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Chart Of The Day For May 22,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1059, 1.0934, 1.0808 Resistance:1.1214, 1.1310, 1.1466 The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected but an Inverted Hammer candlestick now hints a rebound may be brewing. Near-term resistance is at 1.1214, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily […]

Dollar Deflated by Fed Expectations and Eurozone Data

Fed: more talk and more data No June rate hike has the dollar under pressure European PMIs mixed, fragile recovery expected K. retail sales supports sterling There was nothing groundbreaking revealed yesterday in the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Market price action would suggest that it was an uninspired event ticking off most […]

Euro Losses on Soft PMI Data May Be Offset By ECB Meeting Minutes

Talking Points: Euro May Look Past Soft PMIs as ECB Minutes Dent Stimulus Expansion Bets US Dollar Corrects Lower as FOMC Minutes Fail to Boost Rate Hike Outlook See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App May’s preliminary set of Eurozone PMI figures headlines the data docket in European trading hours. […]

Chart Of The Day For May 21st,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1059, 1.0934, 1.0808 Resistance:1.1214, 1.1310, 1.1466 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence hinted at ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1059 exposes the 50% level at 1.0934. Alternatively, a turn above the […]

Fed Minutes Eyed, Rate Hike Chatter Ensues

Rate divergence trade trends again ECB in direct conflict to “trade of a lifetime” FOMC minutes to provide direction for dollar supporters BoE not worried about deflation The rule of thumb is that central banks prefer not to be seen as interfering with markets unless they are out of sync with fundamentals or preventing policies […]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD into Trend Support with FOMC Minutes Due

Talking Points: EURUSD snaps uptrend, heads to former resistance near $1.1050. GBPUSD holding April 13 uptrend after BoE minutes earlier. See the May forex seasonality report. The US Dollar is attempting at carving out a bottom after a five-week downtrend, but it faces a very legitimate test today when the April FOMC minutes are released. […]

Top Trade Idea for May 20th, 2015 – EUR/USD

On Monday, we highlighted a short-term bearish Butterfly pattern on EURUSD, noting that the pattern “suggest[ed] a move down toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire ABCD pattern at 1.1220, though the 38.2% retracement at 1.1310 could serve as a more achievable near-term target” (see “EURUSD: Greece’s Doomsday Clock is Nearing Midnight” for more). […]

Chart Of The Day For May 20th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak,  Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1104, 1.0992, 1.0881 Resistance:1.1242, 1.1327, 1.1466 The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected, with sellers now threatening to push through the 1.11 figure. Near-term support is at 1.1104, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis […]

EUR Bears Put the Boot In

ECB members deliver single currency a massive blow Bund curve flattens on front-loaded comments EUR breaks through psychological €1.1200 handle BoE’s Carney not worried about deflation Last month’s Bund rout that caused yields to spike and Treasury-Bund spreads to tighten supported the EUR. Any comments that would flatten the Bund yield curve would have an […]

Chart Of The Day For May 19th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1242, 1.1104, 1.0992 Resistance:1.1327, 1.1463, 1.1565 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence hinted at ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1242 exposes the 38.2% level at 1.1104. Alternatively, a turn above the […]

Chart Of The Day For May 18th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1335, 1.1257, 1.1130 Resistance:1.1463, 1.1565, 1.1668 The Euro advanced for a fourth consecutive day, hitting the highest level in over three months against the US Dollar. Near-term resistance is at 1.1463, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis […]

EURGBP – Double Bottom Brings More Consolidation

Sterling has dominated the euro for most of the last two years and that accelerated between January and March this year, after which we started to see some consolidation. The question that arose following this is whether the consolidation is a bottoming out in the pair or just a breather before the next leg lower, […]

A Shot Across the Bow for the EUR Bull

Draghi’s crying call supports QE trades Euro session looking To re-establish EUR shorts Bund and Treasury yields capped for now Traders zero in on commodity currencies’ performance George Soros’s Quantum fund did take on the Bank of England and broke it on what is known as Black Wednesday in 1992, but in general, investors should […]

These Conditions Need to be Met Before USDOLLAR Bottoms

Talking Points: EURUSD, GBPUSD slide back from recent highs. USDOLLAR Index still in counter-trend, bearish condition. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite a rebound that’s materialized the past 24-hours, it’s still too early to call a bottom in the USDOLLAR Index. As EURUSD puts in a truncated top by failing to reach its channel […]

Chart Of The Day For May 15th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1335, 1.1257, 1.1130 Resistance:1.1463, 1.1565, 1.1668 The Euro continues to push upward, issuing the strongest close in three months against the US Dollar. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1.1463 exposes the 50% level at 1.1565. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib […]

US Economy’s Chill Leaves The Dollar Cold

EUR busts through psychological €1.1400 handle Inflated EUR to hurt export-dominated Europe Crude prices supported by production, not global growth Fed rate hike being pushed into 2016 With widespread concern the U.S. economy’s cooling in the first quarter has less to do with winter and more to do with flagging consumerism, the greenback dipped to […]

USDOLLAR Index Losses May Have Further to Run

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index achieves head & shoulders target of 11650/60. January swing low near 11587 now in focus. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite achieving its head & shoulders topping target, there is evidence the greenback may remain under pressure in the days ahead. The USDOLLAR Index has evolved into more of a […]

Chart Of The Day For May 14th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1335, 1.1257, 1.1130 Resistance:1.1463, 1.1565, 1.1668 The Euro is testing the highest level in three months against the US Dollar, with prices now eyeing resistance above the 1.14 figure. Near-term resistance is at 1.1463, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a […]

Top trade idea for May 14th, 2015 – EURUSD

It seems that the eurusd pair just finished an impulsive move to the upside and the medium term uptrend seems to be finished. Funny is that this five waves structure seems to be a leg of a contracting triangle, the b wave, and it is an elongated flat. These kind of patterns appear almost exclusively […]

Pound May Rise as BOE Inflation Report Rekindles Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: Pound May Rise as Upbeat BOE Inflation Report Fuels Rate Hike Bets NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Warns on Loose Monetary Policy Dangers Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in First-Quarter GDP Report The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade after the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report (FSR). The document identified […]

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