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Top trade idea for March 27th, 2015 – USD/MXN

Many traders will refuse an each way bet. That is, if a trade goes against them, they won’t reverse and go in the new direction. Usually this is a result of at least one painful “whipsawing” as an inexperienced trader. Yet experienced traders know when to break the rules,, and the Mexican peso’s positioning at […]

Chart Of The Day For March 27th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0857, 1.0456, 1.0244 Resistance:1.1051, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro rallied against the US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the march 26 high at 1.1051 exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1263. Alternatively, a move below […]

USD/CAD – Poloz Did Not Ruffle the Loonie’s Wings

CAD rate cut “buy’s us time” Need time for lower oil prices to have impact BoC to wait on sidelines Higher crude temporarily supporting CAD Governor Stephen Poloz at the Bank of Canada (BoC) said nothing to upset the market balance in his speech in London this morning. The governor has been criticized by various […]

Post-FOMC Levels Holding USD for Now; JPY-crosses Begin Breakdown

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index struggling at post-FOMC low, daily 34-EMA. USDJPY wipes out below 119.25, contrary to March seasonality. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. The Japanese Yen is defying its seasonal tendancies right now, which could set up an interesting month of April. Typically, at least over the past […]

Top trade idea for March 26th, 2015 – USDCAD

Insisting on a higher usdcad as the recent move to the downside failed to take the previous lows at the end of the contracting triangle, namely the 1.2400 lows. This gives us quite a nice rr ratio as the stop for this trade is the 1.2400, but the target is quite handsome: above 1.2900, making […]

Chart Of The Day For March 26th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0955, 1.0456, 1.0233 Resistance:1.1263, 1.1513, 1.1762 The Euro rose as expected against US Dollar, with prices now poised to make a move above the 1.12 figure. Near-term resistance is at 1.1263, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that on a daily closing basis […]

EURO Marches Higher

EUR bulls need a €1.1000 close for confidence S. inflation remains benign German growth solid in Q1 on QE Hungary’s central bank surprises The euro is inching higher on Wednesday versus the U.S. dollar. Given the forex market’s current run of unpredictable moves, only time will tell if the single unit is capable of taking […]

Dollar Staves Off Another Reversal Risk

Talking Points: Dollar Staves Off Another Reversal Risk Euro Focus Turning from QE Back to Greece British Pound Stumbles After Inflation Stalls for the First Time Dollar Staves Off Another Reversal Risk The Dollar took another stab at turning its eight-month bull trend this past session. However, this time around, there wasn’t a FOMC rate […]

Top trade idea for March 25th, 2015 – AUD/USD

The US dollar is trading lower again in the aftermath of the FOMC’s surprisingly dovish statement last week and after the durable goods orders became the latest US macro data to disappoint expectations. As well as the pound and euro regaining some lost ground, the commodity currencies have also fared well in recent days, not […]

Chart Of The Day For March 25th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0456, 1.0233, 0.9984 Resistance:1.0955, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro rallied against the US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the intersection of a falling trend line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0955 exposes the 38.2% […]

Top Trade Idea For March 24th, 2015 –USD/CAD

Not Top Trade Idea. Only Analysis USDCAD is clearly in bullish mode since 2014, but prices has turned down from latest high so it looks like that new correction is underway which is part of an uptrend. We are tracking idea of an expanded flat that can be taking place in current blue wave (4), […]

Chart Of The Day For March 24th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0456, 1.0233, 0.9984 Resistance:1.0955, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro moved higher against the US Dollar as expected after prices produced a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. Near-term resistance is at 1.0955, the intersection of a falling trend line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, with a break […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Takes Flight Despite Weaker Crude

Canada Retail Sales a bust in January Oil prices not helping the loonie bear BoC’s Poloz credibility on the line later in the week OIS pricing in another BoC cut in the coming months The Canadian dollar is starting off the week on the front foot (CAD$1.2507) and this despite crude prices trading a tad […]

Corrective Bias Takes Shape Across USD-Spectrum

Talking Points: EURUSD poised for test of key 1.0905 level. GBPUSD must clear and hold 1.4995 before further gains possible. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. The start of the week has brought about more pressure on the US Dollar across the board, with traders continuing to close out long-held […]

Chart Of The Day For March 23th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0456, 1.0233, 0.9984 Resistance:1.0955, 1.1263, 1.1513 The Euro rallied against the US Dollar as expected after putting in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern. A daily close above the intersection of a falling trend line and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0955 exposes the 38.2% […]

Week in FX: A Wild Ride for Forex Traders

Dollar bulls require patience Norges Bank disappoints but looking to cut No clarity on currency intervention from SNB Greece remains in the frame Many are hoping that it will be a calm close to a mad week that happened to see the Federal Reserve temper enthusiasm for U.S. growth with imminent policy changes. A few […]

Commodity Dollars Rise as Yen Gains on Firming Risk Appetite

Talking Points: Commodity Dollars Aim Higher as Yen Falls Amid Firming Risk Sentiment British Pound Declines, Newswires Cite Dovish BOE Rhetoric as Catalyst See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade as firming risk appetite fueled demand for sentiment-geared FX. […]

Chart Of The Day For March 20th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.0456, 1.0233, 0.9984 Resistance:1.0955, 1.1263, 1.1513 A Euro faltered following a test above the 1.10 figure having attempted to rebound against the US Dollar asexpected. Near-term support is in the 1.0456-541 area (March 16 low, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion), with a break below that on […]

EUR’s Bearish Picture Hardly Dented

Fed’s hesitance obliterates soft bull positions Fed’s data dependency a boon for volatility FOMC full employment parameters change EUR seeks Greek guidance Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has been a dollar bull’s friend for a very long time, but yesterday she took the first step to break that symbiotic relationship. Whereas investors have for the […]

The Dollar Meltdown and Rebound – What Did the Fed Do?

Talking Points: EURUSD trades back under 1.0700 after seeing 1.1000 yesterday. USDCAD finds triangle support, trades back to daily 8-EMA. See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era. Yesterday produced the largest single-day rally in EURUSD since October 27, 2011, at the height of the Euro-Zone crisis. Subsequently, that also marked the […]

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