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Week in FX Europe – ECB not influenced by flash CPI

Geopolitical tension on the rise Euro flash CPI has not changed ECB consensus Italian job numbers break trend Month-end portfolio demand, geopolitical and event risk are all taking a stab at making an impact on forex prices. So far, and not unfamiliar, investors continue to wade through the same contrived trading ranges, but this time […]

Will Geopolitical Events Trump EUR’s Postponed Downfall?

What will come of the weak EUR bear position holders as the 18-member single unit trades up through the psychological €1.3200 handle? Clouding some of this morning’s price action will be month-end demand but with word that Russian forces have seized a coastal town inside of Ukraine on Thursday morning, geopolitical risk is once again […]

EUR Demise Supported By Record-Low Peripheral Yields

This Friday cannot come soon enough for some forex market participants. So far this week, investors have been starved for fundamental data to back their currency positions. Many have had to make do with last week’s central bank rhetoric for direction. The currency positioning play has been agonizingly slow to watch and the current market […]

Dollar Hits 12-Month High Versus Euro, S&P 500 Crosses 2000

Talking Points: Dollar Hits 12-Month High Versus Euro, S&P 500 Crosses 2000 Euro Sinks as Market Rate Slides to Record Low USDJPY Climbs for a Seventh Straight Day Dollar Hits 12-Month High Versus Euro, S&P 500 Crosses 2000 Where were the balloons? The S&P 500 marked yet another milestone in its line of records by […]

EUR Shorts Hanging Tough For Now

With the U.K. markets back online today after a holiday long weekend, playing catch-up is the order of the day. European credit markets are trading firmer this morning despite the non-rapturous applause in Asia that saw the Nikkei, Shanghai Composite Index, and Hang Seng Index close in the red after some quick profit-taking on the […]

Dollar Hawks Look to Swoop Down on EUR Doves

A sleight of hand, a change of heart, and central bank policymakers are about to change the rulebooks on monetary policy. To date, the forex market has been cocooned by a Group of 10 low rate monetary policies resulting in a low volume, low volatility trading landscape. It would seem that the squeeze is on […]

Week In FX Europe – Russia Has Euro Stocks Offside

Europe closes on “wrong side of right” EUR’s weakening stride intact German 10-year Bund trade at +0.97% Ms. Yellen has come and gone and her labor and rate thoughts will be deciphered in greater detail after the weekend. The European session is closing on the “wrong side of right” as fresh signs of escalation to […]

Trade Idea For August 22nd ,2014 -GBP/CAD

After several months of sideways drift, the pound now has the potential to break down against the Canadian Dollar. Comments by Mr. Carney and well behaved UK inflation have recently exerted downward pressure. My trade idea is to sell on a clear break below the 200 day moving average looking for a deeper correction of […]

Will Jackson Hole Be A Currency Event?

There’s chatter in the market that the two-day central bank symposium getting underway in Jackson Hole, Wyo., today could be a currency event, another type of Plaza Accord. Up until now, the market had been solely on the lookout for any hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s presentation at the forum tomorrow to […]

EUR/USD Slide Continues but EUR Weakness Elsewhere Questionable

Talking Points: EURUSD cracks to fresh yearly lows at 1.3241. USDCHF has resumed its move towards 0.9160/89. US Dollar strength in August shouldn’t surprise – it’s a seasonally strong month. EURUSD and USDCHF are back in tandem, and while that mean a bit more EURUSD weakness as USDCHF tries for $0.9160, that doesn’t mean that […]

Will BoE Dissenters Change Sterling’s Direction?

Currently, the central banker remains at the core for most forex moves. Governor Glenn Stevens at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is trying hard to jawbone the Aussie dollar lower. While the “policy chameleon” — Governor Mark Carney at the Bank of England (BoE) — confused investors with hawkish remarks last weekend, following dovish […]

Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks

Talking Points: Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks British Pound Surprised by BoE Hawks, But Doesn’t Turn Euro Traders Ready for Another Round of Economic Data Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks Between two days of key event risk, it seemed that the US Dollar was due a period of moderation. However, this […]

Sterling Bulls Back down While EUR Bear Waits

The forex markets require a diverging interest rate policy among the Group of Seven economies for sustainable volatility. In 2014, geopolitical risk has been regionally contained and risk-on or -off trading strategies have been orderly executed, regardless if it has been influenced by events in Russia-Ukraine, Gaza, Syria or Iraq. Various individuals will argue that […]

Dollar Needs Inflation to Sustain Break from Equities, Yields

Talking Points: Dollar Needs Inflation to Sustain Break from Equities, Yields British Pound Faces Another Wave of Potential Volatility with CPI New Zealand Dollar Drops as Inflation Readings Further Cut Rate Forecast Dollar Needs Inflation to Sustain Break from Equities, Yields The Dollar opened the new trading week with a mixed performance. Between modest gains […]

Governor Carney’s Chameleon Efforts Lift GBP

Risk-on and -off trading remains the order of the day at least until the investor is convinced that the geopolitical landscape has changed for the better. If one eliminates geopolitical aggressive pricing actions from the equation then investors are left dealing with tenuous global growth to price. In a week stacked with central bank meetings […]

British Pound Gains as Carney Talks Up Interest Rate Hike Timeline

Talking Points: British Pound Stronger as BOE Governor Carney Talks Up Rate Hike Bets Yen May Decline as Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise on Firming Risk Appetite See Economic News Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The British Pound outperformed to start the trading week, rising as much as 0.3 percent on […]

Week in FX Europe – the Euro Needs a Catalyst

Lower for longer rates policy remains intact Global bourses eke out a weekly win Periphery debt outperforms Bunds Weak global data has the market again pricing the lower-for-longer mantra mostly in play by the main central banks. Investors this week were exposed to a multitude of weaker economic reports from Japan to Europe and even […]

Short-EUR Position Plays Require Patience

New dynamics are now entering the fray. Prior to this week, capital markets were beginning to buy into the notion the Bank of England (BoE) would initiate a rate hike as early as the fourth quarter. A day and a couple of reports later, the market is focusing on the need for further stimulus to […]

GBP Flees the Charging Bulls

Volatility in the forex market space has been in short supply throughout this year. If anything, it has been regionally contained by central bank policies despite the uptick in both geopolitical and economic event risks. Sustainable forex volatility will only occur with greater Group of 10 rate divergence, or in other words, varying degrees of […]

GBPCHF hits major support level in bearish move

The GBPCHF pair has been moving towards the downside over the past two weeks following the breakout of a strong ascending channel formation. This has continued apace today following the sell-off inspired by events at the BoE. The rejection of the upper threshold of the current descending wedge also coincided with the 50% retracement. This […]

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