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Euro Faces Weekend Gap Risk with Greek Referendum Sunday

Talking Points: EURUSD holding near $1.1100 in thin trading conditions. EUR, CHF, GBP, and JPY carry significant gap risk over the weekend. See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, July 3, 2015. FX markets are likely to see higher volatility in the coming days. With US markets closed today in observance of Independence Day and […]

GBPUSD – Cable Seeking Bullish Confirmation

Cable is looking much more bullish since breaking though the 233-day simple moving average a couple of weeks ago and now it faces a key test of its bullishness, with the retest of that key SMA.When a big support or resistance level is broken, a key test of the quality of the break can be […]

USD/CAD on Cusp of Breakout as EUR/USD Retreats

Talking Points: EURUSD back down towards $1.1100 after Greek letter circus. USDCAD breaking through TL from March, June highs. See the DailyFX economic calendar for Wednesday, July 1, 2015. The USDOLLAR Index is looking on firmer ground after yesterday’s recent uptrend retest. We’re not just talking about the individual components of the index, in particular […]

Pound May Fall on UK GDP, Euro Engulfed in Greece Crisis Fallout

Talking Points: Greece Set to Miss IMF Repayment with As-Yet Unknown Euro Implications Pound May Decline if 1Q UK GDP Revision Weighs on BOE Rate Hike Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The revised set of first-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The […]

Charts to Start the Week as Euro Plays Victim to Greek Drama

Talking Points: Greece’s July 5 referendum means it will miss June 30 payment. Measures of EURUSD volatility jump to highest levels since 2011. See the June forex seasonality report. By all accounts, Greece’s fate in the Euro-Zone could be decided within the next week. The July 5 referendum vote on the Eurogroup’s aid package proposal […]

FX Market Readies for Weekend Summit for Greece Deal

Talking Points: European FX pairs quiet as market awaits summit on Saturday. May be deemed best risk management to lower leverage today. See the June forex seasonality report. If you’ve been away from the market for the past 24-hours, depending upon where you look, it might not seem like you’ve missed anything at all. The […]

Will Greece Ruin Capital Markets Weekend?

Major currencies contained for the moment Be prepared for a take-it-or-leave-it deal SNB’s Jordan will intervene or lower rates Liquidity to become more of an issue The forex market appears totally jaded with what’s going down, or not, with Greece and its creditors. For now, currency price moves are relatively contained, notwithstanding the odd fluctuation […]

EUR Bears Are Not Getting Their Favourite Bounce

Investors keeping tabs on intraday price moves EUR emerges again as a funding currency Euro leads want a Greek conclusion by tonight Germany losing economic momentum If nothing else, investors would be hard pressed not to find the current trading environment a challenge. Only weeks ago central banks forewarned investors about heightened market volatility and […]

Despite Optimism the EUR Is Lower: What Happened?

An eleventh hour breakthrough by Greece Greek capital controls remain a reality ECB offers daily lifeline through its ELA program Yen losing its safe-haven mojo It’s normal and prudent to find most investors preferring to deal with the facts while speculators, on the other hand, do just that; they speculate. Yesterday’s apparent breakthrough in Greek-European […]

The Skinny on Central Banks – RBA, BoE, FED, SNB and BoJ

This mix of overt and subtle withdrawal of market support is a key macro driver of recent increased volatility. Aside from Euro-Greek fiasco this week, there has been a handful of Central Bank rate announcements, growth projections, press conferences and minutes for the investor to digest. Having calmed investors for the past half-dozen years with […]

Post-FOMC USD Decline Nearing Completion?

Talking Points: AUDUSD, EURUSD making false breakouts higher from triangles. USDJPY tests recent swing low and bounces above ¥123.00. See the June forex seasonality report. A projected slower interest rate hike path by the Fed has weighed on the US Dollar the past two days. In March, the FOMC’s dot plot suggested that 77-bps of […]

Dollar Bulls See Red After FOMC

Fed provides no clarity to investors Fed offers a darker view on US economy for 2015 No consensus on the number of rate hikes for this year Investors unwinding dollar positions and market complacency The U.S dollar bull has being seeing red ever since the conclusion of yesterday’s FOMC meeting. The lack of clarity from […]

Fed Needs to Deliver the Right Message

Market on the fence for timing of Fed rate lift off Fed expected to deliver a more guarded statement BoE Hawkish statement supports cable Fixed income dealers price in BoE rate lift off in H1, 2016 The Fed has a tough job; it must deliver the right message later this afternoon. U.S policy makers cannot […]

GBPUSD – Cable Grinds Higher But Lacking Momentum

Cable appeared to be struggling to break through the 1.5550-1.56 resistance level yesterday having failed at the first attempt on decreasing momentum. However, this was never followed by the reversal setup that would have suggested the market had become more bearish and instead gathered some momentum to grind higher to 1.5650. This is a key […]

Dollar Supported by German Sentiment and U.K Prices

EUR briefly flirts with a new handle German June ZEW economic expectations survey disappoints Pound Plummets on Inflation Details Market to focus on FOMC and dot plot Traders cannot be disappointed with the markets price action. It’s whippy; it’s unpredictable and most importantly, its providing market opportunity. It’s no surprise that Greece is at the […]

British Pound Looks to UK CPI Data to Drive BOE Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound Looks to UK CPI Data to Direct BOE Interest Rate Hike Bets Australian Dollar Down as June RBA Minutes Reveal Call for Depreciation See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App May’s UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation […]

Key Technical Levels Remain for USD-pairs as Week Ends

Talking Points: EURUSD break through $1.1200 could mean $1.1050 next week. USDJPY needs to clear out ¥123.90. See the June forex seasonality report. It’s a much quieter day on the economic calendar, with only one event due over the next few hours that qualifies as a ‘medium’ or ‘high’ ranked event to close out the […]

GBPUSD – Still Bullish Despite Retail Sales Data

Having rallied strongly on Wednesday, cable is paring gains today but we are still seeing signs that the pair remains bullish. The most obvious of these came following the US retail sales release, which along with the core reading was better than already high expectations. The previous reading for April was also revised higher. This […]

GBPUSD – Bullish Breakout From Flag

The breakout of the flag highlighted yesterday (GBPUSD – Breakout Near After Consolidation) has occurred and as you’d expect from this bullish continuation pattern, it has come to the upside.The rally following the breakout has been quite strong, wasting no time whatsoever in breaking beyond last Thursday’s highs into a new uptrend (higher high completed […]

GBPUSD – Breakout Near After Consolidation

June has been a month of consolidation for cable so far. The pair has found resistance from the top of the descending channel and the 89-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart, while a number of support levels are combining to create a significant barrier to the downside.These include the 55 and 89-day SMA, […]

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