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FX Markets Continue To Debate FOMC’s Policy Trajectory

Jan-worst opening month for global equities in 7-years Feb 3-worst day for the dollar in 7-years Recent dollar move would usually be associated with a Fed policy move Is the market pricing in a policy error by Fed? Last week saw the ‘buck’s’ biggest weekly decline against the dollar index in seven-years (-3%). Even U.S […]

Top trade idea for February 8th, 2016 – GBP/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the price has broken from the support. We have two pinbars and a double bottom. On Monday it’s better not to make any big deals and keep an eye on the price of oil. If the GBP/CAD doesn’t fall, we could see two price zones as a target: 2.0325 and […]

5 Things The Markets Are Talking About

Credit Suisse shares plunge, oil’s wild ride and it’s Bank of England decision day. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. 1. Credit Suisse plunge Shares in Credit Suisse Group AG dropped to their lowest level since 1991 after the bank posted a loss of 5.8 billion Swiss francs […]

Great Unwind-‘Long’ Dollar Positions Recalibrate

The mighty dollar has been the darling of the forex market for 18-months now, mostly on rate differentials. But has the Fed got it right? So far this year, and after the first Fed rate hike in nine-years last December, the U.S fixed income market continues to price in a Fed policy error. Dealers see […]

Top trade idea for February 3rd, 2016 – GBP/USD

So weak has been the dollar this week that even the GBP/USD has managed to regain its poise. Clearly, traders are no longer expecting the US Federal Reserve to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle after the central bank had hinted in December at several more interest rate rises when it increased rates for the […]

Week in FX BOJ Shock to Pressure Central Banks

The Bank of Japan Cut Interest Rates into Negative Territory Putting Other Central Banks on the Spot The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced that it would apply a negative 0.1 percent rate to excess reserves starting February 16. The policy decision is a token as it would only apply to a limited set of funds, […]

5 Things The Markets Are Talking About

Markets react to the Fed, Abe loses economy minister and an earnings extravaganza. Here are some of the things people are talking about in markets today. 1. Fed reaction Emerging markets advanced in the aftermath of yesterday’s Fed statement which acknowledged global risks, reassuring investors that the pace of rate hikes could be slow. The […]

Top trade idea for January 26th, 2016 – GBP/USD

GBPUSD made another bearish leg after the price took out 1.4560 level as noted in our past updates. Notice that current decline is extended, so it must be impulsive as part of a much bigger bearish cycle. However, price reached our Fibonacci projected levels for current wave 3-circled where bearish wave can be slowing down; […]

Top trade idea for January 25th, 2016 – GBP/USD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: a candle with a small body and a long lower shade has formed. The rebound was 180 points. It’s likely that we will see an upward correction to 1.4565. Growth will cancel with a close of the weekly candle below 1.4079. Background The last ideas I made on the GBP/USD […]

US Retails Sales Fall To Weakest Level In 6-Years

Sales at U.S. retailers declined in December to wrap the weakest year since 2009, raising concern about the momentum in consumer spending heading into 2016. The 0.1 percent drop matched the median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg and followed a 0.4 percent gain in November, Commerce Department figures showed Friday in Washington. For […]

5 Things What The Market Is Talking About

No respite for oil, China defends the yuan, and Goldman says there will come a time to buy stocks. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. 1. Volatile oil Both WTI and Brent crude dropped below $31 a barrel this morning before recovering to trade at $31.25 and $31.62 […]

Canada: International merchandise trade, November 2015

Canada’s imports decreased 0.7% in November and exports increased 0.4%. Import volumes declined 1.6% while prices increased 0.9%. For exports, volumes were up 0.7% while prices declined 0.4%. As a result, Canada’s merchandise trade deficit with the world narrowed from $2.5 billion in October to $2.0 billion in November. Exports to the United States increase, […]

GBPUSD – Selling Accelerates as Support Broken

The pound has been in decline against the dollar since last summer but the selling appears to have accelerated in the last couple of trading session, which suggests the outlook is pretty bleak. The pair has traded gradually lower over the last seven months, remaining within the descending channel almost entirely during this period, but […]

British Pound Year Ahead – Brexit To Dominate 2016

BoE in no rush to raise rates Brexit referendum to dominate proceedings Weak energy prices – a friend or foe for the U.K economy? Pound’s key support remains close to £1.4800 2015 in Review This has been something of a turnaround year for the UK in which unemployment has fallen back to pre-financial crisis levels, […]

Top trade idea for December 17th, 2015 – GBPJPY

Looking at a potential gbpjpy impulsive move to the upside that needs to return to the end of the third wave green and this means a move to 175. Now that the Fed is behind us and hiked the rates we remain with the technical picture but still this is a daily chart and it […]

Bank of England Announcement Seeking to Regain Market’s Trust After ECB Debacle

UK Central Bank Expected to Hold Rates With Vote Count Key for Willingness to Hike After the market reaction to the European Central Bank (ECB) statement last week after failing to communicate its true commitment investors will be treated to a more stable release from the Bank of England. Governor Mark Carney has started a […]

Tip TV Interview with Craig Erlam

Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam was on Tip TV earlier discussing the ECB and OPEC and giving his analysis on EURUSD, EURGBP and WTI Crude. About Craig Erlam Based in London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDAin 2015 as a Market Analyst. With more than five years’ experience as a financial market analyst and trader, he […]

Top trade idea for December 2nd , 2015 – GBP/USD

After the slow click-click-click of suspense-building economic data early in the week, the rollercoaster ride has started in earnest for traders. Overnight, traders got their first look at Australian Q3 GDP data, which came out better-than-expected at 0.9% q/q and we also got a small positive revision to last month’s report. Unfortunately, the positive vibes […]

Dollar Retreats As Rate Hike Pace Questioned

The U.S dollar starts the final month of the year under pressure across the board as dealers and investors prudently price in market expectations of a gradual tightening cycle by the Fed. Currently, it’s considered a forgone conclusion that the Yellen and company will begin their rate normalization policy on December 16. Now it’s about […]

Top trade idea for November 30th, 2015 – GBP/USD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the monthly candle has closed the previous two months and will be closing down. The target is 1.4560. Due to the general strengthening of USD and according to the cycle, the pound/dollar’s fall could last until the beginning of March 2016. Since the scenario is a weekly one, it could […]

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