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GBP/USD Stalls at the 1.62 Handle and Wedge Resistance
Forex Technical Update Previous: GBP/USD Retreats from 1.6164 After Poor UK Data (4/25) GBP/USD GBP/USD’s reaction to Bernanke’s speech trumped the reaction to the poor GDP. The GDP data pushed the GBP/USD off its 1.6165 resistance, but Bernanke’s speech (which gave no new information) pushed the GBP/USD above the resistance until stalling in the 4/26 US session around 1.62, and the rising wedge resistance. There seems to be a major development in the GBP/USD daily chart. Price has broken above the 1.6164 high from 10/31/2012.
Daily Forex Analysis – April 26, 2012
by forexcycle.com AUDUSD Analysis. of the downtrend from 1.0855. However, as long as 1.0463 level holds, the price action from 1.0225 is treated as consolidation of the downtrend, and one more fall to 1.0000 is still possible after consolidation.
AUD/USD – Rising Channel Breaks Above Declining Channel and Tests 1.0390 Pivot
Forex Technical Update Previous: AUD/USD Breaks Descending Triangle…(4/23) AUD/USD The AUD/USD continued to rally past the 200-hour simple moving average as well as a declining channel resistance near 1.0350 after Bernanke’s speech yesterday. There was not much new to go on, but market chatter explains the USD-weakness by noting Bernanke is still open to using monetary stimulus measures to help stimulate the economy. Price action seen in the 1H chart shows a rising channel breaking above the declining channel resistance.
USD/CHF Testing Support Trendline
Forex Technical Update Previous: USD/CHF Awaiting Breakout from a Triangle Pattern (4/17) USD/CHF Looking at the daily USD/CHF chart, connecting the 10/27/2011 low of 0.8562 with the 4/2/2012 low of 0.9001 is a rising trendline that represents support. The market is directionless as it has been trading in a sideways pattern marked by highs at 0.9331 and lows at 0.8927 . The projected triangle does not really matter anymore since price is very near the apex and a breakout can occur sideways. Notice that the support zone is between 0.8927 and 0.90
USD/JPY Backs Off From Trendline After Bernanke’s Speech; BoJ is Next Risk Event
Forex Technical Update Previous: USD/JPY Attacks Channel Resistance With Nascent Bullish Bias (4/24) USD/JPY The FOMC statement did not provide anything new and the USD/JPY continued to recent attack on the trendline seen in the 4H chart. It appeared to be a market trying to anchor into a rising channel out of the declining channel from the 84.10 area. A break above 81.85 , and a push of the RSI above 60 would have been some clear signs of this breakout. However, after Bernanke spoke today, the market was NOT committed to this scenario.
Daily Forex Analysis – April 25, 2012
by forexcycle.com USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY stays in a downward price channel on 4-hour chart, and remains in downtrend from 84.17, the price action from 80.31 is likely consolidation of the downtrend.. Now the fall from 81.77 would possibly be resumption of the downtrend, another fall to 79.50 area is possible over the next several days. Key resistance is now at 81.77, only break above this level will indicate that the fall from 84.17 had completed at 80.31 already, the further rise to 83.00 could be seen.
Video Preview: FOMC Decision
FOMC Preview – Clip from Wednesday’s Briefing: To join our Market Intelligence Briefings daily – sign up here . This is a quarterly meeting for the FOMC so we will get the FOMC statement at 12:30PM EDT, followed by the newest forecasts on growth, unemployment, and inflation at 2PM, and then Fed Chairman Bernanke’s Press Conference at 2:15PM. No changes is expected to the Fed’s asset purchase program, and it is expected that the Fed will reaffirm its plans to keep interest rates extraordinarily low through at least late 2014. After stronger data to start the year, recently the US has posted a poor March NFP, a relapse in housing, and loss of momentum in new order activity for manufacturers (including today’s report on durable goods).
