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D-Day For The FED: Now What?

Five things the markets are talking about. The Fed’s two-day conclave ends today with investors eagerly awaiting this afternoon’s statement (no press conference) for any sign of changes in the FOMC’s thinking on rates. Given that Fed officials have shown sensitivity to financial conditions, and that riskier assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds have […]

Pound Squeeze Continues

Five things the markets are talking about. It tough to get excited about these markets ahead of the FOMC (Wednesday) and BoJ rate (Thursday) announcements this week. Investors prefer to remain non-committed ahead of the meetings, choosing instead to wade to the sidelines and wait for a stronger market signal. The Federal Open Market Committee […]

Caution In FX Ahead Of Rate Announcements

Five things the markets are talking about. This is a big week for capital markets on the Central Bank front. Both the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hold policy meetings. While the Fed is expected to maintain the status quo, Governor Kuroda could ease given the fallout from the […]

BoJ Eyeing Negative Rates On Loans

Having adopted a negative interest rate on some excess reserves to penalize financial institutions for leaving money idle, the Bank of Japan may consider helping them lend by offering a negative rate on some loans, according to people familiar with talks at the BOJ. Such a discussion could happen in conjunction with any decision to […]

EUR’s Calm Before The Storm?

Five things the markets are talking about. For the investor, it seems that risk sentiment is to prevail until told otherwise. Capital Markets continue to take its cue from a clear sign of stabilization in the commodity space, while also responding positively to the early reports of the ‘earnings season.’ Both Brent and WTI crude […]

Top trade idea for April 20th, 2016 – EUR/GBP

The outcome of the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision is due on Thursday. Having just expanded QE at the last meeting in March, the ECB is unlikely to alter its policy further at this meeting. Investors will therefore focus on Mario Draghi’s comments, in particular for any hints on cutting the deposit rate further […]

BoC Poloz: Opening Remarks To House of Commons

Good morning, Mr. Chairman and committee members. Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins and I are happy to be back to discuss the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which we published last week. I extend particular greetings to the new members of this committee, and look forward to being with you twice a year to talk about […]

FX5: Investor Risk Appetite On The Rise

Five things the markets are talking about Are investors back to trading risk? U.S markets started this week under modest pressure after oil producers failed to reach a deal on an output freeze in Doha over the weekend. Naturally, the energy complex started the week gapping lower, along with the commodity sensitive bloc of currencies. […]

Week Ahead in FX: USD Mixed Against Majors After Weak US Economic Data

Unemployment Claims was the sole Positive in a Week Filled with Disappointing US Data. U.S. retail sales disappointed with a 0.3 percent contraction when a slight expansion of 0.1 percent was expected. Removing volatile auto sales did not improve over estimates as core retail sales came in at 0.2 percent. The Producer Price Index (PPI) […]

U.S Retail Sales Unexpectedly Falls

Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in March, raising concern consumer spending is losing momentum. The 0.3 percent drop in purchases followed little change the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed Wednesday in Washington. The median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.1 percent gain. The decrease was led by the […]

Record Bullish Bets Fail To Advance Yen

Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted bullish-yen wagers to the highest since at least 1992 as Japan’s currency struggled to extend its gains into a seventh day. The yen advanced to a fresh 17-month high earlier on Monday after speculators defied rhetoric from Japanese authorities aimed at checking its advance. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide […]

Week Ahead in FX: USD Mixed Ahead of Retail Sales Data

Dovish FOMC Minutes Depreciated Dollar Before Global Risk Appetite Drop Brought it Back The USD struggled all week to string gains against majors on the back of mixed economic data. The U.S. trade balance showed a higher tan forecasted deficit (-47.1 billion) and a decrease of job openings (5.45 million) put downward pressure on the […]

FX5: EM Currency Pairs Play Catch Up

Five things the markets are talking about Global equity markets are taking back some of Thursday’s losses as we enter the final trading session of the week. With safe haven asset prices dominating proceedings, dealers continue to watch the yen closely, waiting for the proverbial ‘other shoe’ to make a direct material impact. With Japanese […]

U.S Weekly Claims Fall

Fewer Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week, illustrating a healthy labor market that’s allowing workers to feel more secure in their job. Jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 267,000 in the week ended April 2, a report from the Labor Department showed on Thursday. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for […]

FOMC Minutes to Validate Fed and Markets on US Rate Hikes

After hiking at the end of 2015 the Fed has now lowered Expectations to 2 Raises in 2016 The USD recorded the worst quarterly performance since 2010 as Fedspeak and Fedfacts have clashed. The March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) disappointed with its dovish tone, specially after the European Central Bank (ECB) had gone all […]

Risk Worries Has Yen On The Move

Five things the markets are talking about Trading volumes across the various asset classes are lower than usual, volatility is non descript, but brewing, while the ‘mighty’ dollar remains somewhat contained for now after Fed Yellen’s overtly ‘dovish’ stance in late March. With investors continuing to chase a clear directional play perhaps they will have […]

Crude Specs Bet Rally’s Over as Doubts Grow on Output Freeze

Five-things the markets are talking about Historically, the first trading session after a U.S jobs report tends to be the quietest trading session of the month. Yet, watching intraday asset price moves for 2016, no one could speculate with confidence that any trading session would be relatively tame. Overnight, Asian equity markets are modestly higher […]

Week Ahead in FX: Strong NFP Fails to Impress as Dovish Fed Cloud Lingers

Dovish Remarks from the Fed Kept the USD from Gaining on a Strong Jobs Report Employment remains the strongest and more resilient pillar of the U.S. economic recovery. The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) rose by 215,000 jobs in the last month. The unemployment rate rose slightly to 5.0 from 4.9 percent but due to […]

U.S. Payrolls Increased 215,000 in March

Employment in the U.S. climbed and wages picked up in March, signs of labor-market durability in the face of lethargic global growth. The 215,000 gain in payrolls followed a revised 245,000 February advance, a Labor Department report showed Friday. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent from a month earlier, while the jobless rate crept up […]

NFP: What The Markets Should Be Looking For

Tomorrow is the first Friday of a new month and that means only one thing – it’s non-farm payroll (NFP). All eyes will be front and center when March’s U.S monthly jobs report is released at 08:30 EDT. The NFP headline print will round off a week that has seen the USD come under renewed […]

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