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Event Risk Looking to Support the Dollar This Week

Holiday week encourages thin markets Friday’s NFP to dominate this week’s activity Market looking for further stimulus from China Euro manufacturing PMIs showing signs of inflation Holiday thinned markets (Japan’s Golden week holiday Monday through Wednesday, and the U.K.’s May Day celebrations) are keeping FX action relatively tight ahead of the open stateside this morning. […]

May Day Cannot Stop EUR Rally

EUR prints a two-month high German bund yield correction continues S. ISM manufacturing PMI could cause problems in thin conditions K. manufacturing PMI hurts the pound’s expectations This time last year the euro nearly dropped through its one-month low of €1.3800. A year on, the single unit is again making some significant strides, albeit from […]

British Pound May Rise as PMI Data Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound May Rise as PMI Report Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Speculation NZ Dollar Sank Overnight as FinMin English Reinforced RBNZ Easing Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The UK Manufacturing PMI report headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Factory-sector activity growth is expected […]

Top trade idea for April 30st, 2015 – GBPCAD

The gbpcad cross is forming a running triangle that is not completed yet. What is to mention here is the word “running”, which in this case means that the triangle needs to end above the highs in the previous x wave in red. This in turn means that the d wave is not done yet […]

Euro Bears on Edge as Grexit Threat Subsides, FOMC in Focus

Greek debt relief not a solution EUR bears feeling the squeeze at elevated levels RBA’s Stevens may have tipped his hand on rates BoE going lower for longer after disappointing GDP Yesterday, the Greek bond market managed to make an aggressive about-turn after news that a Greek government reshuffle diminished the role of Finance Minister […]

Dollar Tumbles…Before the Fed and GDP

Talking Points: Dollar Tumbles…Before the Fed and GDP Euro Shows Increasingly Little Concern Over Greek Risks New Zealand Dollar Faces its Own High-Profile Rate Decision Dollar Tumbles…Before the Fed and GDP It isn’t unusual to see key technical levels and patterns develop in the lead up to critical event risk. Speculative positioning reflecting indecision and […]

Greece: No News is Not Good News

ECB’s QE providing Greek buffer Central banks to dominate this week’s proceedings FOMC is the main event Forex unfazed with U.K. elections No significant news hit the markets regarding Greece over the weekend. Capital markets continue to witness the dealings of Greece acting like a petulant child being scolded by its guardian. The more the […]

More USD Downside Due in Days Ahead?

Talking Points: Market keeps an eye turned towards Q1 US GDP, FOMC USDCAD has yet to achieve downside double top target. See the April forex seasonality report. While there’s a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar, fundamental headlines should make waves over the next few days with the Q1’15 UK GDP report […]

Top Trade Idea for April 27th, 2015 – GBP/JPY

(Global FX Club) The GBP/JPY remains in focus to start off this week as the pair slithers its way into a tight congested zone, with resistance located at the 181.00 – 181.90 area, and trend line support around 179.80.  Indeed, last week we called for higher levels in the pair, with a turnaround to follow […]

Top Trade Idea for April 24th, 2015 – EUR/GBP

The Euro recently dropped out of a double top pattern against the Pound. Since moving below the double top support (“B”) , it has fallen by an amount almost exactly equivalent to 61.8% of the pattern height. 61.8% is the Fibonacci ratio and it’s quite common for price to stop at this point after completing […]

Pound May Prove More Responsive Than Euro to Eurozone PMI Data

Talking Points: Eurozone PMIs May Prove More Market-Moving for the Pound vs. the Euro NZ Dollar Slumps as RBNZ’s McDermott Talks Down Rate Hike Possibilities Franc Corrects Higher After Yesterday’s Aggressive SNB-Inspired Decline The preliminary set of April’s Eurozone PMI figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite index is expected […]

BoE: A Coin Toss on Direction of Next Rate Move

The Bank of England went into self-imposed purdah when the election was called in late March, so the release of the minutes of the April meeting of the monetary policy committee provides the first hint of current thinking inside Threadneedle Street for some weeks. The message from the minutes is modestly hawkish. Sure, the vote […]

British Pound May Rise as BOE Meeting Minutes Reboot Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound May Rise as BOE April Meeting Minutes Reboot Rate Hike Bets Aussie Dollar Gains as Core CPI Unexpectedly Rises, Firming RBA Outlook See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The release of minutes from April’s Bank of England policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European […]

EUR-crosses Begin to Lose Traction at Start of Week

Talking Points: EURUSD‘s only bullish appeal rooted in stretched positioning. EURGBP, EURJPY technical structures remain fairly weak. See the April forex seasonality report. The Euro has once again started to slip back thanks to its deflating yield appeal and advancement along the path of a funding currency. As the differential between the short-end and the […]

Top trade idea for April 16th, 2015 – GBPCAD

What I am targeting here is nothing but a rising wedge for the gbpcad cross as the 2-4 trend line of the bigger degree impulsive move has been broken yesterday. Actually it is quite interesting as the spike higher yesterday has been sold aggressively on Bank of Canada being quite pleased with the way the […]

Dollar Skittish Below 12 Year High Risk, Monetary Policy Themes Heat Up

Talking Points: Dollar Skittish Below 12 Year High Risk, Monetary Policy Themes Heat Up Euro: What Should we Expect from the ECB, Greece Today? Australian Dollar Holds Precarious Floor after Chinese GDP Hits 6-Year Low Dollar Skittish Below 12 Year High Risk, Monetary Policy Themes Heat Up With the USDollar testing the 12-year highs established […]

Will U.S Retail Sales Test New EUR Lows?

Yen looking for cross currency support K. narrowly avoids deflation S. retail sales to test EUR 12-year lows German bunds trade sub-0.14% There comes a time when trading in stretched forex markets, you do need to be patient when trying to pick a winning trade. When bored, most investors tend to disregard both fundamental and […]

USD Breakout Contingent on Retail Sales, Tone at ECB Meeting

Talking Points: EURGBP double top in question; GBPAUD holds in triangle. EURUSD breakdown obstacles include US retail sales, ECB.- See the April forex seasonality report. The GBP-crosses have yet to offer clear direction, while several USD-pairs need today’s spending data to confirm their recent breakouts. See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, […]

Pound, Dollar to Rise if UK CPI and US Sales Data Boost Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound May Rise if Upbeat Core CPI Figures Boost BOE Rate Outlook US Dollar to Extend Advance if Retail Sales Data Drives Fed Rate Hike Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year […]

Top Trade Idea For April 13th, 2015 – GBP/NZD

GBP/NZD is our preferred trade setup as we start off trading this week, with the pair testing resistance as of late. Indeed, our preferred bias is for a 4 hour break and close above this topside ceiling, which in our opinion will lead to higher levels towards 2.0020 – 2.0420 so long as pivot support […]

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