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Shooting Stars to Falling Stars

Markets  are focusing on the US economic data flow and the latest musing from the ECB ECB Draghi did more to cloud the picture rather than provide any clarity into the ECB thoughts. Allowing committee members more breathing room, which offers more opportunity to view the market reaction to the ECB tapering “sounding balloon “ […]

Market Focus on Commodity Currencies

Australian Dollar Rockets Higher  Equity markets have posted further gains over the past 24 hours, spurred on by the rally in oil markets when WTI came within a hair of $ 52.00  per barrel, posting a 15-month high at 51.94 on the back of the massive inventory draw on the DOE data. Commodity currencies, championed […]

Entering the Risk Event Vortex

US CPI data overnight was a little bit weaker than expected overnight with the headline rate on consensus at 0.3% month on month, while the core reading was slightly softer at 0.1 $ vs. .2 % expected month on month. The USD sold off initially on the core print, but quickly retraced, given the volatile […]

Lull Before the Storm

It’s been an incredibly quiet start to the week as most currencies remain rangebound, but don’t let this sense of calm fool you, markets may be poised to explode. There is a  multitude of macro themes dominating the current Forex landscape, a Fed hike, ECB, and  BoJ tapering fears, and of course the US Elections. There […]

Seeking Policy Direction

Dr Yellen’s Speech  On the surface, Dr. Yellen’s speech could be construed that the Fed is exploring new excuses to keep interest rates lower for longer, hinting that the economy has ‘a little more room to run’ than previously thought, but it is more likely a tactic to calm markets as we draw closer to […]

US Data, Fed and Earnings in Focus

Focus will very much be on the US as we see out the end of the week. Recent moves in the pound and oil have overshadowed the US a little bit but today, it should take centre stage once again. The US retail sales number stands out for me as being the key release today. […]

APAC Corner: China Data Disappoints

Disappointing trade data from China this morning saw Asia equities marked lower with a knock-on weaker USD in the G10 space. China’s trade data showed exports falling to their lowest levels in six months this morning. Import growth also missed to the downside, both in USD and CNY terms. 10:00 *(CN) CHINA SEPT TRADE BALANCE […]

Top trade idea for October 13th, 2016 – USDJPY

The USDJPY pair enjoyed quite a nice ride in the NFP week as it rose almost vertical. Such a move is typical for the pair as in the last year’s expectations were that the NFP is actually going to be pretty solid. To some extent, Friday’s release confirmed that. However, from a technical point of […]

Top trade idea for October 12th, 2015 – USD/JPY

The dollar goes from strength to strength as market participants grow more confident in foreseeing a rate rise in the US before the year is out. If the FOMC’s last policy meeting minutes, due to be published later on today, convey a more hawkish tone than what the market is expecting then this will only […]

ZEW, Fed, Oil, GBP and Yen in Focus Today

European equity markets are expected to open a little softer on Tuesday, with traders continuing to eye moves in oil, the pound and the yen, as well as the latest economic sentiment surveys from the eurozone and Germany. The pound appeared to find some stability on Monday following the flash crash on Friday and yet […]

USDJPY – First Bullish Confirmation Achieved

The dollar has spent 2016 in a downtrend against the yen but has taken a bullish turn over the last few trading sessions, breaking through the ichimoku cloud on the daily chart and above the 55 and 89-day simple moving averages.This in itself is a very bullish move but it will become increasingly so if […]

APAC FX – Sterling Flash-Crash Starts Non-Farm friday

Well, the start of the Asia session has been anything but quiet, with GBPUSD suffering an 8% flash crash only to rally 6% just as quickly. More on this in a moment. Elsewhere the USD rally continues unabated as the market builds to the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) announcement this evening. A big number will in […]

APAC FX: USD Reigns Supreme as Pound and Gold Fold.

Some life as been injected in markets overnight, as broad USD strength sees a number of ranges finally broken to inject some life into the start of Q4. It seems a confluence of different factors have come together to lift the USD and the currency markets from their self-induced range trading coma of the last […]

Sterling in the Spotlight as Asia Starts the Week

Trading in Asia is subdued today with China on holiday all week. The focus has been in GBP this morning with Theresa May announces that Britain will trigger Article 50 around March 2017 with a full exit of the EU by 2019. This has seen the GBP/USD under pressure this morning.GBP bears may be once […]

Too Big to Fail Redux

A combination of Financial Sector Risk in Europe, Geopolitical concerns, and Federal Reserve Board policy debate have injected a degree of apprehension into markets.Moreover, while WTI continues to hold on to gains, not unexpectedly, the latest OPEC oil patch musings are taking an inferior position as traders kick the oil can down the road until […]

ASIA FX – Oil Leaves USD/ASIA On The Boil.

The aftermath of the surprise OPEC agreement is being felt across Asia today. But in different ways. OPEC pulled a proverbial rabbit out of the hat overnight, with a preliminary agreement to cut production albeit by a minuscule amount. As they say, though, “its the thought that matters” and crude duly rocketed 6% in New York […]

OPEC Agreement in Principle

The big news in markets this morning is that OPEC has agreed to a preliminary deal to cut production. After endless hours of discussion in Algeria, OPEC reached a consensus that a reduction in oil production is necessary. Market share continues to be the contentious issue despite OPEC’s member countries agreeing on a production limit […]

Bonds, Stocks and Dollar Wary of Trump/Clinton Debate

Five things the markets are talking about Investors’ focus now shifts to the U.S presidential race, which begins this evening (Sept 26, Oct 9 and 19) at Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY at 9pm EDT. Up to this point, the various asset classes have not really being weighing in on the election outcome, but today should […]

The Great Debate

As we enter the new week, Central Bank Policy qualm has significantly reduced for now. However, the US election risk hovers on the horizon for markets with the first general election debate of the 2016 presidential campaign set for tonight.  Given the highly polarizing and politically divisive cast of characters, could the drama be any […]

NZD: Kiwi’s Wings Get Clipped

The New Zealand Dollar has had a difficult end to the week. Being heavily sold against most of its major counterparts. However, the longer term charts and underlying macro situation mean the picture is not as clear-cut as it seems. New Zealand has been somewhat of a darling recently. A purring economy, an excellent rugby […]

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