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Will Super Mario Stand and Deliver on QE?

Will Draghi change market’s assessment of QE? QE program details expected USD on a high as European yields tank EUR positioning pushes currency to new lows Markets are waiting to scrutinize European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi’s every word in a couple of hours. Investors and dealers want to know if he will say […]

Trade Setups in EUR-crosses and Expectations for ECB Meeting

Talking Points: Momentum remains firmly lower in EURGBP, EURUSD. ECB checklist: Greece; modalities of QE; economic projections. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Thursday, March 5, 2015. The ECB meeting today presents itself as both a placeholder and a weigh-station of sorts. As a placeholder, we already know that the ECB is moving forward with […]

Chart Of The Day For March 5th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0970, 1.0796, 1.0623 Resistance:1.1185, 1.1318, 1.1533 The Euro moved sharply lower against the US Dollar, with prices descending to the lowest level in over 11 years. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1.0970 exposes the 50% level at 1.0796. Alternatively, a reversal above […]

USD/CAD – BoC Expected to Hold and Be Dovish

India’s RBI implements a surprise cut BoC expected to be dovish EUR sits atop of January lows Eurozone sales data prevents EUR freefall So far this year the easing programs of the world’s biggest central banks are pushing the smaller national banks to new policy extremes. Nearly every other week investors are left to figure […]

Dollar Holds its Range as Traders Look to SPX and NFPs as Loaded Catalysts

Talking Points: Dollar Holds its Range as Traders Look to SPX and NFPs as Loaded Catalysts Euro: Is There More Easing from a Well-Priced ECB Stimulus Program? Australian Dollar Refuses to Break 0.79 Despite RBA Hold, Data, China Improvement Dollar Holds its Range as Traders Look to SPX and NFPs as Loaded Catalysts Event risk […]

Top Trade Idea For March 4th, 2015 – EUR/NZD

With the EUR/USD being on the verge of taking another leg lower, the EUR/NZD has already started its move.  A day before the European Central Bank meeting, the cross has broken to a fresh record low this morning.  Although not much will be expected from this particular meeting, the focus will be on how the […]

Chart Of The Day For March 4th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1185, 1.0970, 1.0796 Resistance:1.1318, 1.1533, 1.1659 The Euro is digesting losses after moving sharply lower to threaten the January swing low against the US Dollar. Near-term support is at 1.1185, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a sustained break below that exposing the 38.2% level at 1.0970. Alternatively, […]

USD/CAD – RBA Decision has the Loonie Bear Concerned

RBA keeps rates on hold Abe’s Aide guides Yen higher Will CAD’s GDP influence BoC Poloz? Market to focus on NFP Capital markets are finally on the move albeit slowly. Record low bond yields, record high global equities indices, and strained forex ranges are beginning to provide more trading opportunities in these first few days […]

Chart Of The Day For March 3rd,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1185, 1.0970, 1.0796 Resistance:1.1318, 1.1533, 1.1659 The Euro continues to digest losses after issuing its largest daily decline in nearly a month against the US Dollar. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 1.1185 exposes the 38.2% level at 1.0970. Alternatively, a reversal above the 1.1276-1318 […]

U.S Dollar Dominant in Deluge of Data

PBoC surprises Capital Markets with a cut AUD to be kept busy by RBA announcement Eurozone deflation pressures ease US jobs heading towards full employment The Peoples Bank of China managed to get the jump on Capital Markets over the weekend. Chinese policyholders cut interest rates by -25bps for the second time in less than […]

Too Early to Call a Bottom in EUR-crosses Despite CPI Data

Talking Points: EURUSD trades back above 1.1200 after Feb EZ CPI beats. Technical structures of EURGBP, EURJPY remain bearish. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Monday, March 2, 2015. Better than expected headline inflation data from the Euro-Zone in February comes as a welcomed development for the economically-beleaguered region, although it does not come as […]

Chart Of The Day For March 2nd,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1185, 1.0970, 1.0796 Resistance:1.1318, 1.1533, 1.1659 The Euro is digesting losses after moving sharply lower to threaten the January swing low against the US Dollar. Near-term support is at 1.1185, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing […]

Week In FX – Fed Gives Nothing Away, Dollar in Demand

Fed sticks to lower for longer S CPI an excuse to buy more dollars Fed September hike fully priced in Central Banks rate announcements dominate proceedings As to be expected, the Fed dominated this past week. Although the markets did not get the anticipated price moves when Yellen was giving her testimony on the ‘hill’, […]

Euro to Look Past German CPI, US Dollar Looks to 4Q GDP Revision

Talking Points: Euro Unlikely to Find Fuel in German CPI Data as ECB QE Launch Looms Larger-Than-Expected US GDP Markdown May Send US Dollar Downward See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Germany’s flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is […]

Chart Of The Day For February 27th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1185, 1.0970, 1.0796 Resistance:1.1318, 1.1533, 1.1659 The Euro moved sharply lower against the US Dollar, with prices attempting to clear path to the late-January low anew. Near-term support is at 1.1185, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis exposing the […]

GBP and EUR Data Gets Little Market Reaction

Yellen gives nothing away Investors prefer to wade out the month German debt print record low yields Bring on ECB and NFP It appears that the global investor is showing little reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s second day of testimony on the hill yesterday. She provided no new hints on the timing or pace of […]

US Dollar May Fall if Soft Core Inflation Data Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: Euro, Pound Unlikely to Find Volatility in UK GDP and German Jobs Data US Dollar May Decline if Soft Core CPI Weighs on Fed Rate Hike Outlook Australian Dollar Down as Weak Capex Report Boosts RBA Rate Cut Bets The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. A marginal improvement on […]

Chart Of The Day For February 26th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1276, 1.1185, 1.0970 Resistance:1.1533, 1.1659, 1.1832 The Euro remains in digestion mode after bottoming as expected against the US Dollar following the appearance of a bullish Morning Star candle pattern. A daily close above the February 3 high at 1.1533 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1659. […]

What a Surprise – No Firm Signals From Yellen

Yellen vague and ambiguous Fed upbeat on U.S job market Fed removed as market risk 28% chance of a June hike priced In Ms. Yellen’s testimony today she did not give the hawks what they were expecting, but on the other hand she was not overtly dovish either. Like any good Central Banker she was […]

Dollar Finds No Traction on Yellen’s Support for Hawkish Shift

Talking Points: Dollar Finds No Traction on Yellen’s Support for Hawkish Shift Euro Tuned into Greece Reform Review, Fear Fading Fast Australian Dollar Jerked Higher By Chinese Manufacturing Report Dollar Finds No Traction on Yellen’s Support for Hawkish Shift Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered her testimony before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday and the content […]

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