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Next Leg Lower in EUR-crosses in Focus after Weaker CPI

Talking Points: EURUSD breaks below key $1.0800 support, now eyes $1.0612. EURGBP, EURJPY lose respective uptrends from March lows. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. Short-term technicals are realigning with longer-term bearish inclinations across the EUR-complex. EURUSD’s H4 MACD and Stochastic bearish crossovers have appeared alongside price losing its uptrend […]

Chart Of The Day For March 31th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0806, 1.0456, 1.0244 Resistance:1.1051, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro is digesting gains after rallying as expected against the US Dollar following the appearance of a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the march 26 high at 1.1051 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at […]

Record EUR Shorts Looking to IMF for Clues

Beware of short trading week moves BoE on two-month hiatus Look to U.S. jobs for rate clue Beware of weather-related anomalies in NFP With Good Friday making it a holiday-shortened trading week for most currency traders, many would likely prefer to escape this month unscathed to begin the second quarter next week. However, with U.S. […]

Euro to Look Past German CPI, Focus on Greece Funding Woes

Talking Points: Euro to Look Beyond German CPI, Focus on Greece Developments Aussie, NZ Dollars Drop Amid Commodities-Driven Risk Aversion Access Real-Time FX Markets Analysis with DailyFX on Demand The preliminary set of March’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 […]

Chart Of The Day For March 30th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0832, 1.0456, 1.0244 Resistance:1.1051, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro rose as expected against US Dollar after producing a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.1051, the March 26 high, with a break above that on a daily closing basis exposing the 38.2% Fibonacci […]

EUR/USD – Euro Slips from Lofty Heights

Street waits for Yellen this afternoon Middle East Tensions subside Forex liquidity remains at a premium Market trying to avoid lopsided trades over Q1 end U.S. dollar buyers are back with a vengeance as the street waits to close out the week once U.S gross domestic product data has been released this morning, and more […]

Is the USDOLLAR Establishing a Bottom?

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index holds daily 34-EMA as support. EURUSD main driver behind broader USDOLLAR rebound. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. The rapid build in short positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting brought the market back in line with the extreme positioning seen in early-February (196.3K net-short contracts for […]

Chart Of The Day For March 27th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0857, 1.0456, 1.0244 Resistance:1.1051, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro rallied against the US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the march 26 high at 1.1051 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1263. Alternatively, a move below […]

Post-FOMC Levels Holding USD for Now; JPY-crosses Begin Breakdown

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index struggling at post-FOMC low, daily 34-EMA. USDJPY wipes out below 119.25, contrary to March seasonality. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. The Japanese Yen is defying its seasonal tendancies right now, which could set up an interesting month of April. Typically, at least over the past […]

Chart Of The Day For March 26th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0955, 1.0456, 1.0233 Resistance:1.1263, 1.1513, 1.1762 The Euro rose as expected against US Dollar, with prices now poised to make a move above the 1.12 figure. Near-term resistance is at 1.1263, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis […]

EURO Marches Higher

EUR bulls need a €1.1000 close for confidence S. inflation remains benign German growth solid in Q1 on QE Hungary’s central bank surprises The euro is inching higher on Wednesday versus the U.S. dollar. Given the forex market’s current run of unpredictable moves, only time will tell if the single unit is capable of taking […]

Dollar Staves Off Another Reversal Risk

Talking Points: Dollar Staves Off Another Reversal Risk Euro Focus Turning from QE Back to Greece British Pound Stumbles After Inflation Stalls for the First Time Dollar Staves Off Another Reversal Risk The Dollar took another stab at turning its eight-month bull trend this past session. However, this time around, there wasn’t a FOMC rate […]

Chart Of The Day For March 25th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0456, 1.0233, 0.9984 Resistance:1.0955, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro rallied against the US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the intersection of a falling trend line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0955 exposes the 38.2% […]

Dollar Bulls Squeezed by European Data

Fed’s normalization data dependent Dollar longs feel the squeeze Eurozone PMIs continue slow recovery EUR bulls break €1.1000 look for €1.1200 The dollar bull has been suffering greatly since last week’s dovish Federal Open Market Committee meet. The market’s conviction that the USD can rally from here has certainly taken a pounding, but they have […]

US Dollar, Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Dents Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: US Dollar, British Pound May Fall as Soft CPI Figures Dent Rate Hike Bets Limited ECB Policy Impact to Contain Euro Follow-Through on PMI Data See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App February’s UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation […]

Chart Of The Day For March 24th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0456, 1.0233, 0.9984 Resistance:1.0955, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro moved higher against the US Dollar as expected after prices produced a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.0955, the intersection of a falling trend line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Takes Flight Despite Weaker Crude

Canada Retail Sales a bust in January Oil prices not helping the loonie bear BoC’s Poloz credibility on the line later in the week OIS pricing in another BoC cut in the coming months The Canadian dollar is starting off the week on the front foot (CAD$1.2507) and this despite crude prices trading a tad […]

Corrective Bias Takes Shape Across USD-Spectrum

Talking Points: EURUSD poised for test of key 1.0905 level. GBPUSD must clear and hold 1.4995 before further gains possible. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. The start of the week has brought about more pressure on the US Dollar across the board, with traders continuing to close out long-held […]

Chart Of The Day For March 23th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0456, 1.0233, 0.9984 Resistance:1.0955, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro rallied against the US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the intersection of a falling trend line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0955 exposes the 38.2% […]

Week in FX: A Wild Ride for Forex Traders

Dollar bulls require patience Norges Bank disappoints but looking to cut No clarity on currency intervention from SNB Greece remains in the frame Many are hoping that it will be a calm close to a mad week that happened to see the Federal Reserve temper enthusiasm for U.S. growth with imminent policy changes. A few […]

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