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Pound May Weaken on UK CPI, Euro to Look Past PMI Data

Talking Points: US Dollar Corrected Lower in Overnight Trade, Loonie in the Lead Ruble Bounce on Surprise Russia Interest Rate Hike Unlikely to Last UK CPI May Weigh on British Pound, Euro to Look Past PMI Data The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having edged higher in the preceding 24 hours. The Canadian […]

USDCAD upside means resistance could be tested again

The USDCAD pair seems to have found support upon a near term fibonacci retracement, leading to some buying coming into the market today. However, with a major resistance trendline within reach, it means we could either see another bout of selling soon or else a highly notable upside breakout. On the weekly timeframe, there is […]

Week in FX Americas – BoC’s Poloz to Stay the Course

Central banks remain “front and centre” Loonie penalized by crude prices 25% fall in oil prices adds +0.3% to U.S GDP Demons of deflation persist Friday’s surprising +2.8% annualized Canadian gross domestic product (GDP) gain in the third quarter is unlikely to persuade Governor Stephen Poloz at the Bank of Canada (BoC) to change course […]

A Snapshot of Central Bank Thinking

Rate divergence to continue European Central Bank Credibility on the Line Inflation Stymies the Bank of Russia The Fed’s Game of Show and Tell Some of the main central banks continue to eye handcuffing investors to a low rate environment throughout the first half of 2015. The current exception to the loose monetary policy regime […]

USDCAD finds moving average support

The USDCAD pair finally broke below a major support level on Friday, yet with a major moving average now limiting further downside, it will be interesting to see how the pair reacts between these two key levels as a means to gauge the direction in coming weeks. The weekly chart below shows that the pair […]

USDCAD tests support level amid uptrend

The USDCAD pair has returned to a major support level, following the engagement of a resistance level two weeks ago. Following this, it will be key to see how the pair resolves the current region of uncertainty to then gauge the direction for the coming weeks. The weekly chart below shows the pair has found […]

Week in FX Americas – Bullard and G20 Beat Down Dollar

U.S Retail Sales provided a brief dollar “bid” Bullard and G20 makes investors nervous Modest market participation provides choppy FX session The near global equity meltdown last month (later reversed) was not able to seriously damage Friday’s U.S. retail sales report for October. Overall, retail sales rose +0.3% on the month and managed to just […]

USDCAD in triangle to determine medium term direction

The USDCAD pair has pulled back somewhat over the past week or so, following resistance found upon both a fibonacci expansion and long term ascending trend-line. However, with a major level of support holding price up, the resolution of this current range is going to provide me with a better idea of the medium term […]

Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach

Talking Points: Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach Euro Drops after Draghi Reiterates Stimulus Commitment British Pound Most Fundamentally At-Risk Currency Next Week Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach While many of the top financial headlines are cheering the fresh record highs for US equities, […]

Falling Oil Prices to Punish the Loonie

Forex traders live for volatility. Significant asset price moves provide for more market opportunities. Currency traders do not care what direction prices move, so long as they move. This is a significant week when it comes to scheduled economic events with three major central banks making statements and the release of monthly U.S. jobs data. […]

Top Trade Idea For October 29th, 2014 – AUD/CAD

With the markets fully focused on the outcome of the FOMC tonight, it may be best to avoid looking at assets which will be directly impacted by the Fed’s decision. In this regard, one currency pair that has caught my eye is the AUD/CAD, which could be on the verge of resuming its downward trend. […]

Major Event Risk Ahead for US Dollar – Levels to Watch

Talking Points: Major event risk ahead for US Dollar – two high risk events today. USDCAD susceptible, AUDUSD requires patience. October Forex Seasonality Foretells End of Seasonal USD Weakness The US Dollar has been able to retrace about half of its losses from its October highs, but it’s not out of the woods just yet. […]

Bullish USDCAD breaks above major resistance level

The USDCAD pair has broken above a major resistance level of 1.13, following the continuation of the uptrend that has been in place since 2011. This follows continued downside in the price of oil, as the Canadian dollar suffers and with today’s break and the likeliness of further losses in oil along with today’s break […]

Top Trade Idea for October 8th , 2014 – USD/CAD

We focused in on the prospects for USDCAD last week, arguing that bulls could look to target the 5-year high at 1.1275 based on the strong technical and fundamental backdrop (see “USDCAD: Up, Up, and Away!” for more). As it turns out, Friday’s strong Non-Farm Payroll report served as the catalyst to drive the pair […]

Week in FX Americas – U.S. Dollar Gets Green Light after Jobs Report

U.S. unemployment rate plummets Fed’s doves and hawks find solace in report Yellen to focus on ‘slack’ in hourly earnings The U.S. dollar ends the week once again the dominant currency. An anemic European Central Bank (ECB) meet and press conference temporarily provided a EUR short squeeze just shy of the weekly highs (€1.2714) on […]

Commodity Dollars Soar as Risk Trends Gyrate Before ECB, NFP Results

Talking Points: Commodity Dollars Stage Recovery as Risk Appetite Firms Before ECB, NFP Euro to Resume Decline on Strong ECB Stimulus Pledge, Rebound Otherwise See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The sentiment-linked Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed against their leading counterparts in overnight trading hours. The Kiwi […]

Top Trade Idea For October 2nd, 2014 – AUDCAD

The audcad cross is one of the most difficult to be traded and the usual caveat for trading a cross pair is valid here too: it should not travel that much when compared with majors. That is wrong. This cross just broke a contracting triangle on the bigger time frame and the b-d trend line […]

Dollar’s Current Bull Leg Strongest since Rally Through Crisis

Talking Points: Dollar’s Current Bull Leg Strongest since Rally Through Crisis Euro Stumbles as Inflation Data Raises the Stakes for ECB Thursday Japanese Yen: Japan Inc Says Concerned Over Low Currency Dollar’s Current Bull Leg Strongest since Rally Through Crisis With Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) matched its run […]

EUR Strangled by Option Interest

Since the Scottish sovereignty referendum, it has been difficult to get overly excited about forex, especially with the EUR’s price action confined to a relatively tight trading range. The single unit’s recent moves have been telegraphed, influenced mostly by option-related deals and a few uninspiring purchasing managers’ indexes. European bourses seem to be taking a […]

Silver Breakdown Hints at USD Turning Point; EUR/USD, USD/CAD Not Done

Talking Points: Silver/XAGUSD fall through support signals turning point. EURUSD may push lower again; USDCAD eyes inv H&S. Have a bullish (or bearish) bias on the US Dollar, but don’t know which pair to use? Use a USD currency basket. During August and early-September, the rise of US Treasury yields neatly coincided with an already-bullish […]

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