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EUR/USD, GBP/USD into Trend Support with FOMC Minutes Due

Talking Points: EURUSD snaps uptrend, heads to former resistance near $1.1050. GBPUSD holding April 13 uptrend after BoE minutes earlier. See the May forex seasonality report. The US Dollar is attempting at carving out a bottom after a five-week downtrend, but it faces a very legitimate test today when the April FOMC minutes are released. […]

These Conditions Need to be Met Before USDOLLAR Bottoms

Talking Points: EURUSD, GBPUSD slide back from recent highs. USDOLLAR Index still in counter-trend, bearish condition. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite a rebound that’s materialized the past 24-hours, it’s still too early to call a bottom in the USDOLLAR Index. As EURUSD puts in a truncated top by failing to reach its channel […]

USDOLLAR Index Losses May Have Further to Run

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index achieves head & shoulders target of 11650/60. January swing low near 11587 now in focus. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite achieving its head & shoulders topping target, there is evidence the greenback may remain under pressure in the days ahead. The USDOLLAR Index has evolved into more of a […]

Top Trade Idea for May 13th, 2015 – AUD/JPY

Top trade idea: AUD/JPY The AUD/JPY currency pair is catching our attention today as it is peeking above a key resistance level at 95.95. As can be seen from the chart, this level had offered strong resistance at least three times in recent past, so the fact that it is now broken it could turn […]

USDOLLAR Triangle Lingers as EUR/USD Breaks its ST Uptrend

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index remains in symmetrical triangle post-NFPs. EURUSD and GBPUSD head in opposite directions. See the May forex seasonality report. The April US jobs report on Friday was a bit of a mixed report – good, not great, and certainly with some lacking areas – but it might just be good enough to […]

Trade Setups in USD-pairs Around April US NFPs

Talking Points: EURUSD restests daily 8-EMA, support since April 23. AUDUSD, USDCAD immersed in triangle consolidations. See the May forex seasonality report. The components of the USDOLLAR Index aren’t moving in lockstep, offering multiple opportunities for trade depending on today’s jobs report outcome. See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD […]

Top Trade Idea for May 8th, 2015 – EUR/JPY

As the weekly chart below shows, the Euro has struggled to get past resistance around 136.00 against the Yen this week. This level has acted as significant support or resistance over the past 15 months. The daily chart is showing signs of completing an “M” or double top style formation which would provide a medium […]

Wild Price Action Expected as Traders Eye U.S. Jobs Report

Yellen stock value comments see red Soft French 10-year auction supports higher yields ADP: A prelude to soft NFP Higher U.S. rates not supporting dollar< This week has certainly lived up to expectations. Market moves were always going to be big due to the amount of event risk that investors are being exposed to; however, […]

Outside Influences Weigh Heavily on FX Markets

Talking Points: EURUSD driven by ECB’s QE unwind, NFP speculation. GBPUSD in holding pattern as market awaits election results. See the May forex seasonality report. Although FX markets have been behaving in a fairly clear technical manner the past few days (as evidenced by the clean unfolding of the USDOLLAR Index head & shoulders pattern), […]

Top trade idea for May 7th, 2015 – USDJPY

There’s no better pair to trade ahead of the NFP release than the usdjpy as it is highly dependent on what is happening on the US jobs market. From a technical perspective, still looking for all the waves that you see in the chart above to be corrective waves, and this is happening only in […]

Bund Yields Provide EUR Support

Picking EUR tops a painful exercise German bund yields on the cusp of pushing higher Sterling walks alone, not fussed by fundamentals Crude surges to six-month highs Currently, there are a lot of moving parts in capital markets that are keeping investors on their toes. If it’s not exploding sovereign bond yields or new yearly […]

USDOLLAR Index Exhibiting Tendency of a Bearish Market

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index fails at neckline in head & shoulders pattern. EURUSD flagging, double bottom valid towards $1.1567. See the May forex seasonality report. The US Dollar may have enjoyed a modest rebound over the past week, but there’s sufficient evidence to deem that the greenback is engaged in a bearish market mindset in […]

Putting USD Correction into Perspective Post-GDP, Pre-NFPs

Talking Points: EURUSD trades down to former resistance turned support, daily 8-EMA. USDJPY breakout gathers pace – easiest path forward for USD. See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Tuesday, May 5, 2015. May seasonality calls for US Dollar gains, but Friday’s NFP release will be the ultimate determinant of the buck’s direction. The lingering net-long […]

Top Trade Idea for May 5th, 2015 – USD/JPY

Today’s Top Trade Idea: USDJPY BY ew-forecast.com USDJPY is trading sideways for almost past six months, so we assume that market is in a corrective phase. We see price trading in fourth wave which looks like a triangle pattern. That’s a continuation pattern, which could send price to new highs soon as we can count […]

EUR Supported by Plummeting Sovereign Bond Prices

German Bund Yields disrupt all asset classes Yield backup driven by “hot” money accounts EUR expected to remain better bid through month-end Kiwi Tries to Fly but Crashes Sovereign bonds have been selling off hard over the past two-days as a number of factors send yields higher. For the first time in nearly a month, […]

Yen Gains as Fed Fuels Risk Aversion, NZ Dollar Drops on RBNZ

Talking Points: Yen Gains as Fed Stays the Course on Rate Hike Despite 1Q Slowdown New Zealand Dollar Sinks as RBNZ Opens the Door for Policy Easing Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Momentum in Eurozone Inflation Report The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.5 percent. The move mirrored a sharp […]

Top Trade Idea for April 27th, 2015 – GBP/JPY

(Global FX Club) The GBP/JPY remains in focus to start off this week as the pair slithers its way into a tight congested zone, with resistance located at the 181.00 – 181.90 area, and trend line support around 179.80.  Indeed, last week we called for higher levels in the pair, with a turnaround to follow […]

EUR-crosses Begin to Lose Traction at Start of Week

Talking Points: EURUSD‘s only bullish appeal rooted in stretched positioning. EURGBP, EURJPY technical structures remain fairly weak. See the April forex seasonality report. The Euro has once again started to slip back thanks to its deflating yield appeal and advancement along the path of a funding currency. As the differential between the short-end and the […]

Commodity Dollars Soar After China Cuts Reserve Requirement Ratio

Talking Points: Commodity Dollars Soar After China Issues 100bps RRR Cut for Top Banks Japanese Yen Gains Amid Risk Aversion, Euro Declines on Greece Jitters US Dollar Looks to Dudley Comments to Drive Rates “Liftoff” Speculation The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade after China unexpectedly cut the reserve requirement ratio […]

Will U.S Retail Sales Test New EUR Lows?

Yen looking for cross currency support K. narrowly avoids deflation S. retail sales to test EUR 12-year lows German bunds trade sub-0.14% There comes a time when trading in stretched forex markets, you do need to be patient when trying to pick a winning trade. When bored, most investors tend to disregard both fundamental and […]

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