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Pound, Euro and US Dollar Aim Higher on BOE, ECB and Fed Rhetoric

Talking Points: Pound, Euro May Rise as BOE, ECB Disappoint Dovish Market Expectations September Fed Meeting Minutes May Boost US Dollar, Undercut Risk Appetite See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The British Pound may continue higher after scoring the largest two-day advance in three weeks as the Bank of […]

Chart Of The Day For October 8th, 2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Euro Still Stuck in Quiet Consolidation Within Triangle Chart Formation Short Position Favored in Line with Long-Term Bias But Setup Still Absent The Euro remains locked between the narrowing boundaries of a Triangle chart pattern as prices await a clear-cut directional spark. Prices lost momentum after […]

Forex Looking For Central Bank Clues

IMF applies the pressure: Not a surprise to many, Ms. Lagarde and co. have again cut their outlook for global economic growth. They have trimmed their July forecasts to +3.1% from +3.3%, mentioning falling commodity prices, tumbling EM currencies and global financial instability as the reason for the downgrade. The IMF officials (along with the […]

Central Banks “Pretend and Extend” Intact

October continues its positive trend: Friday’s disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) report has the market repricing the Fed’s first-rate liftoff in a decade (October +5%, December +28% and dropping fast, March 2016 +50%). Yesterday’s disappointing weakness in the U.S services ISM continues to translate into risk-on flows into the U.S. as “lower for longer” rate policies […]

Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: Euro, Yen May Rise if Fed Comments Rekindle 2015 Interest Rate Hike Bets Aussie Dollar Gains as RBA Keeps Cash Rate at 2%, Maintains Neutral Bias See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking […]

Euro Area Growth Slows, More Stimulus Eyed

The euro region’s economic recovery risks faltering after growth momentum eased in September, Markit Economics said. A Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing and services fell to 53.6 in September from 54.3 in August, the London-based company said in a report on Monday. That’s below a Sept. 23 preliminary reading of 53.9. A print above 50 […]

US Payrolls Disappoint, Dollar Gives Up Early Gains

Payrolls rose less than projected in September, wages stagnated and the jobless rate was unchanged as people left the workforce, signaling the global slowdown and financial-market turmoil are rippling through the world’s largest economy. The addition of 142,000 jobs followed a revised 136,000 gain the prior month that was lower than previously estimated, a Labor […]

Trade Setups in USD-pairs around September US NFPs

Talking Points: ST EURUSD triangle begins to break lower; $1.1085 critical support. USDJPY remains rangebound, although NFPs could change that. See the DailyFX economic calendar for Thursday, October 1, 2015. Coming into today, the USDOLLAR Index is trading in an intraweek bull flag just below the early-September highs. With the help of a strong September […]

U.S Weekly Claims Point To Firmer Jobs Market

The number of new applications for U.S. jobless benefits rose modestly last week and a gauge of the trend in claims fell, pointing to ongoing tightening in the labor market that could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 277,000 for the […]

FX: Final Quarter, But Same Rules Apply

For equities in particular, Q3 ended yesterday solidifying their worst quarterly performance in four-years. In the three- month period, global stocks lost over -$11T in value. In forex, trading ranges have been relatively contained as investors continue to seek central bank directional guidance. Nonetheless, the investing rules are not about to change in the home […]

Pound May Extend Drop as Soft PMI Data Trims BOE Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound May Extend Drop as Soft PMI Data Trims BOE Rate Hike Bets US ISM May Set Precedent for Risk Trends’ Response to Shifting Fed Outlook See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the calendar in European trading hours. The gauge is […]

German Unemployment Rises

German unemployment unexpectedly rose in September in a sign that Europe’s largest economy is not immune to risks from slowing growth in emerging markets. Joblessness increased a seasonally adjusted 2,000 to 2.795 million, the Federal Labor Agency in Nuremberg said on Wednesday. Economists had predicted a drop of 5,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at […]

Five Things Talked About Today

Euro-area inflation turns negative again, it’s the last day of an awful quarter and lots of Federal Reserve verbal interventions are due. Here are some of things people in markets are talking about today. 1. Euro-area inflation Inflation in the Euro-area unexpectedly turned negative in September, falling to minus 0.1 percent, according to a flash […]

FX Window Dressing For Quarter End

The last trading day of the quarter has given away to an Asian and Euro equity relief rally, not driven by fundamentals, but more than likely due to the various short covering and hedge fund “window dressing” demands. Either way, most of today’s intraday forex price moves will go unexplained. Nonetheless, the various risk-on flows […]

Pound at Risk on UK GDP Revision, US Dollar May Rise on Fed-Speak

Talking Points: British Pound Seems to be Biased Downward on Final 2Q UK GDP Figures US Dollar May Rise if Fed Commentary Bolsters 2015 Rate Hike Probability See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed while the safety-linked Japanese Yen faced selling pressure […]

Dollar Bulls To Stay Out Of Trouble

The forex space continues to play second fiddle to plummeting equity markets. Despite a plethora of U.S policy makers on tap this week, any FX moves to date remain relatively contained, but driven by risk aversion trading strategies. The market is very much at odds with the Fed’s timetable on rate normalization. Investors are being […]

Pound Eyes Carney Comments, Risk Aversion Poised to Continue

Talking Points: Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Follow-Through in German Inflation Figures British Pound Looks to Carney Comments for Cues After Hitting 5-Month Low See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Risk aversion continued to dominate financial markets in overnight trade. The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars plunged alongside […]

US Dollar Seeks Support

On the fundamental front, this coming week is a busy one with many key data releases giving an updated look at global growth. In Australasia, Japan’s key quarterly Bank of Japan (BoJ) Tankan survey (Thursday) will be reported along with last month’s retail sales, household spending and unemployment. A host of September Purchasing Managers Index’s […]

Mixed Fed Message Good For The Dollar Bull

Fed Chair Yellen solidifies expectations for 2015 liftoff: A week ago the Fed stood pat on rates partly on worries about global financial and economic developments. Their decisive inaction hurt what little confidence many investors had left after the August meltdown. Last night, Ms. Yellen played down those risks when highlighting the likelihood of a […]

US Gets A Boost From Consumer Spending

The world’s largest economy expanded more than previously forecast in the second quarter, boosted by gains in consumer spending and construction that may help the U.S. withstand a global slowdown. Gross domestic product rose at a 3.9 percent annualized rate, compared with a prior estimate of 3.7 percent, Commerce Department figures showed Friday in Washington. […]

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