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Top trade idea for April 29th, 2016 – USD/JPY

Contrarian traders lead a miserable existence. Around half the time, their trading peers consider them eccentric. Some of the time they suffer as fools, and at times are cast as dangerous lunatics. This is the price of defying popular opinion. However, for a few days a month, or perhaps a few weeks a year, they’re […]

APAC Currency Corner – Disappointment reigns

USDJPY remains the primary focus after the pair fell off a cliff on the back of yesterday’s Bank of Japan inactivity while Yen buying dominated the stage. There was also subordinate interest in buying the Aussie in the BoJ aftermath. However, in late New York trade risk assets, including the Aussie, took a turn for […]

APAC Currency Corner – The Great Central Bank Debate

Over the past day, markets have mostly entered a holding pattern as investors await the outcome of the latest Fed and BoJ policy meetings.  Despite the Bank of Japan hogging the limelight, it’s the Fed that holds the cards and their presence as de facto World Central Banker will be front and centre. The Mighty […]

Top trade idea for April 27th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

The focus for much of the week has been on the FOMC statement, which is understandable given the lack of any clear trend for the dollar and especially for the EUR/USD pair. As it has turned out, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected but in a surprise move it has removed from its […]

Caution In FX Ahead Of Rate Announcements

Five things the markets are talking about. This is a big week for capital markets on the Central Bank front. Both the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) hold policy meetings. While the Fed is expected to maintain the status quo, Governor Kuroda could ease given the fallout from the […]

APAC Currency Corner – Bumpy ride this week

We have a very heavy central bank dominated calendar this week, with the Fed, RBNZ, and BoJ all in action. While most of the focus will centre on possible policy action from the BoJ, traders will be looking for forward guidance from both the Fed and RBNZ. So strap in tight we are likely in […]

BoJ Eyeing Negative Rates On Loans

Having adopted a negative interest rate on some excess reserves to penalize financial institutions for leaving money idle, the Bank of Japan may consider helping them lend by offering a negative rate on some loans, according to people familiar with talks at the BOJ. Such a discussion could happen in conjunction with any decision to […]

APAC Currency Corner-Rollercoaster

Rollercoaster ride for Aussie A sharp U-turn in WTI oil prices was all it took to send the Aussie spiralling downwards after touching a 10-month peak. Oil prices swung frantically overnight as oil traders played off bullish comments from the International Energy Agency (IEA) which said non-OPEC production would fall this year by the most […]

APAC Currency Corner – Oil moves markets

The relentless risk rally on the back of surging global equities, compounded by oil prices outperforming, bolstered both Aussie and Kiwi sentiment overnight. Retracing moves from the Doha fallout, in furious activity, the WTI futures (May 2016) tested intraday highs of 41.53 and settled in convincing fashion near the 41.00 handle. However , Brent Crude […]

FX5: China Sees Red, UK Jobs Disappoint

Five things the markets are talking about Are things beginning to cool down stateside? Yesterday’s data showed that U.S housing starts fell more than expected in March (-8.8% to their lowest level since last October) and permits for future construction hit a one-year low (-7.7%). Nevertheless, the disappointing data could not dent regional bourses rise, […]

FX5: Investor Risk Appetite On The Rise

Five things the markets are talking about Are investors back to trading risk? U.S markets started this week under modest pressure after oil producers failed to reach a deal on an output freeze in Doha over the weekend. Naturally, the energy complex started the week gapping lower, along with the commodity sensitive bloc of currencies. […]

APAC Currency Corner – No Doha

It’s all about the sticky subject of oil today. The failure of any capping agreement in Sunday’s Doha crunch talks has hammered oil prices and led to a somewhat negative sentiment across Asia today. The collapse of the oil production freeze summit has caused a wave of selling in the whole commodity block of  currencies at […]

APAC-CURRENCY CORNER – CHINA RETAIL SURPRISE

Aussie dollar resilient The Aussie received support from yesterday’s Australian employment data. The uptick in price action came despite what seems to be an “ annual “  pre-budget debt rating warning issued by rating agencies .  . The strong employment print has taken some sting out of near-term rate cut expectations. But despite some constructive […]

APAC Currency Corner – Commodities on Fire

Aussie Dollar The Aussie was on fire overnight. Traders took cues from firming global equities with commodities prices gaining a foothold amid a broad commodity rally. It was a classic risk-on rally. Iron ore touched the USD 60.00 per ton handle as traders speculated on a pickup in demand from Chinese steel mills. China’s economy […]

U.S Retail Sales Unexpectedly Falls

Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in March, raising concern consumer spending is losing momentum. The 0.3 percent drop in purchases followed little change the prior month, Commerce Department figures showed Wednesday in Washington. The median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.1 percent gain. The decrease was led by the […]

APAC Currency Corner -NO MAS

Focus on MAS – USDSGD I do not expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to make any changes to its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) at its bi-annual policy meeting. This likelihood comes despite dismal economic growth prospects and inflation running below target due to slumping oil prices. A few […]

Record Bullish Bets Fail To Advance Yen

Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted bullish-yen wagers to the highest since at least 1992 as Japan’s currency struggled to extend its gains into a seventh day. The yen advanced to a fresh 17-month high earlier on Monday after speculators defied rhetoric from Japanese authorities aimed at checking its advance. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide […]

APAC Currency Corner-Risk Off Redux

Risk-off redux Risk sentiment is back-peddling once again. Last night we saw declines in both EU and US equities, and investors are seeking shelter under the USD 10-Year Treasury umbrella which saw its yield close below 1.70%. The flight to safe investments has left currency markets treading water amid another wave of “risk off’’ fever. […]

FX5: EM Currency Pairs Play Catch Up

Five things the markets are talking about Global equity markets are taking back some of Thursday’s losses as we enter the final trading session of the week. With safe haven asset prices dominating proceedings, dealers continue to watch the yen closely, waiting for the proverbial ‘other shoe’ to make a direct material impact. With Japanese […]

USDJPY – Yen Surge Showing No Sign of Abating

The yen has been flying again on Thursday, after the prospect of intervention in the currency markets to stem its appreciation was played down by a number of officials including Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The comments in recent days has sent USDJPY into something of a freefall, first smashing through 1.11 – a key level […]

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