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Top trade idea for October 21st, 2016 – USD

Markets appear to have made up their mind about the US election. The US Dollar/Mexican Peso exchange rate is back to its medium term trend and looks a chance of falling below it in coming weeks Traders have adopted Dollar /Peso as an election trading proxy because Donald Trump’s policies are seen as damaging theMexican […]

Top trade idea for October 20st, 2016 – AUDNZD

Above there is the AUDNZD cross that is shaping up a bearish setup that most likely started with the last move above 1.07. The idea behind this trade is that the current move should be one destined for parity, so it should be no wonder the take profit is close to that area. Trading with […]

Top trade idea for October 18th, 2016 – USD

USD indexwas in  big sidewayspatternunfoldingsince start of 2015; slowandoverlappingpriceactionwith a personalityof a contra-trend movementthatlookscompleted. Wesee it partlyas a flatcorrection in blackwave IV, a threewavestructurewherefinalwave C should be madebyfivewaves. Well, wehaveseen a nicedeclinefrom November of 2015 counted in fivelegs, but as anending diagonal as shown on a dailychart. That’s a reversalpatternthatalreadycaused a strongbounce in May, so […]

Top trade idea for October 17th, 2016 – EUR/AUD

Trading opportunities for currency pair: the price has left the triangle formation downwards. The trend line was broken with this departure. The target for the downward movement is 1.3774. The time the target regions will be reached is from 11th to 28th November of this year. As our entry point we need to look from […]

Top trade idea for October 14th, 2016 – USD/CNH

As the USD rises authorities in China are faced with a growing problem. Although they are allowing a gentle depreciation of the CNY against the USD, it is not keeping pace with USD gains. This showed up in trade data this week, where exports fell off a cliff. This appreciation by proxy puts pressure on […]

Top trade idea for October 13th, 2016 – USDJPY

The USDJPY pair enjoyed quite a nice ride in the NFP week as it rose almost vertical. Such a move is typical for the pair as in the last year’s expectations were that the NFP is actually going to be pretty solid. To some extent, Friday’s release confirmed that. However, from a technical point of […]

Top trade idea for October 12th, 2015 – USD/JPY

The dollar goes from strength to strength as market participants grow more confident in foreseeing a rate rise in the US before the year is out. If the FOMC’s last policy meeting minutes, due to be published later on today, convey a more hawkish tone than what the market is expecting then this will only […]

Top trade idea for October 7th, 2016 – USD

The sell-off in bonds has been a key driver for market thinking this week. As investors position for higher US interest rates we have also seen the US Dollar bought and gold sold. The 10 year note yield is at a key level heading into the Non-Farm Payroll support. Price is beginning to break below […]

Top trade idea for October 6th, 2016 – AUDUSD

The Australian dollar is preparing for a bounce against the US dollar and the setup I want to trade today is a small scalping one, in the sense that the consolidation area that you can see above is actually a bullish one. This is coming despite the fact that market seems to be really bearish […]

Top trade idea for October 05th, 2016 – NZD/CAD

Crude oil’s fundamental outlook continues to improve: as well as the planned OPEC oil output cut, we have seen surprise inventory destocking in the US for five straight weeks now. In addition to the prospects of reduced supply, the outlook for oil demand appears to be healthy too, judging by this week’s key US economic […]

Top trade idea for October 4th, 2016 – DAX

German DAX has been trading south for the last year or so but it might have been only a temporary decline if we consider that structure is pointing up because of overlapping decline from 12424 to 8690 low, labeled as an A-B-C correction. That said, traders should be aware of higher prices ahead as DAX […]

Top trade idea for September 30th, 2016 – EUR/NOK

Wondering why EUR is holding up so well against major currencies? Keen to trade oil, but put off by higher volatility? EUR/NOK offers exposure to both themes in a single trade. Oil production is 15% of Norway’s GDP, and around 40% of exports. Naturally, the NOK is highly sensitive to oil price moves, and the […]

Top trade idea for September 29th, 2016 – EURUSD

Despite the general belief that the EURUSD is going to the moon, as it is extremely well-bid, my take here is that at least a move lower to mid-1.10 area is in cards. What I’m looking for here is the end of a contracting triangle as part of a terminal impulsive wave and that triangle […]

Top trade idea for September 28th, 2016 – NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar’s recent advance has come to a halt recently after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that interest rates may need to be cut further from their current record low of 2.0%. The NZD’s retreat has been particularly noticeable against the Australian dollar as the AUD/NZD pair has surged back above […]

Top trade idea for September 23rd, 2016 – NZD/USD

Here are key sentences from two central bank statements this week Reserve Bank of New Zealand:  “Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range”. US Federal Open Market Committee:  “The Committee judges that the case for an […]

Top trade idea for September 22nd, 2016 – GBPUSD

It has been a while since we didn’t cover the GBPUSD pair here and there was a solid reason for it: the UK referendum. Before the vote, it was too risky to trade the pair, after the vote, needed some time to see how the pair settles. Having said that, and despite recent Fed decision […]

Top trade idea for September 20th, 2016 – NZD/USD

On the daily chart of NZD USD we are tracking a higher degree corrective wave B taking place, with price now trading in final stages of an ending diagonal that seems to be placed in blue wave C. That said we see price trading right above the lower channel line, from where we believe a […]

Top Trade Idea For September 16th, 2016 Gold

We’ve talked before about many traders’ penchant for asymmetric risk. Market surprises can lead to large moves. The Brexit drove fifteen big figure fall is a good recent example. The market – and the bookmakers – expected a clear Remain majority. As the count progressed the ultimate result became clear, and GBP tanked. Next week’s […]

Top trade idea for September 15th, 2016 – USDCAD

USDCAD preparing the break a bullish triangle as it is looking with interest at the b-d trend line that is rising with each and every candle that passes. The idea of this triangle is that price formed another triangle of a lower degree for the e-wave in magenta and now that that one is completed […]

Top trade idea for September 14th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

The New Zealand dollar has shown relative strength again today and the commodity currency could push further higher unless the country’s GDP comes out below expectations this evening (or Thursday morning NZ time). The New Zealand economy is expected to have expanded by a solid 1.1% in the second quarter compared to 0.7% in the […]