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Post-FOMC Levels Holding USD for Now; JPY-crosses Begin Breakdown

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index struggling at post-FOMC low, daily 34-EMA. USDJPY wipes out below 119.25, contrary to March seasonality. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. The Japanese Yen is defying its seasonal tendancies right now, which could set up an interesting month of April. Typically, at least over the past […]

Dollar Bulls Squeezed by European Data

Fed’s normalization data dependent Dollar longs feel the squeeze Eurozone PMIs continue slow recovery EUR bulls break €1.1000 look for €1.1200 The dollar bull has been suffering greatly since last week’s dovish Federal Open Market Committee meet. The market’s conviction that the USD can rally from here has certainly taken a pounding, but they have […]

US Dollar, Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Dents Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: US Dollar, British Pound May Fall as Soft CPI Figures Dent Rate Hike Bets Limited ECB Policy Impact to Contain Euro Follow-Through on PMI Data See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App February’s UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation […]

Top Trade Idea For March 20th, 2015 – AUD/JPY

Fashions in trading come and go, and many traders are shaped by their biggest wins and losses. This may explain why share market traders tend towards bearishness. Stocks go up by the stairs, and down in the elevator, meaning share traders often get their largest and fastest wins in falling markets. These happy experiences bias […]

EUR’s Bearish Picture Hardly Dented

Fed’s hesitance obliterates soft bull positions Fed’s data dependency a boon for volatility FOMC full employment parameters change EUR seeks Greek guidance Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has been a dollar bull’s friend for a very long time, but yesterday she took the first step to break that symbiotic relationship. Whereas investors have for the […]

FOMC EUR Squeeze Gathers Momentum

USD bulls don’t require patience DXY has room on the downside BoJ scales back on inflation RBA opens up both barrels It’s no real surprise to see that major currency pairs keep to tight trading ranges ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee outcome. The calls on whether or not U.S. policy members will vote […]

Stage Set for EUR Short Covering Move Around FOMC?

Talking Points: EURUSD breach of 1.0680/85 sets move towards 1.0905. EURGBP H4 MACD move through signal line signals ST bottom. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. This week’s FOMC reading is far and away the most important event on the calendar for the EURUSD, and even if the Fed drops […]

Will the Fed Omit Patience and Push the Euro to Parity?

Investor’s focus on FOMC Wednesday Will the Fed drop “patient” from its statement? Euro parity sooner rather than later Fed needs to give investors time to adjust The Federal Reserve will take center stage this week. It is not the only central bank that is expected to have an impact, but it will be the […]

Week in FX – Dollar Parity Beckons as Euro Steadies

Euro on course to hit parity with USD S. retail sales data disappoints Investors await next week’s FOMC meet This past week was supposed to be relatively quiet in the currency markets. However, it was not to be once the European Central Bank (ECB) chief outlined when the eurozone’s quantitative easing (QE) program would begin. […]

EUR’s Slow Grind to Parity

Dollar strength concerns markets Currency moves is doing the Fed’s work European demand for U.S. assets intensifies China needs further policy support The global rate differential argument continues to have the USD racking up fresh multiyear highs against its peers. It’s the same capital market story, just a different day, and in some cases a […]

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Trends Firm; EUR/JPY, USD/CAD Test Breakout Levels

Talking Points: Trend structure for EUR-pairs clear: watch 8-EMA and H4 MACD. USDCAD moves to February 24 swing high in symmetrical triangle. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. On day two of the ECB’s new QE program, the Euro has taken a spill right from the get-go of European trading. […]

Preview for NFPs and Trade Setups in USD-pairs

Talking Points: EURUSD momentum firmly lower, in ‘sell the rally’ mode. USDCAD breakout requires patience – in either direction. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Friday, March 6, 2015. The recent swell of volatility will reach its stunning conclusion for the week today at 08:30 EST/12:30 GMT, when arguably the most important data release for […]

Top Trade Idea For March 6th, 2015 – EUR/JPY

It’s the best of trades, and the worst of trades. The currency wars rage on, as central banks attempt to pillage each other’s domestic demand in an environment of competitive currency devaluation. The fighting is fiercest on the Eastern front, where the united forces of the European Central Bank are smashing into the imperialist resources […]

Will Super Mario Stand and Deliver on QE?

Will Draghi change market’s assessment of QE? QE program details expected USD on a high as European yields tank EUR positioning pushes currency to new lows Markets are waiting to scrutinize European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi’s every word in a couple of hours. Investors and dealers want to know if he will say […]

Top trade idea for March 5th, 2015 – EURJPY

Hunting the second wave of a falling wedge pattern and this kind of correction should take the most time in the whole five waves structure and, more importantly, it should break the previous lows. This means we should see a move below the 130 level, where the previous 1st wave ends and it also means […]

Trade Setups in EUR-crosses and Expectations for ECB Meeting

Talking Points: Momentum remains firmly lower in EURGBP, EURUSD. ECB checklist: Greece; modalities of QE; economic projections. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Thursday, March 5, 2015. The ECB meeting today presents itself as both a placeholder and a weigh-station of sorts. As a placeholder, we already know that the ECB is moving forward with […]

USD/CAD – RBA Decision has the Loonie Bear Concerned

RBA keeps rates on hold Abe’s Aide guides Yen higher Will CAD’s GDP influence BoC Poloz? Market to focus on NFP Capital markets are finally on the move albeit slowly. Record low bond yields, record high global equities indices, and strained forex ranges are beginning to provide more trading opportunities in these first few days […]

U.S Dollar Dominant in Deluge of Data

PBoC surprises Capital Markets with a cut AUD to be kept busy by RBA announcement Eurozone deflation pressures ease US jobs heading towards full employment The Peoples Bank of China managed to get the jump on Capital Markets over the weekend. Chinese policyholders cut interest rates by -25bps for the second time in less than […]

Too Early to Call a Bottom in EUR-crosses Despite CPI Data

Talking Points: EURUSD trades back above 1.1200 after Feb EZ CPI beats. Technical structures of EURGBP, EURJPY remain bearish. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Monday, March 2, 2015. Better than expected headline inflation data from the Euro-Zone in February comes as a welcomed development for the economically-beleaguered region, although it does not come as […]

Week In FX – Fed Gives Nothing Away, Dollar in Demand

Fed sticks to lower for longer S CPI an excuse to buy more dollars Fed September hike fully priced in Central Banks rate announcements dominate proceedings As to be expected, the Fed dominated this past week. Although the markets did not get the anticipated price moves when Yellen was giving her testimony on the ‘hill’, […]

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