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U.S Dollar Stumbles, But Does Not Fall

Five things the markets are talking about It seems that investors are happy to take a breather in this holiday-shortened week as the dollar pares this week’s surge supported by U.S rate differentials. The “reflationary trade” continues to suck money back in to U.S equity markets, while putting further pressure on emerging market FX rates, […]

Asia Quiet on a Tokyo Holiday

Trading across all asset classes has been subdued in Asia today with a holiday in Tokyo and ahead of Thanksgiving in the United States. The market continues to catch its breath after an exciting two weeks with only AUD/USD showing signs of life in Asia trading today. AUD was buoyed by more frenzied buying of […]

Crude Bulls Looking For $55 A Barrel

Five things the markets are talking about Hopes that the Trump administration would usher in a pro-business, pro-growth environment continue to drive stocks and yield higher and favour the dollar on rate differentials. Yesterday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite closed out to complete a trifecta of records as equities continued […]

Trump Jump To High?

Five things the markets are talking about Markets have been very positive on the new U.S President elect and have been quick to embrace the “reflation” trade over the past fortnight. Is it too much perhaps? If so, this would suggest that some of the aggressive market moves that we have witnessed across the various […]

Fed Hike Odds Near 100%

Five things the markets are talking about Dealers and investors are now seeing a near-certainty of a Fed rate hike next month, with odds of an increase rising to +94% from +86% after Tuesday’s retail-sales report. Yesterday, U.S retail sales advanced a seasonally adjusted +0.8% last month while September’s gain was boosted to +1%, marking […]

Market Moves Overdone?

Five things the market is talking about The speed and ferociousness of some of the price moves across the various asset classes since Donald Trump was elected U.S President have been stunning. The intensity of the sovereign bond rout has cost investors more than a +$1.5trillion dollars – U.S 10-year notes have backed up +41bps […]

Sterling Pounds Brexit Bears

Five things the markets are talking about Victory for new President Trump has markets focusing on the prospect of substantial public spending lifting U.S inflation and prompting a rise in domestic interest rates. The odds of two Fed rate hikes by end of next year have risen to almost +90%, and it’s this potential rate […]

Top trade idea for November 10th, 2016 – GBPCHF

The GBPCHF cross is looking bullish here as it may benefit from two factors moving forward: one will be the overall sell-off in the CHF as the USDCHF major seems poised to break the parity level, and the other one will be the GBP resilience. The US election brought both a panic and a relief […]

Markets Freeze Ahead of Fractious Presidential Vote

Five things the markets are talking about With the gap in U.S election polling still within the margin of statistical error, is the current risk rally in markets ahead of voting a little premature? It fells like Brexit deja vu all over again for capital markets – limited upside (Clinton win), massive downside with a […]

Strap In, Capital Markets Are In For A Wild Ride

Five things the markets are talking about Market volatility continues with a risk-on rally gaining momentum overnight now that the FBI said Sunday that no new evidence was found to warrant charges against Clinton. Last week saw global equities slide again, crude oil under pressure on doubts about OPEC’s ability to cut production at its […]

NFP Just a Sideshow, Focus Remains on U.S Election

Five things the markets are talking about Capital market price-moves this week has not been for the faint of heart. If it’s not a geo-political squeeze, it’s a safe haven asset demand perforated by central banks go-slow summer monetary policy rhetoric. Recent heightened volatility will remain until investors can get clarity on the U.S Presidential […]

OANDA Trading Desk: US Election Risk meets Brexit

It is extremely hard to shift focus from anything other the US elections, given the abundance of cacophony and headline risk associated with the event; however, Brexit risk hit the limelight overnight after the High Court ruled against the UK government, which means that the government requires Parliament’s approval to trigger Article 50. US Election […]

Risk Failing to Regain Lost Traction

Five things the markets are talking about The Fed kept the status quo on rates as expected Wednesday, now it’s on to tomorrow’s non-farm payroll (NFP) to queue further short-term market direction. Data yesterday showed that private U.S. employers continued to hire at a solid clip last month, further proof that the world’s largest economy’s […]

What to Expect from the Fed Today?

Five things the markets are talking about Current market consensus believes the Fed will leave short-term interest rates unchanged later today (2pm EDT), but remain on track to raise them at next months meeting, Dec. 14. With the Fed’s Yellen not scheduled to hold a press conference, and with U.S officials not releasing any new […]

China Data Surprise has Markets Keeping Its Powder Dry

Five things the markets are talking about There are probably three potential events that could overturn this market’s expectations of a December Fed hike (fed funds are pricing in a +75% chance) – a Trump presidency, a disappointing NFP and/or a volatile equity market. Now that the FBI is reopening its inquiry into Clinton’s use […]

Too Predictable

Focus remained on the US elections overnight obscuring the Central Bank narrative that lies ahead. After all was said and done the most recent tracking polls, which includes the latest FBI account, indicates Clinton continues to steady her lead in the polls  47-41 %, but this news has been largely overshadowed by plunging OIL prices […]

‘Pound’ for Your Thoughts?

Five things the markets are talking about This is a massive week for capital markets. There are four central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who will be keeping the various asset classes on their toes with their […]

Bond Bloodbath Supports Dollar

Five things the markets are talking about With capital markets growing more confident that the Fed will raise U.S. interest rates by year-end has treasury yields backing up across the curve and making the “mighty” dollar even more attractive. The U.S. Dollar Index has risen +3.7% this month, currently trading atop at 98.93 overnight, just […]

Scandi Central Banks Don’t Disappoint, U.K GDP Surprises

It’s business as usual from two of Scandinavia’s key central banks Thursday as Norway’s Norges and Sweden’s Riksbank left their main overnight funding rates unchanged. In the U.K, GDP has beaten expectations despite June’s Brexit vote. Norges seems done for now Norway’s decision was as expected, judging that the current cost of borrowing (+0.5% since […]

Dollar Reluctantly Grinds Higher For Now

Five things the markets are talking about Rate differentials continue to support the “big” dollar, as it grinds higher across the board after a number of Fed speakers yesterday again lent their support for higher rates. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said December was “most likely” the best time for a tightening of […]

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