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Week In FX Europe – Russia Has Euro Stocks Offside

Europe closes on “wrong side of right” EUR’s weakening stride intact German 10-year Bund trade at +0.97% Ms. Yellen has come and gone and her labor and rate thoughts will be deciphered in greater detail after the weekend. The European session is closing on the “wrong side of right” as fresh signs of escalation to […]

Trade Idea For August 22nd ,2014 -GBP/CAD

After several months of sideways drift, the pound now has the potential to break down against the Canadian Dollar. Comments by Mr. Carney and well behaved UK inflation have recently exerted downward pressure. My trade idea is to sell on a clear break below the 200 day moving average looking for a deeper correction of […]

Will Jackson Hole Be A Currency Event?

There’s chatter in the market that the two-day central bank symposium getting underway in Jackson Hole, Wyo., today could be a currency event, another type of Plaza Accord. Up until now, the market had been solely on the lookout for any hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s presentation at the forum tomorrow to […]

EUR/USD Slide Continues but EUR Weakness Elsewhere Questionable

Talking Points: EURUSD cracks to fresh yearly lows at 1.3241. USDCHF has resumed its move towards 0.9160/89. US Dollar strength in August shouldn’t surprise – it’s a seasonally strong month. EURUSD and USDCHF are back in tandem, and while that mean a bit more EURUSD weakness as USDCHF tries for $0.9160, that doesn’t mean that […]

Will BoE Dissenters Change Sterling’s Direction?

Currently, the central banker remains at the core for most forex moves. Governor Glenn Stevens at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is trying hard to jawbone the Aussie dollar lower. While the “policy chameleon” — Governor Mark Carney at the Bank of England (BoE) — confused investors with hawkish remarks last weekend, following dovish […]

Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks

Talking Points: Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks British Pound Surprised by BoE Hawks, But Doesn’t Turn Euro Traders Ready for Another Round of Economic Data Dollar Rally Forces EURUSD and USDJPY Breaks Between two days of key event risk, it seemed that the US Dollar was due a period of moderation. However, this […]

Sterling Bulls Back down While EUR Bear Waits

The forex markets require a diverging interest rate policy among the Group of Seven economies for sustainable volatility. In 2014, geopolitical risk has been regionally contained and risk-on or -off trading strategies have been orderly executed, regardless if it has been influenced by events in Russia-Ukraine, Gaza, Syria or Iraq. Various individuals will argue that […]

Dollar Needs Inflation to Sustain Break from Equities, Yields

Talking Points: Dollar Needs Inflation to Sustain Break from Equities, Yields British Pound Faces Another Wave of Potential Volatility with CPI New Zealand Dollar Drops as Inflation Readings Further Cut Rate Forecast Dollar Needs Inflation to Sustain Break from Equities, Yields The Dollar opened the new trading week with a mixed performance. Between modest gains […]

Governor Carney’s Chameleon Efforts Lift GBP

Risk-on and -off trading remains the order of the day at least until the investor is convinced that the geopolitical landscape has changed for the better. If one eliminates geopolitical aggressive pricing actions from the equation then investors are left dealing with tenuous global growth to price. In a week stacked with central bank meetings […]

British Pound Gains as Carney Talks Up Interest Rate Hike Timeline

Talking Points: British Pound Stronger as BOE Governor Carney Talks Up Rate Hike Bets Yen May Decline as Aussie and NZ Dollars Rise on Firming Risk Appetite See Economic News Releases on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App The British Pound outperformed to start the trading week, rising as much as 0.3 percent on […]

Week in FX Europe – the Euro Needs a Catalyst

Lower for longer rates policy remains intact Global bourses eke out a weekly win Periphery debt outperforms Bunds Weak global data has the market again pricing the lower-for-longer mantra mostly in play by the main central banks. Investors this week were exposed to a multitude of weaker economic reports from Japan to Europe and even […]

Short-EUR Position Plays Require Patience

New dynamics are now entering the fray. Prior to this week, capital markets were beginning to buy into the notion the Bank of England (BoE) would initiate a rate hike as early as the fourth quarter. A day and a couple of reports later, the market is focusing on the need for further stimulus to […]

GBP Flees the Charging Bulls

Volatility in the forex market space has been in short supply throughout this year. If anything, it has been regionally contained by central bank policies despite the uptick in both geopolitical and economic event risks. Sustainable forex volatility will only occur with greater Group of 10 rate divergence, or in other words, varying degrees of […]

GBPCHF hits major support level in bearish move

The GBPCHF pair has been moving towards the downside over the past two weeks following the breakout of a strong ascending channel formation. This has continued apace today following the sell-off inspired by events at the BoE. The rejection of the upper threshold of the current descending wedge also coincided with the 50% retracement. This […]

British Pound Volatility Risk High as BoE Updates Rate Outlook

Talking Points: Dollar Weighs Cross Currents Against Domestic Data British Pound Volatility Risk High as BoE Updates Rate Outlook Euro: Investor Sentiment Collapses, Will Stalled Growth Complete the Picture? Dollar Weighs Cross Currents Against Domestic Data An attempt by the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) to break free of its two-week range […]

EUR’s Breakdown Contained by Options and GDP

Geopolitical concerns are not going away; they are trying to move to the background, while remaining within easy reach. The 18-member single unit has been negatively tied to both weaker corporate earnings and economic data in recent weeks. The morning’s European focus has been on German economic sentiment. With Russian actions continuing to weigh on […]

Forex Looking For Its Next Clue

Modest risk is being applied across the various asset classes, with investors believing that major political concerns that drove stocks lower, and bond prices and the dollar higher last week have abated. The market continues to distinguish between the ‘humanitarian crises’ in Gaza and Iraq and the Ukraine conflict, which has far more potential to […]

Will GBPJPY upside be shortlived?

The GBPJPY pair has been selling off in the past week following a major downside break. A gap open today has shown a more bullish start to the week. However, is this likely to spark a more protracted resurgence or will such strength be shortlived? 1. Previous triangle breakout led to new found support, bringing […]

US Dollar Coils for Next Leg – Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Talking Points: EURUSD remains bearish sub-1.3475. GBPUSD could spill into 1.6700, USDCHF flags for 0.9160/89. August forex seasonality in QE era supports a stronger US Dollar. Although FX market volume and volatility are still mostly uncomfortably low for breakout and momentum traders, the recent flurry in activity during the first week of August may be […]

Week in FX Europe – Few Surprises, More Questions

ECB continues its dovish, dulcet tone Investors seek BoE timing clues next week No fast-forwarding QE for Draghi Nowadays it’s in a central bank’s DNA to jawbone a currency lower. If it’s not Governor Glenn Stevens at the Reserve Bank of Australia, then it’s the European Central Bank’s (ECB) President Mario Draghi. There were no […]

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