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Fed Rhetoric On Markets Radar

Five things the markets are talking about To the neutral observer, it’s not a surprise to see the mighty dollar encountering some profit taking of its recent gains ahead of Fed chair Yellen’s speech tomorrow. The bulk of this week’s USD rise has come from consistent jawboning from the Fed’s team. Will Yellen be as […]

Dollar Moves Handcuffed To Fed Talk

Five things the markets are talking about With “hawkish” Fed rhetoric remaining equities biggest hurdle, coupled with ‘little’ new U.S economic data, the end of the North American earnings season, and significant event risk in the coming month has investor sentiment shifting cautiously in favor of “wait and see.” This approach continues to have a […]

Fed In “If” Mode

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday’s FOMC minutes indicate that the bank was in “if” mode, as in, if data supports a rate hike, U.S policy makers ‘could’ increase rates at the next meeting on June 14-15. Accompanying the “if” message were the usual disclaimers – the bank is of course concerned about […]

Top trade idea for May 19th, 2016 – GBPUSD

GBPUSD acting extremely bullish as the day the Fed released the minutes, namely yesterday, a poll in the UK showed that the sentiment is leaning toward a stay at the upcoming EU referendum. It was enough for the pound to squeeze all over the board and even the fact that the minutes were bearish was […]

Market, Not Fed, Caught Behind The Curve

Five things the markets are talking about. A week of consolidated trading is finally coming to an end. It has been difficult for speculators without much market guidance. This week in particular, trading sentiment has been ‘to-and-fro’ due to a lack of market conviction as to whether the sub-par global economic growth scenario is positive […]

Brexit, Brazil and BoJ Dominate Markets

Five things the markets are talking about Foreign exchange markets are expected to remain quiet until Friday when the U.S. is scheduled to release retail sales figures, key economic data that should trigger movement among the major currency pairs. However, sterling could be the exception, albeit for a brief period this morning, as today is […]

BOE Super Thursday to Focus on Brexit Scenarios

UK Central Bank Trying to Appear Unbiased to Avoid Influencing Outcome The Bank of England (BoE) has to appear unbiased on the very political topic of Britain exiting the European Union. The Leave campaign has on multiple occasions accused the central bank on taking a stance by calling the potential Brexit the “biggest domestic risk […]

Pound Slides On Disappointing U.K Industrial Output

The pound weakened for the first time in three days versus the euro as a report showed U.K. industrial production grew less in March than analysts forecast, adding to signs that Britain’s economy is suffering as it heads toward a referendum on its membership of the European Union. Sterling fell against most of its 16 […]

Dollar Bulls Need A Solid NFP

A strong U.S. jobs report today could set the tone for a dollar revival this month. Year to date, the buck’s overall weakness would suggest that many of the speculative “long” dollar positions, built mostly on rate differentials, are now much lighter. If so, this would indicate that market condition are favourable for a data-led […]

Top trade idea for May 6th, 2016 – EUR/GBP

The Euro has lost upward momentum against the Pound in recent weeks. This is creating what’s shaping up to be a classic distribution style pattern at the top of a strong uptrend. The slow stochastic in the box below the weekly chart is now trending down strongly out of the overbought zone. This confirms the […]

FX5: Dollars Demise Dismissed For Now

Five things the markets are talking about. Trading yesterday was not for the faint of heart. Global markets were shaken by continued weak growth readings in China and Europe coupled with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprise decision to lower rates. The various asset price moves were complemented by a significant reversal to the […]

Dollar’s Demise Highlighted By Pound’s Move

Five things the markets are talking about It was an eerily quite North American trading session yesterday, influenced by a number of the major trading centers engaged in holiday activities. In North America, market volumes were reported on the light side, and this despite U.S. factory activity slipping in April. The same cannot be said […]

It’s Oil That’s Driving This Loonie Rally

It’s giddy times in Canada, with newly installed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau winning rave reviews at home and abroad, the nation’s economy generating some of the best positive surprises in the world and the domestic stock market soaring again. And yet all foreign-exchange traders seem to want to know is what’s the latest price for […]

D-Day For The FED: Now What?

Five things the markets are talking about. The Fed’s two-day conclave ends today with investors eagerly awaiting this afternoon’s statement (no press conference) for any sign of changes in the FOMC’s thinking on rates. Given that Fed officials have shown sensitivity to financial conditions, and that riskier assets such as stocks and high-yield bonds have […]

Pound Squeeze Continues

Five things the markets are talking about. It tough to get excited about these markets ahead of the FOMC (Wednesday) and BoJ rate (Thursday) announcements this week. Investors prefer to remain non-committed ahead of the meetings, choosing instead to wade to the sidelines and wait for a stronger market signal. The Federal Open Market Committee […]

Top trade idea for April 22nd, 2016 – GBP/AUD

This has been a big downtrend. The Pound has been hit by the Brexit vote while the Aussie Dollar has ridden the wave of an unexpected resurgence in commodity prices. Chief among these has been Australia’s main export, iron ore. Despite a bearish consensus outlook, the spot iron ore price is up 84% from its […]

EUR’s Calm Before The Storm?

Five things the markets are talking about. For the investor, it seems that risk sentiment is to prevail until told otherwise. Capital Markets continue to take its cue from a clear sign of stabilization in the commodity space, while also responding positively to the early reports of the ‘earnings season.’ Both Brent and WTI crude […]

Top trade idea for April 21st, 2016 – GBPCAD

The GBPCAD chart above is actually coming from the weekly time frame but I zoomed out on the daily to see the details much better. We have an impulsive move to the upside, or a five wave structure that seems to be ended with a failure. In reality, it is not possible to be a […]

FX5: China Sees Red, UK Jobs Disappoint

Five things the markets are talking about Are things beginning to cool down stateside? Yesterday’s data showed that U.S housing starts fell more than expected in March (-8.8% to their lowest level since last October) and permits for future construction hit a one-year low (-7.7%). Nevertheless, the disappointing data could not dent regional bourses rise, […]

Top trade idea for April 20th, 2016 – EUR/GBP

The outcome of the European Central Bank’s latest policy decision is due on Thursday. Having just expanded QE at the last meeting in March, the ECB is unlikely to alter its policy further at this meeting. Investors will therefore focus on Mario Draghi’s comments, in particular for any hints on cutting the deposit rate further […]

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