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Will Jackson Hole Be A Currency Event?

There’s chatter in the market that the two-day central bank symposium getting underway in Jackson Hole, Wyo., today could be a currency event, another type of Plaza Accord. Up until now, the market had been solely on the lookout for any hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s presentation at the forum tomorrow to […]

EURJPY upside looking towards key inside trendline

The recent downturn in EURJPY has been reversed, with price now rising towards a major trendline. Should this trendline provide a spark, this could be the eighth  time that this same line has held. The weekly chart shows that this inside trendline has been absolutely key to price action for over a year, providing both […]

Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks

Talking Points: Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks British Pound Surprised by BoE Hawks, But Doesn’t Turn Euro Traders Ready for Another Round of Economic Data Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks Between two days of key event risk, it seemed that the US Dollar was due a period of moderation. However, this […]

Top Trade Idea For August 20th,2014 – USD/JPY

USDJPY: navigating central bank risk The Jackson Hole conference of central bankers may not be everyone’s idea of a barrel of laughs, but it can be big news for your portfolio. In the past, central bankers have used these speeches to announce changes in monetary policy; this is where Ben Bernanke first announced the prospect […]

USDOLLAR Clears Resistance but for How Long?

Talking Points: EURUSD back-to-back inverted hammers, inside days = coiling. USDCAD could fall to 1.0815 support again. August is a seasonally favorable month for the US Dollar in the QE era. The US Dollar has had a strong run over the past few weeks, with the bull flag originating on July 31 producing new highs […]

Short-EUR Position Plays Require Patience

New dynamics are now entering the fray. Prior to this week, capital markets were beginning to buy into the notion the Bank of England (BoE) would initiate a rate hike as early as the fourth quarter. A day and a couple of reports later, the market is focusing on the need for further stimulus to […]

Will the Euro Find Fuel for a Rebound in German 2Q GDP Report?

Talking Points: Euro May Bounce Absent a Major Disappointment on German GDP Print Yen Falls as Asian Stocks Advance, NZ Dollar Gains on Retail Sales Data See Economic News Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The preliminary set of second-quarter German GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Output is […]

GBP Flees the Charging Bulls

Volatility in the forex market space has been in short supply throughout this year. If anything, it has been regionally contained by central bank policies despite the uptick in both geopolitical and economic event risks. Sustainable forex volatility will only occur with greater Group of 10 rate divergence, or in other words, varying degrees of […]

British Pound Volatility Risk High as BoE Updates Rate Outlook

Talking Points: Dollar Weighs Cross Currents Against Domestic Data British Pound Volatility Risk High as BoE Updates Rate Outlook Euro: Investor Sentiment Collapses, Will Stalled Growth Complete the Picture? Dollar Weighs Cross Currents Against Domestic Data An attempt by the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) to break free of its two-week range […]

Top Trade Idea for August 13th 2014 – USD/JPY

A few weeks ago, we raised the possibility that USDJPY could see a breakout from its 7-month descending triangle pattern (see “Time for USDJPY Traders to Wake Up?” for more). A few days later, the pair broke out of the pattern, eventually running up to 103.00 before losing steam and pulling back to 101.50 last […]

EUR’s Breakdown Contained by Options and GDP

Geopolitical concerns are not going away; they are trying to move to the background, while remaining within easy reach. The 18-member single unit has been negatively tied to both weaker corporate earnings and economic data in recent weeks. The morning’s European focus has been on German economic sentiment. With Russian actions continuing to weigh on […]

Forex Looking For Its Next Clue

Modest risk is being applied across the various asset classes, with investors believing that major political concerns that drove stocks lower, and bond prices and the dollar higher last week have abated. The market continues to distinguish between the ‘humanitarian crises’ in Gaza and Iraq and the Ukraine conflict, which has far more potential to […]

Will GBPJPY upside be shortlived?

The GBPJPY pair has been selling off in the past week following a major downside break. A gap open today has shown a more bullish start to the week. However, is this likely to spark a more protracted resurgence or will such strength be shortlived? 1. Previous triangle breakout led to new found support, bringing […]

Yen Pulls Back as Risk Appetite Firms, Dollar Eyeing Fischer Comments

Talking Points: Yen Falls, Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise Amid Risk Appetite Recovery US Dollar Looking to Comments from Fed’s Fischer for Guidance See Economic Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The safe-haven Japanese Yen narrowly underperformed while the sentiment-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars proved best-supported as risk appetite recovered at […]

EUR’s Noose Tightens

It’s not a surprise to the forex landscape that market movement remains somewhat beholden to central bank rate announcements, and less so to geopolitical and fundamental risks. This week we still have two of the biggest central banks to report: the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE). What is currently happening […]

USDJPY seeking to find support upon major trendline

The USDJPY pair saw major upside following a breakout above a key trend-line almost two weeks ago. This has brought about a more bullish outlook for many and with yet another major trend-line having been taken out, it seems that we are seeing a period of bullish consolidation which has been testing that recent level […]

USDOLLAR Breakout Valid Above 10495; AUD/USD Weak Under 0.9310

Talking Points: EURUSD bearish below 1.3475 but likely stuck pre-ECB. USDJPY holds former resistance, AUDUSD struggles at support. August forex seasonality in QE era supports a stronger US Dollar. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) retains its bullish stance despite the weak selloff seen after the July Nonfarm Payrolls report. The US labor […]

EUR’s Fall from Grace Put on Hold until NFP

The forex market has had a little bit of everything thrown at it in the past 24-hours. It looks like an asset class that wants to make up for lost time in a hurry. Finally, fundamental and technical themes are beginning to join the dots that both volatility and volume, in the current low-rate environment, […]

USD/JPY Fueling Broader USD Breakout; EUR/USD Weak Under 1.3400

Talking Points: EURUSD denied at 1.3400 after Euro-Zone CPI. USDCAD looks for 1.0954 before pullback. July forex seasonals in QE era still working against greenback, however. US Treasury yields have turned higher, and the relationship between weaker bond prices and a stronger US Dollar is starting to emerge. Whereas the 20-day correlation between the DXY […]

Top Trade Idea For July 31st, 2014 – USDJPY

Bullish break for the usdjpy pair as it is benefiting from better than expected US data (from a fundamental point of view) and a contracting triangle that broke higher (from a technical point of view). The fact that this contracting triangle is on the daily chart should be taken seriously as the b-d trend line […]

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