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A Snapshot of Central Bank Thinking

Rate divergence to continue European Central Bank Credibility on the Line Inflation Stymies the Bank of Russia The Fed’s Game of Show and Tell Some of the main central banks continue to eye handcuffing investors to a low rate environment throughout the first half of 2015. The current exception to the loose monetary policy regime […]

GBPJPY ascending triangle looking bullish

The GBPJPY pair is currently trading within an ascending triangle formation, following a major round of buying in the past month and a half. Given both the technical and fundamental outlook, I expect to see the pair break out to the upside for a continuation higher. The daily chart shows that the pair is currently […]

Japanese Yen May Rise as Year-End Capital Flows Begin to Emerge

Talking Points: Japanese Yen May See Recovery as Year-End Capital Flows Start to Emerge British Pound Looks to 3Q GDP Revision to Inform BOE Rate Hike Outlook US Dollar May Rise on Fed Tightening Bets if News-Flow Proves Supportive Seasonal factors may increasingly factor into price action as the on-coming Thanksgiving holiday in the US […]

Top Trade Idea For November 24th, 2014 – GBP/NZD

Since late September, GBP/NZD (‘the pound’ against the New Zealand dollar) has fallen 1400 pips. We feel that this trend will continue and will discuss a trade for expected move lower. The recent move higher provides an opportunity to trade it short. This eight-hour GBP/NZD chart starts at the early November 2014 high of 2.0812 […]

Week in FX Europe – Draghi Hands Ammo to Euro Bear

Draghi’s Dovish Remarks Suffocate EUR Market expects ECB to announce new measures in December Greater Euro/U.S rate divergence needs to be priced The euro bear got a subtle hint yesterday to consider “not” booking any EUR profits just yet, all because the EUR bull happened to be blinded by flash purchasing mangers’ index (PMI) numbers. […]

EUR Bull Blinded by Flash Numbers

Fed reinforces “normalization” China flash manufacturing PMI dips to 6-month low Weak Flash numbers has EUR hobbling Federal Reserve announcements usually end up having the largest market impact, and yesterday’s release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s October meeting minutes were not to be the exception. However, the data ended up being a “non-event” as […]

USDOLLAR Continuation as EUR/USD, GBP/USD Fail at Resistance

Talking Points: USDOLLAR continues broadly higher thanks to AUD, JPY. EUR/USD, GBP/USD channels/flags near breaking points. See the ‘high’ importance events on the DailyFX Economic Calendar. The FOMC minutes yesterday spurred the USDOLLAR Index’s push to fresh 2014 highs, but it will take more than words to keep the greenback’s bull trend going. One of […]

Top Trade Idea For November 20st, 2014 – EURGBP

This week I would like to take a look at the eurgbp pair as from my point of view there is still room to go to the upside and therefore would favor a move above 0.81, having 0.8104 and 0.8194 targets while 0.7900 would be the invalidation level. The thing is that the 0.800 level […]

Will FOMC Minutes Stray from the Beaten Path?

FOMC expected to make some noise “Old Lady” sets sterling alight BoJ attempting to save face In today’s economic climate, central banks are never too far away from the heart of any forex move, and again overnight has been no exception. Monetary policy guidance, economic reassessment, and policymakers’ outright voting results are influencing forex price […]

US Dollar Gains as Foreign Demand Hits Record, FOMC Minutes on Tap

Talking Points: US Dollar Gains on FOMC Minutes Pre-Positioning, Supportive TICs Data Pound May Fall if BOE Minutes Reveal Hawks Abandoned Rate Hike Votes See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. […]

Dollar Traders Whether FOMC Minutes Will Keep the March Towards Hikes

Talking Points: Dollar Traders Whether FOMC Minutes Will Keep the March Towards Hikes British Pound Fails to Regain Traction after CPI Uptick Yen Crosses Steady after Snap Election Call, Will the BoJ Help Soothe Uncertainty? Dollar Traders Whether FOMC Minutes Will Keep the March Towards Hikes The Dollar put in for a mixed session Tuesday […]

Top Trade Idea For November 18th, 2014 – GBP/USD

Today we will take a look at GBPUSD, pair that has been the weakest last week when pair lost nearly 300 pips. On daily chart we see a nice bearish swigs since start of this summer with clear lower lows and lower highs formation so we definitely want to stay in the direction with a […]

GBPJPY hits 50 fib & shows potential for pullback

The GBPJPY pair has been consolidating between the 181 and 184 levels over the past fortnight, following engagement with the 50% retracement of the 2008 highs to 2011 lows. This could be a major level for a retracement and given the respect clearly shown by the last two weeks price action, it would not be […]

Week in FX Europe – Sterling Bulls Burned by Carney

Pound pummeled by bears’ license to roam U.K.’s first rate hike delayed Political uncertainty weighs on pound The sterling bear got a license to roam after Governor Mark Carney at the Bank of England (BoE) delivered some dovish expectations in the most recent Quarterly Inflation Report released midweek. The pound has hit a multiyear low […]

British Pound Traders Brace for Volatility from BoE Report

Talking Points: Dollar Drops as FX Volatility, Rate Forecasts Offset British Pound Traders Brace for Volatility from BoE Report Yen Crosses Rally as Market Speculates on Election, Tax Hike Delay Dollar Drops as FX Volatility, Rate Forecasts Offset The US Dollar took a modest spill versus most of its major counterparts this past session as […]

U.S. Dollar Insuppressible

It’s near impossible to keep a good thing down and the U.S. dollar is not exempt from that fact, having found its way again after a somewhat disappointing non-farm payroll (NFP) report last Friday. Today’s partial market holiday in the U.S., Canada, and France could add further spice to an already thin market. On a […]

Pound at Risk as BOE Inflation Report Threatens Dovish Tone Shift

Talking Points: British Pound Vulnerable if BOE Inflation Report Marks Dovish Tone Shift NZ Dollar Gained as RBNZ Rhetoric Proved Supportive for Rates Outlook See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The release of the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report is in focus in European trading hours. The publication […]

Week in FX Europe – ECB Signals more Stimulus in the Pipeline

Draghi reaffirms he is in charge ECB preps to increase balance sheet to 2012 levels NFP expected to orchestrate EUR’s downfall This week’s ECB press conference explained away some of the markets concerns, especially those pertaining to President Draghi’s leadership. Investors were seeking guarantees that Draghi is still in control, and remains the leader to […]

Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach

Talking Points: Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach Euro Drops after Draghi Reiterates Stimulus Commitment British Pound Most Fundamentally At-Risk Currency Next Week Dollar Rallies to More than Five Year High as Payrolls Approach While many of the top financial headlines are cheering the fresh record highs for US equities, […]

With No ECB Surprise Expected, Where Is the EUR to Go?

Finally, the market is atop of the two major market event risks this week: this morning’s European Central Bank (ECB) press conference with President Mario Draghi (at 13:30 GMT), and tomorrow’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) details. Investors are expected to get the biggest bang for their buck from tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report rather than today’s […]

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