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Top Trade Idea For October 1st,2014 – USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has finally entered the key 110.00-110.65 technical area (see monthly chart in figure 1). The lower end of this range, i.e. 110, is a key psychological barrier while the 110.65 level was the high achieved back in August 2008. Around these levels I would expect to see some profit-taking, which may apply […]

EUR Loses Foothold on the Cross

The 18-member single unit has managed to fall to a fresh two-year low outright this morning, briefly penetrating the psychological €1.26 handle (€1.2595), just as capital markets bid farewell to another volatile September and third quarter. Meanwhile, European equities are edging higher, trying to reverse yesterday’s decline ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) next […]

Forex Carry Trades Are in Trouble

Volatility is the forex investor’s greatest ally. In the month of September, there has been no let up from this key variable that had been missing during the Group of Eight central bank lower-for-longer interest rate stretch of the past two years. Volatility provides investors opportunity, something that has been in abundance for a number […]

Technical Case for Weak EUR/USD Persists – Will Fundamentals Match?

Talking Points: EURUSD continues to be guided by 13-EMA. Watch flag develop in USDJPY – failed breakout worth watching for. EURUSD has been on a major losing streak since mid-August. EURUSD faces two important tests this week: the European Central Bank on Thursday; and whether or not it will maintain its downtrend at the daily […]

Top Trade Idea For September 29th, 2014 – SGD/JPY

In early August, SGD/JPY (the Singapore dollar against the Japanese yen) hit a low near 81. Five weeks later, it began a serious uptrend which saw a rise of more than 500 pips. For the past week or so, it has consolidated within a narrow range. This should provide us an opportunity to join the […]

Dollar Rising Too High for Fed’s Liking?

Talking Points: Dollar Rising Too High for Fed’s Liking? Euro Discounts Draghi Talk, Bigger Concerns Looming New Zealand Dollar Suffers Biggest Drop in 15 Months Dollar Rising Too High for Fed’s Liking? Earlier this week, New York Fed President William Dudley remarked that the US Dollar’s rapid rise could hinder growth and undermine the central […]

Top Trade Idea For September 26th, 2014 – USD/JPY

After a stellar rally, USDJPY might complete a double top here. This would happen if price breaks support at 108.25 instead of rallying past the potential double tops. A typical approach by pattern traders would be to set a stop entry sell order below the double top support looking for a correction of the last […]

Dollar Slowly Suffocates the Euro

With a little help from central bank rhetoric, both volume and opportunity are making a significant comeback to the forex space. Up until now, the lower-for-longer monetary policy route basically handcuffed the Group of Seven currency pairs to a confined trading range over the past 18 months. Presently, with the possibility of a significant divergence […]

Dollar’s 11th Week Advance Looking Troubled as Fed Commentary Mixed

Talking Points: Dollar’s 11th Week Advance Looking Troubled as Fed Commentary Mixed Euro Tumbles after ECB President Draghi Reiterates Easing Commitment British Pound: Traders Await BoE Gov Carney’s First Post-Referendum Speech Dollar’s 11th Week Advance Looking Troubled as Fed Commentary Mixed Eleven straight weeks. That is the bullish run that the US Dollar is trying […]

ECB Headache Now a Migraine after PMIs

Risk trading strategies found temporary relief overnight before the European session opened from the world’s second-largest economy. Better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data has reversed some of yesterday’s market negativity that followed the weekend comments made by China’s Finance Minister Lou Jiwei who said his country would not amend its economic policies, despite the emergence of soft […]

Euro May Overlook Geman IFO Survey Absent an Upside Surprise

Talking Points: Euro May Look Past German IFO Data Absent Significant Upside Surprise NZ Dollar Corrects Higher, Yen Gains as Asian Stocks Follow Wall St Lower See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Expectations call for a […]

British Pound Gains, Yen Falls as Scotland Votes Against UK Secession

Talking Points: British Pound Trades Broadly Higher as Scotland Opts Against UK Secession Japanese Yen Under Pressure as Firming Risk Appetite Sinks Haven Demand See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The British Pond outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.9 percent on average against its leading counterparts, […]

Will Scotland Be Penny Wise and Pound Foolish?

It has been a long time coming, but Scottish nationalists finally get to vote for independent statehood today. A “Yes” or “No” win cannot be guaranteed, but rest assured, the market will need to brace itself for some sharp sterling swings no matter the outcome. Rumor, innuendo, and early exit polls will be keeping global […]

Top Trade Idea For September 18th, 2014 – USDJPY

This week I am joining the bulls party in the jpy pairs and the analysis above is about the all important jpy pair of them all: the usdjpy. The thing is that what started after breaking that prolonged contracting triangle looks to be the third wave of an impulsive move and, in order for a […]

Dollar Checks Back in Anticipation of FOMC Decision

Talking Points: Dollar Checks Back in Anticipation of FOMC Decision British Pound Volatility but Noncommittal After Inflation Report Euro Traders Will React to Fed and then ECB Dollar Checks Back in Anticipation of FOMC Decision This week’s top event risk is upon us. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting carries deeper meaning than just a […]

Dollar and Sterling Get Direction

Strap in and be prepared for opportunities, as this is a big week for investors and capital markets. Geopolitical events, a few central bank meetings, and the Scottish referendum are supporting the recent uptick to both volume and volatility, especially in the forex asset class. The U.S. dollar remains king, as both the currency and […]

Yen Gains, Aussie Dollar Falls on Soft Chinese Economic Data

Talking Points: Yen Gains, Aussie Dollar Falls as Soft Chinese News-Flow Sinks Risk Appetite US Industrial Production, Empire Survey Data to Inform Fed Policy Outlook See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading […]

Dollar Looks to Fed to Secure Strongest Run in Half a Century

Talking Points: Dollar Looks to Fed to Secure Strongest Run in Half a Century British Pound Edges Higher as Market Digests Shift in Scotland Sentiment Euro Focus Still on ECB Policy, But Sovereign Bond Yields are Rising… Dollar Looks to Fed to Secure Strongest Run in Half a Century Friday is opening once again green […]

USD/JPY May See 110.00, USD/CAD 1.1200 Over Coming Weeks

Talking Points: USDJPY breakout valid above NFP swing low of 104.65/70. USDCAD breakout, inv H&S begins above 1.1100. Euro Punished by ECB’s New Measures as QE Remains on Hold The US Dollar has mainly benefited against the European currencies the past several weeks – it may be time for gains to develop elsewhere. The most […]

EUR Supported By Plummeting Pound

Fleet-footed Mario Draghi deserves the plaudits for the aggressive actions undertaken last week. The European Central Bank’s (ECB) surprise rate cut has led to some serious volume spikes in forex trading — volume and volatility provides opportunity, something that has been amiss for far too long with this asset class. More importantly, the ECB chief […]

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