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Chart Of The Day For October 1st,2014-EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644 Support: 1.2602, 1.2532, 1.2445 Resistance:1.2673, 1.2760, 1.2796 Euro selling pressure swiftly returned after a brief respite, with prices sliding to the lowest level in over two years. A daily close below the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 1.2602 exposes the 61.8% level at 1.2532. Alternatively, a move above the 1.2659-73 area marked […]

EUR Loses Foothold on the Cross

The 18-member single unit has managed to fall to a fresh two-year low outright this morning, briefly penetrating the psychological €1.26 handle (€1.2595), just as capital markets bid farewell to another volatile September and third quarter. Meanwhile, European equities are edging higher, trying to reverse yesterday’s decline ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next […]

Euro May Be More Responsive to Positive vs. Negative Inflation Data

Talking Points: Euro to be More Sensitive to Positive vs. Negative Eurozone CPI Outcome Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise Alongside S&P 500 Futures as Risk Aversion Fades See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The preliminary set of September’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark […]

Chart Of The Day For September 30th,2014-EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644 Support: 1.2659, 1.2602, 1.2532 Resistance:1.2760, 1.2813, 1.2900 The Euro marked time to digest losses after four consecutive days of selling against the US Dollar. Near-term support is in the 1.2659-73 area, marked by the November 2012 low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that on a daily closing basis exposes the […]

Forex Carry Trades Are in Trouble

Volatility is the forex investor’s greatest ally. In the month of September, there has been no let up from this key variable that had been missing during the Group of Eight central bank lower-for-longer interest rate stretch of the past two years. Volatility provides investors opportunity, something that has been in abundance for a number […]

Chart Of The Day For September 29th,2014-EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644 Support: 1.2659, 1.2602, 1.2532 Resistance:1.2760, 1.2813, 1.2900 The Euro continues to face heavy selling pressure, with prices now approaching the weakest levels in close to two years against the US Dollar. A daily close below the 1.2659-73 area marked by the November 2012 low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion exposes the 50% level […]

Week in FX Europe – EUR Run Ragged after Consolidation

U.S. dollar adjusts to mid-2015 rate hike ECB could use additional unconventional measures With QE on the table the EUR could hit €1.20 in six months Diverging monetary policies have fueled the U.S. dollar’s strength this summer, more so against the EUR than any of the other Group of Seven (G-7) currencies. On Thursday, the […]

Dollar Rising Too High for Fed’s Liking?

Talking Points: Dollar Rising Too High for Fed’s Liking? Euro Discounts Draghi Talk, Bigger Concerns Looming New Zealand Dollar Suffers Biggest Drop in 15 Months Dollar Rising Too High for Fed’s Liking? Earlier this week, New York Fed President William Dudley remarked that the US Dollar’s rapid rise could hinder growth and undermine the central […]

Chart Of The Day For September 26th,2014-EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644 Support: 1.2754, 1.2673, 1.2602 Resistance:1.2813, 1.2900, 1.2994 The Euro raced downward to tag a 14-month low against the US Dollar, losing its foothold above the 1.28 figure. Near-term support is in the 1.2754-60 area marked by the July 2013 low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that on a daily closing […]

Dollar Slowly Suffocates the Euro

With a little help from central bank rhetoric, both volume and opportunity are making a significant comeback to the forex space. Up until now, the lower-for-longer monetary policy route basically handcuffed the Group of Seven currency pairs to a confined trading range over the past 18 months. Presently, with the possibility of a significant divergence […]

Dollar’s 11th Week Advance Looking Troubled as Fed Commentary Mixed

Talking Points: Dollar’s 11th Week Advance Looking Troubled as Fed Commentary Mixed Euro Tumbles after ECB President Draghi Reiterates Easing Commitment British Pound: Traders Await BoE Gov Carney’s First Post-Referendum Speech Dollar’s 11th Week Advance Looking Troubled as Fed Commentary Mixed Eleven straight weeks. That is the bullish run that the US Dollar is trying […]

Chart Of The Day For September 25th,2014-EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644 Support: 1.2754, 1.2673, 1.2602 Resistance:1.2813, 1.2900, 1.2994  The Euro raced downward to tag a 14-month low against the US Dollar, losing its foothold above the 1.28 figure. Near-term support is in the 1.2754-60 area marked by the July 2013 low and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. A break below that on a daily closing […]

EUR Strangled by Option Interest

Since the Scottish sovereignty referendum, it has been difficult to get overly excited about forex, especially with the EUR’s price action confined to a relatively tight trading range. The single unit’s recent moves have been telegraphed, influenced mostly by option-related deals and a few uninspiring purchasing managers’ indexes. European bourses seem to be taking a […]

Silver Breakdown Hints at USD Turning Point; EUR/USD, USD/CAD Not Done

Talking Points: Silver/XAGUSD fall through support signals turning point. EURUSD may push lower again; USDCAD eyes inv H&S. Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the US Dollar, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a USD currency basket. During August and early-September, the rise of US Treasury yields neatly coincided with an already-bullish […]

Chart Of The Day For September 24th,2014-EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644 Support: 1.2783, 1.2718, 1.2653 Resistance:1.2864, 1.2913, 1.2994 The Euro looks vulnerable to continued selling against the US Dollar, with prices poised to test below the 1.28 figure. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1.2783 exposes the 50% level at 1.2718. Alternatively, reversal above the 23.6% Fib at 1.2864 opens the door […]

ECB Headache Now a Migraine after PMIs

Risk trading strategies found temporary relief overnight before the European session opened from the world’s second-largest economy. Better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data has reversed some of yesterday’s market negativity that followed the weekend comments made by China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei who said his country would not amend its economic policies, despite the emergence of soft […]

Euro May Overlook Geman IFO Survey Absent an Upside Surprise

Talking Points: Euro May Look Past German IFO Data Absent Significant Upside Surprise NZ Dollar Corrects Higher, Yen Gains as Asian Stocks Follow Wall St Lower See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for a […]

Look to sell EUR/GBP at (or above) 0.7880

Late last week, we saw a 200 pip fall in EUR/GBP with the low almost reaching 0.78. While price has since pulled back towards 0.79, we expect the 0.78 level to be retested and surpassed later this week. Therefore, we’re looking to trade it. While sterling pairs aren’t our preferred instruments, it’s a light week […]

Chart Of The Day For September 23th,2014-EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at1.3644 Support: 1.2783, 1.2718, 1.2653 Resistance:1.2864, 1.2913, 1.2994 The Euro slid to the lowest level in nearly 15 months against the US Dollar, with sellers now aiming below the 1.28 figure. Near-term support is at 1.2783, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break beneath that on a daily closing basis exposing the 50% level […]

Chinese Worries Deflate Markets

Concerns regarding Chinese growth are looking likely to dominate capital markets this week, especially now that the Scottish issue appears to be on hiatus for the immediate future. Already, both global equities and commodities have been put on the back foot as China’s finance minister sees limited policy response to his country’s current slowdown. The […]

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