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NZD: Kiwi’s Wings Get Clipped

The New Zealand Dollar has had a difficult end to the week. Being heavily sold against most of its major counterparts. However, the longer term charts and underlying macro situation mean the picture is not as clear-cut as it seems. New Zealand has been somewhat of a darling recently. A purring economy, an excellent rugby […]

BoE: UK faces ‘Challenging Period’ For Financial Stability

Britain still faces a “challenging period” for financial stability despite resilience seen after the European Union referendum, and rules for banks must remain stay tight, the Bank of England said on Thursday. Britain’s government is keen to ensure London retains its place as Europe’s leading financial center even after the country leaves the EU, but […]

Top trade idea for September 22nd, 2016 – GBPUSD

It has been a while since we didn’t cover the GBPUSD pair here and there was a solid reason for it: the UK referendum. Before the vote, it was too risky to trade the pair, after the vote, needed some time to see how the pair settles. Having said that, and despite recent Fed decision […]

Pound Woes Continue, Focus on Fed and BoJ

Five things the markets are talking about Tomorrow’s double-header with the Fed concluding its meeting and the BoJ announcing something has potential to rock markets, especially FX which is still playing catch up with both bonds and equity price moves for this month. In regards to sovereign yield curves, Fed expectations are controlling the front-end, […]

Central Banks Are Coming For FX

Five things the markets are talking about Central banks have certainly woken up the stock and bond markets from their summer slumber, but not yet the FX markets. This week’s events should go along way to rectify that imbalance. With the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan rate decisions set to dominate this week, expect […]

Week Ahead USD Rises After US Inflation Boost

US inflation continues to move toward the Federal Reserve’s goal The USD rose across the board on Friday, September 16 after August’s consumer prices advanced 0.2 percent beating expectations. The core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.3 percent ahead of a 0.2 percent forecast. The USD had taken a hit on Thursday after retail sales […]

Dollar Needs Fed and BoJ Guidance

Five things the markets are talking about U.S retail sales and industrial production data yesterday supports the case that the Fed is not going to tighten next week, with many remaining sceptical whether the Fed could pull the trigger at all this year. According to fed fund futures it’s a coin toss for the December […]

BoE Minutes Could Hold Key Policy Clues

The Bank of England meets on Thursday, a meeting that has come back to the forefront of investors’ attention over the last few months following the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. Prior to this, the Bank of England had held interest rates at 0.5% for seven and a half years and there had […]

Canadian Jobs to Hog the Limelight

Five things the markets are talking about Policy inertia by Tier 1 central banks so far this month is contributing to a lack of meaningful price movement amongst the various asset classes. Yesterday, the ECB came and went, insisting that the market move on as Draghi failed to provide any new tweaks to their stimulus […]

Top trade idea for September 9th, 2016 – GBP/USD

After plummeting to a post Brexit low around 1.28 in early July, the Pound has bounced around in what looking more and more like a large, triangle is shaped trading range. This week’s high at 1.3445 looks like it might have been the second peak in this triangle pattern. The clue to this possibility is […]

ECB: Draghi to Disappoint

Five things the markets are talking about Today is D-day for the European Central Bank (ECB). Market consensus does not expect euro policy makers to deliver a new round of stimulus this morning. Nevertheless, officials are expected to release a new raft of economic forecasts, which should help provide the market with further clues on […]

NZD: The Kiwi gets ready to Fly!

A number of formations on the longer term charts are pointing to a higher NZD as the USD melts away post a very poor ISM last night. For those of you who don’t know, the Kiwi is the national bird of New Zealand. It is a flightless bird, and it is also the nickname for […]

Is the Fed a ‘No Go’ after Service Activity drop?

Five things the markets are talking about Have investors got the proof that the Fed normalization policy remains on hold for this month’s meeting? Last Friday’s soft non-farm payrolls report had already dented the ‘hawks’ case for a September Fed hike, but yesterday’s six-year low print in U.S Services ISM may have delivered the decisive […]

Markets Prepare For September Volatility

Five things the markets are talking about The holiday long weekend is over, schools reopen for the new year, and here’s hoping that today we can “unofficially” bid goodbye to one of the quietist summer trading sessions in living memory. Now that NFP is out of the way, it’s up to the “big four” central […]

Asia Trading Post G-20. Central Banks Cross Their Fingers

With the USA and Canada on holiday today, trading in Asia has been subdued as we await Europe and continue to digest Fridays disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls number. The weekend’s G-20 produced a few nice dinners I am sure and more than its usual quota of vacuous statements on world trade, working together, stability and the […]

September: Some Important Dates for Capital Markets

Despite today’s NFP print potentially having a massive impact on a possible Fed hike in a few weeks, it will collectively be the “big four” central banks (Fed, ECB, BoJ and BoE), a G20 meet up, and an OPEC get together over the coming days that’s expected to be driving capital markets this month. Here […]

Top Trade Idea For September 2nd, 2016 EUR/GBP

Reversing Brexit Sentiment The conventional wisdom when the British voted to leave the European Union was that the UK economy would suffer much more than the continent. Naturally, this saw the EUR make strong gains against GBP. Despite a lack of clarity around the exit mechanism, EUR/GBP is showing signs that those initial fears could […]

The Day of Reckoning

The key European and US equity benchmarks have closed flat overnight as Traders take to the sidelines ahead of tonight’s Non-Farm Payroll. The DAX had traded up 1% in early European time, spurred on by a much better-than-expected China manufacturing PMI report and the tail wind from the active UK PMI, only to reverse gains on a […]

Expect Whiplash Price Action Ahead of NFP

Five things the markets are talking about Data yesterday saw the U.S economy add other +177k private sector jobs last month, proof that job creation remains strong, with most industries and companies of all sizes adding solidly to their payrolls. What does it means for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report and the Fed’s September meeting? The […]

Long Yen Trade a Problem

Five things the markets are talking about Two days after a ‘hawkish’ Fed in Jackson Hole, the U.S yield curve continues to flatten as the Feds favourite inflation measure stays below U.S policy makers +2% inflation target. Data Monday showed that July’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed no growth in annualized inflation. The core-rate remains […]

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