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GBP/JPY Breaking Above a Triangle; 129.00 is Critical Resistance

Forex Technical Update Prev: GBP/JPY breaks Below 127.00, Signals Downtrend Continuation; EW Count Update (7/18) GBP/JPY Failed 127.00 Breakdown, Triangle Breakout Attempt: – The break below 127.00 failed to confirm as pullbacks contained the market in a triangle congestion. – The 4H chart shows the market attempting to break above the triangle resistance. However, the momentum reflected by the RSI reading remains bearish if it fails to sustain a break above 60, and returns back below 40. Bullish Scenario: – To the upside, the 61.8% 128.50 and 129.00 levels area important resistance.

Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD  EURUSD closed @ 14215 which was ABOVE the open and was within prior day’s trading range. The High was 25 pips from Precise Trader’s Res Tgt 1 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader’s Sup Zone 1. The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish and the Price is Within the MA, so the Bears […]

GBP/JPY Breaks Below 127.00 Signaling Downtrend Continuation; EW Count Update

Forex Technical Update Prev: GBP/JPY: Elliott Wave Count in Short and Medium Term – Double Zig Zag (7/13) GBP/JPY Correction Rally Complete; Breakout to the Downside: – The GBP/JPY last week was defended well at the 61.8% retracement resistance near 128.00 . – After a period of consolidation, the pair broke below 127.00 today in an environment of risk-aversion . – This break suggests a near-term retest of last week’s lows, with the resumption of the bearish trend as a more aggressive outlook to the downside. The 2011 Low is at 122.15 .

Stalking GBP/JPY as Correction Rally Nears Resistance

Forex Technical Update Prev: GBP/JPY: Elliott Wave Count in Short and Medium Term – Double Zig Zag (7/13) GBP/JPY Nearing Resistance: – GBP/JPY started the week forming a double bottom. Since than, the market has been rallying in a choppy manner, up to the 61.8% reracement level near 128.00. – A pattern breakout projection targets 128.50, and the 78.6% retracement level is near 129.00.

Retail Traders are Counting on Yen Intervention to Come Soon…

Have you ever seen surfers to out into the ocean and turn their surf boards around and wait and watch for the next “big wave”? Well, that’s what traders are trying to do with yen pairs right now. How do I know? FXCM has an indicator called SSI (the Speculative Sentiment Index).

USD/JPY Looks Like its Having its Own “Flash Crash”!

USD/JPY has been getting “the jitters” lately as traders aggressively push the pair lower. However, these traders are having a “nail biting” experience right now because USD/JPY is now in the “intervention zone” (the area that the Bank of Japan started intervening in the currency market last time). It’s caused a lot of craziness in the pair lately.

GBP/JPY: Elliott Wave Count in the Short and Medium Term; Double Zig Zag

Forex Technical Update Prev: Risk Aversion to Push GBP/JPY to 126; 122.15 (7/11) GBP/JPY Short-term Double Bottom Attempt and EW Count: – Risk aversion indeed strengthened the Japanese Yen, pushing GBP/JPY to lows near 126 . – The decline reached down to 124.85 area before being rejected and pushed back above 126 . – The 1H chart shows a double bottom attempt. A break above 127 , should confirm the double bottom formation.

Yen Spikes Overnight!

Waht caused the Japanese yen to spike to 4-month highs not seen since the natural disaster levels?

Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD EURUSD closed @ 13975 which was BELOW the open and breached the previous day’s low. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader’s Res Zone 1 and the Low was 5 pips from Precise Trader’s Sup Tgt 3.   The Hourly Oscillators are Bearish and the Price is Below the MA, so the Bulls have to […]

The Euro Holds at the Battle Line of 1.40 (For Now).

The euro is holding at the “battle line” of 1.40. It’s a crucial psychological level. However, if it drops below that, it further validates the symmetrical triangle pattern’s breakout which will send EUR/USD to below 1.35.

