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Chart Of The Day For May 22,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1059, 1.0934, 1.0808 Resistance:1.1214, 1.1310, 1.1466 The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected but an Inverted Hammer candlestick now hints a rebound may be brewing. Near-term resistance is at 1.1214, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily […]

Dollar Deflated by Fed Expectations and Eurozone Data

Fed: more talk and more data No June rate hike has the dollar under pressure European PMIs mixed, fragile recovery expected K. retail sales supports sterling There was nothing groundbreaking revealed yesterday in the April Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes. Market price action would suggest that it was an uninspired event ticking off most […]

Chart Of The Day For May 21st,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1059, 1.0934, 1.0808 Resistance:1.1214, 1.1310, 1.1466 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence hinted at ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 1.1059 exposes the 50% level at 1.0934. Alternatively, a turn above the […]

Top trade idea for May 21st, 2015 – EURUSD

This is the fashionable usdcad pair and I am both bullish and bearish on the pair as the current setup suggests the move to the downside is a so called double combination. If that is the case, then it means it is a three waves structure and three waves structures in the a wave position […]

Fed Minutes Eyed, Rate Hike Chatter Ensues

Rate divergence trade trends again ECB in direct conflict to “trade of a lifetime” FOMC minutes to provide direction for dollar supporters BoE not worried about deflation The rule of thumb is that central banks prefer not to be seen as interfering with markets unless they are out of sync with fundamentals or preventing policies […]

EUR/USD, GBP/USD into Trend Support with FOMC Minutes Due

Talking Points: EURUSD snaps uptrend, heads to former resistance near $1.1050. GBPUSD holding April 13 uptrend after BoE minutes earlier. See the May forex seasonality report. The US Dollar is attempting at carving out a bottom after a five-week downtrend, but it faces a very legitimate test today when the April FOMC minutes are released. […]

Top Trade Idea for May 20th, 2015 – EUR/USD

On Monday, we highlighted a short-term bearish Butterfly pattern on EURUSD, noting that the pattern “suggest[ed] a move down toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire ABCD pattern at 1.1220, though the 38.2% retracement at 1.1310 could serve as a more achievable near-term target” (see “EURUSD: Greece’s Doomsday Clock is Nearing Midnight” for more). […]

Chart Of The Day For May 20th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak,  Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1104, 1.0992, 1.0881 Resistance:1.1242, 1.1327, 1.1466 The Euro turned lower against the US Dollar as expected, with sellers now threatening to push through the 1.11 figure. Near-term support is at 1.1104, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below that on a daily closing basis […]

EUR Bears Put the Boot In

ECB members deliver single currency a massive blow Bund curve flattens on front-loaded comments EUR breaks through psychological €1.1200 handle BoE’s Carney not worried about deflation Last month’s Bund rout that caused yields to spike and Treasury-Bund spreads to tighten supported the EUR. Any comments that would flatten the Bund yield curve would have an […]

Top Trade Idea for May 19th, 2015 – AUD/USD

Today’s Top Trade Idea – AUDUSD AUDUSD has turned up in the past few months, but most likely only temporary as rally from the low is having an overlapping structure. We know that this is a characteristics of a contra-trend price action, so trend remains bearish for now within impulse that is in play since […]

Chart Of The Day For May 19th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1242, 1.1104, 1.0992 Resistance:1.1327, 1.1463, 1.1565 The Euro declined against the US Dollar as expected after negative RSI divergence hinted at ebbing upside momentum. A daily close below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1242 exposes the 38.2% level at 1.1104. Alternatively, a turn above the […]

New Zealand Dollar Slumps as Interest Rate Expectations Deteriorate

Talking Points: NZ Dollar Slumps as Markets Bet on Most Dovish RBNZ Outlook Since 2009 Aussie Dollar Fails to Hold Gains After Comments from RBA DepGov Lowe US Dollar Corrects Higher After Dropping the Most in a Month Last Week The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade amid deteriorating RBNZ policy expectations. Priced-in bets […]

Chart Of The Day For May 18th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1335, 1.1257, 1.1130 Resistance:1.1463, 1.1565, 1.1668 The Euro advanced for a fourth consecutive day, hitting the highest level in over three months against the US Dollar. Near-term resistance is at 1.1463, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a daily closing basis […]

A Shot Across the Bow for the EUR Bull

Draghi’s crying call supports QE trades Euro session looking To re-establish EUR shorts Bund and Treasury yields capped for now Traders zero in on commodity currencies’ performance George Soros’s Quantum fund did take on the Bank of England and broke it on what is known as Black Wednesday in 1992, but in general, investors should […]

These Conditions Need to be Met Before USDOLLAR Bottoms

Talking Points: EURUSD, GBPUSD slide back from recent highs. USDOLLAR Index still in counter-trend, bearish condition. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite a rebound that’s materialized the past 24-hours, it’s still too early to call a bottom in the USDOLLAR Index. As EURUSD puts in a truncated top by failing to reach its channel […]

Chart Of The Day For May 15th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1335, 1.1257, 1.1130 Resistance:1.1463, 1.1565, 1.1668 The Euro continues to push upward, issuing the strongest close in three months against the US Dollar. A daily close above the 38.2% Fibonacci expansionat 1.1463 exposes the 50% level at 1.1565. Alternatively, a turn below the 23.6% Fib […]

USDOLLAR Index Losses May Have Further to Run

Talking Points: USDOLLAR Index achieves head & shoulders target of 11650/60. January swing low near 11587 now in focus. See the May forex seasonality report. Despite achieving its head & shoulders topping target, there is evidence the greenback may remain under pressure in the days ahead. The USDOLLAR Index has evolved into more of a […]

Chart Of The Day For May 14th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1335, 1.1257, 1.1130 Resistance:1.1463, 1.1565, 1.1668 The Euro is testing the highest level in three months against the US Dollar, with prices now eyeing resistance above the 1.14 figure. Near-term resistance is at 1.1463, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a break above that on a […]

Top trade idea for May 14th, 2015 – EURUSD

It seems that the eurusd pair just finished an impulsive move to the upside and the medium term uptrend seems to be finished. Funny is that this five waves structure seems to be a leg of a contracting triangle, the b wave, and it is an elongated flat. These kind of patterns appear almost exclusively […]

Chart Of The Day For May 13th,2015 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak, Talking Points: EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat Support: 1.1040, 1.0955, 1.0852 Resistance:1.1257, 1.1335, 1.1463 The Euro may be carving out a top against the US Dollar after putting in a bearish Three Inside Down candlestick pattern. A daily close below the 1.1040-96 area exposes the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0955. Alternatively, a turn […]

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