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Trump Effect Wont be Beat by NFP

Five things the markets are talking about It’s non-farm payroll (NFP) day and the event risk is not for a stronger number, that’s been covered ad nauseam, but for such a disappointing headline print that will unravel some of the baked in Fed rate hike set for Dec 14. The signs of that happening have […]

Top trade idea for December 2nd, 2016 – EUR/USD

The Euro is thinking about completing a bullish head and shoulder pattern. It’s doing so as markets head into the US Jobs data and the Italian referendum this weekend. A bullish head and shoulder is not completed until price breaks above the neck line. Given the potential for volatility surrounding the jobs data and referendum, […]

Trumps Dollar Surge to Die in December?

Five things the markets are talking about In November, Trump’s surprise U.S presidential win was a boon for the mighty dollar via the markets “reflation” trade hopes. Can the ‘big’ dollar gains be added to this month or has the market overshot the mark in their enthusiasm? The death of a deal is always in […]

OPEC to Save Face with a Disappointing Deal

Five things the markets are talking about No more jawboning – is there a deal? Will they or won’t they announce a production cut? It’s all that dealers and investors want to hear from OPEC in Vienna this morning. Should a barrel of crude be trading above +$50 or below +$40? Whatever the outcome, the […]

Top trade idea for November 30th, 2016 – EUR/CAD

Despite oil’s massive rally on the back of the OPEC news, the Canadian dollar, which tends to correlate strongly with oil prices, has hardly moved against its major rivals. Indeed, the USD/CAD momentarily turned positive. The EUR/CAD is still down on the day, but it too has held its own relatively well. One has to […]

OPEC’s Poker Game Trump Dollar Moves

Five things the markets are talking about Has the impact of President-elect Trump’s surprise victory on the dollar and commodities peaked or do investors just want to get this event risk week out of the way before again imposing the “reflation” trade again? Capital Markets appear to be in the holding pattern going into the […]

Dollar Succumbs to Profit Taking Ahead of Event Risks

Five things the markets are talking about Expectations that a OPEC production deal would unravel, a possible defeat in Sunday’s referendum in Italy and elections in Austria, coupled with the U.S presidential transition challenge of polls in battleground states by Clinton is dominating early trading. Consolidation in bonds and equities has been relatively muted compared […]

Week Ahead OPEC and US Jobs to Influence Markets

December rate hike boosted by encouraging Fed minutes Market action was interrupted by various holidays around the world but overall the U.S. dollar continued to rebuild the momentum it had after the elections. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in November sent a strong signal about a December rate hike. The CME’s FedWatch […]

U.S Dollar Stumbles, But Does Not Fall

Five things the markets are talking about It seems that investors are happy to take a breather in this holiday-shortened week as the dollar pares this week’s surge supported by U.S rate differentials. The “reflationary trade” continues to suck money back in to U.S equity markets, while putting further pressure on emerging market FX rates, […]

Top Trade Idea for 11/26/16 – EUR/AUD

  Mathematics is a pure and perfect world. Markets are not. While there are rules for defining technical factors and indicators, sometimes the art of technical analysis requires traders understand what the rules  mean  if they want to avoid crowded trades. This brings us to EUR/AUD. The downward move in EUR/AUD that began mid 2015 […]

U.S Dollar Hits Fresh Highs on Thanksgiving Holiday

Five things the markets are talking about The dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s strong U.S durable goods and consumer confidence data, along with Fed minutes that all but cemented a Fed rate hike next month. Europe’s single unit has fallen to its lowest level since March 2015 (€1.0518) on fears ahead of the […]

Asia Quiet on a Tokyo Holiday

Trading across all asset classes has been subdued in Asia today with a holiday in Tokyo and ahead of Thanksgiving in the United States. The market continues to catch its breath after an exciting two weeks with only AUD/USD showing signs of life in Asia trading today. AUD was buoyed by more frenzied buying of […]

Bond Rout Takes a Breather, FOMC Minutes Next

Five things the markets are talking about Death, taxes, and a Fed rate hike in December are life’s only certainties according to the bond market which now has the odds of an increase on Dec 14 at +100%. Markets will be watching todays FOMC minutes at (2:00pm EST) for that vindication, while seeking out the […]

Holiday Induced Consolidation

With the USD consolidation of sorts and the UST 10’s stabilizing around 2.31-32% as the global bond market sell-off abates, G-10 traders’ attention was diverted to the oil patch as the usual raft of OPEC headlines will provide crosswinds. The latest of which is not sitting well with traders, as WTI turned lower after it […]

Reality Checks and the US Dollar

A quiet weekend of news has seen the USD finally see some profit taking and even some whispers of “a meaningful technical correction.” However, before we get too carried away, I thought it would be interesting to see just how much of a technical correction we would need now to put a hole under the […]

US Dollar Marches on in Asia

The US Dollar marches on supreme today again Asia FX and G10 currencies, as both the USD Index (DXY) and US 10 Year yields hit new highs. There seems to be a global competition on as to who can be the ugliest horse in the glue factory against the USD at the moment. The USD […]

First Brexit, Now Trump, is Italy Next?

In a couple of weeks, on December 4, Italians go to the polls to vote on PM Renzi’s referendum for constitutional change. Renzi seeks to strengthen the power of the government by making it easier to pass laws. Will Italy be the next major economy to fall victim to the current “populist” environment overhaul? Early […]

Fed Hike Odds Near 100%

Five things the markets are talking about Dealers and investors are now seeing a near-certainty of a Fed rate hike next month, with odds of an increase rising to +94% from +86% after Tuesday’s retail-sales report. Yesterday, U.S retail sales advanced a seasonally adjusted +0.8% last month while September’s gain was boosted to +1%, marking […]

Top trade idea for November 16th, 2016 – EUR/USD

EURUSD is turning sharply lower now from 1.1300 area, where pair might have finally accomplished a big and very long sideways pattern in wave IV. It was a triangle pattern which is pointing now to new lows as price keeps trying to make a decisive break beneath the wave D swing low at 1.0847. EURUSD, […]

Market Moves Overdone?

Five things the market is talking about The speed and ferociousness of some of the price moves across the various asset classes since Donald Trump was elected U.S President have been stunning. The intensity of the sovereign bond rout has cost investors more than a +$1.5trillion dollars – U.S 10-year notes have backed up +41bps […]

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