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Top trade idea for July 31st, 2015 – GBP/CAD

Last week GBPCAD arrived at a swing equivalent level where the last swing (“CD”) was the same size as the swing leading into it (“AB”). It’s quite common for trends to end at this point, setting up for a significant correction. The uptrend in GBPCAD had been losing momentum as it approached this swing equivalent […]

Top trade idea for July 30st, 2015 – AUDUSD

FOMC the other day brought nothing but more uncertainty in an FX world dominated by ranges this July as no one really wants to take a chance ahead of the September rate hike or at least ahead of the NFP to come next week. Fed suggested it still wants to see more jobs being created […]

Top Trade Idea for July 29th, 2015 – USD/JPY

It’s been a quiet overnight session for most major currencies as market participants refrained from placing large trades ahead of today’s FOMC meeting. As we noted yesterday, the central bank is unlikely to make any outright changes to monetary policy, but the wording of the accompanying statement could tilt the scales in the hotly-contested “September […]

Top Trade Idea for July 28th, 2015 –XAU/USD

Gold is trading at new lows, currently around the trendline connected from the start of 2014 where support can be found, especially if we consider the shape of an ending diagonal placed in fifth wave. That’s a very important reversal pattern that suggests a bounce in the second part of 2015 and maybe very strong […]

Top Trade Idea for July 24th, 2015 –USD/SGD

Sell an “M” Reversal in USD/SGD Conventional wisdom is that the USD will continue to strengthen as the first Fed rate hike approaches. However: Markets rarely go anywhere in a straight line The US Dollar index is up 4% over the last 5 weeks, and more than 20% since February 2014 Some of the most […]

Top trade idea for July 23rd, 2015 – EURUSD

I am looking at a bullish scenario for the eurusd pair and the fact that we’ve managed to break the pivotal area to the upside should provide support on each and every retest now. As a target to the upside the 1.14 should be retested again and that should be the moment where we will […]

Top Trade Idea for July 22nd, 2015 – EUR/USD

The one hour chart of the EUR/USD shows that it may have formed a near-term double top at 1.0965. This points to further price weakness and we may after all see the world’s most heavily traded FX pair break below May’s low and key support of 1.0820 before heading significantly lower in the coming weeks. […]

Top Trade Idea For July 17th, 2015 – NZD/JPY

It’s been a rough few weeks for the Kiwi Dollar with falling milk prices, weak inflation and expectations of a second rate cut at next week’s central bank meeting. Despite all that, the NZDJPY chart is showing early signs of a possible bullish divergence setup. If price rallies from here, it will confirm a lower […]

Top trade idea for July 16th, 2015 – USD/CAD

Usdjpy back above 124.00 level on the back of a strong US earning season and Greece being “fixed” but I would say it is only a matter of time until the downside should be checked again. The reason for that comes from the technical point of view and not from the fundamental in the sense […]

Top Trade Idea For July 15th, 2015 – GBP/JPY

For traders who weren’t paying close attention, it was easy miss today’s Bank of Japan meeting in the cacophony of today’s other high-impact news releases. And while the central bank did not make any changes to monetary policy, as anticipated, the bank’s policy board did ratchet down its expectations for growth and inflation, with potentially […]

Top trade idea for July 14th, 2015 – XAU/USD

Today’s Top Trade Idea – XAUUSD Gold is moving lower, now trading very close to previous low so we see downtrend as incomplete. We are tracking an updated count that shows an ending diagonal in wave 5). That’s a reversal pattern that occurs at the end of a larger trend, so we suspect that precious […]

Top trade idea for July 9th, 2015 – USDCAD

Still bearish on the usdcad despite recent pullback in the pair and from my point of view we have only one possibility for the structure above: a flat with a weak b wave and the last c wave to the upside, the one in red, is a corrective wave. This means it should be completely […]

Top Trade Idea for July 8th, 2015 – NZD/USD

The NZD/USD’s long-term downward trend has accelerated in the past couple of months. It has been driven lower by a number of factors, including the sharp falls in key commodity prices for the New Zealand economy such as powdered milk, the RBNZ turning dovish with a surprise rate cut and the US dollar rally gaining […]

Top Trade Idea for July 3rd, 2015 – Sell AUD/NZD

It’s been a lousy week for milk prices but arguably and even worse one for iron ore. This together with today’s soft Aussie retail sales figure has seen $A lose ground against the Kiwi from what looks as though it could be a significant turning point. Weekly Chart A longer term look at AUDNZD shows […]

Top Trade Idea For July 1st, 2015 – USD/CHF

The constant barrage of Greek headlines continues unabated, with the latest batch of rumors suggesting variously that the “no” votes for this weekend’s referendum are gaining momentum, that the Greek government will cancel this weekend’s referendum, that a breakthrough deal between Greece and her creditors is imminent, and that the two sides are further apart […]

Top Trade Idea For June 30th, 2015 – USD/CAD

USDCAD made a deep retracement in the last two months but with corrective personality from the highs, down into 38.2% Fibonacci level where pair found a low, possibly completed fourth wave. That said, despite a strong bearish turn, we see big trend still bullish, so we would not be surprised if pair will continue higher […]

Top trade idea for June 26th, 2015 – EUR/USD

On Monday, this blog piece laid out a strategy to go triple short EUR/USD. A key part of my overall strategy is identifying higher reward to risk ratios, and this set up ticks the box, with each entry risking between 50 and 100 points against potential gains of 500 to 900 points. The triple short […]

Top trade idea for June 25th, 2015 – AUDUSD

Despite desperate efforts from Governor Stevens and other RBA members to talk down the Australian dollar, the audusd pair is holding the recent levels quite good and the fact that is not able to clearly break the 0.77 area brings into question a possible reversal pattern. In this case, in the chart above I am […]

Top Trade Idea for June 24th, 2015 – EUR/JPY

The EUR/JPY has been climbing higher inside a bullish channel since bottoming out around 126.00 in early April. But the rally has now stalled with the pair finding strong resistance around the area between 140.75 and 141.00. As can be seen on the chart, as well as this area being a previous support/resistance it also […]

Top Trade Idea for June 19th, 2015 – EUR/NZD

The New Zealand Dollar has trended down strongly in recent weeks as its central bank embarked on a rate cutting cycle. Fuel was added to this trend when the latest GDP came in at a disappointing 0.2%. At the same time the Euro has been pushing higher against a range of currencies and the net […]

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