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Chart Of The Day For July 30th, 2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644 Support: 1.3396, 1.3324, 1.3208 Resistance:1.3454, 1.3502-12, 1.3583 The Euro fell as expected against the US Dollar after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers are now eyeing support at 1.3396, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below this boundary initially exposes the 76.4% level at 1.3324. Alternatively, a move back above […]

Forex Market Subdued Ahead of FOMC, GDP

Investors appear to be positioning themselves conservatively ahead of the first reading of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product data tomorrow. It’s no surprise that there is very little movement in the major currency pairs before such a major economic release. Everyone seems comfortable in keeping his or her powder dry ahead of three days of […]

Chart Of The Day For July 29th, 2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644 Support: 1.3396, 1.3324, 1.3208 Resistance:1.3454, 1.3502-12, 1.3583 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below support at 1.3396, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion, clears the way for a decline to the 76.4% level at 1.3324. Alternatively, reversal back above the 50% […]

This Week: Suit Up, Strap In, And Be Dollar Ready

Last week saw global markets fluctuate between corporate earnings and geopolitical conflicts. There was an excess of negative news out of Israel and eastern Ukraine, with each region’s headlines countering much of the decent U.S. and European quarterly earnings reports. On the whole, the reports were relatively good, despite a couple of curve balls thrown […]

Fed, NFPs Line Up this Week with USD Technical Breakouts

Talking Points: EURUSD aims below 1.3400, USDCHF above 0.9150. GBPUSD critical support comes in at 1.6920. July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however. A culmination of factors may be aligning for further US Dollar strength over the coming days, even as the economic calendar comes in rather light until Wednesday. However, […]

Chart Of The Day For July 28th, 2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644 Support: 1.3396, 1.3324, 1.3208 Resistance:1.3454, 1.3502-12, 1.3583 The Euro fell as expected against the US Dollar after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers are now eyeing support at 1.3396, the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below this boundary initially exposes the 76.4% level at 1.3324. Alternatively, a move back above […]

New Zealand Dollar Down on Eroding RBNZ Rate Hike Outlook

Talking Points: New Zealand Dollar Down as RBNZ Rate Hike Outlook Continues to Erode US Dollar Looks to PMI, Home Sales Data to Set the Tone for a Busy Week View Economic Data Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The absence of top-tier scheduled event risk left currency markets rudderless in the […]

Chart Of The Day For July 25th, 2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644 Support: 1.3454, 1.3396, 1.3324 Resistance:1.3502-12, 1.3583, 1.3637 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below support at 1.3454, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, clears the way for a decline to the 61.8% level at 1.3396. Alternatively, reversal back above the 1.3502-12 […]

Midyear FX Outlook: The Mighty Buck’s Return Is Nigh

The question on every investor’s lips is, “when will the Fed raise interest rates?” Global currency markets continue to flounder in an environment of low volatility and volume despite being punctuated by periods of geopolitically induced risk events. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains a significant concern that was heightened by a Malaysian jetliner being was […]

Euro Selloff May Continue as PMIs Fuel Bets on More ECB Stimulus

Talking Points: Euro Selloff May Continue as PMI Data Fuels Bets on More ECB Stimulus New Zealand Dollar Tumbles as RBNZ Signals Shift to Wait-and-See Mode Aussie Dollar Tags 3-Week High After HSBC Reports Upbeat Chinese PMI The preliminary set of July’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide […]

Chart Of The Day For July 24th, 2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644 Support: 1.3454, 1.3396, 1.3324 Resistance:1.3502-12, 1.3583, 1.3633 The Euro fell as expected against the US Dollar after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. Sellers are testing support at 1.3454, the 50% Fibonacci expansion. A daily close below this boundary initially exposes the 61.8% level at 1.3396. Alternatively, a move back above the […]

RBNZ Bulls Not Affected By Dairy Prices

Capital markets require rate divergence for sustainable volatility, which in turn drives greater investor interest, more volatility and so on. The market just wants price movement. To date, central banks and option traders have been successful handcuffing the forex asset class to tight, contained, and boring currency ranges for many months. Even geopolitical risk, when […]

EURJPY and GBPJPY both faces major support following selloff

The GBPJPY and EURJPY pair tend to have somewhat mixed fortunes with their correlation over the years. However, there are certain times when you can see a convergence of notable support levels across the two. With both these major levels coming into play, I think we could see a reaction in both pairs very soon. […]

British Pound Out of Room and Facing Trial by Event Risk

Talking Points: Dollar Performance Not as Robust as EURUSD Insinuates Euro Tumbles As European Equities Rally British PoundOut of Room and Facing Trial by Event Risk Dollar Performance Not as Robust as EURUSD Insinuates The world’s most liquid currency cross EURUSD made a significant break this past session. Breaking through the 1.3500-floor that kept the […]

Chart Of The Day For July 23rd, 2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644 Support: 1.3454, 1.3396, 1.3324 Resistance:1.3502-12, 1.3583, 1.3629 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after prices put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern. A daily close below support at 1.3454, the 50% Fibonacci expansion, clears the way for a decline to the 61.8% level at 1.3396. Alternatively, reversal back above the 1.3502-12 […]

EUR Bears Need to Feed Their Appetite

At the best of times, investors have difficulties handling risk and the current trading environment is no different. It seems that the idea of trading risk is not easily transferable among the asset classes. The slight rise in risk appetite in equities is failing to make its way directly into the foreign exchange market. U.S. […]

Chart Of The Day For July 22nd, 2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.3644 Support: 1.3502-12, 1.3454, 1.3396 Resistance:1.3583, 1.3613, 1.3650 The Euro fell as expected after prices produced a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, sinking to the lowest level in a monthagainst US Dollar. Sellers are testing support in the 1.3502-12 area (38.2% Fibonacci expansion, June 5 low). A daily close below this boundary initially exposes 1.3454 […]

Event Risk Trumps Forex Fundamentals

The euro gained on the U.S. dollar and the yen held steady in a thinned-holiday Asian trading session overnight. But as tensions rise between Russia and the West, and the violence in the Gaza Strip becomes increasingly bloody, geopolitical events remain the focal point for investors and all asset classes. The corporate earnings season is […]

EUR/USD Breakdown, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD Breakouts Eyed this Week

Talking Points: EURUSD below July 2012-July 2013 TL, needs below 1.3475. GBPCAD and USDCAD still both point to breakouts higher. Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD. It’s admittedly another quiet start to the trading week, with fewer than ten economic data releases (including central banker speeches) on the calendar for […]

Top Trade Idea For July 21st, 2014 – EUR/CAD

Since mid-March, the euro has lost about 7% of its value against the Canadian dollar. This trend seems likely to continue but has paused around the 1.4441 level. While it seems poised to move higher in a countertrend move possibly towards the 1.50 level, we recognize the price action of the countertrend and see a […]

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