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Dollar’s Asymmetric Rally “Unlearns What We Have Learn’t”

Another quiet day in Asia ahead of Fed Governor Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole. The USD has moved asymmetrically in last 24 hours. Rallying against some pairs and falling against other. Today we take a look at some of the most “interesting” moves and ponder whether positioning, Jackson Hole or other “forces” are at play. […]

Big Dollar Not So Mighty

Five things the markets are talking about With investors reluctant to place large directional bets ahead of the Jackson Hole address by Fed chair Yellen this Friday has asset price moves remaining somewhat contained. Despite this, the ‘mighty’ dollar is beginning to look a tad sicklier ahead of this morning’s U.S open. With the lack […]

Abe’s Arrows Fail As USD/JPY Eyes 100.00

MORE ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT FROM JAPAN SEES USD/JPY PERCHED OMINOUSLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL. The urgency of Japans extra budget and the limits of Quantitative Easing were starkly revealed yesterday as the Japanese economy unexpectedly showed 0% GDP growth in the June quarter of 2016. This followed an anaemic growth of 0.5 % in Q1. […]

Be Wary of RBNZ Announcement

Five things the markets are talking about Yesterday, the average implied volatility on G10 currencies, an indicator of expected swings over the next month, fell to its lowest level since January 2015. That, of course, is when the SNB lifted its cap on the CHF. The Fed and other Tier 1 central banks have played […]

Top trade idea for August 10th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

Tonight’s key fundamental event is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy meeting, scheduled for 22:00 BST or 17:00 ET. The RBNZ is widely expected to trim interest rates 25 basis points to a new record low of 2.0 per cent. The market seems to have mostly priced in this scenario. The RBNZ will therefore […]

Super Thursday Lives Up To Super Hype

BOE and The Pound  A collective sigh of relief was heard at trading desks overnight, the result of decisive action taken by the Bank of England. Not one to shy away from a challenge, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney spoke frankly about an economic outlook that had “changed markedly”. Moreover, unlike the BoJ, RBA, […]

Dollar Sucks Wind

Five things the markets are talking about The ‘mighty’ dollar continues to bear the weight of last Friday’s poor preliminary U.S GDP data release and a ‘dovish’ Fed, underperforming against a plethora of G20 currencies. Basically, the market is again re-evaluating its timeline for the next potential Fed hike given a slew of weaker-than-expected U.S […]

Will the ECB show a different hand?

Five things the markets are talking about Nope, not really and that’s the majorities viewpoint. Businesses as usual as Euro policy makers are waiting for more data. However, many believe Euro officials may signal such a move is on the cards at the bank’s September 8th meeting. Expect Draghi to be questioned about Brexit and […]

USD/CNH Provides Excitement, Stocks Higher Again

A  quiet day in Asia for G10 with only USD/CNH providing some excitement. Stocks continue their march higher ahead of central banks and expected China easing.  Asia G10 FX A generally range bound day for currencies in Asia with AUD, EURO and USDJPY trading around their mid-range points of 0.7500, 1.1000 and 106.00 respectively. NZD […]

Central Banks to Dominate Proceedings

Tuesday July 19: Five things the markets are talking about Potential monetary policy decisions are currently dictating market moves, whether its bond yields, currency values or equity prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets this Thursday and is expected to leave its policy unchanged. That goes for the Fed too, they meet on July 27. […]

Post-Brexit Highs, Lows, Quandaries and Geopolitics

Post-Brexit Highs and Quandaries A post-Brexit range is coming into a semblance of order .   The market is seeking to determine a new symmetrical level for both the Pound and Japanese Yen. While the next JPY trend is destined to be created on the back Tokyo’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, the pound is still in a […]

Top trade idea for July 11th, 2016 – NZD/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the NZD/CAD is at the upper limit of the upward trend channel. It’s worth buying from the trend line with 0.9585-0.9663 targets. Example purchase level – 0.9345 (23.6% from 0.8693 to 0.9548). Growth to cancel with a break of the trend line (daily candle closes below this line. On Thursday […]

APAC Currency Corner- NFP Time Again !

Non-Farm Payroll-May Anomaly  While the sharp edge of Non-Farm Payroll Day has been dulled by Brexit-driven volatility, none the less, traders will be watching the data intently. Specifically, they will be looking for a potential rebound from the dismal 38,000 jobs recorded in May, which the market interpreted as transformative for the Federal Reserve monetary […]

APAC Currency Corner – Caution is the name of the game

The US dollar posted modest upticks against the G10 currencies in the New York session. USD bulls found solace in yesterday’s US initial jobless claims, which fell to a lower-than-expected 264k last week, lowering the four-week average by 7k to 270k. The weekly employment barometer certainly paints a more robust picture of the US labour […]

Top trade idea for May 27th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY Anti-trade As a floor trader and market-maker in share options I used to cover 5 stocks actively, and kept an eye on another dozen or so. I was always on the look-out for a free bet – a trade that cost nothing or close to nothing, that had significant upside. In principal, I still […]

Top trade idea for May 17th, 2016 – NZD/USD

On the 4H chart of NZDUSD we are observing an idea of an ending diagonal placed in the last blue leg C, that was recently completed, as sharp reversal through the lower trend line might have just started a new bearish cycle. As of now we think that the first impulsive leg was red wave […]

APAC Currency Corner -Waiting Game Retail Sales

The Aussie On the Aussie dollar, a few themes have played out over the past 24 hours. Given the expectation of more aggressive monetary policy easing from the RBA, traders continue to fade commodity-inspired rallies on the AUS/USD.  While the currency has been able to cushion the heightened probability of more rate cuts, it will […]

APAC Currency Corner – the calm before the storm?

Things seem a little quiet in Asia Pacific as markets take a breather from some recent volatility. The danger of these calmer waters is always that sudden shock of a tidal wave from the Fed, China or another central bank tinkering with its monetary policies. For now, it looks like markets are heading for a […]

Top trade idea for May 5th, 2016 – NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair here is forming the c wave of a flat pattern that must be confirmed and this confirmation comes only if market completely retraces wave c in green until that vertical blue line. Going into the NFP tomorrow this is going to be quite interesting in the sense that this abc move in […]

APAC Currency Corner – The Aftermath

Aussie rate cut wrong-foots traders The Aussie dollar was trounced in the wake of yesterday’s RBA unexpected 25 basis point rate cut. But it was more than just the rate cut that spooked traders. Last week’s horrendous CPI print played a big part in the RBA’s decision, but Governor Stevens also sounded alarm bells about […]

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