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D-Day For The FED: Now What?

Five things the markets are talking about. The Fed’s two-day conclave ends today with investors eagerly awaiting this afternoon’s statement (no press conference) for any sign of changes in the FOMC’s thinking on rates. Given that Fed officials have shown sensitivity to financial conditions, and that riskier assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds have […]

Pound Squeeze Continues

Five things the markets are talking about. It tough to get excited about these markets ahead of the FOMC (Wednesday) and BoJ rate (Thursday) announcements this week. Investors prefer to remain non-committed ahead of the meetings, choosing instead to wade to the sidelines and wait for a stronger market signal. The Federal Open Market Committee […]

Top trade idea for April 22nd, 2016 – GBP/AUD

This has been a big downtrend. The Pound has been hit by the Brexit vote while the Aussie Dollar has ridden the wave of an unexpected resurgence in commodity prices. Chief among these has been Australia’s main export, iron ore. Despite a bearish consensus outlook, the spot iron ore price is up 84% from its […]

EUR’s Calm Before The Storm?

Five things the markets are talking about. For the investor, it seems that risk sentiment is to prevail until told otherwise. Capital Markets continue to take its cue from a clear sign of stabilization in the commodity space, while also responding positively to the early reports of the ‘earnings season.’ Both Brent and WTI crude […]

Top trade idea for April 21st, 2016 – GBPCAD

The GBPCAD chart above is actually coming from the weekly time frame but I zoomed out on the daily to see the details much better. We have an impulsive move to the upside, or a five wave structure that seems to be ended with a failure. In reality, it is not possible to be a […]

FX5: China Sees Red, UK Jobs Disappoint

Five things the markets are talking about Are things beginning to cool down stateside? Yesterday’s data showed that U.S housing starts fell more than expected in March (-8.8% to their lowest level since last October) and permits for future construction hit a one-year low (-7.7%). Nevertheless, the disappointing data could not dent regional bourses rise, […]

Top trade idea for April 20th, 2016 – EUR/GBP

The outcome of the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision is due on Thursday. Having just expanded QE at the last meeting in March, the ECB is unlikely to alter its policy further at this meeting. Investors will therefore focus on Mario Draghi’s comments, in particular for any hints on cutting the deposit rate further […]

FX5: Investor Risk Appetite On The Rise

Five things the markets are talking about Are investors back to trading risk? U.S markets started this week under modest pressure after oil producers failed to reach a deal on an output freeze in Doha over the weekend. Naturally, the energy complex started the week gapping lower, along with the commodity sensitive bloc of currencies. […]

Top trade idea for April 15th, 2016 – GBP/USD

Spurning Sterling The chances of a Brexit appear low, at least judging by the more reliable phone polling as opposed to the self-selected internet polls. However, the uncertainty in the lead of to the June 23 referendum in Great Britain could weigh on the pound – and a fall from current levels would breach important […]

U.K. Inflation Rate Hits 15-Month High

U.K. inflation accelerated to a 15-month high in March as an early Easter boosted air fares and clothing prices increased. Consumer prices rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace since December 2014, the Office for National Statistics in London said on Tuesday. That exceeded the 0.4 percent median estimate in a Bloomberg […]

Top trade idea for April 8th, 2016 – GBP/USD

The Pound is a chance of completing a “Gartley” buy set up from here. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement intersects around 1.398 while the move down to this level has been in 3 swings (2 in the direction of the retracement with a correction in between). The harmonic level where the AB swing is the same […]

Canada: GDP By Industry January 2016

Real gross domestic product rose 0.6% in January, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing, retail trade, and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction were major contributors to growth in January. The output of goods-producing industries grew 1.2% in January, mainly as a result of increases in manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas […]

Top trade idea for March 31st, 2015 – GBPUSD

This GBPUSD look bearish from my point of view even though the triangle you can see forming on this daily chart can be a bullish one. But I doubt that. The thing is that the whole move from the upside is nothing but a corrective wave, namely part of a double combination that started when […]

FX5: Dollar’s Worst Month In Five

Five things the markets are talking about Prior to Ms. Yellen’s Economic club speech in New York yesterday, the markets were experiencing low volatility, a new market norm since Central Bank guidance came back on line in early March and little to no transactional volume being executed. Within in a matter of moments the Fed […]

GBPUSD – Cable Facing Test of Prior Key Support

A combination of sterling weakness and dollar strength over the last few days has driven cable back towards 1.41 at a time when it was showing signs of finally gathering some upward momentum. The pair now faces a test of its renewed weakness, with 1.4050-1.41 representing a region that it has so far this year […]

FX5: Dollar Remains King

Five-things that the markets are talking about The recent rally in equities is beginning to show some renewed signs of pressure. Investors should expect the few fresh catalysts to steer market direction for the remainder of this quiet holiday-shortened trading week – note, trading volumes on Wall Street yesterday were relatively low. The safer-haven USD […]

FX5: Risk Aversion Dominates Euro Session

Five-things the markets are talking about The equity market’s big swings have greatly subsided, leaving many wondering – what is next? Major indexes drifted higher yesterday in a quiet trading session, as investors seemed to shy away from making any ‘big’ bets at the start of this holiday-shortened trading week. With earning’s season virtually complete […]

Top trade idea for March 22nd, 2016 – GBP/USD

GBPUSD has turned up in the last few weeks with very sharp price action  which we see it as wave IV within big impulsive dowtrend. Fourth waves will typically retrace back to the area of a former wave four, and also for around 38.2% compared to wave three. Well, we can see this around that […]

Bank of England Maintains Bank Rate at 0.5%

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 16 March 2016, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%. The Committee also voted unanimously to maintain the stock […]

FX5: Fed Loses Some Street Cred, Dollar Crashes

Five things the markets are talking about This month was always going to be about the “battle of the Central Banks.” Two-weeks in and they have not disappointed. Some are aggressive, some passive, but they are all in agreement on one thing, they consistently express a cautious tone on the global economy. Yesterday’s FOMC announcement […]

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