Risk Aversion to Push GBP/JPY Down to 126.00; 122.15

Forex Technical Update Prev: GBP/JPY Short-term Double Bottom Failure can Open Up Larger Double Bottom Scenario (7/8) GBP/JPY – GBP/JPY did not attempt to bottom as anticipated, but instead showed a clear intent to continue the bearish mode to start the week, breaking below the 129.00 pivot. – The 4H chart shows a market declining after a completed ABC correction. The acceleration downwards, and the RSI reading dipping below after failing to sustain a break above 60, all point to bearish continuation. – The bearish outlook is now opening the 126.00 and 122.15 targets

A Crash Course in Trading the Japanese Yen

When I first came over from the stock market to currencies, let’s just say I needed a lot of help. I didn’t know the first thing about trading currencies. So I needed something that would give a “stock guy” an edge in the currency market. After a little digging and some testing, I found a […]

GBP/JPY: Short-term Double Bottom Failure Can Open Up Larger Double Bottom Scenario

Forex Technical Update Prev; Short-term Double Bottom in GBP/JPY Suggests Further Bullish Correction Ahead (7/7) GBP/JPY – GBP/JPY has failed to sustain the break above a double bottom, although the market did reach – The resistance zone right above 130.00 proved too strong to crack with the weak bullish attempt, which didn’t even push the RSI in the 4H chart above 60. – A push above 70 in the RSI reading would further suggest a bullish outlook. – Instead the market fell sharply back into the consolidation and took out the 129.00 low, marking 128.88 .  Still, we see a rejection, or support at this area, which coincides with the 78.6% retracement level of a rally from 128.41 to 130.84 . – If this support holds, the market has entered a range.

Euro Down as Portugal Downgraded by Moody’s

Moody’s just cut Portugal’s government bond rating to “junk” status. Additionally, they warned that banks that rolled over Greek debt could incur impairment charges. This sent the euro tumbling against the dollar, yen and Swiss franc specifically. I also found it interesting today that even though the dollar got a boost from this “euro negative” news, that oil continued to remain strong even in light of the dollar’s intra-day strength

Short-Term Elliott Wave Count for GBP/JPY; Double 3′s Corrective Structure

GBP/JPY is in consolidation after breaking a declining wedge resistance. A double abc corrective structure is shown as the preferred count in the 1H chart. The RSI breaking back above 60 should help kill the bearish momentum established by wave X. Wave Y=W target is near 130.26. The daily chart shows that the decline from 140 has had suspect bearish momentum…

The Day QE2 Ends…Banks Begin their Layoffs!

I love to watch the “hiring and firing” patterns of banks and Wall Street brokerages. It tells me a lot about what they really think rather than what they say. For instance, a couple years or so ago, these big banks and Wall St.

Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)

EURUSD EURUSD closed @ 14370 which was ABOVE the open and breached the previous day’s high. The High was PRECISELY at Precise Trader’s Res Tgt 2 and the Low was 10 pips from Precise Trader’s Sup Zone 1.   The Hourly Oscillators are Bullish but Weak and the Price is Within the MA, so CAUTIOUS  approach […]

Bullish Breakout to a Declining Wedge Observed in the GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY rebounded from the 128.20 area after finishing a 5-wave decline in a wedge pattern. There was also a minor throwback, which the current bullish candle is trying to reverse in order to confirm the bullish breakout. The RSI is pushing against 60, but really there is no strong bearish momentum to kill. But we know from price action that we have completed 3-swings down from the 140.00 high…

Trading Week Outlook: Jun. 27 – Jul. 1

The week ahead will be crucial for the future fate of the euro as all eyes turn to the vote by the Greek Parliament on the new austerity package and the efforts of EU leaders to avert the first default of a sovereign nation since the creation of the Euro-zone. In preparation for the new […]

Next Week Could be the Deciding Moment!

Right now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and the CRB Commodity Index are ALL sitting on (or around) their 200 day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This is typically a very strong “make or break” point for the markets. Many computerized trading systems take their “long or short” bias from whether stocks are largely trading over their long-term average (200 day SMA) or not. Next week, we’ll likely see a “break or a bounce” off of the 200 day SMA.

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