USD/CAD Cracking Range Support
Forex Technical Update Previous: USD/CAD – Loonie Strengthens After Initial Reaction to Canadian Retail Sales Data (4/24) USD/CAD The USD/CAD continues lower with the Loonie buoyed by its correlation to rising oil prices. It has been ranging since February roughly between 0.9840 and 1.0050 . During today’s 4/25 European- US trading session, the market is breaking below the 0.9840 range support. The 4H RSI shows persistent bearish momentum developing as it tagged 30, stayed below 60, back below 40 and is tagging 30 again
GBP/USD Retreats from 1.6164 After Poor UK GDP
Forex Technical Update Previous: GBP/USD Testing 1.6164 Resistance with Short-term Bullish Momentum (4/24) UK’s preliminary estimate for Q1 GDP came out to be -0.2% disappointing after forecast for 0.1%. The previous quarters GDP was revised down to -0.3% from -0.2%. This can be interpreted as the second time the UK economy has entered a recession since the financial crisis. In the currency markets, this should pressure the pound
USD/JPY Attacks Channel Resistance with Nascent Bullish Bias
Forex Technical Update Previous: USD/JPY - Testing if Market is Flat Or Bullish (4/23) USD/JPY The previous update on USD/JPY theorized that if the market stayed above 80.80 – near 61.8% retracement of the initial and failed attempt to break a downwards channel resistance – then we are more likely to be in a bullish development then a flat market development. Price action seeing a higher high and higher low also suggests a bullish development. As we start the 4/24 Asian trading session, the USD/JPY continues to rally from the 80.80 area and at 81.50 is attacking the declining channel resistance again. The RSI is at 60, and a push above confirms the nascent bullish bias
RBNZ Preview as NZD/USD Hovers Above a Support Cluster
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets tomorrow under the helm of governor Allan Bollard at 5:00PM EDT. This risk event has not been a relatively important influence on the NZD/USD compared to factors from the USD side like Quantitative Easing and general risk sentiment . With that said, the March 8 RBNZ statement did rule out rate increases since it was able to “help contain inflation”. Nick Nasad, chief market analyst of FXTimes notes: “Last week, CPI for the 1st quarter came in at 0.5% q/q, slightly below expectations, while the annual pace was at 1.6% – a rate that should not worry the RBNZ enough to warrant raising interest rates anytime soon
Daily Forex Analysis – April 24, 2012
by forexcycle.com USDJPY Analysis. Being contained by the upper border of the price channel on 4-hour chart, USDJPY pulls back from 81.77, suggesting that a cycle top is being formed. Deeper decline to test 80.31 previous low support would likely be seen later today, a breakdown below this level could signal resumption of the downtrend from 84.17, then next target would be at 79.50 area. Key resistance is now at 81.77, only break above this level could signal completion of the downtrend
I just longed the EURAUD… What do you think?
If you are monitoring the EURAUD I’ll appreciate your input… I have it in a very clear bullish market condition on the long term charts. My next LT resistance level is at 1.3030, and my take profit order is at 1.2994. This is the signal that triggered my trade: Entry was on 1.2804 and my
EUR/USD Building Bullish Bias; 1.33 is Resistance Above 1.3225
Forex Technical Update Previous: EUR/USD Fails to Maintain Short-term Bullish Momentum; At Trendline (4/23) EUR/USD The EUR/USD found support at the 1.31 level. There was an initial break of a very short-term trendline, after which the market failed to sustain the break and rallied. The chart above shows an adjusted trendline connecting to low near 1.31 . Now in the 4/24 European- US trading session, the market appears to have established another support pivot at 1.3150 .
EUR/GBP Testing the 0.8141 Support Pivot
Forex Technical Update Previous: EUR/GBP Extending Decline to 0.8141 and 0.8066 (4/18) EUR/GBP The EUR/GBP has been trading lower with persistent short-term bearish momentum seen in the 4H chart. The RSI has remained below 60 and has tagged 30. All the moving averages line up to reflect a bearish mode. Price action has been showing an impulse wave development, and we may be closing in on a terminal wave
AUD/JPY Respecting Consolidation Support for Now
Forex Technical Update Previous: AUD/JPY in a Short-term Double Top Attempt (4/19) AUD/JPY The 4H AUD/JPY chart shows a market that was falling from a triple top, but is supported by a rising support. The RSI shows that the market is in consolidation mode as the 4H reading oscillates between 40 and 60. Prior to this slightly rising channel consolidation, the market was in a downtrend, but now is trading either in a rising channel, or an ascending triangle.
EUR/CAD – Preview: Retail Sales to Help Build Our CAD Bias
Release: CAN Retail Sales m/m (Feb) Consensus Forecast: 0.2% Previous: 0.5% Release: CAN Core Retail Sales m/m (Feb) Consensus Forecast: 0.8% Previous: -0.5% Date/Time: 04/22/12 8:30AM EDT (12:30 GMT) Impetus Needed for Next Move in CAD The Canadian dollar has had a better time of it recently compared to the Australian and New Zealand dollar – its commodity currency counterparts. The reason being that the Canadian economy has played off the strength of the US economy in the 1Q as well as higher well prices. Recently, the CAD has seen its added some strong fundamentals in the form of better-than-expected employment data for March and a Bank of Canada statement that showed a central bank which improved its outlook for the economy and sees inflation perkier than expected. Countering those positive fundamentals we do however see that the there is a slowing in the US macro data, and Friday’s Canada inflation release softened some of the fundamental bias as both core and headline CPI in annual terms came in below 2%
Daily Forex Analysis – April 23, 2012
by forexcycle.com USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY is testing the resistance of the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart. A clear break above the channel resistance will indicate that the downward movement from 84.17 has completed at 80.81 already, then the following upward move could bring price to 83.00 area.
Are you monitoring the GBPNZD? Check this out
Take a look at its weekly chart: I know, this is the weekly chart, and it is kind of complicated to use the weekly chart to take intraday trades. But let me tell you something, the insights that you can get off both, the weekly and the daily charts can be invaluable. For instance, after
S&P 500 Keeps Short-term Bearish Momentum; Testing Key Trendline
Equities Technical Update S&P500 S&P500 futures has been in a consolidation mode after falling from near 1418 down to about 1355 . The consolidation brought the price level back to 1390, holding below the 1400 handle, and more or less respecting the support of the double top seen in the 4H chart. Also, the RSI reading has tagged 30, failed to break above 60, and is now returning back below 40.
