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Top trade idea for August 26th, 2016 – USD/SGD

The annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole is here at last. MsYellen’s set speech, entitled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit”, may or may not attempt to move market thinking towards a faster interest rate tightening cycle. Before you say “meh”, consider the market positioning. The forward interest rate curve varies but is […]

Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition

Jackson Hole APAC Breakfast Edition Today’s focus will clearly be on the Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole, which is scheduled to be delivered at 10 am EST. According to the Curriculum, the topic is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future”, which is, in itself, a rather academic-sounding piece and unlikely […]

Dollar’s Asymmetric Rally “Unlearns What We Have Learn’t”

Another quiet day in Asia ahead of Fed Governor Yellen’s speech in Jackson Hole. The USD has moved asymmetrically in last 24 hours. Rallying against some pairs and falling against other. Today we take a look at some of the most “interesting” moves and ponder whether positioning, Jackson Hole or other “forces” are at play. […]

Caution Remains Ahead of Yellen Speech

The trend of marginal moves while pushing record highs in US indices looks set to continue on Wednesday, with futures pointing to a marginally higher open on Wall Street. This week in particular there has been a keen focus on the Jackson Hole Symposium, at which Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak. […]

South African Rand Slammed!

The South African Rand (Zar) plunged 3.5 % as news emerges of a police summons and a separate investigation of the Finance Minister by tax authorities. The South African Rand (ZAR) collapsed 3.5 % against the USD in a matter of minutes during the New York session. Moving from 13.50 to 14.05 before settling in […]

The Waiting Game : Jackson Hole

USDJPY Traders have been reticent overnight with the currency mired in tight ranges. BOJ stimulus talks versus the Fed dovishness outlook: Traders are stuck in limbo, aware that there is some BOJ uncertainty on how they will deal with a strengthening Yen; while the near-term Fed outlook is equally clouded, not the best landscape to […]

Top trade idea for August 23rd, 2016 – USD/NOK

On the 4h chart of crude oil we can see that price made a nice rally from the lows, for now in three waves but because of strong bullish momentum with sharp price action up to 161.8% Fibonacci ratio, we believe market made wave 3) as part of a bullish impulse. That said, current downward […]

Markets Fish For Fed Clues

Five things the markets are talking about Most of the big’ dollars strength has come on the back of a number of ‘bullish’ Fed member comments over the past few sessions. Late last week, Fed members Dudley and Williams both suggested that they would not completely rule out an interest rates hike in September. Last […]

R-Stars to Falling Stars

R-Stars to Falling Stars  Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming is turning into this year’s most anticipated event when it comes to US monetary policy. While Jackson Hole rarely disappoints the “Econ-Geek” in all of us, traders are on high alert after a befuddling policy divide amongst Fed Members and will […]

Top trade idea for August 19th, 2016 – AUD/USD

The Aussie has lost upward momentum against $US this week. On the chart this is indicated by: A trend peak under the upper Bollinger Band following the strong momentum peak above it and The slow stochastic indicator now trending down from the overbought zone. From here, a break below the 20 day moving average would […]

The Fed: A Great Divide or A Growing Rift

By any measure of price action, the longer Traders have to dwell repetitively and ruminate on the Fed policy the less US dollar friendly they are likely to become. From the rhetoric making the rounds  , it would seem that Federal Reserve officials face a very complex, and possibly divisive  debate over the conundrum of […]

Sterling Bears Feel the Heat After Retail Sales

Five things the markets are talking about It’s not a surprise to see the dollar turning lower post-FOMC minutes yesterday. The Fed’s communiqué illustrated a conflicted outlook for rate hikes; with some Fed members wanting to wait until inflation firms and others saying a rate increase would be warranted. A confusing message should have been […]

Top trade idea for August 18th, 2016 – EURUSD

The EURUSD looks set to completely retrace the Brexit move if one is judging by the aggressiveness of this bullish reaction. However, from my point of view this is nothing but a bearish triangle part of a double combination and this triangle needs to break lower, not higher. That being said, staying short and fading […]

Fed Serving Chicken and Waffles for Breakfast.

Not surprisingly, the Fed served up another plate of mixed messages very much reflective of the confusing signals dished out earlier in the week by various Fed Speakers.  Traders were hoping for some tclarity in the wake of Tuesday’s “hawkish “comments from Fed Vice-Chair William Dudley, but none was on offer. Not to mention we […]

Will Investors Get FED Clarity Today?

Five things the markets are talking about Today’s is FOMC minute’s reporting day. Will investors get the granularity on the timing of U.S rate normalization they so much crave? Market odds are leaning towards a resounding ‘no.’ Already this week, investors have been served up some mixed messages from voting and non-voting members. Net result, […]

Abe’s Arrows Fail As USD/JPY Eyes 100.00

MORE ECONOMIC DISAPPOINTMENT FROM JAPAN SEES USD/JPY PERCHED OMINOUSLY ABOVE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL 100 LEVEL. The urgency of Japans extra budget and the limits of Quantitative Easing were starkly revealed yesterday as the Japanese economy unexpectedly showed 0% GDP growth in the June quarter of 2016. This followed an anaemic growth of 0.5 % in Q1. […]

RBA Minutes Failed to Make a Splash

While  the minutes from the RBA board’s August interest rate meeting didn’t sound any major alarm bells, it did not provide any outlook for interest rates, leaving the market to its interpretation The RBA minutes release was anticipated to be a non-event and from the RBA, it appears pretty much business as usual. With the lack […]

Supply Glut Not Stopping Crude’s Rally

Five things the markets are talking about Capital markets are again adjusting themselves to disappointing data from the world’s largest economy. Friday’s July U.S retail sales data was not inspiring, with both the headline and core readings flat on a m/m basis, a big deceleration from the decent growth seen in the revised June report. […]

US Consumer Wallets Remain Closed

US Consumer Wallets Remain Closed The US retail sales figures disappointed, raising doubts as to whether the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year. The US consumer needs to start spending for the Fed to be satisfied the economy is firing on all cylinders. Consumer reluctance to open their wallets left many stumped and even […]

U.S Retail Sales A Big Disappointment

U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly flat in July as Americans cut back on purchases of clothing and other goods, pointing to a moderation in consumer spending that could temper expectations of an acceleration in economic growth in the third quarter. The Commerce Department said on Friday that the unchanged reading last month followed an upwardly […]

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