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USD Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast

Talking Points: Dollar Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast Euro Finds Too Little Traction, Too Late Yen Crosses Advance after BoJ Downgrades Growth Assessment Dollar Crawls to Fresh Five-Year High as Markets Focus on Rate Contrast A drain in liquidity often translates into a moderation in heavy exposure or one-sided […]

The Three Things Fueling FX Market Volatility Throughout 2015

The dearth of currency market volatility in 2014 that sank to historic lows last summer appears to be consigned to history. Put simply, there are too many economic and geopolitical variables that erupted over the latter half of the year that ignited the FX market, and those themes will carry over into 2015. The U.S. […]

Week in FX – Patient Fed Soothes Jittery Markets

Fed’s message brings season tidings BoJ Keeps Status Quo Abe’s cabinet to approve stimulus soon Market makes a beeline for the ‘turn’ Capital markets are poised to fall silent as the holidays are about to begin in earnest. It’s in hot pursuit of the broad-based risk-on rally that has given U.S. equities their biggest two-day […]

Swiss Franc Sinks as SNB Surprises with Negative Interest Rates

Talking Points: Swiss Franc Sank After SNB Unexpectedly Unveiled Negative Interest Rates US Dollar May Turn Lower as Markets Rethink FOMC Outcome Implications See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The Swiss Franc slumped after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly dropped interest rates into negative territory at -0.25 percent. The […]

FOMC Preview and Trade Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD

Talking Points: EURUSD breaks uptrend from December 9 low. USDJPY back to neckline of potential top.. December forex seasonality foresaw a modestly weaker Euro. As fear and tumult rage on in emerging market currencies, one must not forget the headline event of the week: the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting of 2014. Undoubtedly, market participants […]

Top Trade Idea For December 17th, 2014 – GBP/USD

As strange as it sounds, the tone of trade for the rest of the week, and perhaps even the rest of the year, could hinge on just two words. The Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy statement and summary of economic projections at 2:00pm ET (19:00 GMT), followed by the press conference with Fed […]

Pound May Weaken on UK CPI, Euro to Look Past PMI Data

Talking Points: US Dollar Corrected Lower in Overnight Trade, Loonie in the Lead Ruble Bounce on Surprise Russia Interest Rate Hike Unlikely to Last UK CPI May Weigh on British Pound, Euro to Look Past PMI Data The US Dollar corrected lower in overnight trade having edged higher in the preceding 24 hours. The Canadian […]

Top Trade Idea For December 16th, 2014 – EUR/GBP

In today’s analysis we will take a look at EURGBP which is in downtrend actually since 2008 as showing on the weekly chart below. On that count we are looking at a double zigzag, now with wave C) in progress that can complete wave (Y) sometime next year. But notice that pair for now still […]

ST Technicals Offer Moment of Reflection in EUR-crosses

Talking Points: EURUSD now in symmetrical triangle as it grapples with wedge. EURAUD rising channel may come into question below 1.4972. December forex seasonality foresaw a modestly weaker Euro. Short-term technicals may be at odds with long-term perspectives at present moment, putting many of the EUR-crosses on watch for some volatility over the next few […]

Week in FX – Risk Steadies Dollar Ahead of Elections and FOMC

Crude prices to continue to suffer Japan’s Abe a winning cert on Sunday? No U.S inflation pressures along supply chain More Central Banks to apply pressure next week Investors have just completed navigating through a week that was not for the fainthearted. The market was peppered with news of new record lows for crude (West […]

Top Trade Idea For December 11th, 2014 – EURGBP

Against all odds as it may seem, I am really bullish the Euro as a whole and eurgbp in particular even after today’s TLTRO’s in Europe were released. The fundamental picture doesn’t look pretty for the euro but, despite that, technical picture is quite bullish. The cross here has been falling in a beautiful waterfall […]

Week in FX – U.S and Canada Moving in Opposite Directions

U.S on course for jobs record Dollar goes “walkabout” ahead of holiday’s Canada takes the wrong route Loonie at a loss on jobs report Friday delivered a nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report that blew away the critics, conspiracy theorists, and jittery investors in one fell swoop. U.S. employers ramped up hiring in November, continuing a stretch […]

Dollar, Yen Torn Between US Jobs Data and Year-End Capital Flows

Talking Points: US Dollar Needs Outsized Beat on Payrolls Print to Refuel Upward Drive Yen May Rise After Overnight Drop on Year-End Flows After NFP Report German Factory Orders, Eurozone GDP Revision Unlikely to Stir the Euro A relatively muted economic calendar in European trading hours puts the spotlight on US Employment figures. The report […]

Top Trade Idea For December 5th, 2014 – GBP/USD

Along with inflation, the US jobs number is the key driver of Fed monetary policy. This of course makes the jobs number a key driver for $US exchange rates. Heading into the number, a common technique for chart based traders is to look for situations that might trigger a trade setup if the jobs number […]

Draghi and ECB Have A Minimum Requirement

BoE non-event risk in pipeline Draghi’s headaches persist What’s the ECB’s minimum requirement? EUR expectations if disappointed The threat of global central bank action is managing to keep the various assets classes moving. Whether it’s the Central Bank of Russia (tighter monetary policy next week?), the People’s Bank of China (easing of monetary policy?), the […]

Trade Setups in EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Ahead of ECB

Talking Points: EURUSD holds lows ahead of last ECB meeting of 2014. EURGBP moves into lower half of symmetrical triangle. See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Due to incoming inflation data and persistently falling inflation expectations, policymakers have found it necessary to keep the door open for sovereign QE, despite the […]

US Dollar May Look Past Conflicting Data, Rise on Fed Beige Book

Talking Points: Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Drop After Disappointing Australian 3Q GDP Report British Pound Looks to Composite PMI Data to Inform BOE Policy Outlook US Dollar May Rise as Upbeat Fed Beige Book Keeps Rate Hike Bets Alive The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent, following a disappointing GDP […]

US Dollar, Pound May Weaken if Soft News-Flow Dents Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points: Aussie Dollar Sinks on Chinese Deposit Insurance Scheme, Soft PMI Report British Pound May Decline as Weak News-Flow Undermines BOE Outlook US Dollar Vulnerable if ISM Pullback Weighs on Fed Rate Hike Speculation The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.8 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The […]

Week in FX Europe — No Thanksgiving for OPEC

OPEC punishes energy prices Russia to feel the squeeze Deflation demons awake on OPEC decision Look out for gold this weekend Energy prices continue to make records. Today, OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is back calling the shots, and putting the squeeze on global crude producers, commodity currencies, trade balances and Russia […]

EUR/USD Rebound Post-EZ CPI a Preview for ECB Next Week?

Talking Points: EURUSD puts in another higher low on H4. USDOLLAR Index can’t break 11,372 high. See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. Inflation expectations remain an issue headed into the final ECB policy meeting of the year next week, which is why the Euro hasn’t been able to mount a full-scale […]

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