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Week In FX – Fed Gives Nothing Away, Dollar in Demand

Fed sticks to lower for longer S CPI an excuse to buy more dollars Fed September hike fully priced in Central Banks rate announcements dominate proceedings As to be expected, the Fed dominated this past week. Although the markets did not get the anticipated price moves when Yellen was giving her testimony on the ‘hill’, […]

GBP and EUR Data Gets Little Market Reaction

Yellen gives nothing away Investors prefer to wade out the month German debt print record low yields Bring on ECB and NFP It appears that the global investor is showing little reaction to Fed Chair Yellen’s second day of testimony on the hill yesterday. She provided no new hints on the timing or pace of […]

US Dollar May Fall if Soft Core Inflation Data Cools Fed Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: Euro, Pound Unlikely to Find Volatility in UK GDP and German Jobs Data US Dollar May Decline if Soft Core CPI Weighs on Fed Rate Hike Outlook Australian Dollar Down as Weak Capex Report Boosts RBA Rate Cut Bets The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. A marginal improvement on […]

Top Trade Idea For February 26th, 2015 – EURGBP

Even though it looks really ugly, the above five waves structure is about to end, if not already ended with a falling wedge in the shape of an impulsive move. I know that the 2-4 trend line is not broken yet, but what really matters is the structure of all those waves of a lower […]

Dollar Finds No Traction on Yellen’s Support for Hawkish Shift

Talking Points: Dollar Finds No Traction on Yellen’s Support for Hawkish Shift Euro Tuned into Greece Reform Review, Fear Fading Fast Australian Dollar Jerked Higher By Chinese Manufacturing Report Dollar Finds No Traction on Yellen’s Support for Hawkish Shift Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered her testimony before the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday and the content […]

Today the Dollar Depends on Yellen

Greek list a “valid starting point” Periphery bonds soar on Greece Market anticipates a “neutral” Yellen tone Do we wait for ECB’s QE for lower EUR? “Be seeing to be doing the right thing” something that Greece is delivering on this morning. A list of proposals submitted by the Greek government on how to overhaul […]

Pound May Rise as US Dollar Falls on Bank of England, Fed Testimony

Talking Points: British Pound May Rise as BOE Testimony Fuels Rate Hike Speculation US Dollar Disproportionately Vulnerable to Losses on Yellen Comments RBNZ Survey Puts Inflation Outlook at 15-Year Low, Sinks Kiwi Dollar Bank of England monetary policy expectations will be in focus in European trading hours as Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent […]

Market Looks to Yellen for Dollar Direction

Greek extension brings relief Market seeks Yellen guidance Inflation to dominate proceedings “Big Dollar” favored across the board The four-month extension of Greece’s support program agreed late last Friday has done nothing to change the probability of Greece potentially leaving the Eurozone. The market should remain realistic to the fact that the path towards a […]

Is USD Consolidation Ready to End? Charts for the Week

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index breaches topside of recent range 11770/810. EURUSD triangle, GBPUSD wedge, USDCAD triangle in focus. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for the week of February 22-27, 2015. Despite all the hoopla surrounding Greece’s late-week loan extension agreement, the reaction seen in the Euro complex wasn’t all that inspiring. In recently downtrodden pairs […]

USDOLLAR Back in Pre-FOMC Range – Will Greece Deal Stoke EUR/USD?

Talking Points: Greece seems close to caving on demands, seeks loan deal. EURJPY, EURUSD triangulate against 21-EMAs, election TL. See the February Forex Seasonality report and the implications for the majors. News about Greece’s loan extension have been slowly hitting the wires the past few hours, but there’s been little substantive impact on EUR-crosses up […]

Top Trade Idea For February 19th, 2015 – GBPUSD

Yesterday the jobs data in UK showed the unemployment rate moving to the downside at a healthy pace and, more importantly, the real wage growth picked up. This should translate in a favorable environment for growth as low inflation should help bring the GDP to better levels than expected. However, the technical picture still favors […]

Euro Pressure Builds as Another Greek Deadline Comes Into View

Talking Points: Dollar Consolidation Mirrors Yield Forecast Euro Pressure Builds as Another Greek Deadline Comes Into View British Pound Steady Despite Record Low Inflation Reading Dollar Consolidation Mirrors Yield Forecast Though the Dollar’s larger trend is still bullish – both fundamentally and technically – the speculative ranks have clearly paused in driving the currency higher. […]

Top Trade Idea For February 18th, 2015 – EUR/GBP

The pound has surged higher following a brief hiccup at the start of the week, supported by some really good jobs market data from the UK. The main highlight was the 2.1% increase in wage growth in the three months to December. The figure, which includes bonuses, was up sharply from 1.7% the month before […]

Pound Looks to Core CPI for Rates Cues, Greece Woes Continue to Fester

Talking Points: British Pound to Overlook Headline UK CPI, Take Cues from Core Figures Greece Woes Remain in Focus as EU Finance Ministers Convene in Brussels See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App January’s UK CPI figures are in focus in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is […]

Euro, USDOLLAR at Behest of Recent Trends amid US Market Holiday

Talking Points: EURUSD, AUDUSD pinned to daily 21-EMAs as key resistance. GBPUSD could extend gains after correction to 1.5330/35. See the February Forex Seasonality report and the implications for the majors. It’s a market holiday in the United States so those traders not celebrating President’s Day (I imagine there will be quite a few that […]

BoE’s Hawkish Quarterly Inflation Report Ignites GBP-crosses

Talking Points: GBPUSD rips back above 1.5300 on BoE’s QIR. Key reversals in GBPAUD, GBPCAD, EURGBP lead way. See the February Forex Seasonality report and the implications for the majors. Optimism within the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report about domestic conditions in the UK have spurred the British Pound to fresh weekly, monthly, and […]

Pound May Rise as BOE Inflation Report Stems Drop in Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound May Rise as BOE Inflation Report Renews Tightening Outlook Aussie Dollar Sinks as Jobs Data Fuels RBA Cut Bets, Yen Corrects Upward See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The publication of the Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report headlines is in focus in European trading […]

Dollar at Risk of Sharp Reversal Given the Wrong NFP Step

Talking Points: Dollar at Risk of Sharp Reversal Given the Wrong NFP Step Euro: How Much Worse Can Things Get? British Pound Unmoved by BoE Decision, But Next’ Report Will Hit Dollar at Risk of Sharp Reversal Given the Wrong NFP Step Technical traders recognize the Dollar is in an ominously risky position: leaning heavily […]

Franc Gains as ECB Shuns Greek Bonds, Pound to Look Past Static BOE

Talking Points: Franc Gains as ECB Says Greek Bonds Unacceptable as Collateral Australian, New Zealand Dollars Rise After China’s 50bps RRR Cut Bank of England Rate Decision Likely a Non-Event for the Pound The Swiss Franc outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appears […]

GBP/USD Shows Resiliency in Range; EUR/GBP, GBP/CAD Due to Follow?

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index holding 11713/746 support region. GBPUSD stabilizes, EURGBP fails at resistance…a ‘tell?’ See the February Forex Seasonality report and the implications for the majors. On balance, several of the more liquid currency pairs have made little progression up or down over the past week, but that doesn’t mean volatility hasn’t been present. […]

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