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Top trade idea for October 21st, 2016 – USD

Markets appear to have made up their mind about the US election. The US Dollar/Mexican Peso exchange rate is back to its medium term trend and looks a chance of falling below it in coming weeks Traders have adopted Dollar /Peso as an election trading proxy because Donald Trump’s policies are seen as damaging theMexican […]

Shooting Stars to Falling Stars

Markets  are focusing on the US economic data flow and the latest musing from the ECB ECB Draghi did more to cloud the picture rather than provide any clarity into the ECB thoughts. Allowing committee members more breathing room, which offers more opportunity to view the market reaction to the ECB tapering “sounding balloon “ […]

Market Focus on Commodity Currencies

Australian Dollar Rockets Higher  Equity markets have posted further gains over the past 24 hours, spurred on by the rally in oil markets when WTI came within a hair of $ 52.00  per barrel, posting a 15-month high at 51.94 on the back of the massive inventory draw on the DOE data. Commodity currencies, championed […]

Entering the Risk Event Vortex

US CPI data overnight was a little bit weaker than expected overnight with the headline rate on consensus at 0.3% month on month, while the core reading was slightly softer at 0.1 $ vs. .2 % expected month on month. The USD sold off initially on the core print, but quickly retraced, given the volatile […]

Top trade idea for October 18th, 2016 – USD

USD indexwas in  big sidewayspatternunfoldingsince start of 2015; slowandoverlappingpriceactionwith a personalityof a contra-trend movementthatlookscompleted. Wesee it partlyas a flatcorrection in blackwave IV, a threewavestructurewherefinalwave C should be madebyfivewaves. Well, wehaveseen a nicedeclinefrom November of 2015 counted in fivelegs, but as anending diagonal as shown on a dailychart. That’s a reversalpatternthatalreadycaused a strongbounce in May, so […]

Lull Before the Storm

It’s been an incredibly quiet start to the week as most currencies remain rangebound, but don’t let this sense of calm fool you, markets may be poised to explode. There is a  multitude of macro themes dominating the current Forex landscape, a Fed hike, ECB, and  BoJ tapering fears, and of course the US Elections. There […]

Week Ahead ECB and US Inflation to Headline Busy Week

Central banks, Chinese GDP and U.S. inflation expected to impact market The USD advanced against most majors with the Canadian and Australian dollars the outliers as commodity prices continue to rally after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production cut deal was announced. Chinese data is once again in the spotlight with the […]

Seeking Policy Direction

Dr Yellen’s Speech  On the surface, Dr. Yellen’s speech could be construed that the Fed is exploring new excuses to keep interest rates lower for longer, hinting that the economy has ‘a little more room to run’ than previously thought, but it is more likely a tactic to calm markets as we draw closer to […]

US Data, Fed and Earnings in Focus

Focus will very much be on the US as we see out the end of the week. Recent moves in the pound and oil have overshadowed the US a little bit but today, it should take centre stage once again. The US retail sales number stands out for me as being the key release today. […]

Top trade idea for October 14th, 2016 – USD/CNH

As the USD rises authorities in China are faced with a growing problem. Although they are allowing a gentle depreciation of the CNY against the USD, it is not keeping pace with USD gains. This showed up in trade data this week, where exports fell off a cliff. This appreciation by proxy puts pressure on […]

Fed Speeches and Oil Data Eyed, GBP Remains Key

It’s been a relatively slow start to trading on Thursday as investors absorb the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, weigh up the next move in sterling as it trades around its all-time low and look ahead to the EIA crude inventory data. We’ve been through a busy volatile period for the financial markets and while I […]

APAC Corner: China Data Disappoints

Disappointing trade data from China this morning saw Asia equities marked lower with a knock-on weaker USD in the G10 space. China’s trade data showed exports falling to their lowest levels in six months this morning. Import growth also missed to the downside, both in USD and CNY terms. 10:00 *(CN) CHINA SEPT TRADE BALANCE […]

Top trade idea for October 13th, 2016 – USDJPY

The USDJPY pair enjoyed quite a nice ride in the NFP week as it rose almost vertical. Such a move is typical for the pair as in the last year’s expectations were that the NFP is actually going to be pretty solid. To some extent, Friday’s release confirmed that. However, from a technical point of […]

APAC Corner: GBP Jumps While ZAR Crashes

A subdued Asia session with most G10 currencies range trading, content to let Asia stock markets take most of the heat after a soft Wall Street close last night. The exceptions being GBP/USD and USD/ZAR. GBP/USD Spiked this morning from its lows this morning at 1.2100 to 1.2325 before falling to 1.2240 before settling higher […]

Top trade idea for October 12th, 2015 – USD/JPY

The dollar goes from strength to strength as market participants grow more confident in foreseeing a rate rise in the US before the year is out. If the FOMC’s last policy meeting minutes, due to be published later on today, convey a more hawkish tone than what the market is expecting then this will only […]

USDCAD Canadian Dollar Lower Despite OPEC’s Oil Boost

The Canadian dollar depreciated on Tuesday after traders in Canada and the United States came back from holidays. Commodity currencies have been under performers this year as prices remain low. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) surprised markets with a tentative agreement to cut oil production and to discuss with non-OPEC members in […]

ZEW, Fed, Oil, GBP and Yen in Focus Today

European equity markets are expected to open a little softer on Tuesday, with traders continuing to eye moves in oil, the pound and the yen, as well as the latest economic sentiment surveys from the eurozone and Germany. The pound appeared to find some stability on Monday following the flash crash on Friday and yet […]

USDJPY – First Bullish Confirmation Achieved

The dollar has spent 2016 in a downtrend against the yen but has taken a bullish turn over the last few trading sessions, breaking through the ichimoku cloud on the daily chart and above the 55 and 89-day simple moving averages.This in itself is a very bullish move but it will become increasingly so if […]

USD/CAD – Loonie Recovers as Canadian Job Numbers Sparkle, US Payrolls Comes Up Short

USD/CAD is showing strong volatility on Friday, as the Canadian dollar posted sharp gains earlier but has retracted in North American trade. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at the 1.32 line. On the release front, the spotlight is on employment numbers on both sides of the border. Canadian employment change posted a huge gain of 67.2 thousand, […]

Week Ahead Pound Flash Crash Eclipses NFP

December Rate Hike still on the table despite weak jobs report The main story this week in the markets was the flash crash of British pound on Friday. The currency lost 6 percent in under two minutes at the start of the Asian trading session. There are multiple theories on what sparked the move with […]

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