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Currencies AUD Top Trade Idea For August 28th, 2014 – AUDUSD

audusddaily

For the audusd pair there is still trouble ahead as the path of least resistance seems to be still to the downside and not the upside like recent price action might indicate.

The thing is that the pair is consolidating for the last 5 months around 0.95 and 0.9300 levels, so 200 pips range that tells everything about what summer trading means.

However, things are about to change as we’re getting closer to the Fed ending the tapering and probably with the Fed rising the rates sooner than expected.

The unemployment rates in the two countries, the benchmark for an economy that is moving in the right direction, seem to be divergent. While in Australia we’ve recently seen biggest unemployment in the last 12 years, the US is approaching full employment as the current 6.1% is 14 months ahead of the Fed’s projections.

Only this simple fundamental difference is enough to push the currency lower for the medium/long term, not to mention the technical picture.

After the pair fell out of that contracting triangle that ended around 1.05 area, a clear five waves structure started, shaping up a beautiful impulsive move for wave a of a zigzag. The b wave seems to be completed as well, and now the c wave is mandatory to break the lows in the previous wave a blue, as this is a must in any zigzag.

Hence, our recommendation to stay short for the 0.8880 area is quite a shy target, but nevertheless, one that most likely will come to fruition.

About Mircea Vasiu

capital properties fxMircea Vasiu has an MBA in International Business from an American University, graduating Magna Cum Laudae. He has been a professional trader for the last 8 years and is involved in various educational projects for different financial companies. He also runs a trading signal for the currency markets at www.capitalpropertiesfx.com.

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