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Event Risk Trumps Forex Fundamentals

The euro gained on the U.S. dollar and the yen held steady in a thinned-holiday Asian trading session overnight. But as tensions rise between Russia and the West, and the violence in the Gaza Strip becomes increasingly bloody, geopolitical events remain the focal point for investors and all asset classes. The corporate earnings season is […]

EUR/USD Breakdown, GBP/CAD, USD/CAD Breakouts Eyed this Week

Talking Points: EURUSD below July 2012-July 2013 TL, needs below 1.3475. GBPCAD and USDCAD still both point to breakouts higher. Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD. It’s admittedly another quiet start to the trading week, with fewer than ten economic data releases (including central banker speeches) on the calendar for […]

No Yellin’ – EUR, GBP, JPY Ready to Breakout?

After many months of low forex volatility, one gets the distinct impression that the worst is probably behind us, and that there are a few signs emerging that would suggest that the main forex pairs are on the cusp of a major breakout. Dealers and investors require movement for opportunity and are just itching for […]

EUR Heavy Handed While Loonie Bulls Stand Ready

On day one of her congressional testimony Janet Yellen said very little that was new to the Senate Banking Committee. The Federal Reserve chief cited ongoing slack in the U.S. jobs market as a concern and she put the emphasis back on the data ‘dots’ with one of her comments of +1% rates at the […]

GBPJPY find support on yet another fib

The GBPJPY pair has been trading in a fairly straightforward manner since breaking out of a triangle formation back in mid-June. With key fibonacci levels having held up well in the past, signs are that we could be watching the pair move into the next step higher today following a strong bout of buying yesterday. […]

British Pound Rallies on Inflation Report, Will Jobs Data Curb or Amplify?

Talking Points: Dollar Advances on Yellen Commentary but Checked by Risk Waver British Pound Rallies on Inflation Report, Will Jobs Data Curb or Amplify? Euro Eyes 1.3500 as Equities Slide, Bond Yields Slowly Gain Dollar Advances on Yellen Commentary but Checked by Risk Waver Technically speaking, the US Dollar is in the middle of an […]

Top Trade Idea For July 16th, 2014 –GBP/USD

The pound lost some ground this morning in reaction to the UK labour market data. As expected, the unemployment rate fell to 6.5% in May from 6.6% in April, while jobless claims dropped by 36,300 applications last month which was better than expected. However, earnings growth was again weaker, which remains one of the main […]

Forget Euro Sentiment, Yellen to Provide FX direction

A plethora of economic data releases coupled with central bank rhetoric is expected to have a meaningful impact on forex market volatility this week and it can’t come too soon. Overnight in Australasia, it was the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that got the ball rolling. However, both have […]

Put GBP/CAD on Your Radar as GBP/USD, GBP/CHF See Key Reversals

Talking Points: GBP-crosses bullish both technically and fundamentally post-CPI. Time to put GBPCAD on your radar as USDCAD rallies too. Reminder that July forex seasonals in QE era work against USD. When the Bank of England eliminated the link between the labor market and its interest rate regime in February, it did so under the […]

EUR and GBP Are Committed To CFTC Reports

The world has been spoiled by the beautiful game for the past four weeks, and with yesterday’s final, can the markets now get down to some business? All the various asset classes have suffered during the tourney; all robbed of sustainable volume and volatility over the past few weeks and the beginning of the summer […]

Week in FX Europe: EUR Limps into next Week

EUR’s stability well contained Investors have confidence in the ECB Fed to maintain dovish strategy Restricted to a tight trading range against the U.S. dollar, the euro is holding steady against the greenback to end the week despite Thursday’s mini-capital markets meltdown thanks to Portugal’s highly publicized banking problems. The EUR’s stability suggests investors believe […]

Are EUR and Sterling Risks Climbing ?

All that the forex investor requires is some consistent intraday volatility — it provides opportunity. Overnight, Aussie trading is a prime example and certainly beats the 12-18 point EUR ranges that North America has been exposed to throughout the World Cup finals. Sessions like those have certainly poisoned market participation and enthusiasm. In general, the […]

Dollar Torn Between Revived Volatility and Fading Rate Forecasts

Talking Points: Dollar Torn Between Revived Volatility and Fading Rate Forecasts Euro’s Troubles Build as Sovereign and Financial Stability Concerns Revived British Pound: Hike Hopes Face True Test Next Week on CPI, Jobs Dollar Torn Between Revived Volatility and Fading Rate Forecasts Once again, the Dollar’s two primary fundamental guide-lines were pulling the currency in […]

Top Trade Idea For July 10th, 2014 – GBPUSD

Bank of England today and what a perfect occasion to take a look at the gbpusd pair and due to the fact that price is refusing to break the 1.72 area opens the case for a rising wedge. This rising wedge comes in the form of a terminal impulsive move that act as a bearish […]

Dollar Drops Despite a Rise in Volatility, Fed Forecast Standoff

Talking Points: Dollar Drops Despite a Rise in Volatility, Fed Forecast Standoff Euro Traders Start to Feel Rumbles in Financial System, Greece Again British Pound May not Have Been Cowed by Data but Yields Were Dollar Drops Despite a Rise in Volatility, Fed Forecast Standoff Forex traders are taking a pessimistic view of the US […]

GBP Is a Bad Apple While the Dollar Is Squeezed

Not the ideal start to a week where many expected more enthusiasms to be expressed across the various asset classes, especially after last week’s strong U.S. employment headline print. Maybe the market is priming itself for the summer doldrums. The global equities excuse is that investors prefer to assess equity valuations ahead of corporate earnings […]

Pound Looks to Industrial Output Data to Drive BOE Policy Speculation

Talking Points: British Pound May Pull Back if Industrial Production Data Disappoints Euro Focused on ECB Commentary on Stimulus Expansion Speculation Australian Dollar Outperformed on Firming RBA Outlook in Asia Trade UK Industrial Production figures headline a relatively quiet economic calendar in European hours. Output is expected to have added 3.2 percent year-on-year in May, […]

Top Trade Idea For July 8th, 2014 – GBP/USD

Having established a 6 year high against the dollar, the pound has given back some of its recent gains with British factory output suffering an unexpected slump in May. What is interesting is that this is a sector that recorded its strongest growth in the three months to April and despite some positive private sector […]

Strong June US NFPs Boost Technical Conditions for US Dollar Rally

Talking Points: US NFPs +288K, UR to 6.1% – USDOLLAR breaks June downtrend. AUDUSD, EURUSD more vulnerable than GBPUSD, USDJPY. July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however. Strong US labor data has set the pre-conditions necessary for a US Dollar rally. Now, several technical factors have lined up, opening a window […]

USD Bull’s Given Reasons To Hope

There has been an uptick in intraday volatility since yesterday’s better-than-expected U.S. employment report. However, the depth and breadth of these market moves have been held in check, mostly on the back of the holiday-shortened Independence Day weekend stateside. Nonetheless, the overall general sentiment remains: the world’s go-to currency of choice, the mighty dollar, is […]

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