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Week in FX Europe — No Thanksgiving for OPEC

OPEC punishes energy prices Russia to feel the squeeze Deflation demons awake on OPEC decision Look out for gold this weekend Energy prices continue to make records. Today, OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is back calling the shots, and putting the squeeze on global crude producers, commodity currencies, trade balances and Russia […]

Oil Continues Decline after OPEC Decision Last Week

US crude prices plunged on OPEC’s decision to not cut output, but light trading on Friday after the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday meant there could be more losses when markets return to full strength next week, traders said. U.S. crude’s front-month contract closed $7.54, or 10.2 percent, lower at $66.15 per barrel—its lowest settlement since […]

Falling oil prices to act as QE4

Oil prices tumble as OPEC play chicken Multiyear low Oil prices to act as QE4 Japanese inflation falls, pushing Nikkei higher Eurozone CPI to dominate after key fall in German CPI. A mixed-looking open is expected for European markets, following a particularly strong Asian session. The release of poor inflation data from Japan drove much […]

EUR/USD Rebound Post-EZ CPI a Preview for ECB Next Week?

Talking Points: EURUSD puts in another higher low on H4. USDOLLAR Index can’t break 11,372 high. See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Inflation expectations remain an issue headed into the final ECB policy meeting of the year next week, which is why the Euro hasn’t been able to mount a full-scale […]

Bitcoin Flat in Slow Sunday Session

Bitcoin is trading mostly flat in a slow Sunday session. We opened at $371.56 on BTC-E. From here prices rallied to a daily high of $377.99 around mid-day. But soon after BTC/USD fall back down to the $370 mark. We are currently trading not far from the lows at $373 per coin on BTC-E, $374 […]

Bitcoin Metrics Point to Disappointing Black Friday

Bitcoin is trading slightly down today. Prices closed $4.66 dollars lower on BTC-E after a roller-coaster session. The initial buying bid up prices to $385.76, a gain of 2.5 percent but in the next few hours all the gains were reversed and BTC closed the day at $371.34. We are currently trading not far from […]

Bitcoin Stable, No Sign of Selling (Yet)

Bitcoin is trading stable on Black Friday. There is no sign of large scale selling (yet). After opening at $365.58, BTC/USD fell $11 dollars to a daily low of $354 flat. But prices didn’t stay low for long and soon bitcoin staged a large $21dollar rally that topped out at $375 per coin. We are […]

Top Trade Idea For November 28th, 2014 – AUD/USD

Falling commodity prices – noticeably iron ore and oil – are putting further downward pressure on AUD/USD. Stakeholder interests are largely aligned here. The RBA, the government and business all have a lower exchange rate on their Christmas wish list. The current drop has pushed the pair below the four year lows, and a big […]

Chart Of The Day For November 28th,2014 – EUR/USD

By Ilya Spivak EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Short at 1.2710 Support: 1.2360, 1.2213, 1.1974 Resistance:1.2522, 1.2599, 1.2770 The Euro advanced to re-test the upper boundary of its 8-week down trend against the US Dollar having found a floor below the 1.24 figure. A daily close above trend line resistance at 1.2522 exposes the November 19 high at 1.2599. Alternatively, a reversal below the […]

Japan Imported US Oil First Time in 4 Years

Japan imported U.S. oil for the first time in four years as companies find ways around a four-decade ban on American exports and the Asian nation seeks to cut its dependence on Middle East suppliers. Japan, which relies on Saudi Arabia for 33 percent of its supply, imported about 300,000 barrels of oil from the […]

A Snapshot of Central Bank Thinking

Rate divergence to continue European Central Bank Credibility on the Line Inflation Stymies the Bank of Russia The Fed’s Game of Show and Tell Some of the main central banks continue to eye handcuffing investors to a low rate environment throughout the first half of 2015. The current exception to the loose monetary policy regime […]

GBPJPY ascending triangle looking bullish

The GBPJPY pair is currently trading within an ascending triangle formation, following a major round of buying in the past month and a half. Given both the technical and fundamental outlook, I expect to see the pair break out to the upside for a continuation higher. The daily chart shows that the pair is currently […]

Euro Heading Into Turbulent Fundamental Seas

Talking Points: Dollar: US Capital Markets are Closed, But Not the Currency Euro Heading Into Turbulent Fundamental Seas Yen Crosses Far More Sensitive to Policy Comments with Risk Sidelined Dollar: US Capital Markets are Closed, But Not the Currency With the US heading into its Thanksgiving holiday, liquidity was seen draining from the system. Given […]

Bitcoin Trading Flat Ahead of Black Friday

Bitcoin is trading flat ahead of the ”Black Friday” event. After opening at $363.78, prices fell slightly to $361 per coin but BTC recovered soon after. In the next few hours, a high of $369.99 was reached. This is where most of the action stopped however and BTC/USD spent the rest of the day in […]

Top Trade Idea For November 27th, 2014 – EURUSD

The chart above is quite a simple analysis in the sense that the eurusd is forming on the lower time-frames (actually ended) a terminal impulsive move and this pattern is visible on the four hours and the hourly chart as well. What is important at this move is that this lows the market made at […]

FX Market Volatility Will Return with Vigor in 2015

Rate Divergence Will Spur Volatility Commodity Prices under Pressure Emerging Markets Stuck in a Hard Place Central bank interest rate divergence, geopolitical events, and global growth expectations have been the three primary drivers of FX market volatility in late 2014, and these themes will continue to dominate the currency trade well into 2015. With so […]

OPEC Mixed on Oil Production Cuts as Shale Threat Rises

The two main drivers of the price of oil have been an increase of production in the U.S. with the use of shale oil technology, and a lower demand for energy as global growth slows. Geopolitical turmoil has taken a backseat to those two factors. Even rising violence in oil producing states has not deeply […]

Quiet day sees focus upon overall market sentiment

Quiet day sees focus upon overall market sentiment US GDP and consumer confidence paint alternate pictures UK GDP ahead. European markets are expected to move higher this morning, following a largely positive session overnight in Asia. The inability of the US markets to reach fresh highs did little to dampen investor sentiment elsewhere despite a […]

Japanese Yen May Rise as Year-End Capital Flows Begin to Emerge

Talking Points: Japanese Yen May See Recovery as Year-End Capital Flows Start to Emerge British Pound Looks to 3Q GDP Revision to Inform BOE Rate Hike Outlook US Dollar May Rise on Fed Tightening Bets if News-Flow Proves Supportive Seasonal factors may increasingly factor into price action as the on-coming Thanksgiving holiday in the US […]

Bitcoin Trading Little Changed as Range Narrows

Bitcoin is trading little change today. Prices opened at $371 and after a very small move to $374 we fall back down to a low of $362. We are currently quoted just below the $365 mark at $364.80. Prices are higher on OKCoin at $369 and BitStamp at $367 per coin. Here’s a one hour […]

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