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Dollar Squeeze Remains Intact

The initial reaction by investors to Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole was one of elation, however, the euphoria has been short lived, as markets now adjust to a more “hawkish” FED – equities down, dollar up and treasury yields rallying. The timing of the U.S’s first-rate hike is always going to be an issue, […]

Dollar Looks for Support From Yellen

Five things the markets are talking about Capital markets will be fully focused on Fed Chair Yellen’s speech today at Jackson Hole symposium (10am EDT), looking for clues on the timing of the next Fed rate hike. Will they get it? History will say no. Her speech is titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit” […]

Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition

Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition Today’s focus will clearly be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, which is scheduled to be delivered at 10 am EST. According to the Curriculum, the topic is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future”, which is, in itself, a rather academic-sounding piece and unlikely […]

Is the Fed setting the stage for a lower normal rate horizon?

Five things the markets are talking about Currently, the Fed is saying one thing, but the market is trading on something else. Recent official rhetoric expects a rate increase sometime this year, but the U.S yield curve is not pricing that in at the moment. In fact, the first full +25bp increase is not priced […]

Markets Fish For Fed Clues

Five things the markets are talking about Most of the big’ dollars strength has come on the back of a number of ‘bullish’ Fed member comments over the past few sessions. Late last week, Fed members Dudley and Williams both suggested that they would not completely rule out an interest rates hike in September. Last […]

Week Ahead USD on Retreat Ahead of Central Bank Summit

The Jackson Hole Symposium will focus on how to build monetary policy for the future The U.S. dollar has depreciated across the board after mixed comments from Fed members and the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July minutes showed that even though some members are in favor of a rate hike, they […]

Sterling Bears Feel the Heat After Retail Sales

Five things the markets are talking about It’s not a surprise to see the dollar turning lower post-FOMC minutes yesterday. The Fed’s communiqué illustrated a conflicted outlook for rate hikes; with some Fed members wanting to wait until inflation firms and others saying a rate increase would be warranted. A confusing message should have been […]

EURJPY – Is the Trading Range About to be Broken?

The euro has been trading within quite a tight range against the yen over the last couple of weeks between 112.50 and 114 and only today failed at the upper end of the range, but is it done there?The pair entered the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart for the second time in that period, […]

Top trade idea for August 18th, 2016 – EURUSD

The EURUSD looks set to completely retrace the Brexit move if one is judging by the aggressiveness of this bullish reaction. However, from my point of view this is nothing but a bearish triangle part of a double combination and this triangle needs to break lower, not higher. That being said, staying short and fading […]

Will Investors Get FED Clarity Today?

Five things the markets are talking about Today’s is FOMC minute’s reporting day. Will investors get the granularity on the timing of U.S rate normalization they so much crave? Market odds are leaning towards a resounding ‘no.’ Already this week, investors have been served up some mixed messages from voting and non-voting members. Net result, […]

Abe’s Arrows Fail As USD/JPY Eyes 100.00

MORE ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT FROM JAPAN SEES USD/JPY PERCHED OMINOUSLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL. The urgency of Japans extra budget and the limits of Quantitative Easing were starkly revealed yesterday as the Japanese economy unexpectedly showed 0% GDP growth in the June quarter of 2016. This followed an anaemic growth of 0.5 % in Q1. […]

Dollar on the Defense After More Bad News

Five things the markets are talking about The ‘big dollar’s demise over the past few trading sessions is being driven by mixed U.S data and fixed incomes’ repricing of the U.S yield curve. The first regional Fed factory report for the month yesterday did not bode well for U.S manufacturing (dropped sharply to -4.2 from […]

EURGBP – New Post-Brexit High in Sight

The euro is closing in on the post-Brexit highs against the pound today and could be eyeing levels not hit since August 2008.A weak performance in the pound towards the end of last week combined with a strong performance in the euro in the last couple of days has propelled the pair higher and could […]

Be Wary of RBNZ Announcement

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday, the average implied volatility on G10 currencies, an indicator of expected swings over the next month, fell to its lowest level since January 2015. That, of course, is when the SNB lifted its cap on the CHF. The Fed and other Tier 1 central banks have played […]

Dollar Positions Recalibrate

Five things the markets are talking about Investors are revising their latest outlook about the direction of the ‘mighty’ dollar – mainly on account of last week’s stellar non-farm payroll (NFP) report and the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest rate decision – and the changing odds for a Fed rate hike in H2. This mood […]

Week Ahead After Strong NFP Dollar Rally to Face Retail Sales Challenge

US jobs gain puts Fed’s September rate hike back on The U.S. added 255,000 jobs in July exceeding expectations after adding a revised 292,000 jobs in June. The May employment figures were also revised upward from a horrendous 11,000 to 24,000. The USD gained across the board as employment continues to be the strongest pillar […]

Dollar Bulls Rely On A Strong NFP

Five things the markets are talking about Investors continue to look for signs that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground, and today’s ‘granddaddy’ of all fundamental releases, non-farm payrolls (NFP), will provide another glimpse of the health of the U.S economy. Last month’s employment print showed that the U.S added a whopping +287k jobs […]

BoE’s Carney Has Two Choices

Investors are jaded with central bank decisions, yet in a matter of three-weeks the Bank of England (BoE) this morning readdresses the fallout of the historic Brexit decision. Recent U.K data has been dismal – reports point to slumping growth this quarter. In July, BoE official’s surprised investors by keeping overnight rates unchanged, but signaled […]

EURUSD – Will Confirmation Trigger Another Rally

The euro has been boosted against the dollar since last Friday following the release of the US Q2 GDP data that delivered a hammer blow to rate hike chances and therefore the greenback.OANDA fxTrade Platform The moves that followed took the pair through the 1.1150 resistance that it had traded primarily within for the month […]

Big Dollar Squeeze Remains In Effect

Five things the markets are talking about The dollar has fallen to its lowest level since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union due to the markets growing scepticism about policy makers’ efforts to boost growth and as oil prices hover around their three-month lows. Investors are worried that last Friday’s weak GDP figure […]

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