex.com) – In case the market decides to pay attention not only to headlines from Italy and Greece but also to economic data, the week ahead will offer plenty of insights on inflation and economic conditions in some of the world’s largest economies. In preparation for the new trading week, here is [...]
The 4H GBP/CHF chart looks like its developing a double top, where the second top is slightly higher. Note the RSI showing bearish divergence as well. The 1.4370 level is the base of this topping formation. Also note the possible completion of a 5-wave impulse structure.
This morning CPI data from Switzerland showed mild deflation starting to emerge as all metric came in showing negative price growth. The expectation of .2% YoY price growth was not met as the actual data came in showing - .1%. While one reading does not make a trend, this could be a sign of things to [...]
Nov. 5, 2011 (Allthingsforex.com) – Although much lighter on pivotal economic data, the trading week ahead will not be any less intriguing as headlines from the Euro-zone debt crisis continue to dictate the market’s direction and traders prepare for the next act of the Greek drama, while keeping an eye on the political situation in [...]
After bouncing off of channel support, GBP/CHF rallied sharply through 1.40 and 1.4050 and is now at the channel resistance near 1.4080. The rSI in the 4H chart is also testing 60, a break above which helps confirm a change in trend from bearish to at least sideways if not bullish mode. Note also the fact that the market is pushing above the 200 period simple moving average…
Review: GBP/CHF broke out of a rising channel, maintained bullish momentum for a while and attempted to continue the rally but failed at the 1.4265 pivot. The 4H chart shows the failure of the RSI to break back above 60. It then came down to test the 200-period simple moving average in the 4H time-frame and was supported at 1.40 for a period…
The EUR/CHF has been bullish. 1) After tagging 70, the RSI reading has stayed above 40. It is now rising above 60, and about to kiss 70 again, reflecting maintenance of bullish momentum.
The Euro was broadly lower on the negative headlines from Slovakia, which suggest that the next tranche of Greek bailout aid might be delayed. Forex markets reacted negative, with the Euro and other high yielding currencies selling off after the news. The Euro had been moderately higher previous to this, however, so the latest declines are still being viewed as a retracement. One of the main issues to watch going forward is the political volatility seen in many of the EU nations. Italian President, Silvio Berlusconi had some notable difficulty when he appointed a new head to the Bank of Italy (as the previous head, Draghi, left to assume control of the ECB). Political agreements will need to be forged in Italy if there is any hope of a longer term European solution, and this will need to be accompanied by austerity measures as a means for achieving stability in its national budget. Italy currently has a debt market totaling roughly 2 billion Euros, so any difficulties in Italy would bring renewed pressure to the Euro and regional equity markets. The main story of the day was the Slovakian opposition party, which managed to derail the latest EFSF vote and this could bring potential delays to the next Greek bailout disbursement. The next Slovakian EFSF vote will be held on Friday. In addition to this, German officials are looking to require more stringent write-downs on Greek debt. Other headlines are centering on Erste Group in Austria which announced large losses within its CDS portfolio despite the fact that the bank managed to passes the last round of stress tests given to European banks. This brings severe damage to the credibility of these tests and raises the possibility that we are not finished seeing headlines like this. Sovereign debt spreads are widening even with interest rate differentials in Germany and the USA leveling out
To end last week, GBP/CHF was testing a declining trendline that went back to May 2010 near. The failure to break above 1.45 shows that the market is respecting this long-term resistance so far. This week started with a correction back to a critical pivot near 1.4130.
The GBP/CHF Weekly chart shows the market coming up against an important pivot at 1.45. This is the crossroad of a declining trendline since MAy 2010 and a previous support area in late 2010. The RSI is also about to knock at the 60 level, above which the long-term bearish momentum would be eliminated…
The 4H GBP/CHF Chart shows a ranging market after a sharp rally earlier in September. The 9/6/2011 rally was due to the SNB announcing that it would try to soften the CHF by buying EUR in and selling CHF in order to keep EUR/CHF above 1.20. This created CHF-weakness across the board. Since that initial surge, the GBP/CHF extended gains to 1.4146, but has failed to sustain a bullish continuation falling instead into a range-bound market…
Forex Notes If you had a short position in the EURO heading into today’s ECB press conference held by Trichet, you were rewarded after an initial shake. The mentioning of lessened inflationary risk and downside economic risk gave the EUR further reason to fall. The EUR/USD fell below the 1.40 and further below this week’s low at 1.3970 , reaching almost 1.3940 before a pause to the reaction. IF the market can hold below 1.40 on a pullback, it is poised to look for lower support near 1.3850 , with 1.39 also serving as an possible psychological support
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) followed through on rumors from the previous weeks that they would set a target rate for the Swiss franc (CHF) at 1.20 per Euro. The Central bank came out and said that they woudl use “unlimited resources” to defend that level so the Swissie fell by roughly 7% in one [...]
Forex Notes The Swiss Franc has been strong due to its safe haven status. However, that strength has now forced the hands of the SNB to effectively peg the exchange rate at 1.20 Swiss Franc per Euro and defend that level with determination . This shot the EUR/CHF from 1.1040 levels to 1.2190 levels before stalling around 1.2040 heading into the Tuesday US session. This is an incredible 1000+ pips in the span of 3 hours
USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and GBP/CHF in Sharp Corrections; Swissie-Strength Reflect Fading of Intervention Concerns
Forex Notes USD/CHF The USD/CHF accelerated its bearish correction in Friday’s European session. The 4H chart shows a break below the 200SMA, and the market at 38.2% retracement and previous consolidation support levels. The market has a good place to park until the NFP release Friday 8:30AM EDT.
The financial markets can sometimes be described as creatures of habit so when the market is expecting some type of action and it doesn’t occur, it can lead to a snap-back. This appears to be taking place with the Swiss franc (CHF) today, as so far every Wendesday this month, teh Swiss National Bank (SNB) [...]
Forex Video Technical Update The Swissie continues to shed strength, and in an aggressive manner. We saw consolidation and congestion patterns break at the end of last week, and price action is following through to start this week. Let’s take a look at the breakouts in the USD/CHF , EUR/CHF , GBP/CHF and CHF/JPY charts.
Forex Notes The Swiss Franc seemed to be the more determined mover today, not the USD, as you may expect because of Bernanke’s leaving out QE3. Perhaps after the media has talked about this possibility for the past couple of days already, the market just does not find it surprising and is back to wondering where the USD should go with no new clues. The CHF market however, was a determined mover today.
Forex Notes The Swiss Franc went from the safe haven darling to a non-responsive currency. You can say that for now, it seems like whatever creativity the SNB had that the BoJ didn’t have is working to stabilize the Swiss Franc below its record highs against the USD, EUR, and GBP. In other words, after digging out new record lows, the USD/CHF, EUR/CHF, and GBP/CHF are now trading in ranges within ranges. It may take a week of speculation within these ranges ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium that is suppose to start on Thursday, before the market decides whether these pairs should be within these range-bound levels.
Earlier this morning, the markets were left somewhat disappointed in the lack of action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) with regard to how they are going to manage their currency. Recent statements about a possible peg to the Euro or the setting of a target rate for the franc went unfulfilled as the [...]