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APAC Currency Corner – Caution is the name of the game

The US dollar posted modest upticks against the G10 currencies in the New York session. USD bulls found solace in yesterday’s US initial jobless claims, which fell to a lower-than-expected 264k last week, lowering the four-week average by 7k to 270k. The weekly employment barometer certainly paints a more robust picture of the US labour […]

Top trade idea for May 27th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY Anti-trade As a floor trader and market-maker in share options I used to cover 5 stocks actively, and kept an eye on another dozen or so. I was always on the look-out for a free bet – a trade that cost nothing or close to nothing, that had significant upside. In principal, I still […]

Top trade idea for May 17th, 2016 – NZD/USD

On the 4H chart of NZDUSD we are observing an idea of an ending diagonal placed in the last blue leg C, that was recently completed, as sharp reversal through the lower trend line might have just started a new bearish cycle. As of now we think that the first impulsive leg was red wave […]

APAC Currency Corner -Waiting Game Retail Sales

The Aussie On the Aussie dollar, a few themes have played out over the past 24 hours. Given the expectation of more aggressive monetary policy easing from the RBA, traders continue to fade commodity-inspired rallies on the AUS/USD.  While the currency has been able to cushion the heightened probability of more rate cuts, it will […]

APAC Currency Corner – the calm before the storm?

Things seem a little quiet in Asia Pacific as markets take a breather from some recent volatility. The danger of these calmer waters is always that sudden shock of a tidal wave from the Fed, China or another central bank tinkering with its monetary policies. For now, it looks like markets are heading for a […]

Top trade idea for May 5th, 2016 – NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair here is forming the c wave of a flat pattern that must be confirmed and this confirmation comes only if market completely retraces wave c in green until that vertical blue line. Going into the NFP tomorrow this is going to be quite interesting in the sense that this abc move in […]

APAC Currency Corner – The Aftermath

Aussie rate cut wrong-foots traders The Aussie dollar was trounced in the wake of yesterday’s RBA unexpected 25 basis point rate cut. But it was more than just the rate cut that spooked traders. Last week’s horrendous CPI print played a big part in the RBA’s decision, but Governor Stevens also sounded alarm bells about […]

APAC Currency Corner – Disappointment reigns

USDJPY remains the primary focus after the pair fell off a cliff on the back of yesterday’s Bank of Japan inactivity while Yen buying dominated the stage. There was also subordinate interest in buying the Aussie in the BoJ aftermath. However, in late New York trade risk assets, including the Aussie, took a turn for […]

APAC Currency Corner – The Great Central Bank Debate

Over the past day, markets have mostly entered a holding pattern as investors await the outcome of the latest Fed and BoJ policy meetings.  Despite the Bank of Japan hogging the limelight, it’s the Fed that holds the cards and their presence as de facto World Central Banker will be front and centre. The Mighty […]

Top trade idea for April 27th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

The focus for much of the week has been on the FOMC statement, which is understandable given the lack of any clear trend for the dollar and especially for the EUR/USD pair. As it has turned out, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected but in a surprise move it has removed from its […]

Top trade idea for April 18th, 2016 – NZD/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: negotiations in Doha have collapsed. From trade opening on Monday, oil has fallen to $41 per barrel, the NZD is up to 0.8945 against its Canadian counterpart. A double bottom and bull divergence has formed on the daily graph, as has happened on 23rd March earlier this year. Based on […]

APAC-CURRENCY CORNER – CHINA RETAIL SURPRISE

Aussie dollar resilient The Aussie received support from yesterday’s Australian employment data. The uptick in price action came despite what seems to be an “ annual “  pre-budget debt rating warning issued by rating agencies .  . The strong employment print has taken some sting out of near-term rate cut expectations. But despite some constructive […]

APAC Currency Corner -NO MAS

Focus on MAS – USDSGD I do not expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to make any changes to its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) at its bi-annual policy meeting. This likelihood comes despite dismal economic growth prospects and inflation running below target due to slumping oil prices. A few […]

Top trade idea for April 7th, 2016 – NZDUSD

This NZDUSD pair is anything but bullish and from my point of view bears should try to push it below 0.630 again, hence our target. The thing is that the corrective move to the upside, or the green a-b-c is a so called flat and most likely it is a simple correction as it is […]

Top trade idea for March 23rd, 2016 – NZD/USD

The dollar remains the currency market’s standout performer for the second straight day, gaining value against each of its major rivals after this morning’s as-expected New Home Sales report. Despite consistent strength in the greenback each day this week, the world’s reserve currency is still down from its pre-Fed levels of last week, so it’s […]

Top trade idea for March 16th, 2016 – GBP/NZD

It has been a big day without much volatility for the UK assets with the announcement of the government budget and this morning’s slightly stronger than expected jobs and wages data. Chancellor George Osborne has announced few surprises at this budget, though the latest economic forecasts from the OBR is a concern. UK growth of […]

Top trade idea for March 14th, 2016 – NZD/USD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the buyers broke the trend line on the weekly timeframe in February. A pinbar formed last week. At its current position, the pinbar is a weak signal for the strengthening of the NZD, but this isn’t worth ignoring. In this idea I expect to see a strengthening of the Kiwi […]

FX5: Will ECB’s Draghi Disappoint?

Five-things the markets are talking about Investors are preparing themselves for today’s mammoth European Central Bank (ECB) decision. In a few hours the market will get to see if President Draghi again “overpromises and under-delivers” just like in December’s rate announcement or will he and his fellow policy makers up the NIRP ante? Investors expect […]

Top trade idea for February 12th, 2016 – NZD/USD

Kiwi Confluence Trade The confluence of fundamental and technical influences makes a trade more compelling for some traders. Those in this category may be following NZD/USD carefully at the moment. As the Fed embarks on its tightening cycle the RBNZ appears to be heading  towards easing. Further, the lower level of key NZ commodities, and […]

Top trade idea for February 4th, 2016 – EURNZD

The eurnzd cross is forming an interesting pattern here that resembles a pennant so far and the beauty of it is that it comes after a so-called truncated zigzag that needs to be retraced minimum 80% and most of the times the retracement level exceeds 100%. That being said, we want to stay on the […]

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