Technical Outlook
Canadian Dollar Positioning Difference Soars
The difference between commercial and speculative Canadian Dollar positioning is the largest since March 2011.
Daily Forex Analysis – May 7, 2012
by forexcycle.com AUDUSD Analysis. AUDUSD breaks below 1.0225 previous low support and reaches as low as 1.0110, suggesting that the downtrend from 1.0855 (Feb 29 high) has resumed. Further decline could be expected after a minor consolidation, and next target would be at 1.0000 area.
Sterling Correction Mired By Safe-Haven Flows- Selling Euro Advances
Key elections in Europe have stoked debt concerns with the British pound toping the performance chart early in at the open. Key trade levels on EURUSD and GBPUSD.
USD/JPY – Key Levels in the Short-term
Forex Technical Update USD/JPY 1H Chart 11:30AM EDT 5/7 The USD/JPY fell after Friday’s poor NFP . Both USD and JPY gained during the risk averse reaction, but since the factor is coming from the US, the Japanese Yen has an edge in this risk flow. The 1H chart shows the market consolidating before testing last week’s low near 79.60 . The consolidation and even a bit of rally is within the context of a newly developing downtrend at least in the short-term.
EURUSD Gaps Lower and AUDUSD Trades to 2012 Low
Crude has been leading the latest ‘risk off’ wave and is therefore a market that FX traders should keep an eye on.
USD/CAD – 0.9900 to Turn from Resistance to Support
Forex Technical Update Previous: USD/CAD Holds Below 0.99 and Maintains Bearish Bias (5/1) USD/CAD 4H Chart 5/7/2012 9:40 AM EDT During the 4/30-5/4 trading week, the USD/CAD rallied from 0.98 , but was stuck below 0.99 for most of the week, until Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll data came out. Then the CAD lost across the board, as WTI crude oil fell more than 5%, below 100 (The CAD is correlated to oil, so a drop in oil prices was coupled with the drop in CAD). The 4H chart shows that the market pushed above 0.99 sharply, and pushed the 4H RSI reading above 70, establishing sideways to bullish momentum in the short to medium term. There is a throwback at the moment as the 5/7 US trading session gets underway.
Euro Finds Some Support Below 1.3000; Fresh EUR/GBP Long Taken
Overall, a choppy session of trade early Monday as markets consolidate their recent declines. However, we find comfort in our fresh EUR/GBP long position…
US Dollar On the Verge of Near-Term Trend Reversal as S&P 500 Sinks
The US Dollar is on the verge of overturning the down trend established since mid-March while the S&P 500 is testing the lowest levels in two months.
USD/CHF Breaks Above Triangle Resistance
Forex Technical Update Previous: USD/CHF Breaks Above Channel Within Sideways Market (5/2) USD/CHF Daily Chart 5/6/2012 EDT The USD/CHF ended the 5/4 NFP session rallying toward a triangle resistance seen in the daily chart. To start the 5/7 trading week, it is rallying sharply above the declining resistance as well as break above a recent resistance pivot at 0.9250 . The RSI reading is pushing above 60, reflecting lost of the bearish momentum established in the rundown from 0.9670 area to 0.8930 .
Stocks Realizing What the Currency and Crude Markets Did Months Ago
Traders and reporters are buzzing about the crude oil collapse. Since crude has been leading equities, don’t expect equities to hold their lows. The early week plan is to short a small AUDUSD bounce.
Risk Aversion from Poor NFP Eventually Boosting USD
Forex Technical Update Previous: USD Index Fails to Clear Support, Breaks Above Channel (5/2) USD Index 1H chart 5/4/2012 3:43PM EDT The US NFP release showed a disappointing 115K job increase in April, down from the already tepid 154K and missing estimates that have been scaling to 160K, and even 140K in some sources. The poor data did not have an immediately clear effect for the USD. However, after risk aversion filtered through, the USD was supported at a recent consolidation support as well as 200-hour simple moving average. The RSI remained above 40 and tagged 70 after the dust settled reflecting a persistent bullish momentum in the 1H chart’s time-frame
Daily Forex Analysis – May 4, 2012
by forexcycle.com USDJPY Analysis. USDJPY remains in downtrend from 84.17, the price action from 79.63 is treated as consolidation of the downtrend. Resistance is at the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, as long as the channel resistance holds, downtrend could be expected to resume, and another fall to 79.00 is still possible.
WTI Crude Oil Slides Below Rising Trendline
Forex Technical Update WTI Crude Oil daily 5/4/2012 After the failed attempt to break above a declining trendline, WTI crude oil fell sharply. In 3 daily candles the market wiped out gains since almost 3 weekly sessions ago. The daily chart shows the latest daily candle sliding below a rising trendline. This strong breakout suggests there is further correction to WTI crude oil’s rally since Oct
Investors Already Positioning for Euro Breakdown; We Remain Sidelined
While we have seen no clear break of the 1.3000-1.3500 range that has defined this market from much of 2012, market participants are starting to prepare for a 1.3000 breach…
EUR/NOK Remains Well Supported Above 7.50; Look to Buy
A daily overview of technical developments in the regional currencies. Take a look inside for the latest scoop on the Norwegian Krone and Swedish Krona.
