By DailyFX on Feb 22, 2012 01:58:56 GMT
By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
THE TAKEAWAY: S&P 500 technical positioning calls for a bearish reversal below the 2011 yearly high, hinting the safe-haven US Dollar is set to recover amid risk aversion.
S&P 500 – Prices put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern below resistance at 1376.10, the May 2011 top, hinting a move lower is ahead. Negative RSI divergence reinforces the case for a downside scenario. Initial support lines up at 1358.60 and is reinforced by a rising channel bottom at 1352.20. A break below that exposes the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1331.40.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices broke resistance at 105.61, the 123.6% Fibonacci extension, with the door now open to challenge the 138.2% level at 106.81. The 105.61 level has been recast as near-term support, with a reversal back below that exposing 103.66 once again.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices pushed higher after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern above support 1714.60, with buyers once again testing resistance at 1763.00. A break above this boundary exposes the November 8 high at 1802.80.
Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Unchanged from yesterday: “Prices remain wedged between resistance at 9863, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, and the 23.6% Fib expansion at 9788. A break higher exposes the 61.8% retracement at 9908 while a push through support targets the 38.2% expansion level at 9732.”
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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By DailyFX on Feb 21, 2012 03:05:37 GMT
EUR/USD: Inability to close below previous key support at 1.3025 leaves the market locked in some multi-day consolidation, with no clear short-term directional bias. At this point, the key levels to watch above and below comes in by 1.3325 and 1.2970 respectively, and a daily close above or below will be required to open the [...]
By DailyFX on Feb 20, 2012 01:53:59 GMT
Strategy: Pending Short EURUSD put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above support at 1.3055, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, hinting a recovery is ahead. Initial resistance lines up in the 1.3157-1.3220 area, with a break above that exposing the February 9 swing high at 1.3321. We continue to see the overall bias as [...]
By DailyFX on Feb 17, 2012 04:51:54 GMT
US DOLLAR – Prices turned lower after putting in a Hanging Man candlestick below support-turned-resistance in the 9823-56 region, with a deeper pullback from here seeing the first layer of major support at 9679. Alternatively, renewed upward momentum through resistance targets 9908. Daily Chart – Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
By DailyFX on Feb 16, 2012 02:45:10 GMT
— Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com EUR/USD: The market has now broken back below key support at 1.3025 to suggest that the corrective rally in 2012 has come to an end and a fresh medium-term lower top is now in place by 1.3325. At this point, we would look for [...]
By DailyFX on Feb 15, 2012 03:15:17 GMT
Period Data Released Estimate Actual Pips Change (1 Hour post event ) Pips Change (End of Day post event) 3Q 2011 11/15/2011 7:00 GMT 0.5% 0.5% +12 -62 3Q P 2011 German Gross Domestic Product Economic activity in Germany increased 0.5% in the third quarter after expanding 0.3% during the three-months through June as households [...]
By DailyFX on Feb 14, 2012 02:58:33 GMT
The EURUSD ends Monday on a weak note and is nearing channel support and the Friday low at 13155. A drop below should find support at 13120. The critical level for the larger trend is the 2/6 low at 13026. Pattern is constructive above 13026 towards Fibonacci objectives at 13435 and 13630. 13220 is resistance [...]
By DailyFX on Feb 13, 2012 02:58:32 GMT
60 Minute Bars The break above end of January / early February consolidation is expected to extend towards the mid 13400s. The 50% retracement of the decline from the October high comes in at 13435 and bullish channel resistance is just above that level. Of note however is the 5 wave structure from the 2/6 [...]
By DailyFX on Feb 10, 2012 03:01:28 GMT
GBP/USD: Gains have stalled out just shy of the 200-Day SMA for now and the market looks to be entering a fresh period of consolidation before considering the next major move. Key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.5930 and 1.5730 respectively, and a daily close above or below will be required [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Feb 9, 2012 04:34:04 GMT
GOLD our move to a neutral stance on gold in the short term has been validated over the past week as the strong uptrend has clearly stalled. The range overnight was $1,724 to $1,751. Gold looks likely to maintain this range for the short term as investors seek further developments and clarification of the situation [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Feb 8, 2012 02:30:18 GMT
The euro seems to have a mind of its own today being the best performer out the risk currencies, reaching levels we haven’t for 2 months. Perhaps statements from Sarkozy and Merkel that Greece will not be allowed to go bankrupt has helped boost confidence in the single currency and as Greece and the troika [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Feb 7, 2012 02:25:26 GMT
The jaw-boning seems to be working for the Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan as USD/JPY drifts higher today towards the 76.80 level. Again between 76.50 and 76.80 is where the market is comfortable for the moment. While the market contemplates its next move, it was timely of the Finance Ministry to release data [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Feb 6, 2012 02:42:38 GMT
The euro continued to lose ground and it was mostly a one way affair in Asian trade today after reaching 1.3206 on Friday due to positive US NFP and employment data. On London open the tune was the same but the rhythm and beat came from Greece. The world is now waiting for Greece to [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Feb 2, 2012 01:59:38 GMT
EUR/USD started the day in London paring gains made yesterday after better manufacturing data eased worries about global growth. The market was quite subdued until Chinese Premier Wen suggested the possibility of more involvement in the developments of the EFSF and the ESM as well as positive comments regarding the shared currency and the euro [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Feb 1, 2012 01:45:18 GMT
USD/JPY continued its five-day losing streak in early London time as it tests the 76.00 big figure. At the time of writing USD/JPY is 76.05 which is today’s low so far. We hear there are stop losses (large) below this figure but margin traders are holding the support line at the moment in the hope [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Jan 31, 2012 02:02:05 GMT
The Brussels Summit ended yesterday with no favourable resolution for the Greek saga leaving the market showing its frustration on the EUR/USD driving it down to 1.3075. Apparently German Chancellor Angela Merkel shared the same frustration with the Greek government’s failure to carry out its economic reform. Euro found its base at 1.3135 during early [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Jan 30, 2012 01:59:33 GMT
After reaching 78.27 last week on concerns over Japan’s first monthly deficit in nearly 30 years and a decline in growth outlook, USD/JPY started this week in familiar territory again 76.60 – 76.80. Other than Japan’s Jobless rate tomorrow, there isn’t much news to trade with. Perhaps of more interest is the EUR/JPY movement where [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Jan 27, 2012 03:08:05 GMT
EUR/USD spent the day consolidating after peaking at 1.3183 yesterday. If the technical traders are right, we may have seen the high for a long while and the completion of a technical retracement which began from 1.2624 (16 Jan). However we’re not totally convinced and we cautiously think 1.3244 may be the top if 1.2950 [...]
By forexnews on Jan 26, 2012 03:42:24 GMT
EUR/USD: The market has finally managed to find some bids and although the broader underlying trend remains intensely bearish, the risks from here are for additional corrective gains back towards the 100-Day SMA in the 1.3400 area before the next lower top carves out. Some falling trend-line resistance has already been broken on the daily [...]
By Compass Global Markets on Jan 25, 2012 03:17:14 GMT
EUR/USD traded within a narrow range during Asian session (1.3014 – 1.3041) today perhaps due to the Lunar Year celebration. The same could be expected for the rest of the week for Asia if no surprises hit the market. At the time of writing, euro spiked up to 1.5050 as German IFO was released. Market [...]
