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Euro Drops as Draghi Reaffirms Dovish Stance

Draghi vows to “do what we must” ECB President Mario Draghi once again delivered a very dovish message during his speech at Euro Finance Week this morning. His “we will do what we must” comment was almost reminiscent of his “whatever it takes” pledge back in 2012, although of course the latter was far more […]

Slow Lift Off Hurts Dollar

FOMC Minutes: “Most participants anticipated that, based on their assessment of the current economic situation and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, these conditions could well be met by the time of the next meeting” (December 15-16). Minutes gave investors little incentive to add to their long dollar positions: The USD […]

FX: Fears Subside, Rate Divergence Dominate

Central Banks monetary policy divergence continues to be the catalyst in the FX market. Similar to other recent terror attacks, capital markets response to the weekend events in Paris have been short lived. The brief risk-off trading has finished as investors continue to covet the dollar in anticipation for the first Fed hike in nearly […]

Top trade idea for November 16th, 2015 – EUR/JPY

Trading opportunities for currency pair: after a gap in the morning, a pinbar formed at 131.30. As part of a correction, a growth to 133.21 can be expected. This idea’s lifetime is just one short week and will become invalid if we see a closing of above 130.64. What’s of interest at the moment? At […]

BoE Chief Stresses Downside Inflation Risk

An uncertain U.K. outlook and the prospect of weaker-than-forecast inflation justify maintaining emergency policy settings, the Bank of England’s chief economist said on Thursday. “The case for raising interest rates is still some way from being made,” Andy Haldane told the Trade Union Congress in London. “A rate rise would increase unnecessarily the chances of […]

Top trade idea for November 11th, 2015 – GBP/USD

Much like yesterday afternoon, it has been a relatively quiet day in the FX markets due to the lack of any significant Eurozone or US data, and as North American banks are closed in observance of Veterans Day. But luckily, we’ve had some important employment data from the UK which caused a bit of volatility […]

Caution Seen Ahead of Crucial Jobs Report

U.S. futures are little changed as we approach the open on Friday, as investors adopt a more cautious approach ahead of the penultimate jobs report before December’s highly anticipated FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve has consistently stated that it intends to raise interest rates this year as long as the economy continues to recover in […]

Top trade idea for November 6th, 2015 – GBP/JPY

The Pound has been contained within a rising trend channel this month. Following yesterday’s comments from BOE Governor, Mark Carney, the Pound is testing channel support for the fourth time. The slow stochastic in the box below the chart shows that GBPJPY approaching support with good downward momentum.  However, it’s still well out of the […]

UK Construction Eyeing Fourth Quarter Recovery

European markets are poised for another higher open on Tuesday, taking the lead from the more bullish sentiment that drove US indices to some decent gains at the start of the week and much of Asia higher overnight. Monday’s economic releases were broadly quite encouraging albeit with the odd bit of concerning data hidden within […]

PMIs Give Cause For Optimism Ahead of US Data

Chinese Manufacturing in Contraction and Non-Manufacturing Not Picking Up the Slack The manufacturing sector has been in focus throughout the European session this morning, with PMI data for China, the U.K. and the eurozone driving sentiment at the start of the week. The data from China was a little uninspiring with both the official and […]

GBPUSD – Potential Bearish Setup at Resistance

Cable made steady gains again on Monday on the back of stronger than expected UK manufacturing data earlier in the session before running into resistance around 1.55, as it did on numerous occasions in October.The latest phase of the rally came at a time when the stochastic was making lower highs suggesting momentum in the […]

Post-ECB Charts Reveal Significant Damage to EUR-crosses

Talking Points: EUR-crosses suggesting significant technical damage after ECB. USD bulls may want to choose more selectively going forward. See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness. The ECB meeting yesterday blew away dovish expectations thanks to a remark made by President Mario Draghi during his press conference: that the Governing Council […]

Euro Steady Before ECB, GBP Soars on Retail Sales

ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference As the ECB approaches the one year anniversary of its long-awaited bond buying program, the eurozone finds itself back in deflation and investors are once again looking to the central bank to provide more monetary stimulus and offer a lift to the region. More stimulus could come in the […]

Pound May Rise as Carney Plays Down Rates Impact of Brexit Vote

Talking Points: Pound May Rise as BOE’s Carney Plays Down Rates Impact of Brexit Vote Australian Dollar Gains as Labor Party Agrees to Support FTA with China See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Scheduled commentary from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is in the spotlight in European trading […]

USDOLLAR Index Stalls, EUR/USD Falls as Traders Await ECB

Talking Points: EUR/USD continues slip from end of last week. AUD/USD remains coiled in symmetrical triangle. See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness. Traders may find that the next few days for EUR/USD (and the Euro more broadly) may be more frustrating that what’s transpired the past month. Since the September […]

AUD/USD, USD/JPY Reverse, but USD Decline May Not be Over Yet

Talking Points: AUDUSD consolidating in a new, ST symmetrical triangle. EURUSD slipping back; ECB next week may try to limit gains. See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness. Data has been disappointing for the US Dollar overall, even if yesterday’s jobless claims and US CPI figures helped lift the buck. In […]

Top trade idea for October 15th, 2015 – EURGBP

Classical rising wedge on the eurgbp cross here and now that the 2-4 trend line is broken we should see a stronger move to the downside. The thing is that this wedge is not a regular one, but it is the “c wave” of a flat pattern and judging by its structure, it has strong […]

Forex: Risk Aversion Continues To Dominate

The forex-trading theme remains the same – the USD under pressure with risk aversion trading strategies in vogue – as FI dealers scale back their Fed rate hike expectations. However, intraday fundamental data points continue to be important as investors seek more concrete guidance. The market will pick apart this morning U.S retail sales number […]

Top trade idea for October 14th, 2015 – USD/JPY

The US Dollar is lower once again today, with the GBP/USD rallying on the back of news UK’s employment rate hit the best level since records began in 1971 while the rate of unemployment fell to the lowest since 2008. The EUR/USD has also risen while the USD/JPY has weakened, apparently on the unwinding of […]

Dollar Takes A beating From Fed Rhetoric

Risk off sentiment currently dominates all asset classes. The overnight mixed China trade report has done little to support more substantial equity gains. The mighty buck and yen are again the favored safe haven currencies, mostly at the expense of high-beta commodity FX pairs (AUD, CAD and NZD). In EM pairs, the market is focusing […]

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