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US Dollar Gets the Green Light from Fixed Income

Thin trading conditions dominate Greece: No “moola” for the IMF Rising prices makes Fed hike timing difficult Fixed income looks to September for first hike Over the past few weeks dollar bulls have been trading with their backs against the wall, pressured by the spike in global sovereign bond yields, and the unknown timing of […]

Dollar Deflated by Fed Expectations and Eurozone Data

Fed: more talk and more data No June rate hike has the dollar under pressure European PMIs mixed, fragile recovery expected K. retail sales supports sterling There was nothing groundbreaking revealed yesterday in the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Market price action would suggest that it was an uninspired event ticking off most […]

Fed Minutes Eyed, Rate Hike Chatter Ensues

Rate divergence trade trends again ECB in direct conflict to “trade of a lifetime” FOMC minutes to provide direction for dollar supporters BoE not worried about deflation The rule of thumb is that central banks prefer not to be seen as interfering with markets unless they are out of sync with fundamentals or preventing policies […]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD into Trend Support with FOMC Minutes Due

Talking Points: EURUSD snaps uptrend, heads to former resistance near $1.1050. GBPUSD holding April 13 uptrend after BoE minutes earlier. See the May forex seasonality report. The US Dollar is attempting at carving out a bottom after a five-week downtrend, but it faces a very legitimate test today when the April FOMC minutes are released. […]

EUR Bears Put the Boot In

ECB members deliver single currency a massive blow Bund curve flattens on front-loaded comments EUR breaks through psychological €1.1200 handle BoE’s Carney not worried about deflation Last month’s Bund rout that caused yields to spike and Treasury-Bund spreads to tighten supported the EUR. Any comments that would flatten the Bund yield curve would have an […]

British Pound May Weaken on Soft UK Inflation Data

Talking Points: Pound May Decline as Soft UK CPI Data Cools BOE Rate Hike Speculation NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Inflation Survey Undercuts Interest Rate Cut Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App April’s UK CPI data is in focus in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate […]

EURGBP – Double Bottom Brings More Consolidation

Sterling has dominated the euro for most of the last two years and that accelerated between January and March this year, after which we started to see some consolidation. The question that arose following this is whether the consolidation is a bottoming out in the pair or just a breather before the next leg lower, […]

These Conditions Need to be Met Before USDOLLAR Bottoms

Talking Points: EURUSD, GBPUSD slide back from recent highs. USDOLLAR Index still in counter-trend, bearish condition. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite a rebound that’s materialized the past 24-hours, it’s still too early to call a bottom in the USDOLLAR Index. As EURUSD puts in a truncated top by failing to reach its channel […]

USDOLLAR Index Losses May Have Further to Run

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index achieves head & shoulders target of 11650/60. January swing low near 11587 now in focus. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite achieving its head & shoulders topping target, there is evidence the greenback may remain under pressure in the days ahead. The USDOLLAR Index has evolved into more of a […]

Pound May Rise as BOE Inflation Report Rekindles Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: Pound May Rise as Upbeat BOE Inflation Report Fuels Rate Hike Bets NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Warns on Loose Monetary Policy Dangers Euro Unlikely to Find Follow-Through in First-Quarter GDP Report The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade after the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report (FSR). The document identified […]

GBPUSD – Massive Resistance Lies Ahead

Sterling has been the strongest performing major currency over the last month but after a strong post-election rally, it may begin to be losing a little steam against the dollar. Cable is about to face a huge test of its longer term strength as it approaches a cluster of previous support and resistance levels and […]

German Bund Yields Squeeze EUR Short Positions

Eurogroup reports progress in bailout negotiations with Greece Market chasing EUR stops of recent spec bets Fed wants markets to adjust to rate uncertainty Sterling bears are whipped Yesterday, the EUR bear was on the cusp of recording a major win. The 19-member single currency stood on the verge of rolling deep into negativity territory, […]

Aussie Dollar Gains on Bets Budget to Reduce Scope for RBA Rate Cuts

Talking Points: Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise as Markets Await Australian Budget Announcement British Pound May Not See Follow-Through on Industrial Production Data US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak to Drive FOMC Interest Rate Hike Outlook The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move […]

USDOLLAR Triangle Lingers as EUR/USD Breaks its ST Uptrend

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index remains in symmetrical triangle post-NFPs. EURUSD and GBPUSD head in opposite directions. See the May forex seasonality report. The April US jobs report on Friday was a bit of a mixed report – good, not great, and certainly with some lacking areas – but it might just be good enough to […]

Wild Price Action Expected as Traders Eye U.S. Jobs Report

Yellen stock value comments see red Soft French 10-year auction supports higher yields ADP: A prelude to soft NFP Higher U.S. rates not supporting dollar< This week has certainly lived up to expectations. Market moves were always going to be big due to the amount of event risk that investors are being exposed to; however, […]

Outside Influences Weigh Heavily on FX Markets

Talking Points: EURUSD driven by ECB’s QE unwind, NFP speculation. GBPUSD in holding pattern as market awaits election results. See the May forex seasonality report. Although FX markets have been behaving in a fairly clear technical manner the past few days (as evidenced by the clean unfolding of the USDOLLAR Index head & shoulders pattern), […]

USDOLLAR Index Exhibiting Tendency of a Bearish Market

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index fails at neckline in head & shoulders pattern. EURUSD flagging, double bottom valid towards $1.1567. See the May forex seasonality report. The US Dollar may have enjoyed a modest rebound over the past week, but there’s sufficient evidence to deem that the greenback is engaged in a bearish market mindset in […]

Demand for US Dollar Tied to Yields and NFP

Dollar takes advantage of thin trade conditions S. yields back up to two-month highs Commodities currencies’ false-positive backed by PBoC RBA does what’s expected, concerned by AUD value The mighty dollar took advantage of thin holiday trading conditions yesterday and rallied against the single currency. That trend continues this morning with the selloff in U.S. […]

Putting USD Correction into Perspective Post-GDP, Pre-NFPs

Talking Points: EURUSD trades down to former resistance turned support, daily 8-EMA. USDJPY breakout gathers pace – easiest path forward for USD. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Tuesday, May 5, 2015. May seasonality calls for US Dollar gains, but Friday’s NFP release will be the ultimate determinant of the buck’s direction. The lingering net-long […]

Event Risk Looking to Support the Dollar This Week

Holiday week encourages thin markets Friday’s NFP to dominate this week’s activity Market looking for further stimulus from China Euro manufacturing PMIs showing signs of inflation Holiday thinned markets (Japan’s Golden week holiday Monday through Wednesday, and the U.K.’s May Day celebrations) are keeping FX action relatively tight ahead of the open stateside this morning. […]

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