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Week in FX – Patient Fed Soothes Jittery Markets

Fed’s message brings season tidings BoJ Keeps Status Quo Abe’s cabinet to approve stimulus soon Market makes a beeline for the ‘turn’ Capital markets are poised to fall silent as the holidays are about to begin in earnest. It’s in hot pursuit of the broad-based risk-on rally that has given U.S. equities their biggest two-day […]

Yen Down on Risk Appetite Swell But Year-End Flows May Fuel Turn

Talking Points: Return of Year-Capital Flows May Reboot Pre-FOMC Price Action Trends Yen Down, Aussie and NZ Dollars Higher as Risk Appetite Swells Overnight See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The safe-haven Japanese Yen slumped while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollar advanced as risk appetite firmed overnight. […]

Will Negative Swiss Rates Reduce CHF Demand?

SNB goes negative in January Market assess policy moves by Fed and SNB EUR under pressure from intervention demands Yen bears relieved with higher U.S. yields Over the past 24 hours, capital markets have managed to navigate the last of the significant central bank scheduled meetings for this calendar year with the conclusion of the […]

FOMC Preview and Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Talking Points: EURUSD breaks uptrend from December 9 low. USDJPY back to neckline of potential top.. December forex seasonality foresaw a modestly weaker Euro. As fear and tumult rage on in emerging market currencies, one must not forget the headline event of the week: the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of 2014. Undoubtedly, market participants […]

Pound May Weaken on UK CPI, Euro to Look Past PMI Data

Talking Points: US Dollar Corrected Lower in Overnight Trade, Loonie in the Lead Ruble Bounce on Surprise Russia Interest Rate Hike Unlikely to Last UK CPI May Weigh on British Pound, Euro to Look Past PMI Data The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having edged higher in the preceding 24 hours. The Canadian […]

Week in FX – Risk Steadies Dollar Ahead of Elections and FOMC

Crude prices to continue to suffer Japan’s Abe a winning cert on Sunday? No U.S inflation pressures along supply chain More Central Banks to apply pressure next week Investors have just completed navigating through a week that was not for the fainthearted. The market was peppered with news of new record lows for crude (West […]

Yen May Rise Anew as Russian Trade Data Weighs on Risk Appetite

Talking Points: Russian Trade Balance Data May Rekindle Risk Aversion into the Week-End Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise on Upbeat US Data, NZ Dollar Corrects Lower See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Emerging-market jitters may renew pressure on risky assets in the final hours of the trading week. […]

Top Trade Idea For December 12th, 2014 – EUR/JPY

On Monday (Sunday night), the Tankan manufacturing indices for Q4 are released in Japan, along with Tokyo condominium sales. Weaker industrial production and capacity utilisation numbers this morning have expectations trending down, but the Yen has not fallen with them. This may mean that the weaker reads are already priced in. With no major European […]

USD: Big Year-End Squeeze in the Making?

China incites negative momentum trading Aussie temp cools, Kiwis will know later Is it Easy Street for Abe? Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, along comes another wave of negativity that less nimble investors are drowning in as capital markets prepare to closeout an extraordinary year. Disappointing data […]

Japanese Yen May Outperform Amid Profit-Taking on Top 2014 Trades

Talking Points: Yen Outperformed on Safe-Haven Flows Amid Risk Aversion in Asian Trade Quiet European, US Data Docket May Keep Seasonal Forces in the Spotlight See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.8 percent on average against its leading […]

USDOLLAR Index at Risk of Near-Term Top

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index threatens uptrend from late-November pivot low. Watching post-ECB highs in EURUSD near 1.2455. See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. The broader USDOLLAR Index may have broken to fresh yearly highs last week after the stronger than expected November US labor market report, but there has been little […]

Week in FX – U.S and Canada Moving in Opposite Directions

U.S on course for jobs record Dollar goes “walkabout” ahead of holiday’s Canada takes the wrong route Loonie at a loss on jobs report Friday delivered a nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report that blew away the critics, conspiracy theorists, and jittery investors in one fell swoop. U.S. employers ramped up hiring in November, continuing a stretch […]

Dollar, Yen Torn Between US Jobs Data and Year-End Capital Flows

Talking Points: US Dollar Needs Outsized Beat on Payrolls Print to Refuel Upward Drive Yen May Rise After Overnight Drop on Year-End Flows After NFP Report German Factory Orders, Eurozone GDP Revision Unlikely to Stir the Euro A relatively muted economic calendar in European trading hours puts the spotlight on US Employment figures. The report […]

Draghi and ECB Have A Minimum Requirement

BoE non-event risk in pipeline Draghi’s headaches persist What’s the ECB’s minimum requirement? EUR expectations if disappointed The threat of global central bank action is managing to keep the various assets classes moving. Whether it’s the Central Bank of Russia (tighter monetary policy next week?), the People’s Bank of China (easing of monetary policy?), the […]

Australian Dollar Hit 4 Year Low on High Volume Before RBA

Talking Points: Dollar Drops as Commodities Rebound and Equities Slide Australian Dollar Hits 4 Year Low on High Volume Before RBA Swiss Franc: EURCHF Doesn’t Rally Far After ‘No’ Vote on Gold Dollar Drops as Commodities Rebound and Equities Slide In a day scarred by volatility, the Dollar notably ended the day in the red. […]

Top Trade Idea For December 2nd, 2014 – AUD/JPY

Today, we will take a look at AUDJPY, which has been in nice and strong uptrend for the past few weeks. But what I spotted lately is a five wave decline from the high. This is always very significant, and important information as it tells me that something is changing. So even if trend has […]

A Snapshot of Central Bank Thinking

Rate divergence to continue European Central Bank Credibility on the Line Inflation Stymies the Bank of Russia The Fed’s Game of Show and Tell Some of the main central banks continue to eye handcuffing investors to a low rate environment throughout the first half of 2015. The current exception to the loose monetary policy regime […]

GBPJPY ascending triangle looking bullish

The GBPJPY pair is currently trading within an ascending triangle formation, following a major round of buying in the past month and a half. Given both the technical and fundamental outlook, I expect to see the pair break out to the upside for a continuation higher. The daily chart shows that the pair is currently […]

Euro Heading Into Turbulent Fundamental Seas

Talking Points: Dollar: US Capital Markets are Closed, But Not the Currency Euro Heading Into Turbulent Fundamental Seas Yen Crosses Far More Sensitive to Policy Comments with Risk Sidelined Dollar: US Capital Markets are Closed, But Not the Currency With the US heading into its Thanksgiving holiday, liquidity was seen draining from the system. Given […]

Japanese Yen May Rise as Year-End Capital Flows Begin to Emerge

Talking Points: Japanese Yen May See Recovery as Year-End Capital Flows Start to Emerge British Pound Looks to 3Q GDP Revision to Inform BOE Rate Hike Outlook US Dollar May Rise on Fed Tightening Bets if News-Flow Proves Supportive Seasonal factors may increasingly factor into price action as the on-coming Thanksgiving holiday in the US […]

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