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Will U.S Retail Sales Test New EUR Lows?

Yen looking for cross currency support K. narrowly avoids deflation S. retail sales to test EUR 12-year lows German bunds trade sub-0.14% There comes a time when trading in stretched forex markets, you do need to be patient when trying to pick a winning trade. When bored, most investors tend to disregard both fundamental and […]

Dollar’s Rising Trend Remains Intact

Equity profit-taking starts the week Chinese export data worries closest trading partners Transitory factors temporarily affect the dollar JPY Crosses Could Hurt Dollar It’s only natural to see some regional bourses slip in early Monday trading after last week’s previous gains. Investors are taking a brief pause from a rally that has carried various equity […]

Pound, Dollar to Rise if UK CPI and US Sales Data Boost Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: British Pound May Rise if Upbeat Core CPI Figures Boost BOE Rate Outlook US Dollar to Extend Advance if Retail Sales Data Drives Fed Rate Hike Bets See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year […]

How Do FOMC Minutes Fit in with USDOLLAR’s Ongoing Triangle?

Talking Points: EURUSD loses post-March FOMC uptrend, but still rangebound. USDCAD back into middle of range after holding C$1.2350/2400. See the April forex seasonality report. The USDOLLAR Index is testing the topside of its triangle resistance as ST indicators turn higher. However, on a day and in a week where the economic calendar (in particular, […]

Dollar Rebound Attempts to Revive Trend as Fed Minutes Massage Rate Speculation

Talking Points: Dollar Rebound Attempts to Revive Trend as Fed Minutes Massage Rate Speculation Euro: Confusion Over Greece Situation Leaves Results in QE Complacency Australian Dollar Rally Limited After RBA Leaves Rate Unchanged Dollar Rebound Attempts to Revive Trend as Fed Minutes Massage Rate Speculation The Dollar was thoroughly trounced Friday after the severe miss […]

US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on FOMC Minutes

Talking Points: US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on March FOMC Meeting Minutes New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Asian Stocks on Firming Risk Appetite See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the […]

US Dollar May Find Greater Catalyst in Jobless Rate vs Payrolls Figure

Talking Points: US Dollar to Rise if Unemployment Rate Drop Stokes Wage Inflation Bets Aussie Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains if US Jobs Data Fuels Risk Aversion Get Access Real-Time FX Markets Commentary with DailyFX on Demand All eyes are on the March set of US Employment in the final hours of the trading […]

Dollar Flat Before U.S. Jobs Report

USD dips before NFP European PMIs fail to disappoint Greece’s time is running out Central banks to rundown EUR reserves further With month-end, quarter-end, and a plethora of equity and forex option expiries now officially out of the way, investors will sit tight and wait for Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) release. Dollar bulls are […]

Record EUR Shorts Looking to IMF for Clues

Beware of short trading week moves BoE on two-month hiatus Look to U.S. jobs for rate clue Beware of weather-related anomalies in NFP With Good Friday making it a holiday-shortened trading week for most currency traders, many would likely prefer to escape this month unscathed to begin the second quarter next week. However, with U.S. […]

Next Leg Lower in EUR-crosses in Focus after Weaker CPI

Talking Points: EURUSD breaks below key $1.0800 support, now eyes $1.0612. EURGBP, EURJPY lose respective uptrends from March lows. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. Short-term technicals are realigning with longer-term bearish inclinations across the EUR-complex. EURUSD’s H4 MACD and Stochastic bearish crossovers have appeared alongside price losing its uptrend […]

Record EUR Shorts Looking to IMF for Clues

Beware of short trading week moves BoE on two-month hiatus Look to U.S. jobs for rate clue Beware of weather-related anomalies in NFP With Good Friday making it a holiday-shortened trading week for most currency traders, many would likely prefer to escape this month unscathed to begin the second quarter next week. However, with U.S. […]

Euro to Look Past German CPI, Focus on Greece Funding Woes

Talking Points: Euro to Look Beyond German CPI, Focus on Greece Developments Aussie, NZ Dollars Drop Amid Commodities-Driven Risk Aversion Access Real-Time FX Markets Analysis with DailyFX on Demand The preliminary set of March’s German CPI figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to register at 0.3 […]

Post-FOMC Levels Holding USD for Now; JPY-crosses Begin Breakdown

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index struggling at post-FOMC low, daily 34-EMA. USDJPY wipes out below 119.25, contrary to March seasonality. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. The Japanese Yen is defying its seasonal tendancies right now, which could set up an interesting month of April. Typically, at least over the past […]

Dollar Bulls Squeezed by European Data

Fed’s normalization data dependent Dollar longs feel the squeeze Eurozone PMIs continue slow recovery EUR bulls break €1.1000 look for €1.1200 The dollar bull has been suffering greatly since last week’s dovish Federal Open Market Committee meet. The market’s conviction that the USD can rally from here has certainly taken a pounding, but they have […]

US Dollar, Pound May Fall as Soft Inflation Dents Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: US Dollar, British Pound May Fall as Soft CPI Figures Dent Rate Hike Bets Limited ECB Policy Impact to Contain Euro Follow-Through on PMI Data See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App February’s UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation […]

Top Trade Idea For March 20th, 2015 – AUD/JPY

Fashions in trading come and go, and many traders are shaped by their biggest wins and losses. This may explain why share market traders tend towards bearishness. Stocks go up by the stairs, and down in the elevator, meaning share traders often get their largest and fastest wins in falling markets. These happy experiences bias […]

EUR’s Bearish Picture Hardly Dented

Fed’s hesitance obliterates soft bull positions Fed’s data dependency a boon for volatility FOMC full employment parameters change EUR seeks Greek guidance Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has been a dollar bull’s friend for a very long time, but yesterday she took the first step to break that symbiotic relationship. Whereas investors have for the […]

FOMC EUR Squeeze Gathers Momentum

USD bulls don’t require patience DXY has room on the downside BoJ scales back on inflation RBA opens up both barrels It’s no real surprise to see that major currency pairs keep to tight trading ranges ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee outcome. The calls on whether or not U.S. policy members will vote […]

Stage Set for EUR Short Covering Move Around FOMC?

Talking Points: EURUSD breach of 1.0680/85 sets move towards 1.0905. EURGBP H4 MACD move through signal line signals ST bottom. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. This week’s FOMC reading is far and away the most important event on the calendar for the EURUSD, and even if the Fed drops […]

Will the Fed Omit Patience and Push the Euro to Parity?

Investor’s focus on FOMC Wednesday Will the Fed drop “patient” from its statement? Euro parity sooner rather than later Fed needs to give investors time to adjust The Federal Reserve will take center stage this week. It is not the only central bank that is expected to have an impact, but it will be the […]

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