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Top trade idea for December 2nd, 2016 – EUR/USD

The Euro is thinking about completing a bullish head and shoulder pattern. It’s doing so as markets head into the US Jobs data and the Italian referendum this weekend. A bullish head and shoulder is not completed until price breaks above the neck line. Given the potential for volatility surrounding the jobs data and referendum, […]

USD/JPY floats in the Ichimoko Cloud

After a breathtaking rally over the last three and a half weeks, USD/JPY could finally pause for a well-earned rest. Donald Trump’s victory already seems like a long time ago. The most notable beneficiary in the G10 space has off course been USD/JPY. With the reflation trade yield jump in bonds pushing out the USD […]

Trumps Dollar Surge to Die in December?

Five things the markets are talking about In November, Trump’s surprise U.S presidential win was a boon for the mighty dollar via the markets “reflation” trade hopes. Can the ‘big’ dollar gains be added to this month or has the market overshot the mark in their enthusiasm? The death of a deal is always in […]

Top trade idea for December 1st, 2016 – USDCAD

We’re still looking at the USDCAD pair as the latest OPEC saga didn’t bring anything new to the pair in the sense that price is not going anywhere. That being said, back on the daily chart above, the pattern seems to be virtually unchanged. OPEC agreed to cut oil production starting with next January and, […]

OPEC to Save Face with a Disappointing Deal

Five things the markets are talking about No more jawboning – is there a deal? Will they or won’t they announce a production cut? It’s all that dealers and investors want to hear from OPEC in Vienna this morning. Should a barrel of crude be trading above +$50 or below +$40? Whatever the outcome, the […]

OPEC Cacophony

Overnight saw another high volume, volatile session for forex, driven on the back of strong US economic data. However, it was impossible for currency traders to sidestep OPEC musings given a 4% drop in WTI, after the cacophony from headlines all pointing to the division between the Saudi agenda and the reality of Iran and […]

OPEC’s Poker Game Trump Dollar Moves

Five things the markets are talking about Has the impact of President-elect Trump’s surprise victory on the dollar and commodities peaked or do investors just want to get this event risk week out of the way before again imposing the “reflation” trade again? Capital Markets appear to be in the holding pattern going into the […]

South African Rand Event Risk Today!

A shock no-confidence motion asking President Jacob to step down has been posted this weekend at the ruling ANC’s National Executive Committee meeting. The motion was tabled by the 3 Senior Ministers (a shock in itself) including the Chief Whip. Voting has been postponed until today and should happen sometime in the next few hours. […]

Dollar Succumbs to Profit Taking Ahead of Event Risks

Five things the markets are talking about Expectations that a OPEC production deal would unravel, a possible defeat in Sunday’s referendum in Italy and elections in Austria, coupled with the U.S presidential transition challenge of polls in battleground states by Clinton is dominating early trading. Consolidation in bonds and equities has been relatively muted compared […]

Week Ahead OPEC and US Jobs to Influence Markets

December rate hike boosted by encouraging Fed minutes Market action was interrupted by various holidays around the world but overall the U.S. dollar continued to rebuild the momentum it had after the elections. The minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting in November sent a strong signal about a December rate hike. The CME’s FedWatch […]

Dollar Pares Gains to Offer Relief to Commodities

It’s been a slow start to trading on Friday, with yesterday’s bank holiday in the US weighing heavily on volumes and a severe lack of news flow leaving markets void of any significant catalysts. While today is not a bank holiday, trade is likely to remain very thin with many in the US opting to […]

U.S Dollar Stumbles, But Does Not Fall

Five things the markets are talking about It seems that investors are happy to take a breather in this holiday-shortened week as the dollar pares this week’s surge supported by U.S rate differentials. The “reflationary trade” continues to suck money back in to U.S equity markets, while putting further pressure on emerging market FX rates, […]

Asia FX: The Emerging’s are Submerging

With Thanksgiving and America’s annual turkey cull today, G10 trading was subdued. However with the relentless March of US Yields emerging Asia FX remains under severe pressure even as money continues to flood into  select equity markets and industrial commodities. These are strange times indeed. Instead of gently rolling into what will be for many, […]

U.S Dollar Hits Fresh Highs on Thanksgiving Holiday

Five things the markets are talking about The dollar is extending its gains following yesterday’s strong U.S durable goods and consumer confidence data, along with Fed minutes that all but cemented a Fed rate hike next month. Europe’s single unit has fallen to its lowest level since March 2015 (€1.0518) on fears ahead of the […]

Top trade idea for November 24th, 2016 – USDCAD

Back to the USDCAD pair today as the pattern that the market forms here is quite a complicated one. In the end, it turns out that this is a triangle that has for the e-wave a triangle of a lower degree. The whole structure is a very complex one and results in more than thirteen […]

Asia Quiet on a Tokyo Holiday

Trading across all asset classes has been subdued in Asia today with a holiday in Tokyo and ahead of Thanksgiving in the United States. The market continues to catch its breath after an exciting two weeks with only AUD/USD showing signs of life in Asia trading today. AUD was buoyed by more frenzied buying of […]

Bond Rout Takes a Breather, FOMC Minutes Next

Five things the markets are talking about Death, taxes, and a Fed rate hike in December are life’s only certainties according to the bond market which now has the odds of an increase on Dec 14 at +100%. Markets will be watching todays FOMC minutes at (2:00pm EST) for that vindication, while seeking out the […]

Holiday Induced Consolidation

With the USD consolidation of sorts and the UST 10’s stabilizing around 2.31-32% as the global bond market sell-off abates, G-10 traders’ attention was diverted to the oil patch as the usual raft of OPEC headlines will provide crosswinds. The latest of which is not sitting well with traders, as WTI turned lower after it […]

Crude Bulls Looking For $55 A Barrel

Five things the markets are talking about Hopes that the Trump administration would usher in a pro-business, pro-growth environment continue to drive stocks and yield higher and favour the dollar on rate differentials. Yesterday, the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite closed out to complete a trifecta of records as equities continued […]

Reality Checks and the US Dollar

A quiet weekend of news has seen the USD finally see some profit taking and even some whispers of “a meaningful technical correction.” However, before we get too carried away, I thought it would be interesting to see just how much of a technical correction we would need now to put a hole under the […]

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