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Top trade idea for September 30th, 2016 – EUR/NOK

Wondering why EUR is holding up so well against major currencies? Keen to trade oil, but put off by higher volatility? EUR/NOK offers exposure to both themes in a single trade. Oil production is 15% of Norway’s GDP, and around 40% of exports. Naturally, the NOK is highly sensitive to oil price moves, and the […]

Top trade idea for September 29th, 2016 – EURUSD

Despite the general belief that the EURUSD is going to the moon, as it is extremely well-bid, my take here is that at least a move lower to mid-1.10 area is in cards. What I’m looking for here is the end of a contracting triangle as part of a terminal impulsive wave and that triangle […]

Top trade idea for September 28th, 2016 – NZD/USD

The New Zealand dollar’s recent advance has come to a halt recently after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand suggested that interest rates may need to be cut further from their current record low of 2.0%. The NZD’s retreat has been particularly noticeable against the Australian dollar as the AUD/NZD pair has surged back above […]

Top trade idea for September 23rd, 2016 – NZD/USD

Here are key sentences from two central bank statements this week Reserve Bank of New Zealand:  “Our current projections and assumptions indicate that further policy easing will be required to ensure that future inflation settles near the middle of the target range”. US Federal Open Market Committee:  “The Committee judges that the case for an […]

Top trade idea for September 22nd, 2016 – GBPUSD

It has been a while since we didn’t cover the GBPUSD pair here and there was a solid reason for it: the UK referendum. Before the vote, it was too risky to trade the pair, after the vote, needed some time to see how the pair settles. Having said that, and despite recent Fed decision […]

Top trade idea for September 20th, 2016 – NZD/USD

On the daily chart of NZD USD we are tracking a higher degree corrective wave B taking place, with price now trading in final stages of an ending diagonal that seems to be placed in blue wave C. That said we see price trading right above the lower channel line, from where we believe a […]

Top Trade Idea For September 16th, 2016 Gold

We’ve talked before about many traders’ penchant for asymmetric risk. Market surprises can lead to large moves. The Brexit drove fifteen big figure fall is a good recent example. The market – and the bookmakers – expected a clear Remain majority. As the count progressed the ultimate result became clear, and GBP tanked. Next week’s […]

Top trade idea for September 15th, 2016 – USDCAD

USDCAD preparing the break a bullish triangle as it is looking with interest at the b-d trend line that is rising with each and every candle that passes. The idea of this triangle is that price formed another triangle of a lower degree for the e-wave in magenta and now that that one is completed […]

Top trade idea for September 14th, 2016 – NZD/JPY

The New Zealand dollar has shown relative strength again today and the commodity currency could push further higher unless the country’s GDP comes out below expectations this evening (or Thursday morning NZ time). The New Zealand economy is expected to have expanded by a solid 1.1% in the second quarter compared to 0.7% in the […]

Top trade idea for September 14th, 2016 – AUD/USD

On the daily chart of AUD/USD we are observing big consolidation pattern in fourth wave which is definitely not a simple one. It’s a very complex structure that is underway for around 12 months now so we can expect a very strong break down once the pattern is finished. Latestsubstructuressuggestthatwave IV can be a triangle, […]

Top trade idea for September 9th, 2016 – GBP/USD

After plummeting to a post Brexit low around 1.28 in early July, the Pound has bounced around in what looking more and more like a large, triangle is shaped trading range. This week’s high at 1.3445 looks like it might have been the second peak in this triangle pattern. The clue to this possibility is […]

Top trade idea for September 8th, 2016 – AUDUSD

The audusd pair above is forming a rising wedge on this time frame and despite the recent jump higher and overall bullish character of the market, short side should be favored. The pain for bears was seen for bulls as well as the more aggressive the selling was, equally aggressive buyers stepped in. This makes […]

Top Trade Idea For September 2nd, 2016 EUR/GBP

Reversing Brexit Sentiment The conventional wisdom when the British voted to leave the European Union was that the UK economy would suffer much more than the continent. Naturally, this saw the EUR make strong gains against GBP. Despite a lack of clarity around the exit mechanism, EUR/GBP is showing signs that those initial fears could […]

Top trade idea for September 1st, 2016 – USDJPY

The chart above is the USDJPY pair and shows the whole move down from above the 120 level to the all-important 100 one. The 100 seems to be more of a psychological level as it has virtually no importance from a technical point of view. However, the market always finds some magic surrounding round numbers […]

Top trade idea for August 26th, 2016 – USD/SGD

The annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole is here at last. MsYellen’s set speech, entitled “The Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Toolkit”, may or may not attempt to move market thinking towards a faster interest rate tightening cycle. Before you say “meh”, consider the market positioning. The forward interest rate curve varies but is […]

Top trade idea for August 25th, 2016 – EURAUD

This EURAUD cross looks bullish as market is forming a possible head and shoulders formation that had the dip right from the potential bouncing place. This is the 5th time the pair is jumping from that area and it open the gates for a prolonged move above 1.50. Ahead of a US dollar driven event […]

Top trade idea for August 23rd, 2016 – USD/NOK

On the 4h chart of crude oil we can see that price made a nice rally from the lows, for now in three waves but because of strong bullish momentum with sharp price action up to 161.8% Fibonacci ratio, we believe market made wave 3) as part of a bullish impulse. That said, current downward […]

Top trade idea for August 19th, 2016 – AUD/USD

The Aussie has lost upward momentum against $US this week. On the chart this is indicated by: A trend peak under the upper Bollinger Band following the strong momentum peak above it and The slow stochastic indicator now trending down from the overbought zone. From here, a break below the 20 day moving average would […]

Top trade idea for August 18th, 2016 – EURUSD

The EURUSD looks set to completely retrace the Brexit move if one is judging by the aggressiveness of this bullish reaction. However, from my point of view this is nothing but a bearish triangle part of a double combination and this triangle needs to break lower, not higher. That being said, staying short and fading […]

Top trade idea for August 12th, 2016 – USD/JPY

Many traders do their utmost to avoid crowded trades. Usually, they were hurt at some stage in their trading career by a “buy the rumour, sell the fact” scenario. That is, their analysis was right, but the market moved the “wrong” way. This is the reason some traders will deliberately seek different parameters, different ways […]