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Will the ECB show a different hand?

Five things the markets are talking about Nope, not really and that’s the majorities viewpoint. Businesses as usual as Euro policy makers are waiting for more data. However, many believe Euro officials may signal such a move is on the cards at the bank’s September 8th meeting. Expect Draghi to be questioned about Brexit and […]

USD/CNH Provides Excitement, Stocks Higher Again

A  quiet day in Asia for G10 with only USD/CNH providing some excitement. Stocks continue their march higher ahead of central banks and expected China easing.  Asia G10 FX A generally range bound day for currencies in Asia with AUD, EURO and USDJPY trading around their mid-range points of 0.7500, 1.1000 and 106.00 respectively. NZD […]

Central Banks to Dominate Proceedings

Tuesday July 19: Five things the markets are talking about Potential monetary policy decisions are currently dictating market moves, whether its bond yields, currency values or equity prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets this Thursday and is expected to leave its policy unchanged. That goes for the Fed too, they meet on July 27. […]

Post-Brexit Highs, Lows, Quandaries and Geopolitics

Post-Brexit Highs and Quandaries A post-Brexit range is coming into a semblance of order .   The market is seeking to determine a new symmetrical level for both the Pound and Japanese Yen. While the next JPY trend is destined to be created on the back Tokyo’s fiscal and monetary stimulus, the pound is still in a […]

Top trade idea for July 11th, 2016 – NZD/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the NZD/CAD is at the upper limit of the upward trend channel. It’s worth buying from the trend line with 0.9585-0.9663 targets. Example purchase level – 0.9345 (23.6% from 0.8693 to 0.9548). Growth to cancel with a break of the trend line (daily candle closes below this line. On Thursday […]

APAC Currency Corner- NFP Time Again !

Non-Farm Payroll-May Anomaly  While the sharp edge of Non-Farm Payroll Day has been dulled by Brexit-driven volatility, none the less, traders will be watching the data intently. Specifically, they will be looking for a potential rebound from the dismal 38,000 jobs recorded in May, which the market interpreted as transformative for the Federal Reserve monetary […]

APAC Currency Corner – Caution is the name of the game

The US dollar posted modest upticks against the G10 currencies in the New York session. USD bulls found solace in yesterday’s US initial jobless claims, which fell to a lower-than-expected 264k last week, lowering the four-week average by 7k to 270k. The weekly employment barometer certainly paints a more robust picture of the US labour […]

Top trade idea for May 27th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

NZD/JPY Anti-trade As a floor trader and market-maker in share options I used to cover 5 stocks actively, and kept an eye on another dozen or so. I was always on the look-out for a free bet – a trade that cost nothing or close to nothing, that had significant upside. In principal, I still […]

Top trade idea for May 17th, 2016 – NZD/USD

On the 4H chart of NZDUSD we are observing an idea of an ending diagonal placed in the last blue leg C, that was recently completed, as sharp reversal through the lower trend line might have just started a new bearish cycle. As of now we think that the first impulsive leg was red wave […]

APAC Currency Corner -Waiting Game Retail Sales

The Aussie On the Aussie dollar, a few themes have played out over the past 24 hours. Given the expectation of more aggressive monetary policy easing from the RBA, traders continue to fade commodity-inspired rallies on the AUS/USD.  While the currency has been able to cushion the heightened probability of more rate cuts, it will […]

APAC Currency Corner – the calm before the storm?

Things seem a little quiet in Asia Pacific as markets take a breather from some recent volatility. The danger of these calmer waters is always that sudden shock of a tidal wave from the Fed, China or another central bank tinkering with its monetary policies. For now, it looks like markets are heading for a […]

Top trade idea for May 5th, 2016 – NZDUSD

The NZDUSD pair here is forming the c wave of a flat pattern that must be confirmed and this confirmation comes only if market completely retraces wave c in green until that vertical blue line. Going into the NFP tomorrow this is going to be quite interesting in the sense that this abc move in […]

APAC Currency Corner – The Aftermath

Aussie rate cut wrong-foots traders The Aussie dollar was trounced in the wake of yesterday’s RBA unexpected 25 basis point rate cut. But it was more than just the rate cut that spooked traders. Last week’s horrendous CPI print played a big part in the RBA’s decision, but Governor Stevens also sounded alarm bells about […]

APAC Currency Corner – Disappointment reigns

USDJPY remains the primary focus after the pair fell off a cliff on the back of yesterday’s Bank of Japan inactivity while Yen buying dominated the stage. There was also subordinate interest in buying the Aussie in the BoJ aftermath. However, in late New York trade risk assets, including the Aussie, took a turn for […]

APAC Currency Corner – The Great Central Bank Debate

Over the past day, markets have mostly entered a holding pattern as investors await the outcome of the latest Fed and BoJ policy meetings.  Despite the Bank of Japan hogging the limelight, it’s the Fed that holds the cards and their presence as de facto World Central Banker will be front and centre. The Mighty […]

Top trade idea for April 27th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

The focus for much of the week has been on the FOMC statement, which is understandable given the lack of any clear trend for the dollar and especially for the EUR/USD pair. As it has turned out, the Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected but in a surprise move it has removed from its […]

Top trade idea for April 18th, 2016 – NZD/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: negotiations in Doha have collapsed. From trade opening on Monday, oil has fallen to $41 per barrel, the NZD is up to 0.8945 against its Canadian counterpart. A double bottom and bull divergence has formed on the daily graph, as has happened on 23rd March earlier this year. Based on […]

APAC-CURRENCY CORNER – CHINA RETAIL SURPRISE

Aussie dollar resilient The Aussie received support from yesterday’s Australian employment data. The uptick in price action came despite what seems to be an “ annual “  pre-budget debt rating warning issued by rating agencies .  . The strong employment print has taken some sting out of near-term rate cut expectations. But despite some constructive […]

APAC Currency Corner -NO MAS

Focus on MAS – USDSGD I do not expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to make any changes to its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) at its bi-annual policy meeting. This likelihood comes despite dismal economic growth prospects and inflation running below target due to slumping oil prices. A few […]

Top trade idea for April 7th, 2016 – NZDUSD

This NZDUSD pair is anything but bullish and from my point of view bears should try to push it below 0.630 again, hence our target. The thing is that the corrective move to the upside, or the green a-b-c is a so called flat and most likely it is a simple correction as it is […]

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