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Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition

Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition Today’s focus will clearly be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, which is scheduled to be delivered at 10 am EST. According to the Curriculum, the topic is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future”, which is, in itself, a rather academic-sounding piece and unlikely […]

Is the Fed setting the stage for a lower normal rate horizon?

Five things the markets are talking about Currently, the Fed is saying one thing, but the market is trading on something else. Recent official rhetoric expects a rate increase sometime this year, but the U.S yield curve is not pricing that in at the moment. In fact, the first full +25bp increase is not priced […]

South African Rand Slammed!

The South African Rand (Zar) plunged 3.5 % as news emerges of a police summons and a separate investigation of the Finance Minister by tax authorities. The South African Rand (ZAR) collapsed 3.5 % against the USD in a matter of minutes during the New York session. Moving from 13.50 to 14.05 before settling in […]

The Waiting Game : Jackson Hole

USDJPY Traders have been reticent overnight with the currency mired in tight ranges. BOJ stimulus talks versus the Fed dovishness outlook: Traders are stuck in limbo, aware that there is some BOJ uncertainty on how they will deal with a strengthening Yen; while the near-term Fed outlook is equally clouded, not the best landscape to […]

Markets Fish For Fed Clues

Five things the markets are talking about Most of the big’ dollars strength has come on the back of a number of ‘bullish’ Fed member comments over the past few sessions. Late last week, Fed members Dudley and Williams both suggested that they would not completely rule out an interest rates hike in September. Last […]

R-Stars to Falling Stars

R-Stars to Falling Stars  Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is turning into this year’s most anticipated event when it comes to US monetary policy. While Jackson Hole rarely disappoints the “Econ-Geek” in all of us, traders are on high alert after a befuddling policy divide amongst Fed Members and will […]

The Fed: A Great Divide or A Growing Rift

By any measure of price action, the longer Traders have to dwell repetitively and ruminate on the Fed policy the less US dollar friendly they are likely to become. From the rhetoric making the rounds  , it would seem that Federal Reserve officials face a very complex, and possibly divisive  debate over the conundrum of […]

EURJPY – Is the Trading Range About to be Broken?

The euro has been trading within quite a tight range against the yen over the last couple of weeks between 112.50 and 114 and only today failed at the upper end of the range, but is it done there?The pair entered the Ichimoku cloud on the 4-hour chart for the second time in that period, […]

Will Investors Get FED Clarity Today?

Five things the markets are talking about Today’s is FOMC minute’s reporting day. Will investors get the granularity on the timing of U.S rate normalization they so much crave? Market odds are leaning towards a resounding ‘no.’ Already this week, investors have been served up some mixed messages from voting and non-voting members. Net result, […]

Abe’s Arrows Fail As USD/JPY Eyes 100.00

MORE ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT FROM JAPAN SEES USD/JPY PERCHED OMINOUSLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL. The urgency of Japans extra budget and the limits of Quantitative Easing were starkly revealed yesterday as the Japanese economy unexpectedly showed 0% GDP growth in the June quarter of 2016. This followed an anaemic growth of 0.5 % in Q1. […]

Dollar on the Defense After More Bad News

Five things the markets are talking about The ‘big dollar’s demise over the past few trading sessions is being driven by mixed U.S data and fixed incomes’ repricing of the U.S yield curve. The first regional Fed factory report for the month yesterday did not bode well for U.S manufacturing (dropped sharply to -4.2 from […]

Supply Glut Not Stopping Crude’s Rally

Five things the markets are talking about Capital markets are again adjusting themselves to disappointing data from the world’s largest economy. Friday’s July U.S retail sales data was not inspiring, with both the headline and core readings flat on a m/m basis, a big deceleration from the decent growth seen in the revised June report. […]

US Consumer Wallets Remain Closed

US Consumer Wallets Remain Closed The US retail sales figures disappointed, raising doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year. The US consumer needs to start spending for the Fed to be satisfied the economy is firing on all cylinders. Consumer reluctance to open their wallets left many stumped and even […]

U.S Retail Sales A Big Disappointment

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat in July as Americans cut back on purchases of clothing and other goods, pointing to a moderation in consumer spending that could temper expectations of an acceleration in economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said on Friday that the unchanged reading last month followed an upwardly […]

Top trade idea for August 12th, 2016 – USD/JPY

Many traders do their utmost to avoid crowded trades. Usually, they were hurt at some stage in their trading career by a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” scenario. That is, their analysis was right, but the market moved the “wrong” way. This is the reason some traders will deliberately seek different parameters, different ways […]

Bell Ringing- Bellwethers

Bell Ringing- Bell Weathers  The three bellwether US indexes, the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ, all closed at record highs yesterday, in part assisted by a rebound in energy stocks after a 4% bounce in crude oil. In addition, the US Retail Sales Report for July is expected to be buoyant after US retailers reported better than […]

Top trade idea for August 11th, 2016 – EURJPY

EURJPY trading around 113 level and it looks bearish from my point of view in the sense that we have a possible wave a of a double combination that started after the previous contracting triangle ended. This being a cross, it should be mentioned that it is travelling based on the differences between the two […]

Be Wary of RBNZ Announcement

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday, the average implied volatility on G10 currencies, an indicator of expected swings over the next month, fell to its lowest level since January 2015. That, of course, is when the SNB lifted its cap on the CHF. The Fed and other Tier 1 central banks have played […]

Top trade idea for August 10th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

Tonight’s key fundamental event is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting, scheduled for 22:00 BST or 17:00 ET. The RBNZ is widely expected to trim interest rates 25 basis points to a new record low of 2.0 per cent. The market seems to have mostly priced in this scenario. The RBNZ will therefore […]

Carry on my Wayward Markets

Australian Dollar – Carry is King Higher Yield currencies are leading the charge, stoked by booming risk appetite. The market is buying into the underlying premise that the US economy is robust, but not churning at sufficient levels to warrant any immediate policy response. This argument was reinforced by a less optimistic US Non-Farm Productivity […]

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