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Top trade idea for February 11th, 2016 – EURUSD

Complex correction for the eurusd pair as the move to the upside, despite the fact that it is really aggressive, it is not an impulsive move, but a corrective one. If that is the case, judging by the fact that there were little or no retracements, it means it is a zigzag family pattern and […]

What Investors Need Yellen To Say Today

Expect Fed Chair Yellen to be walking a fine line later this morning. Ms. Yellen is due to testify on the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the House Financial Services Committee. Her remarks will be closely monitored, especially in light of the recent increase in global economic insecurity, as investors seek some color on her […]

Top trade idea for February 10th, 2016 – USD/JPY

It’s been a busy day so far for central bankers, especially in Japan and the US. As we noted on Monday, the yen has seen massive safe haven / carry trade unwinding flows over the last two weeks, and as a result, USD/JPY is now falling for its 7th consecutive day to a new 15-month […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Decouples from Oil Price Fall

The loonie was not dragged down by a tumble in oil prices and managed to eke out gains after the Canadian and U.S. bond yield spreads narrowed due to the softness of the big dollar. The USD was being sold off in exchange for investors looking for safety and headed into EUR, CHF and JPY. […]

Yen Safe Haven Flows Dominate Sessions

Global financial turmoil continues to influence safe-haven flows and stall the mighty USD’s 18-month climb. Global growth fears have fixed income dealers looking for clues on the FOMC’s policy trajectory. Currently, the market is unwinding bets that the Fed would tighten rates further this year. Softer U.S economic data continues to raise speculation that the […]

Top trade idea for February 9th, 2016 – AUD/USD

AUDUSD has turned nicely down last week from 0.7240 where we expected to see a new turning point after seven legs of recovery from January lows. Recovery was overlapping and slow so we labeled it as a corrective move, probably it was wave C within a big triangle so new three wave decline can now […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Slightly Lower After Oil Drop

The USD was under pressure at the start of the week, but the CAD was not of the currencies that capitalized on the big dollar’s pain. Commodity prices tumbled and with that any hopes of loonie gains. Safe haven trades such as EUR, JPY and gold advanced against the USD. The CAD got a temporary […]

Canada: Building permits, December 2015

The total value of building permits issued by Canadian municipalities rose 11.3% to $6.9 billion in December, following a 19.9% decline the previous month. Higher construction intentions for multi-family dwellings in Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta explained the advance. Construction intentions in the residential sector increased 16.3% to $4.7 billion in December, following a […]

FX Markets Continue To Debate FOMC’s Policy Trajectory

Jan-worst opening month for global equities in 7-years Feb 3-worst day for the dollar in 7-years Recent dollar move would usually be associated with a Fed policy move Is the market pricing in a policy error by Fed? Last week saw the ‘buck’s’ biggest weekly decline against the dollar index in seven-years (-3%). Even U.S […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Suffers Employment Setback

After an impressive 22,800 new jobs were added in December the forecast called for a lower number in January, but instead the figure released by Statistics Canada was well below expectations of 5,200 new jobs. Canada lost 5,700 jobs in January. The job losses pushed the unemployment rate to 7.2 percent. The energy sector was […]

Canada’s Labour Force Survey, January 2016

Employment was virtually unchanged in January (-5,700 or 0.0%) and the unemployment rate edged up to 7.2%. In the 12 months to January, employment increased by 0.7% (+126,000). Over the same period, the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 7.2%, as the labour force grew at a faster pace than employment. There was little change […]

US Adds 151,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate Falls To 4.9%

Job growth settled into a more sustainable pace in January and the unemployment rate dropped to an almost eight-year low of 4.9 percent, signs of a resilient labor market that’s causing wage growth to stir. The 151,000 advance in payrolls, while less than forecast, largely reflected payback for a seasonal hiring pickup in the final […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Erases January Losses Ahead of Employment Data

The Canadian dollar rallied versus its American counterpart on Thursday as disappointing data continues to hurt the USD. U.S. unemployment claims recording a rise of 8,000 applications for 285,000 last week when only 2,000 was forecasted. The rise in the number of claims joins both purchasing managers indices (PMI) manufacturing and non-manufacturing, which are leading […]

5 Things The Markets Are Talking About

Credit Suisse shares plunge, oil’s wild ride and it’s Bank of England decision day. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today. 1. Credit Suisse plunge Shares in Credit Suisse Group AG dropped to their lowest level since 1991 after the bank posted a loss of 5.8 billion Swiss francs […]

Great Unwind-‘Long’ Dollar Positions Recalibrate

The mighty dollar has been the darling of the forex market for 18-months now, mostly on rate differentials. But has the Fed got it right? So far this year, and after the first Fed rate hike in nine-years last December, the U.S fixed income market continues to price in a Fed policy error. Dealers see […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Rises as US Data Takes Down USD

Disappointing Data Questions Fed Decision to Hike as USD Tumbles The loonie is rising today thanks in no small part to two factors. The softer ISM Non-manufacturing data has slowed down and missed expectations at 53.5. The price of oil continues to rise as Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC are teasing […]

China To Loosen Foreign Capital Flow Rules

People’s Bank of China (PBoC plans to relax rules of withdraw of QFII funds PBOC also to loosen rules on when QFII funds enter the country China’s central bank plans to loosen rules on when foreign investors can bring money in and out of the country, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter. […]

Top trade idea for February 3rd, 2016 – GBP/USD

So weak has been the dollar this week that even the GBP/USD has managed to regain its poise. Clearly, traders are no longer expecting the US Federal Reserve to embark on an aggressive tightening cycle after the central bank had hinted in December at several more interest rate rises when it increased rates for the […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Under Pressure as Oil Tumbles

Mondays CAD decoupling from the price of oil proved to be a mirage. With both West Texas and Brent crude falling by more than 4 percent the Loonie lost ground versus the USD in the Tuesday trading session. The price of oil got a temporary reprieve after rumour circulated (and where fanned by official comments) […]

RBA Maintains An Easing Bias, But With Upbeat View

The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates on hold at +2.00% as widely expected, noting reasonable prospects for continued growth in the economy, with inflation close to target. The RBA retained its view that “low inflation may provide scope for easier policy” but was also more upbeat on domestic economy, “stating expansion in the non-mining […]

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