Top Stories
Lower Your Expectations!
This is what Central Banks are effectively saying to the marketplace. Recent actions and comments are starting to show what some of us already know– that Central banks alone cannot manage the global economy and the artificial conditions they create only impede and prevent the real economy finding its way.
Overnight, the Bank of Japan did [...]
Japanese Recession!
Last night, Japan reported GDP figures that came in worse than expected, showing a quarterly decline of .9% vs. an expectation of a .5% decline, pushing the YoY figure to a negative 3.7% vs. the expectation of a negative 1.9%. By definition, this puts Japan in recession as the effects of the natural disaster there [...]
Global Stagflation!
Well it looks like Central bankers and policy-makers have done it now! They have painted themselves into a stagflationary environment and I’m not sure they know how to get out of it. As I mentioned yesterday, the UK is dealing with many “flations”, and stagflation appears to be just around the bend.
Earlier this morning, the [...]
Inflation Running Wild!
At least that’s what is happening in the UK, where CPI data came in showing 4.5% inflation, way hotter than the expectation of 4.1% and now getting to the point where the BOE may have to act. It should be noted, however, that this figure is from last month and was recorded prior to the [...]
International Intrigue!
Over the weekend, the Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dominique Strauss- Kahn was arrested in NYC on sexual assault charges. This is setting up to have the potential for a great spy thriller novel and/or movie. While the presumption of innocence is part of our legal system, talk of set-ups and political gamesmanship [...]
Down But Not Out!
With all of the talk about the risk in the Euro zone from the debt crisis, the Euro is showing remarkable resiliency. This morning’s better than expected GDP figures confirm growth in the region, and next week’s meeting of EMU Finance Ministers could produce a long-awaited solution for the debt crisis that would assuage market [...]
Sell In May And…
The old Wall St. adage, “sell in May and go away” may be in play! Sorry folks, had to do it. But seriously, with the end of QE2 coming, weaker economic data, and commodities beginning to sell off, markets are noticeably weaker across the board.
There are a number of converging factors going into today’s market [...]
UK Inflation!
In what seemingly is an exercise in futility when it comes to rising prices in the UK, the BOE inflation report was released earlier this morning and showed that indeed they are concerned about inflation. The report noted that CPI could eclipse 5% by year end, but the assumption is that in the long-term, it [...]
Euro Danger!
Where there’s smoke, there is fire and it is no different for the Greece and the Euro zone. The stories that are being floated insinuate everything from Greece leaving the Euro zone, restructuring debt, or receiving further bailouts. At this point it is difficult to determine what is actually going to happen, but one thing [...]
Chinese Fire Drill!
I jokingly refer to the economic meeting taking place this week between the US and China as this really is more of an exercise in futility than any meaningful policy agreement. It basically boils down to the US stance that China needs to allow its currency to float freely in the marketplace, and China rebuffing [...]
Commodities Collapse!
As we all know by now, the inputs that make up the global economy are all inter-twined and that’s what makes the forex market so interesting. Yesterday, commodities prices collapsed across the board, bringing down prices in oil, precious metals, and even agricultural products. Oil is now under $100, gold under $1500, and silver back [...]
Decisions, Decisions!
This morning, I am talking about the rate policy decisions that have taken place in both the UK and the Euro zone. While both decisions produced no change which was expected, weakening economic data may allow both Central banks to remain accommodative for some time.
Prior to the rate announcement this morning, UK PMI data came [...]
Rough Patch Ahead?
The data is starting to get a bit weaker and the market looks as though it is preparing for an economic “rough patch” that may be just around the corner. While we all know that QE2 will officially be coming to an end shortly, how long that lasts is anyone’s guess.
The first indicator of unemployment [...]
Fear Of Retaliation?
This morning the markets are starting out clearly in risk aversion mode as there is a sense of fear of retaliation from Al Qaeda due to the killing of their leader Osama Bin Laden. However, it looks as though everything is lower, including the price of oil and gold which given the risk in the [...]
Bin Laden Bounce!
Overnight it was revealed that Osama Bin Laden has finally been brought to justice and was killed by US forces. The sense of relief that came over the markets may be short-lived however as there are still many sources of risk in the global economy, each posing a different threat.
Oil sold off immediately on the [...]
The Real Fairytale!
This morning is all about fairytales as the Royal Wedding in the UK has drawn the attention of watchers worldwide and has also closed London for business today as it is a bank holiday. However, the real fairytale may be the news and data we have been seeing here in the US and the policy [...]
Dollar Pains Mean Gains!
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting and ensuing press conference was essentially more of the same, though the new theater surrounding the announcement seemed to do more to distract from the policy statement than anything.
As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged and committed to leaving rates low for an “extended” period. So the markets took this as a [...]
Fed Fun!
Today all eyes and ears are on the FOMC meeting and the new “format”, where Fed Chairman Bernanke will hold a Q&A session after the release of the interest rate decision. So make not of the time changes, as the rate decision has been moved up to 12:30 EST, with the press conference to follow [...]
Transparency But Not Truth!
Tomorrow will the be the first of the new, transparent Fed where Bernanke will attempt to get out in front of the population and attempt to get people to suspend their disbelief. While the Fed Chairman is clearly on the wrong side of public opinion with QE2 and the inflation it has caused, trying to [...]
Fed Watching!
The week ahead! This morning European markets are closed for the Easter holiday just as the US markets were closed on Friday. With nothing major occurring over the weekend the markets look poised to resume last week’s trend: Dollar weakness.
This week will also be interesting in that it will be the first of Fed Chairman [...]
