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Top trade idea for September 28th, 2016 – NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar’s recent advance has come to a halt recently after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that interest rates may need to be cut further from their current record low of 2.0%. The NZD’s retreat has been particularly noticeable against the Australian dollar as the AUD/NZD pair has surged back above […]

The Great Debate

As we enter the new week, Central Bank Policy qualm has significantly reduced for now. However, the US election risk hovers on the horizon for markets with the first general election debate of the 2016 presidential campaign set for tonight.  Given the highly polarizing and politically divisive cast of characters, could the drama be any […]

NZD: Kiwi’s Wings Get Clipped

The New Zealand Dollar has had a difficult end to the week. Being heavily sold against most of its major counterparts. However, the longer term charts and underlying macro situation mean the picture is not as clear-cut as it seems. New Zealand has been somewhat of a darling recently. A purring economy, an excellent rugby […]

Top trade idea for September 23rd, 2016 – NZD/USD

Here are key sentences from two central bank statements this week Reserve Bank of New Zealand:  “Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range”. US Federal Open Market Committee:  “The Committee judges that the case for an […]

Top trade idea for September 20th, 2016 – NZD/USD

On the daily chart of NZD USD we are tracking a higher degree corrective wave B taking place, with price now trading in final stages of an ending diagonal that seems to be placed in blue wave C. That said we see price trading right above the lower channel line, from where we believe a […]

Asia treads water ahead of “Big Wednesday”

A mostly quiet session in Asia today. We have a Japanese holiday, “Respect for the Aged Day,” although I’ve not noticed anyone being any nicer to me here in Singapore this morning. The street seems to have gone into hibernation mode ahead of the BoJ and FOMC “Big Wednesday.” The USD continues to be generally […]

Top trade idea for September 14th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

The New Zealand dollar has shown relative strength again today and the commodity currency could push further higher unless the country’s GDP comes out below expectations this evening (or Thursday morning NZ time). The New Zealand economy is expected to have expanded by a solid 1.1% in the second quarter compared to 0.7% in the […]

NZD: The Kiwi gets ready to Fly!

A number of formations on the longer term charts are pointing to a higher NZD as the USD melts away post a very poor ISM last night. For those of you who don’t know, the Kiwi is the national bird of New Zealand. It is a flightless bird, and it is also the nickname for […]

Asia Trading Post G-20. Central Banks Cross Their Fingers

With the USA and Canada on holiday today, trading in Asia has been subdued as we await Europe and continue to digest Fridays disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls number. The weekend’s G-20 produced a few nice dinners I am sure and more than its usual quota of vacuous statements on world trade, working together, stability and the […]

Dollar’s Asymmetric Rally “Unlearns What We Have Learn’t”

Another quiet day in Asia ahead of Fed Governor Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole. The USD has moved asymmetrically in last 24 hours. Rallying against some pairs and falling against other. Today we take a look at some of the most “interesting” moves and ponder whether positioning, Jackson Hole or other “forces” are at play. […]

Big Dollar Not So Mighty

Five things the markets are talking about With investors reluctant to place large directional bets ahead of the Jackson Hole address by Fed chair Yellen this Friday has asset price moves remaining somewhat contained. Despite this, the ‘mighty’ dollar is beginning to look a tad sicklier ahead of this morning’s U.S open. With the lack […]

Abe’s Arrows Fail As USD/JPY Eyes 100.00

MORE ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT FROM JAPAN SEES USD/JPY PERCHED OMINOUSLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL. The urgency of Japans extra budget and the limits of Quantitative Easing were starkly revealed yesterday as the Japanese economy unexpectedly showed 0% GDP growth in the June quarter of 2016. This followed an anaemic growth of 0.5 % in Q1. […]

Be Wary of RBNZ Announcement

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday, the average implied volatility on G10 currencies, an indicator of expected swings over the next month, fell to its lowest level since January 2015. That, of course, is when the SNB lifted its cap on the CHF. The Fed and other Tier 1 central banks have played […]

Top trade idea for August 10th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

Tonight’s key fundamental event is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting, scheduled for 22:00 BST or 17:00 ET. The RBNZ is widely expected to trim interest rates 25 basis points to a new record low of 2.0 per cent. The market seems to have mostly priced in this scenario. The RBNZ will therefore […]

Super Thursday Lives Up To Super Hype

BOE and The Pound  A collective sigh of relief was heard at trading desks overnight, the result of decisive action taken by the Bank of England. Not one to shy away from a challenge, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney spoke frankly about an economic outlook that had “changed markedly”. Moreover, unlike the BoJ, RBA, […]

Dollar Sucks Wind

Five things the markets are talking about The ‘mighty’ dollar continues to bear the weight of last Friday’s poor preliminary U.S GDP data release and a ‘dovish’ Fed, underperforming against a plethora of G20 currencies. Basically, the market is again re-evaluating its timeline for the next potential Fed hike given a slew of weaker-than-expected U.S […]

Will the ECB show a different hand?

Five things the markets are talking about Nope, not really and that’s the majorities viewpoint. Businesses as usual as Euro policy makers are waiting for more data. However, many believe Euro officials may signal such a move is on the cards at the bank’s September 8th meeting. Expect Draghi to be questioned about Brexit and […]

USD/CNH Provides Excitement, Stocks Higher Again

A  quiet day in Asia for G10 with only USD/CNH providing some excitement. Stocks continue their march higher ahead of central banks and expected China easing.  Asia G10 FX A generally range bound day for currencies in Asia with AUD, EURO and USDJPY trading around their mid-range points of 0.7500, 1.1000 and 106.00 respectively. NZD […]

Central Banks to Dominate Proceedings

Tuesday July 19: Five things the markets are talking about Potential monetary policy decisions are currently dictating market moves, whether its bond yields, currency values or equity prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets this Thursday and is expected to leave its policy unchanged. That goes for the Fed too, they meet on July 27. […]

Post-Brexit Highs, Lows, Quandaries and Geopolitics

Post-Brexit Highs and Quandaries A post-Brexit range is coming into a semblance of order .   The market is seeking to determine a new symmetrical level for both the Pound and Japanese Yen. While the next JPY trend is destined to be created on the back Tokyo’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, the pound is still in a […]

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