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Top Trade Idea for 11/27/2015 – Fibonacci says sell EUR/AUD

In a contest between two weakening currencies, who wins? In the current environment, the currency with the largest central bank. I’d back the RBA to box well above its weight, but it’s just not in the same category as the ECB. A continuation of the current downtrend in EUR/AUD seems likely, and even Leonardo Bonacci […]

Top trade idea for November 26th, 2015 – EURAUD

Despite the overall bearish tone the ECB is having in the sense that the central bank is expected to cut the rates deeper into negative territory and to extend the quantitative easing program, I kind of like the EURAUD cross at current levels. The reason for that is the fact that the market seems to […]

Top trade idea for November 24th, 2015 – USD/CAD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the USD/CAD rate has returned to the 1.3370 resistance. A strengthening of the rate to 1.3456 is expected before the FOMC convenes with the rate carrying on afterwards to 1.3577. Any growth will cease after a break in the trend line from the 1.2831 minimum. Background The last idea I […]

Top trade idea for November 20th, 2015 – AUD/USD

The Aussie Dollar made a strong break above trend line resistance yesterday. In doing so it completed a bullish head and shoulder pattern. This was mainly about $US weakness following a strong run. However, the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars were amongst the best performers against $USin this correction This slow stochastic indicator in the box […]

Top trade idea for November 19th, 2015 – EURJPY

The eurjpy pair moved below the 61.8% retracement level and this may be just the consolidation area that we need for a spike higher in what seems to be at least a simple flat. If that is the case, the move to the upside should be an impulsive move, or a five wave structure, so […]

Top trade idea for November 18th, 2015 – Dollar Index

After Monday’s big dollar-bullish move, the foreign exchange market has been relatively mixed over the last 48 hours, not coincidentally mirroring the uncertainty traders are feeling toward future Federal Reserve policy. The widely-watched EUR/USD pairing fell to a fresh 7-month low in the mid-1.0600s before bouncing modestly today, while other European currencies, as well as […]

Top trade idea for November 17th , 2015 – USD

USD is again getting stronger against the EUR and JPY as stocks turn sharply up in the last 24 hours. We see room for more gains on S&P500 and DAX which means that US currency can stay in uptrend. German DAX keeps trading higher with sharp price move with an impulsive personality. We see index […]

Top trade idea for November 16th, 2015 – EUR/JPY

Trading opportunities for currency pair: after a gap in the morning, a pinbar formed at 131.30. As part of a correction, a growth to 133.21 can be expected. This idea’s lifetime is just one short week and will become invalid if we see a closing of above 130.64. What’s of interest at the moment? At […]

Top trade idea for November 13th, 2015 – AUD/USD

When a trend is well established it’s easy to become complacent about potential reversals. Many traders have done well this year riding the AUD/USD downtrend, and shorted yesterday’s bounce to 0.7150, where the price met the down trend line. However, there are signs that AUD/USD is forming a bear trap. Some traders look for a […]

Top trade idea for November 12th, 2015 – EURUSD

Despite the general belief that the eurusd is going to parity and below I would like to take my chances on a small bounce and while the risk-reward ratio is not that attractive here, there is still a temporary bottom that may form. The pair is coming down in a five wave structure on the […]

Top trade idea for November 11th, 2015 – GBP/USD

Much like yesterday afternoon, it has been a relatively quiet day in the FX markets due to the lack of any significant Eurozone or US data, and as North American banks are closed in observance of Veterans Day. But luckily, we’ve had some important employment data from the UK which caused a bit of volatility […]

Top trade idea for November 6th, 2015 – GBP/JPY

The Pound has been contained within a rising trend channel this month. Following yesterday’s comments from BOE Governor, Mark Carney, the Pound is testing channel support for the fourth time. The slow stochastic in the box below the chart shows that GBPJPY approaching support with good downward momentum.  However, it’s still well out of the […]

Top trade idea for November 5th, 2015 – AUDUSD

Back to the audusd pair as, while this is a relative small time frame, it has the power of coming after a triple zigzag to the downside on the daily chart and the move that followed seems to be an impulsive move on its own. Because of the retracement level after the first wave in […]

Top trade idea for November 4th, 2015 – USD/JPY

For USD/JPY traders, it’s been a particularly trying two and a half months. Since late August, the pair has carved out a tight 300-pip range between 118.50 and 121.50, never closing beyond this zone despite central bank decisions on both sides of the Pacific, a series of disappointing US jobs reports, and a raft of […]

Top trade idea for November 3rd , 2015 – USD/CHF

USDCHF has been moving sideways since end of March. We see five price swings between two trendlines that reminds us on a triangle formation. That’s an A-B-C-D-E pattern that occurs in the direction of a trend, so it’s a continuation formation that suggests more upside for USDCHF. In fact this bullish trend continuation is already […]

Top trade idea for October 30th, 2015 – AUD/NZD

This weekend the New Zealand All Blacks play the Australian Wallabies in the final match of the Rugby World Cup 2015. These teams between them trampled the cream of European Rugby (sell EUR, sell GBP), and the might of the USA, South Africa and Japan (sell USD, ZAR, JPY). Now, the fate of AUD/NZD may […]

Top trade idea for October 29th, 2015 – USDCAD

Complex correction for the fourth wave green in an impulsive move of a bigger degree is pointing towards lower levels as this X wave is one of a large construction. That being said, it is difficult to have a stop loss or invalidation area while it is mandatory to have a move below 1.28 before […]

Top trade idea for October 27th, 2015

Sharp move up last week to 2070 on S&P500 suggests that index is making an extended fifth wave, so uptrend can stay in play even till the end of the month. We see current price in subwave (iii) of  5 so more upside should follow after wave (iv) pullback is complete. There is room for […]

Top trade idea for October 26th, 2015 – EUR/USD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: after a break in the trend line, a fall for the euro to 1.0807 – 1.0838 is expected. It’s better to wait for a rebound to 1.1050/1.1060 on Monday. The idea will no longer be valid if the day closes above 1.1140. Background The last idea I did on the EUR/USD […]

Top trade idea for October 23rd, 2015 – AUD/USD

Last night’s statement by Mario Draghi now poses a clear question for markets about the extent to which the Fed will diverge from other central banks. While there is still a good case for the Fed to hike US rates in December, the ECB’s dovish stance increases the odds that it might delay. Paradoxically, this […]

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