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Long Yen Trade a Problem

Five things the markets are talking about Two days after a ‘hawkish’ Fed in Jackson Hole, the U.S yield curve continues to flatten as the Feds favourite inflation measure stays below U.S policy makers +2% inflation target. Data Monday showed that July’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showed no growth in annualized inflation. The core-rate remains […]

Dollar Looks for Support From Yellen

Five things the markets are talking about Capital markets will be fully focused on Fed Chair Yellen’s speech today at Jackson Hole symposium (10am EDT), looking for clues on the timing of the next Fed rate hike. Will they get it? History will say no. Her speech is titled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit” […]

Dollar’s Asymmetric Rally “Unlearns What We Have Learn’t”

Another quiet day in Asia ahead of Fed Governor Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole. The USD has moved asymmetrically in last 24 hours. Rallying against some pairs and falling against other. Today we take a look at some of the most “interesting” moves and ponder whether positioning, Jackson Hole or other “forces” are at play. […]

Sterling Bears Feel the Heat After Retail Sales

Five things the markets are talking about It’s not a surprise to see the dollar turning lower post-FOMC minutes yesterday. The Fed’s communiqué illustrated a conflicted outlook for rate hikes; with some Fed members wanting to wait until inflation firms and others saying a rate increase would be warranted. A confusing message should have been […]

Will Investors Get FED Clarity Today?

Five things the markets are talking about Today’s is FOMC minute’s reporting day. Will investors get the granularity on the timing of U.S rate normalization they so much crave? Market odds are leaning towards a resounding ‘no.’ Already this week, investors have been served up some mixed messages from voting and non-voting members. Net result, […]

Abe’s Arrows Fail As USD/JPY Eyes 100.00

MORE ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT FROM JAPAN SEES USD/JPY PERCHED OMINOUSLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL. The urgency of Japans extra budget and the limits of Quantitative Easing were starkly revealed yesterday as the Japanese economy unexpectedly showed 0% GDP growth in the June quarter of 2016. This followed an anaemic growth of 0.5 % in Q1. […]

Dollar on the Defense After More Bad News

Five things the markets are talking about The ‘big dollar’s demise over the past few trading sessions is being driven by mixed U.S data and fixed incomes’ repricing of the U.S yield curve. The first regional Fed factory report for the month yesterday did not bode well for U.S manufacturing (dropped sharply to -4.2 from […]

Supply Glut Not Stopping Crude’s Rally

Five things the markets are talking about Capital markets are again adjusting themselves to disappointing data from the world’s largest economy. Friday’s July U.S retail sales data was not inspiring, with both the headline and core readings flat on a m/m basis, a big deceleration from the decent growth seen in the revised June report. […]

EURGBP – New Post-Brexit High in Sight

The euro is closing in on the post-Brexit highs against the pound today and could be eyeing levels not hit since August 2008.A weak performance in the pound towards the end of last week combined with a strong performance in the euro in the last couple of days has propelled the pair higher and could […]

Top trade idea for August 9th, 2016 – GBP/USD

S&P500 is trading nicely higher this month, currently at new all-time high after a completed flat correction in wave 4) at 2139 support area. As such, current leg up is red wave 5) that can be headed up to 2200 psychological region where traders need to be aware of resistance that may send index into […]

Dollar Positions Recalibrate

Five things the markets are talking about Investors are revising their latest outlook about the direction of the ‘mighty’ dollar – mainly on account of last week’s stellar non-farm payroll (NFP) report and the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest rate decision – and the changing odds for a Fed rate hike in H2. This mood […]

Gold: NFP’s Biggest Casualty

Five things the markets are talking about Friday’s non-farm payroll (NFP) report again points to a solid U.S labor market, potentially providing the Fed more room to raise rates later this year. Yield differentials are giving the USD its Monday morning lift across the G10 currency board ahead at the start of a light economic […]

Dollar Bulls Rely On A Strong NFP

Five things the markets are talking about Investors continue to look for signs that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground, and today’s ‘granddaddy’ of all fundamental releases, non-farm payrolls (NFP), will provide another glimpse of the health of the U.S economy. Last month’s employment print showed that the U.S added a whopping +287k jobs […]

Top trade idea for August 5th, 2016 – GBP/AUD

Both the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England cut rates this week. However, there is a clear difference in the performance of the respective currencies. Sterling’s move was a text book response, but the Aussie confounded expectations by rising. Naturally, this has traders watching GBP/AUD closely. The RBA cut rates on Tuesday […]

British Pound 6 Month Outlook 2016 2H

What’s happened since the Brexit vote? The month following the surprise vote by the U.K. to leave the European Union has been an eventful one and yet, the world has not quite come to an end, well not yet anyway. The resignation of David Cameron and the leadership contest that followed was swift and quickly […]

Super Thursday Lives Up To Super Hype

BOE and The Pound  A collective sigh of relief was heard at trading desks overnight, the result of decisive action taken by the Bank of England. Not one to shy away from a challenge, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney spoke frankly about an economic outlook that had “changed markedly”. Moreover, unlike the BoJ, RBA, […]

BoE’s Carney Has Two Choices

Investors are jaded with central bank decisions, yet in a matter of three-weeks the Bank of England (BoE) this morning readdresses the fallout of the historic Brexit decision. Recent U.K data has been dismal – reports point to slumping growth this quarter. In July, BoE official’s surprised investors by keeping overnight rates unchanged, but signaled […]

Big Dollar Squeeze Remains In Effect

Five things the markets are talking about The dollar has fallen to its lowest level since the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union due to the markets growing scepticism about policy makers’ efforts to boost growth and as oil prices hover around their three-month lows. Investors are worried that last Friday’s weak GDP figure […]

Fed Sitting On Fence Hurts Dollar

Five things the markets are talking about Despite being more upbeat than last months message, yesterday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement has failed to lift the mighty dollar. The Fed’s statement is considered evenly balanced. They acknowledged the strengthening labor market and deemed the “near-term risks to the economic outlook as diminished,” but on […]

Central Banks to Dictate Next Market Move

Five things the markets are talking about Investors will need to watch this afternoon’s FOMC statement on monetary policy closely. The central bank is not expected to move interest rates this week, but any hints on the likelihood of a future rate rise could move markets. With no press conference scheduled and no new economic […]

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