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USD at 7-month high against EUR

Despite the holiday shortened trading week, dealers and investors continue to prep for next months two-day FOMC meeting. Divergence in monetary policy remains the theme in FX ahead of several December important central bank meetings. Not surprisingly, the dollar remains on the offensive across the major pairs as short-term U.S rates continue back up in […]

Slow Lift Off Hurts Dollar

FOMC Minutes: “Most participants anticipated that, based on their assessment of the current economic situation and their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, these conditions could well be met by the time of the next meeting” (December 15-16). Minutes gave investors little incentive to add to their long dollar positions: The USD […]

Top trade idea for November 19th, 2015 – EURJPY

The eurjpy pair moved below the 61.8% retracement level and this may be just the consolidation area that we need for a spike higher in what seems to be at least a simple flat. If that is the case, the move to the upside should be an impulsive move, or a five wave structure, so […]

Top trade idea for November 18th, 2015 – Dollar Index

After Monday’s big dollar-bullish move, the foreign exchange market has been relatively mixed over the last 48 hours, not coincidentally mirroring the uncertainty traders are feeling toward future Federal Reserve policy. The widely-watched EUR/USD pairing fell to a fresh 7-month low in the mid-1.0600s before bouncing modestly today, while other European currencies, as well as […]

Top trade idea for November 16th, 2015 – EUR/JPY

Trading opportunities for currency pair: after a gap in the morning, a pinbar formed at 131.30. As part of a correction, a growth to 133.21 can be expected. This idea’s lifetime is just one short week and will become invalid if we see a closing of above 130.64. What’s of interest at the moment? At […]

Will ECB Draghi Provide Today’s FX Clue?

Position adjustments by investors in thin trading conditions have managed to punish the dollar on this Veteran’s Day. The mighty buck has given back some of this week’s gained ground across the board. The EUR printed an intraday six-month low outright yesterday (€1.0682) as the market prepares itself for looser monetary policy from the Eurozone […]

U.S Payrolls Climb Most This Year

Employment in October surged by the most this year, wage growth accelerated and the jobless rate fell to 5 percent, signs of labor-market durability Federal Reserve policy makers are looking for as they consider a year-end boost in borrowing costs. The addition of 271,000 jobs exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists and […]

Top trade idea for November 6th, 2015 – GBP/JPY

The Pound has been contained within a rising trend channel this month. Following yesterday’s comments from BOE Governor, Mark Carney, the Pound is testing channel support for the fourth time. The slow stochastic in the box below the chart shows that GBPJPY approaching support with good downward momentum.  However, it’s still well out of the […]

USDJPY – Looks Increasingly Bullish at Resistance

The dollar has been looking increasingly bullish against the yen over the last couple of weeks but continues to face difficulty when it comes to breaking through 121.50.What’s interesting is that while we have seen numerous failed attempts to break through this level, each time it has failed, the pair has made new higher lows, […]

Top trade idea for November 4th, 2015 – USD/JPY

For USD/JPY traders, it’s been a particularly trying two and a half months. Since late August, the pair has carved out a tight 300-pip range between 118.50 and 121.50, never closing beyond this zone despite central bank decisions on both sides of the Pacific, a series of disappointing US jobs reports, and a raft of […]

Carry Trades Dominate FX

Currently, many of the major currency pairs remain confined to a tight trading range, and owing to the lack of intraday volatility, investors are required to be fleet of foot when looking for meaningful returns. Last month saw the return of the “carry trade”(+4.7% in Oct. vs. -8.3% in August when China devalued the yuan). […]

BoJ Backs Down, While China’s Child Policy Supports NZD

Japanese household spending fell again last month BoJ pushes back timing of inflation target China’s scrapping one child policy supports Kiwi Will today’s PCE indicator support the Fed’s tightening plans? After the Fed highlighted this week that December could be the most likely meeting for their first rate liftoff in nearly a decade, the Bank […]

Possible Isn’t Probable For The Fed Or BoJ

Next weeks non-farm payroll (NFP) release only gets bigger after yesterday’s FOMC communiqué. The Fed’s perfectly hedged statement was a tad more hawkish than many had been expecting and now leaves the possibility of a December rate hike on the table by specifically noting that the Fed will be watching the data and then decide […]

Follow the Leader: Apple, Oil to Cue Global Markets

Summary: A heavy week of data remains for global markets, with numerous Central Bank announcements and data prints, and Apple reports earnings after-the-bell. Apple can be seen as an indicator for Chinese growth, as this has become a key market for the company and it’s one of the first looks investors will get at recent […]

Diverging Central Banks Debate Downs Dollar

With the European Central Bank (ECB) and People’s Bank of China (PBoC) dominating proceedings last week, central banks again proved their ability to move markets. ECB’s Draghi made it clear in his ‘dovish’ press conference last Thursday that the governing council stands ready to adjust its asset purchase program (QE) according to their needs. Draghi […]

Risk Trends Vulnerable Ahead of Heavy Data Week

Summary: Chinese equity markets spent most of the session treading water after Friday’s surprise interest rate and RRR-cut after Asian markets had closed. Euro down-trends appear to be back against most major currencies after last week’s announcement from the European Central Bank. The Bank of Japan takes the spotlight this week, as many are expecting […]

Top trade idea for October 22nd, 2015 – EURJPY

This double combination on the eurjpy pair needs to break lower and be retraced minimum 61.8% as it is most likely the leg of a contracting triangle of a bigger degree and this implies bearish implications for the cross. Ahead of the ECB meeting today the tone the Euro is trading with is not bullish […]

Top trade idea for October 21st, 2015 – EUR JPY

My wife’s grandfather lives alone. That probably seems like an unusual way to begin an article about European monetary policy and EUR/JPY, but bear with me. Whenever we visit Walter, he is so overjoyed to have someone to converse with that he’ll eagerly ask for updates about the groundhogs in our yard, our new toaster, […]

USDOLLAR Index Stalls, EUR/USD Falls as Traders Await ECB

Talking Points: EUR/USD continues slip from end of last week. AUD/USD remains coiled in symmetrical triangle. See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness. Traders may find that the next few days for EUR/USD (and the Euro more broadly) may be more frustrating that what’s transpired the past month. Since the September […]

AUD/USD, USD/JPY Reverse, but USD Decline May Not be Over Yet

Talking Points: AUDUSD consolidating in a new, ST symmetrical triangle. EURUSD slipping back; ECB next week may try to limit gains. See the October forex seasonality report that favors US Dollar weakness. Data has been disappointing for the US Dollar overall, even if yesterday’s jobless claims and US CPI figures helped lift the buck. In […]

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